Latest NCAA tournament projections: Baylor’s on the rise



Another week closer to Selection Sunday and Seton Hall and West Virginia are the week’s biggest movers. Michigan State and Indiana also climb, anchoring 2-seeds in the East (Indiana) and Midwest (Michigan State). Our No. 1 seeds remain the same: Syracuse, Kentucky, North Carolina, and Ohio State. Baylor would be next in line.

The bracket is still very fluid, and there’s a fine line between the final few teams selected and those among the first teams out. One of the biggest factors used this week in determining those final spots was non-conference strength-of-schedule and overall strength-of-schedule.  So if you’re wondering why a team like Cincinnati remains out look no further than a non-conference SOS that ranks No. 317 – among the bottom 25 in college hoops. Other teams with that issue include Oregon State (No. 325) and Wyoming (No. 318).

The Pac-12 retains three teams this week but none higher than a 10-seed: Stanford.  Arizona is among our Last 5 teams in. Could either of those teams or Cal win games in the NCAA tournament? Absolutely. Washington is very talented, too. But the Huskies – like its other Pac-12 team members – will have to make the Field of 68 first.

The Big Ten remains the conference leader (No. 1 in the RPI) and has eight teams in the bracket today. Minnesota (now 0-4 in the Big 10) drops out; and Northwestern is just one line on the s-curve above the play-in games in Dayton. That’s largely due to an early win over Seton Hall and no bad losses. That said, the Wildcats will not make the NCAAs if they continue to lose home games.

UPDATED: Monday, January 9

Teams in CAPS represent the projected AUTOMATIC bid. Exceptions are made for teams that use an abbreviation (UTEP, BYU, etc). Records are for games against Division I teams only.

FIRST FOUR PAIRINGS – Dayton (First Round)

  • Arizona (11-5) vs. Northern Iowa (11-4) | Midwest Region
  • Iowa State (12-3) vs. Marshall (10-4) | West Region
  • NORKFOLK STATE (10-4) vs. STONY BROOK (7-6) | East Region
  • NC ASHEVILLE (7-6) vs. MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ST (3-11) | South Region


EASTBoston SOUTHAtlanta
Pittsburgh Louisville
1) SYRACUSE (17-0) 1) KENTUCKY (15-1)
8) San Diego State (11-2) 8) Wisconsin (12-5)
9) Southern Mississippi (13-2) 9) New Mexico (12-2)
Nashville Portland
5) Michigan (12-3) 5) CREIGHTON (13-2)
12) IONA (13-3) 12) Xavier (10-5)
4) Mississippi State (13-3) 4) GONZAGA (13-2)
13) CLEVELAND STATE (13-3) 13) DENVER (13-3)
Omaha Omaha
6) West Virginia (11-3) 6) Virginia (14-1)
11) NC State (12-4) 11) California (13-4)
3) Missouri (14-1) 3) Kansas (12-3)
14) DAVIDSON (9-4) 14) BELMONT (10-6)
Louisville Greensboro
7) Vanderbilt (11-4) 7) Purdue (13-4)
10) St. Louis (12-3) 10) DAYTON (12-4)
2) Indiana (15-1) 2) Georgetown (12-2)
15) GEORGE MASON (12-4) 15) LONG ISLAND (10-6)
MIDWEST – St. Louis WEST – Phoenix
Greensboro Pittsburgh
1) NORTH CAROLINA (14-2) 1) OHIO STATE (15-2)
16) BUCKNELL (10-6) 16) LAMAR (9-5)
8) Illinois (14-3) 8) Wichita State (11-3)
9) St. Mary’s (12-2) 9) MEMPHIS (10-5)
Nashville Albuquerque
5) MURRAY STATE (13-0) 5) Louisville (13-3)
12) OHIO (11-3) 12) BYU (12-4)
4) Seton Hall (14-2) 4) UNLV (14-2)
13) Arizona / No. Iowa 13) Iowa State / Marshall
Portland Columbus
6) Marquette (12-4) 6) Connecticut (12-3)
11) Temple (10-4) 11) Northwestern (11-4)
3) Kansas State (12-2) 3) Duke (13-2)
14) LONG BEACH ST (8-6) 14) ORAL ROBERTS (14-4)
Columbus Albuquerque
7) Alabama (12-3) 7) Florida (12-4)
10) HARVARD (12-2) 10) STANFORD (13-3)
2) Michigan State (13-2) 2) BAYLOR (14-0)
15) NEW MEXICO ST (10-5) 15) WEBER STATE (10-3)

NOTES on the BRACKET: Syracuse is the No. 1 overall seed followed by Kentucky, North Carolina, and Ohio State. Next in line are Baylor, Michigan State, Georgetown, and Indiana.

