When it comes to PASE, CAA faces tallest task

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The Big East landed 11 teams in the 2011 NCAA tournament, a new record. As a result, they face some fairly high expectations of winning 17 games.

How does that compare to other multi-bid conferences?

Here’s a breakdown of how many bids each conference received, and the teams:

Atlantic Coast (4) – Clemson, Duke, Florida State, North Carolina
Atlantic 10 (3) – Richmond, Temple, Xavier
Big East (11) – Cincinnati, Connecticut, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, St. John’s, Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia
Big Ten (7) – Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Wisconsin
Big 12 (5) – Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Texas, Texas A&M
Colonial Athletic (3) – George Mason, Old Dominion, Virginia Commonwealth
Conference USA (2)- Memphis, UAB
Mountain West (3) – BYU, San Diego State, UNLV
Pacific-10 (4) – Arizona, Southern Cal, UCLA, Washington
Southeastern (5) – Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

According to PASE (Performance Aginast Seed Expectations, explained here), here’s the expected number of wins for each conference:

*ACC – 6.9
A-10 – 2.61
Big East – 16.97
Big Ten – 9.19
Big 12 – 7.42
*CAA – 1.76
*C-USA – .96
MWC – 4.89
*Pac-10 – 3.37
SEC – 6.34
*includes teams playing in First Four, which will throw off PASE given that those games allow for an easier win. I counted it as a typical seed.

Looking at the bracket, I’d expect the SEC, Pac-10 and Big 12 to meet or surpass those PASE expectations. (The Pac-10 in particular should be set. One win from each team is more than reasonable.) The ACC, A-10 and MWC will be close.

The Big Ten, C-USA and CAA are gonna come up short. The CAA in fact, got jobbed. It got three teams in, but received an 8, 9 and 11 seed for its trouble. It’s only slated for 1.76 wins, but none of those games are favorable matchups.

Then again, that’s exactly what the CAA wants major conferences to think. Set up ‘em up for a fall.

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