I understand why people are picking against third-seeded Georgetown in their opening round matchup with Belmont, the 14 seed in Midwest Region.
Vanderbilt gets all the negative publicity when it comes to early exits from the tournament, but Georgetown has been just as guilty of late. In 2011, the sixth-seeded Hoyas were VCU’s second victim. The year before that, Georgetown lost in the first round to No. 14 seed Ohio. In 2009, Georgetown pulled a Nas and “fell from top ten to not mentioned at all“, missing the NCAA Tournament and finding themselves relegated to the NIT. (Their bodyguard’s ‘Oochie Wally’ verse wasn’t better, however.)
Georgetown actually won a game in 2008, making it to the second round before falling victim to the Davidson Fighting Steph Curry’s, but the fact remains that in three of the last four years, Georgetown has been knocked out of the tournament early via the mid-major upset. The other year they didn’t even make the tournament.
Sounds a lot like Vanderbilt, doesn’t it?
Put all that together — there’s not a single player on the Georgetown roster that has ever won an NCAA Tournament game — and throw in the fact that Belmont is a very good basketball team, and its it seems like an easy upset to pick.
But it’s not.
I have the utmost respect for this Belmont basketball team. I’ve seen them in person. I know what this team is capable of and what they want to do on the court. The Bruins are a very good three-point shooting team, and they shoot a lot of them. They also like to push tempo, using full-court pressure to force turnovers and speed up the game. They do it well; it’s why they won the Atlantic Sun.
But Georgetown is the best team in the country when it comes to defending the three-point line. Their perimeter defenders are long and athletic. They can play man-to-man or a 2-3 zone. When they have Jason Clark, Greg Whittington, Otto Porter and Hollis Thompson on the floor together, they become so difficult to score against because of how versatile those four on that end of the floor.
Belmont is not turning teams over as much as they have in the past, either, which means that the Bruins are not going to be able to take advantage of the fact that Georgetown lacks a pure point guard.
I want to pick Belmont to win a game in the tournament. I do. There is a reason this team is currently 23rd in Kenpom’s rankings.
But in the NCAA Tournament, matchups make the battle. And this just isn’t a good matchup for Belmont.