Throughout the month of October, CollegeBasketballTalk will be rolling out our previews for the 2012-2013 season. Check back at 9 a.m. and just after lunch every day, Monday-Friday, for a new preview item.
To browse through the preview posts we’ve already published, click here. To look at the rest of the Top 25, click here. For a schedule of our previews for the month, click here.
Last Season: 26-9, 9-5 MWC (3rd); Lost in the Opening Round of the NCAA tournament to Colorado
Head Coach: Dave Rice
Key Losses: Chace Stanback, Oscar Bellfield, Brice Massamba
Newcomers: Anthony Bennett, Katin Reinhardt, Daquan Cook, Demetris Morant, Savon Goodman, Khem Birch (transfer), Bryce Jones (transfer)
– G: Anthony Marshall, Sr.
– G: Justin Hawkins, Sr.
– F: Mike Moser, Jr.
– F: Anthony Bennett, Fr.
– C: Khem Birch, So.
– Bench: Bryce Dejean-Jones, So.; Katin Reinhardt, Fr.; Savon Goodman, Fr.; Carlos Lopez, Jr.; Quintrell Thomas, Sr.
Outlook: From a talent perspective, UNLV has enough pieces on their roster to legitimately warrant consideration as a Final Four contender heading into the 2012-2013 season.
Their front line is as good an any in the country. It starts with Mike Moser, who was named to the NBCSports.com Preseason All-American Second Team. At 6-foot-9, Moser is one of the most talented combo-forwards in the country. After redshirting the 2010-2011 season following his transfer from UCLA, Moser not only averaged a double-double — 14.0 points and 10.5 boards — while collecting team-highs of 68 steals and 35 blocks on the year, he also showed off his dangerous, albeit inconsistent, three-point range.
By the time conference play rolls around, Moser will be joined in the front court by two newcomers — Anthony Bennett and Khem Birch. Bennett has a similar skill set to Moser in that he’s a double-double threat with three-point range. Where their game differs is in their physical traits. Bennett, who was a top ten recruit that UNLV beat out, among others, Kentucky to land, is a burly, 6-foot-8 and a load on the block. Moser is more perimeter oriented on the offensive end. Like Bennett, Birch was a top ten recruit in the Class of 2011, landing with UNLV after transferring out of Pitt last winter.
How good is UNLV’s front line? UConn transfer Roscoe Smith, who has to redshirt this season, was almost considered overkill when he committed to the Rebels. Kansas transfer Quintrell Thomas, junior big man Carlos Lopez and top 75 recruit Savon Goodman will all struggle to find minutes. Rice has more options in his front court rotation this season than he has a use for.
The back court has plenty of talent as well. Anthony Marshall and Justin Hawkins will be the senior leaders. Where Hawkins is a defensive stalwart, Marshall will be the guy who has the ball in his hands the majority of the time. He’s a terrific penetrator and an athletic finisher around the basket, but his decision-making — shot selection, turnovers, over-penetration — is a bit of a concern. Like Hawkins, Marshall is an excellent defender.
Rice will have a couple of quality options on his bench as well. USC transfer Bryce Dejean-Jones entered college with the reputation of being a quality scorer on the wing, but it will take him time to work his way into the rotation as he battles a broken hand. The guy to keep an eye on may end up being freshman Katin Reinhardt, a 6-foot-5, top 50 scoring guard out of Mater Dei High School. Reinhardt’s a terrific shooter with a bit of flair to his game; he’ll make a few people look silly with his handle and passing ability.
I have concerns with this group, however, which is why we’re probably ranking them slightly lower than other publications.
For starters, I’m not convinced that Moser is going to be able to make the transition to playing on the perimeter full-time. When UNLV plays San Diego State, he’ll be matched up with Jamaal Franklin. When they play New Mexico, he’ll be guarding Tony Snell or, at times, maybe even Demetrius Walker or Kendell Williams. Is that a favorable matchup for UNLV on the defensive end? Will the Rebels have an advantage there is Moser isn’t on the block, utilizing his size?
That leads into one of the other issues with this group: who gets the minutes? Moser will probably be playing 30 minutes every night, and if Bennett is as good as advertised, he will be as well. Will Lopez be ok if he loses his starting spot to a transfer (Birch) in the middle of the season? Will Thomas, a guy that played at Kansas, be alright with becoming the fourth or fifth post player in the rotation? What happens to Goodman’s attitude if his most important minutes this season are on the practice court? Will Jones, who caused his fair share of trouble while at USC, be OK if he finds himself buried behind Marshall, Hawkins and Reinhardt? It’s better to have too much talent than not enough talent, but it takes a certain kind of coaching skill to keep everyone on an overloaded roster happy.
But the biggest concern that I have for this UNLV team is that I’m just not positive that they are going to blend together the way that Rebel fans believe. One of the reasons that UNLV underperformed last season was that they had some issues with shot selection (selfishness) and decision-making (too many turnovers). And as much as I love Anthony Marshall’s game — and I do — I am not convinced that he is the kind of point guard that settle for simply being a distributor. He can make plays off the dribble and get shots for his teammates, but the ball was in his hands far too much on the offensive end last season. Can he simply be a facilitator?
And it should needs to be noted that simply adding a couple of talented transfers and freshmen won’t automatically make UNLV capable of winning on the road.
Predictions?: I don’t think any of those concerns are unfair, but they also aren’t a guarantee. And even if they are, this group still has enough talent to win a lot of games even if they aren’t maximizing their potential. The Mountain West is going to be strong this season, especially at the top, so even if everything plays out to a best case scenario, the idea of UNLV doing anything more than fighting, tooth and nail, to finish at the top of the MWC is out of the question. My best guess? They’ll finish first or second in the conference with around four losses, which will be enough for the Rebels to earn a four or a five seed in the NCAA tournament.
Rob Dauster is the editor of the college basketball website Ballin’ is a Habit. You can find him on twitter @robdauster.