What’s the value of a great win? You know, like a really great win Texas had at Allen Fieldhouse?
Is it worth a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament? Or would a series of good wins be more valuable? Given the importance of a No. 1 seed – and the importance of a properly seeded field – it’s a question worth investigating.
His methodology: He set a baseline to compare each team to (in this case, a bubble team like Richmond), then ran them through each relevant team’s schedule to see their expected record. (Richmond would be 16.1-9.9 on Ohio State’s schedule compared the Buckeyes’ actual 25-1 record.) So he did that for the top eight teams in the most recent Bracketology and found that Ohio State, Pitt, San Diego State and Kansas emerged with the best records.
Even when he upped the baseline to Pitt to improve the relative credit of a win at Kansas, the top four teams remained in the same order.
I know what you’re thinking. VW thought the same thing. How does SDSU end up ahead of Texas? Turns out the Aztecs’ impressive non-conference schedule, a good MWC slate and that one loss at BYU adds up to a better overall mark than Texas’ if you go line by line. Here’s his nifty table.
Texas starts off well, loses the line-by-line race about halfway down, then gets hurt by having those three losses. And, for those Longhorns fans fuming at the idea of SDSU being better than Texas, allow Vegas Watch to close it out:
I wouldn’t argue that SDSU is a better team than Texas; if they played on a neutral court tomorrow, Rick Barnes’ squad team would unquestionably be favored, and rightfully so. But, with the policy that is currently in place for seeding teams, I think you have to really twist the facts to argue that the Longhorns are more deserving of a #1 seed than the Aztecs at this point.
Can’t emphasize that enough. Playing by the seeding rules, SDSU comes out ahead. Whether that lasts through Selection Sunday – or if the Selection Committee even considers that aspect – is another story.
But it’s certainly worth nothing amid all the “who’s No. 1” talk.
Want more? I’m also on Twitter @MikeMillerNBC.