Sorting kenpom, Sagarin ratings from pre-tourney numbers


Here’s a snapshot of the 20 teams atop’s ratings. As you can see, 12 are still playing in the tournament, including the top seven. The four outside of the top 20? Cincinnati (25), N.C. State (36), Xavier (49) and Ohio (63).

But as any kenpom user knows, those are updated ratings that reflect how those teams played during the first rounds of the NCAA tournament.

How about the pre-tournament rankings? How do those compare?

I wrote down those pre-tourney kenpom and Sagarin ratings (only predictor, though) for every team. It was mostly to help research bracket picks – thus the predictor model, which has a better record for outcomes than Sagarin’s combined rating – but it makes for interesting fodder now. (Blue numbers are kenpom; red are Sagarin.)

(Click here for a larger version)


If that bracket’s too muddy to decipher, try the table to the right.

source:  The first two columns are pre-tournament, the second two are after the first two games. (Yes, I forgot to write down Ohio’s pre-tourney Sagarin numbers. Sorry.)

Well, we’re still on track for a Kentucky-Ohio State showdown.

Florida made a huge jump thanks to a couple of massive wins, but the only real jumps were made by the bottom four teams, which is what you’d expect. Cincy, NC State, Xavier and Ohio all made big jumps, though the Xavier leap in the kenpom numbers are a little surprising. Didn’t realize the Musketeers played that well.

But bottom line, the best teams all won. Not sure that’s going to change this week, either.

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