St. John’s long season in Big East starts tonight

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When Big East play starts Tuesday night – you already read Rob’s breakdown, right? – there are few certainties.

Syracuse is really, really good. Seton Hall and West Virginia are better than onlookers figured two months ago. The bottom of the conference has more than its usual share of bad teams.

And DePaul may no longer be the worst among them.

St. John’s, in full-rebuilding mode with its flock of freshmen and transfers, is shaping up to be the league’s bottom dweller. It’s 6-5 and opens its league schedule Tuesday night against Providence, which is essentially a coin-flip game.

It also might be the last really good chance for a win until February. And even that may be a stretch.

John Templon from NY Buckets simulated 10,000 seasons and St. John’s never had more than 10 wins. In 108 of those seasons, they went winless. That was the worst rate among all 18 teams. DePaul was second worst. It should be noted that Syracuse has a better chance at going unbeaten than St. John’s has at going winless, though.

(Click this link for more and a table that illustrates it.)

There is some hope. Templon notes that Amir Garrett’s addition will certainly help. And kenpom.com projections give the Johnnies a 4-14 Big East record. That’s not a goose egg, but it sends a signal that it’ll be a long season in NYC.

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