Bubble Banter opens with 41 teams on the bubble

Bubble Banter highlights the teams we believe are on the NCAA Bubble. If a team isn’t listed, they aren’t a bubble team at the time of the update. 

An amazing 41 teams begin the countdown as bubble teams.  Even more could have listed, and teams will come and go over the next few weeks.  To be eligible for consideration, a team had to be within the Top 100 of the RPI, and be close enough to the cutline to warrant serious consideration.  A team like South Carolina, for example, has two quality wins, but fell to No. 105 in the RPI after the loss to Auburn.  Thus, we did not include USC in this update as no team with an RPI rating that high has ever been selected as an at-large candidate.

Note:  RPI and SOS data is credited to CollegeRPI.com.  Follow along at Bracketville.

UPDATED: February 1

Automatic Bids (31): None decided | Total Spots (68): Number of total teams in the Field.

• Projected Locks (11): Teams who project to have secured a spot in the 2011 NCAA Tournament witihout a major collapse. Some of these projected locks may become automatic qualifiers should they win their conference tournament.
• Should Be In (17): While not yet locks, these are teams in good position to receive an at-large bid.
• Bubble: (41): Teams projected to be at or near the cutline for being selected as at-large candidates.
• Spots available (15): Number of available openings for the bracket based on spots reserved for automatic qualifiers, projected locks, and teams projected as Should Be In at this update.

Below is a conference breakdown of the bubble picture.