Last Five teams in (at large): Northwestern, Arizona, Iowa State, Northern Iowa, Marshall

First Five teams out (at large): Colorado State, UCF, Missouri State, LSU, Virginia Tech

Next Five teams out (at large): St. Joseph’s, Oklahoma, Texas, Nevada, Washington

Bracket adjustments: BYU and NC State switch positions to accommodate Thursday-Saturday sites only for BYU. Also, Northwestern and Xavier switch lines to avoid conference bracket procedures.

Here is the team breakdown by Conference …

Big Ten (8): Ohio State, Michigan State, Indiana, Wisconsin, Michigan, Purdue, Illinois, Northwestern

Big East (7): Syracuse, Georgetown, Louisville, Connecticut, Marquette, West Virginia, Seton Hall

SEC (5): Kentucky, Florida, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, Alabama

Big 12 (5): Baylor, Missouri, Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State

ACC (4): North Carolina, Duke, Virginia, NC State

Atlantic 10 (4): Xavier, St. Louis, Dayton, Temple

Pac 12 (3): Stanford, Arizona, California

Mountain West (3): UNLV, San Diego State, New Mexico

Conference USA (3): Memphis, Southern Mississippi, Marshall

Missouri Valley (3): Creighton, Wichita State, Northern Iowa

West Coast (3): Gonzaga, St. Mary’s, BYU

Sun Belt (1): Denver

Mid-American (1): Ohio

Horizon (1): Cleveland State

Conference leaders/champions … George Mason (CAA), New Mexico State (WAC), Murray State (OVC), Iona (MAAC), Weber State (Big Sky), Davidson (Southern), Oral Roberts (Summit), Long Beach State (Big West), Long Island (NEC), Belmont (Atlantic Sun), Harvard (Ivy), NC-Asheville (Big South), Norfolk State (MEAC), Bucknell (Patriot), Stony Brook (America East), Lamar (Southland), Mississippi Valley State (SWAC)

Kentucky moves scrimmage to Eastern Kentucky for flood relief

Sam Upshaw Jr./Courier Journal/USA TODAY NETWORK

LEXINGTON, Ky. — Kentucky will play its annual Blue-White men’s basketball scrimmage in Eastern Kentucky to benefit victims of the devastating summer floods.

The school announced that the Oct. 22 event at Appalachian Wireless Arena in Pikeville will feature a pregame Fan Fest. Ticket proceeds will go through Team Eastern Kentucky Flood Relief.

Wildcat players will also participate in a community service activity with local organizations in the relief effort.

Kentucky coach John Calipari said the team was excited to play for Eastern Kentucky fans and added, “We hope we can provide a temporary escape with basketball and community engagement.”

The scrimmage traditionally is held at Rupp Arena. It will occur eight days after its Big Blue Madness public workout at Rupp.

Kentucky’s Tionna Herron recovering from open-heart surgery

Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times/USA TODAY NETWORK

LEXINGTON, Ky. — Kentucky coach Kyra Elzy says freshman Tionna Herron is recovering from open-heart surgery to correct a structural abnormality.

The 6-foot-4 post player learned of her condition after arriving at school in June and received other opinions before surgery was recommended. Senior trainer Courtney Jones said in a release that Herron underwent surgery Aug. 24 at Texas Children’s Hospital in Houston and is recovering at home in DeSoto, Texas.

Elzy said Herron “is the definition of a warrior” and all are grateful to be on the other side of the player’s surgery. Herron is expected back on campus early next month and will continue rehabilitation until she’s cleared to return to normal activity.

“Her will and determination to eventually return to the court is inspiring, and it’s that `game-on’ attitude that is what makes her such a perfect fit in our program,” Elzy said in a release. “We are so thrilled for Tionna’s return to our locker room; it’s not the same without our full team together.”

Herron committed to Kentucky during last fall’s early signing period, rated as a four-star prospect and a top-70 player in last year’s class. Kentucky won last year’s Southeastern Conference Tournament and reached the NCAA Tournament’s first round.

Emoni Bates charged with 2 felonies

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SUPERIOR TOWNSHIP, Mich — Emoni Bates, a former basketball prodigy who transferred to Eastern Michigan from Memphis, was charged with two felonies after police found a gun in a car during a traffic stop.

