Another week closer to Selection Sunday and Seton Hall and West Virginia are the week’s biggest movers. Michigan State and Indiana also climb, anchoring 2-seeds in the East (Indiana) and Midwest (Michigan State). Our No. 1 seeds remain the same: Syracuse, Kentucky, North Carolina, and Ohio State. Baylor would be next in line.
The bracket is still very fluid, and there’s a fine line between the final few teams selected and those among the first teams out. One of the biggest factors used this week in determining those final spots was non-conference strength-of-schedule and overall strength-of-schedule. So if you’re wondering why a team like Cincinnati remains out look no further than a non-conference SOS that ranks No. 317 - among the bottom 25 in college hoops. Other teams with that issue include Oregon State (No. 325) and Wyoming (No. 318).
The Pac-12 retains three teams this week but none higher than a 10-seed: Stanford. Arizona is among our Last 5 teams in. Could either of those teams or Cal win games in the NCAA tournament? Absolutely. Washington is very talented, too. But the Huskies - like its other Pac-12 team members - will have to make the Field of 68 first.
The Big Ten remains the conference leader (No. 1 in the RPI) and has eight teams in the bracket today. Minnesota (now 0-4 in the Big 10) drops out; and Northwestern is just one line on the s-curve above the play-in games in Dayton. That’s largely due to an early win over Seton Hall and no bad losses. That said, the Wildcats will not make the NCAAs if they continue to lose home games.
UPDATED: Monday, January 9
Teams in CAPS represent the projected AUTOMATIC bid. Exceptions are made for teams that use an abbreviation (UTEP, BYU, etc). Records are for games against Division I teams only.
FIRST FOUR PAIRINGS - Dayton (First Round)
- Arizona (11-5) vs. Northern Iowa (11-4) | Midwest Region
- Iowa State (12-3) vs. Marshall (10-4) | West Region
- NORKFOLK STATE (10-4) vs. STONY BROOK (7-6) | East Region
- NC ASHEVILLE (7-6) vs. MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ST (3-11) | South Region
BRACKET PROJECTION ...
| EAST - Boston | SOUTH - Atlanta | |
| Pittsburgh | Louisville | |
| 1) SYRACUSE (17-0) | 1) KENTUCKY (15-1) | |
| 16) NORFOLK ST / STONY BROOK | 16) NC ASHEVILLE / MS VALLEY ST | |
| 8) San Diego State (11-2) | 8) Wisconsin (12-5) | |
| 9) Southern Mississippi (13-2) | 9) New Mexico (12-2) | |
| Nashville | Portland | |
| 5) Michigan (12-3) | 5) CREIGHTON (13-2) | |
| 12) IONA (13-3) | 12) Xavier (10-5) | |
| 4) Mississippi State (13-3) | 4) GONZAGA (13-2) | |
| 13) CLEVELAND STATE (13-3) | 13) DENVER (13-3) | |
| Omaha | Omaha | |
| 6) West Virginia (11-3) | 6) Virginia (14-1) | |
| 11) NC State (12-4) | 11) California (13-4) | |
| 3) Missouri (14-1) | 3) Kansas (12-3) | |
| 14) DAVIDSON (9-4) | 14) BELMONT (10-6) | |
| Louisville | Greensboro | |
| 7) Vanderbilt (11-4) | 7) Purdue (13-4) | |
| 10) St. Louis (12-3) | 10) DAYTON (12-4) | |
| 2) Indiana (15-1) | 2) Georgetown (12-2) | |
| 15) GEORGE MASON (12-4) | 15) LONG ISLAND (10-6) | |
| MIDWEST - St. Louis | WEST - Phoenix | |
| Greensboro | Pittsburgh | |
| 1) NORTH CAROLINA (14-2) | 1) OHIO STATE (15-2) | |
| 16) BUCKNELL (10-6) | 16) LAMAR (9-5) | |
| 8) Illinois (14-3) | 8) Wichita State (11-3) | |
| 9) St. Mary’s (12-2) | 9) MEMPHIS (10-5) | |
| Nashville | Albuquerque | |
| 5) MURRAY STATE (13-0) | 5) Louisville (13-3) | |
| 12) OHIO (11-3) | 12) BYU (12-4) | |
| 4) Seton Hall (14-2) | 4) UNLV (14-2) | |
| 13) Arizona / No. Iowa | 13) Iowa State / Marshall | |
| Portland | Columbus | |
| 6) Marquette (12-4) | 6) Connecticut (12-3) | |
| 11) Temple (10-4) | 11) Northwestern (11-4) | |
| 3) Kansas State (12-2) | 3) Duke (13-2) | |
| 14) LONG BEACH ST (8-6) | 14) ORAL ROBERTS (14-4) | |
| Columbus | Albuquerque | |
| 7) Alabama (12-3) | 7) Florida (12-4) | |
| 10) HARVARD (12-2) | 10) STANFORD (13-3) | |
| 2) Michigan State (13-2) | 2) BAYLOR (14-0) | |
| 15) NEW MEXICO ST (10-5) | 15) WEBER STATE (10-3) |
NOTES on the BRACKET: Syracuse is the No. 1 overall seed followed by Kentucky, North Carolina, and Ohio State. Next in line are Baylor, Michigan State, Georgetown, and Indiana.
Last Five teams in (at large): Northwestern, Arizona, Iowa State, Northern Iowa, Marshall
First Five teams out (at large): Colorado State, UCF, Missouri State, LSU, Virginia Tech
Next Five teams out (at large): St. Joseph’s, Oklahoma, Texas, Nevada, Washington
Bracket adjustments: BYU and NC State switch positions to accommodate Thursday-Saturday sites only for BYU. Also, Northwestern and Xavier switch lines to avoid conference bracket procedures.
Here is the team breakdown by Conference ...
Big Ten (8): Ohio State, Michigan State, Indiana, Wisconsin, Michigan, Purdue, Illinois, Northwestern
Big East (7): Syracuse, Georgetown, Louisville, Connecticut, Marquette, West Virginia, Seton Hall
SEC (5): Kentucky, Florida, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, Alabama
Big 12 (5): Baylor, Missouri, Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State
ACC (4): North Carolina, Duke, Virginia, NC State
Atlantic 10 (4): Xavier, St. Louis, Dayton, Temple
Pac 12 (3): Stanford, Arizona, California
Mountain West (3): UNLV, San Diego State, New Mexico
Conference USA (3): Memphis, Southern Mississippi, Marshall
Missouri Valley (3): Creighton, Wichita State, Northern Iowa
West Coast (3): Gonzaga, St. Mary’s, BYU
Sun Belt (1): Denver
Mid-American (1): Ohio
Horizon (1): Cleveland State
Conference leaders/champions ... George Mason (CAA), New Mexico State (WAC), Murray State (OVC), Iona (MAAC), Weber State (Big Sky), Davidson (Southern), Oral Roberts (Summit), Long Beach State (Big West), Long Island (NEC), Belmont (Atlantic Sun), Harvard (Ivy), NC-Asheville (Big South), Norfolk State (MEAC), Bucknell (Patriot), Stony Brook (America East), Lamar (Southland), Mississippi Valley State (SWAC)