Atlantic 10
Locks: NONE | Should Be In: Temple, Xavier | Bubble: Duquesne, Rhode Island, Richmond
Duquesne (14-5) | RPI: 76 | SOS: 144 | – Despite a poor RPI, Duquesne opens Bubble Banter tied with Xavier atop the A-10 – including a win over Temple. Nothing to report in the non-conference season, and the Dukes’ overall SOS is a concern. Still, we can’t ignore a team that’s 7-0 in the No. 8-rated conference. Rhode Island (13-8) | RPI: 82 | SOS: 95 | – Like a lot of teams, the Rams have been a mixed bag. Good wins include Boston College, at Richmond, and vs. Charleston. There’s also the losses to Quinnipiac and UIC, and a blowout loss at Xaver. URI must vault to the top of the A-10 standings. Richmond (16-6) | RPI: 60 | SOS: 90 | – Spiders are hoping the non-conference win over Purdue holds a lot of weight. Richmond also won at Seton Hall and beat VCU. The lopsided home loss to Xavier is troubling and puts the Spiders two games back of the Muskateers.
ACC
Locks: Duke | Should Be In: North Carolina | Bubble: Boston College, Clemson, Florida State, Maryland, Virginia Tech
Boston College (14-7) | RPI: 38 | SOS: 26 | – The Eagles are an RPI oddity: Numbers are good, but the overall resume suggests work ahead. BC’s win over Texas Am early is notable, as was a good road win at Maryland to open ACC play. At the same time, BC has lost (at home) to two Ivy League schools and has dropped 3 of its past 4 games. Clemson (15-6) | RPI: 69 | SOS: 100 | The Tigers make the bubble with a 4-3 ACC mark, but other than home wins over Florida State and Miami, the resume is light. Clemson has non-league losses to Old Dominion, Michigan, and South Carolina. It’ll take a strong month for the Tigers to be a serious at-large contender. Florida State (15-6) | RPI: 50 | SOS: 75 | – Seminoles were only be a week away from moving into Should Be In status before another lopsided road loss – this time to Clemson. Baylor is their best non-ACC win, and the Bears have struggled. While the loss at Auburn was probably a fluke, it’s an example of inconsistent play. FSU also lost to a struggling Butler team in Hawaii. The win over Duke is big, but not enough by itself. Maryland (14-7) | RPI: 70 | SOS: 63 | – Can the Terps make another February run? That’s the question. Other than an early win at Penn Sate, Maryland is void of anything out-of-conference, and the ACC is down. The closing schedule is favorable, but it will take a good finish for the Terps to contend. Game with Duke (at home) is huge. Virginia Tech (14-6) | RPI: 68 | SOS: 80 | – Yet again the Hokies find themselves on the bubble, and an underwhelming non-conference profile is the biggest reason. Credit VT with playing a much better schedule, the Hokies just failed to win many of the games – the best is over fellow bubble-dweller Oklahoma State. It also hurts that VT sees Duke, North Carolina, and FSU only once in league play. Must stay with the contenders.
BIG EAST
Locks: Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Villanova | Should Be In: Syracuse, Georgetown, Louisville,West Virginia | Bubble: Cincinnati, Marquette, St. John’s
Cincinnati (18-4) | RPI: 46 | SOS: 128 | – As we’ve mentioned before, the Bearcats’ dreadful non-conference SOS (No. 289) leaves UC with little margin for error in the Big East. Last week’s road win at St. John’s was huge because Cincy has won most of its games at home. The closing stretch will be a challenge and it’s important for UC to stay above the fray. Marquette (14-8) | RPI: 59 | SOS: 32 | – Marquette may be better than its record, but the Golden Eagles best wins have been at home, and a tough three-game road stretch is just on the horizon. Wins over Notre Dame and West Virginia help, and the Eagles’ worst loss is an early-neutral court game vs. Gonzaga. The rest have been to Top 50 RPI teams. St. John’s (12-8) | RPI: 23 | SOS: 3 | – The Red Storm has some very good wins – none better than Sunday’s dominating win over Duke. There’s also a roadie at West Virgina. SJU owns the nation’s No. 3 rated overall SOS. That will help. The question is … can St. John’s win enough games down the stretch? A cross-country road trip to UCLA won’t be easy.
BIG 10
Locks: Ohio State | Should Be In: Purdue, Wisconsin, Minnesota | Bubble: Illinois, Michigan State Penn State
Illinois (14-7) | RPI: 39 | SOS: 24 | The Illini have lost 4 of 5 games which included dropping a second-half lead vs. Ohio State and an ugly effort at Indiana. The upcoming schedule is favorable for a rebound, but UI is at a critical juncture. Good wins include N. Carolina and Wisconsin, along with Michigan State. The loss at UIC is a sore point. Michigan State (12-8) | RPI: 36 | SOS: 5 | It’s worth noting that the Spartans have played the nation’s No. 5 schedule and No. 18 non-conference schedule. MSU has also avoided any bad RPI losses – even though the home loss to Michigan was a bit shocking. With Korie Lucious dismissed for the season, the Spartans need to re-prove they are an NCAA team without him. Much like Illinois, MSU needs to start winning again. Penn State (12-8) | RPI: 44 | SOS: 6 | – The Nittany Lions have been a tough out in the Big 10 and have rebounded nicely from a lackluster non-conference effort that included a home loss to Maine. Good wins include Michigan State, Illinois, and Wisconsin – at home. While close, PSU has yet to win a meaningful road game. That may have to change. The closing stretch is tough, but offers PSU some opportunities.
BIG 12
Locks: Kansas, Texas | Should Be In: Missouri, Texas AM | Bubble: Kansas State, Baylor, Colorado, Oklahoma State
Baylor (14-6) | RPI: 81 | SOS: 82 | – What the Bears have done is be very average. Nothing stands out to separate Baylor from any number of other teams. Best wins are Oklahoma State and Colorado at home. Neither are certain NCAA teams. Out of conference, the Bears failed to win a Top 100 RPI game and their non-league SOS ranks No. 236. No one questions the Bears’ talent, it’s whether they can win enought Big 12 games at this point. Colorado (13-8) | RPI: 94 | SOS: 114 | – In back-to-back games, the Buffaloes beat Missouri at home and K-State on the road. Since, Colorado has lost four of five and four straight – including games at Nebraska and Oklahoma. A non-league win over Colorado State is notable, but overall the Buffs non-conference SOS ranks No. 307. That spells trouble. Colorado has remaining chances to win big games, they’ll need as many as they can get. Kansas State (13-8) | RPI: 41 | SOS: 15 | – The Wildcats opened the season No. 3 in national polls. Ever since, there have been more questions than answers. First, K-State needs to improve its 2-5 mark in the Big 12. Next, they need to beat a Top 50 RPI opponent – KSU is currently 0-6 vs. such teams. Other than that, the power numbers are workable. More than anything, K-State needs to start winning games, they’ve dropped 5 of 7. Oklahoma State (14-7) | RPI: 58 | SOS: 64 | – Cowboys, like K-State are 2-5 now in league play, so compiling wins is most important. Winning a meaningful game away from home would help too as OSU is 2-5 in true road games. Best wins are Kansas State and Missouri State at home. Best non-league win is probably Alabama. Against the Top 100, OSU is 2-6. The recent loss at Texas Tech speaks to the Cowboys’ trouble on the road. Oklahoma State also has head-to-head losses against several other bubble teams (Gonzaga, Colorado, Baylor).