The 18-year-old Bates failed to stop at an intersection Sunday night and a search turned up the weapon, said Derrick Jackson, a spokesman for the Washtenaw County sheriff’s office.

Defense attorney Steve Haney told The Associated Press that the vehicle and the gun didn’t belong to Bates.

“I hope people can reserve judgment and understand there’s a presumption of innocence,” Haney said. “This was not his vehicle. This was not his gun. … We’re still gathering facts, too.”

Bates was charged with carrying a concealed weapon and altering identification marks on a firearm. He was released after his lawyer entered a not guilty plea. Bates’ next court hearing is Oct. 6.

“This is his first brush with the law,” Haney said in court. “He poses no threat or risk to society.”

Less than a month ago, the 6-foot-9 Bates transferred to Eastern Michigan to play for his hometown Eagles. Bates averaged nearly 10 points a game last season as a freshman at Memphis, where he enrolled after reclassifying to skip a year of high school and join the class of 2021.

“We are aware of a situation involving one of our student athletes,” EMU spokesman Greg Steiner said. “We are working to gather more details and will have further comment when more information is available.”

Bates was the first sophomore to win the Gatorade national player of the year award in high school basketball in 2020, beating out Cade Cunningham and Evan Mobley. Detroit drafted Cunningham No. 1 overall last year, two spots before Cleveland took Mobley in the 2021 NBA draft.

Bates committed to playing for Tom Izzo at Michigan State two years ago, later de-committed and signed with Memphis. Bates played in 18 games for the Tigers, who finished 22-11 under Penny Hardaway. Bates missed much of the season with a back injury before appearing in Memphis’ two NCAA Tournament games.

In 2019, as a high school freshman, the slender and skilled guard led Ypsilanti Lincoln to a state title and was named Michigan’s Division 1 Player of the Year by The Associated Press. His sophomore season was cut short by the pandemic and he attended Ypsi Prep Academy as a junior, his final year of high school.

UConn to pay Kevin Ollie another $3.9 million over firing

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STORRS, Conn. — UConn announced Thursday it has agreed to pay former men’s basketball coach Kevin Ollie another $3.9 million to settle discrimination claims surrounding his 2018 firing.

The money is in addition to the more than $11.1 million in back salary Ollie has already been paid after an arbitrator ruled in January that he was improperly fired under the school’s agreement with its professor’s union.

“I am grateful that we were able to reach agreement,” Ollie said in a statement Thursday. “My time at UConn as a student-athlete and coach is something I will always cherish. I am pleased that this matter is now fully and finally resolved.”

Ollie, a former UConn point guard who guided the Huskies to a 127-79 record and the 2014 national championship in six seasons as head coach, was let go after two losing seasons. UConn also stopped paying him under his contract, citing numerous NCAA violations in terminating the deal.

In 2019, the NCAA placed UConn on probation for two years and Ollie was sanctioned individually for violations, which the NCAA found occurred between 2013 and 2018. Ollie’s attorneys, Jacques Parenteau and William Madsen, accused UConn of making false claims to the NCAA for the purpose of firing Ollie “with cause.”

The school had argued that Ollie’s transgressions were serious and that his individual contract superseded those union protections.

Ollie’s lawyers had argued that white coaches, including Hall-of-Famers Jim Calhoun and women’s coach Geno Auriemma, had also committed NCAA violations, without being fired, and indicated they were planning to file a federal civil rights lawsuit.

The school and Ollie said in a joint statement Thursday they were settling “to avoid further costly and protracted litigation.”

Both sides declined to comment further.

Ollie, who faced three years of restrictions from the NCAA on becoming a college basketball coach again, is currently coaching for Overtime Elite, a league that prepares top prospects who are not attending college for the pros.

Dream’s McDonald returning to Arizona to coach under Barnes

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TUCSON, Ariz. — Atlanta Dream guard Aari McDonald is returning to Arizona to work under coach Adia Barnes.

The school announced that McDonald will serve as director of recruiting operations while continuing to fulfill her WNBA commitments. She will oversee all recruiting logistics, assist with on-campus visits, manage recruit information and social media content at Arizona.

McDonald was one of the best players in Arizona history after transferring from Washington as a sophomore. She was an All-American and the Pac-12 player of the year in 2020-21, leading the Wildcats to the national championship game, which they lost to Stanford.

McDonald broke Barnes’ single-season scoring record and had the highest career scoring average in school history before being selected by the Dream with the third overall pick of the 2021 WNBA draft.