Gators as a 3 seed? Take note for a March upset

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Say the latest NCAA tournament bracket projections held up. Ohio State, Kansas, Pitt and Texas got 1 seeds, Duke, BYU, San Diego State and Notre Dame grabbed 2 seeds. And Wisconsin, Georgetown, Purdue and Florida took the 3s.

Which of those 12 teams seem the most vulnerable?

If you said Florida, take a bow. Your brain just agreed with Vegas Watch’s latest post of NCAA tournament seeding.

The guy who brought you last week’s post regarding San Diego State’s prospects as a No. 1 seed did more number crunching in regards to the top half of the tournament field, using the same method as explained here. And he found some interesting results.

(Quick version for those who don’t want to click: Every team is given the same “baseline” schedule and is projected according to their season performance.)

There’s some slightly underseeded (UConn) and slightly overseeded (Louisville) teams, but few stand out more than Florida, which is rated as a three seed. Too bad the Gators (20-5) are more in line with the likes of Temple and Texas A&M, which are 6 and 7 seeds.

That’s promising news for any 6 seeds out there. (And also emphasizes the need for proper seeding.)

This could be remedied if the Gators’ rough final stretch (Georgia, Kentucky, ‘Bama, Vandy) trips them up a bit and lands them as a 5 or 6 seed.

Only problem with that? You’d miss out the chance for an easy upset pick.

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