MOUNTAIN WEST
Locks: BYU, San Diego State | Should Be In: UNLV | Bubble: Colorado State, New Mexico
Colorado State (14-6) | RPI: 49 | SOS: 58 | – At 5-2 in the Mountain West, Colorado State is certainly in the at-large discussion. Solid win at UNLV is a high point, but there are also losses to Hampton and Sam Houston. Inconsistency is a recurring theme. Overall, good wins are still lacking as CSU is 1-2 vs. Top 50 teams. Non-conference wins include So. Mississippi and Ole Miss, but neither of those are NCAA wins at this point. CSU will need to beat San Diego State and or BYU to be a realistic contender. New Mexico (14-7) | RPI: 63 | SOS: 77 | – While the season hasn’t gone as planned, beating BYU at The Pit keeps the Lobos’ NCAA hopes alive. They’ve also beaten Colorado State and Colorado at home. Troubling road losses are to Utah and Wyoming. UNM’s non-conference profile is light, so it’s going to take a strong finish in the Mountain West, but the overall bubble picture is very weak at this point, so who knows. Three of the next four are away from home.
PAC 10
Locks: NONE | Should Be In: Washington | Bubble: Arizona, California, Washington State, UCLA
Arizona (18-4) | RPI: 21 | SOS: 44 | – The Wildcats have posted a stellar record but are just 1-3 vs. Top 50 teams (beating UCLA at home). There’s nothing from the non-conference resume helping as the best win is Oklahoma. UA also has an ugly loss at Oregon State. Right now, Arizona would make the field, but it’s too early to move them off the bubble. They need to continue to stay at the top of the Pac-10 standings. A tricky three-game road stretch is next. California (12-9) | RPI: 57 | SOS: 14 | – A strong SOS is keeping Cal in the mix as is a 5-4 league mark. That said, the Bears’ lone Top 50 win is at home vs. Temple, and Cal is 1-7 vs. Top 50 RPI teams. That mark will have to improve. Cal is also 8-9 vs. the Top 200 which usually means a no-go for the NCAAs. Next four games are critical. Washington State (15-6) | RPI: 64 | SOS: 84 | – Beating Washington at home Sunday night kept WSU in the current bracket. It was the Cougars’ first Top 50 win (1-4). Other notable wins are Baylor and Gonzaga, but those are bubble teams at this point, too. A 3-3 road mark is acceptable, but WSU needs to up its 5-4 mark in league play. The Pac-10 isn’t deep and WSU needs to finish in the top three to feel safe. UCLA (14-7) | RPI: 47 | SOS: 31 | – The Bruins have a good home win over BYU in their pocket, but that’s only going to last so long. At 6-3 in the league, UCLA needs to stay near the top of the heap. RPI and SOS numbers are good, but UCLA is just 1-4 vs. Top 50 RPI teams and 3-7 vs. Top 100 teams. Neither suggests they’ve done enough. A home date with St. John’s is a big opportunity to post another solid non-conference win.
SEC
Locks: Kentucky | Should Be In: Florida, Tennessee, Vanderbilt | Bubble: Georgia
Georgia (14-6) | RPI: 43 | SOS: 41| – The Bulldogs are talented enough to make the NCAAs, but can they win enough SEC games? An early victory over Kentucky helps, as does a win over UAB – another bubble team. Still, with a 2-6 mark vs. Top 50 teams, Georgia needs to start winning close games. All of the Bulldogs losses have been to teams ranked in the Top 40 of the RPI, so that’s a plus. The schedule is favorable over the next two weeks. There’s also a home game with Xavier that could help.
BEST OF THE REST
Locks: NONE | Should Be In: NONE | Bubble: Butler, Cleveland State, Missouri State, Northern Iowa, Wichita State, Old Dominion, George Mason, VCU, Memphis, Southern Mississippi, UAB, UTEP, Gonzaga, St. Mary’s, UAB, Utah State
Butler (13-8) | RPI: 42 | SOS: 28 | – The NCAA runner-ups have struggled much of the season with the exception of the Diamond Head Classic where the Bulldogs beat Florida State and Washington State. Within the Horizon, BU has a good win over Cleveland State but has fallen off the pace with 3 sub-100 losses, including being swept by Milwaukee. Butler missed chances with Duke, Xavier, and Louisville. Without a lot of wins down the stretch, it’ll be dicey if the Bulldogs fade in the Horizon tournament. Cleveland State (18-3) | RPI: 29 | SOS: 141 | – CSU best wins are Kent State and Wright State – having lost to both Butler and Valparaiso in the Horizon. With an 0-2 mark vs. Top 50 teams, CSU really needs to beat Butler and Valpo at home down the stretch. An outright Horizon title will help, but may not be enough given the so-so SOS numbers. Missouri State (17-5) | RPI: 45 | SOS: 111 | – Failing to win a meaningful non-conference game and a non-league SOS of No. 225 hurts the Bears’ chances. A clear Missouri Valley title would be a huge benefit. MSU does have a win at Wichita State and probably needs to sweep the Shockers. This is a good team that’s light on quality wins. Northern Iowa (16-6) | RPI: 51 | SOS: 108 | – With MVC road wins at Missouri State and Wichita State, we have to include the Panthers. They’ve also beaten fellow bubbler New Mexico. UNI has four sub-100 losses, however, and needs to at least tie for the MVC title to have a realistic chance. The BracketBuster with George Mason is a must-get. Wichita State (17-4) | RPI: 48 | SOS: 109 | – The Shockers let a second-half lead slip away against UConn in Maui and WSU has yet to win a Top 50 RPI game (0-3). In fact, WSU is 0-4 vs. Top 100 teams. A 5-1 record in true road games and being tied atop the MVC standings is keeping WSU on the cutline. That, and no bad losses – something we can’t say about a lot of teams. The BracketBuster matchup with VCU looms large. Memphis (16-5) | RPI: 35 | SOS: 47 | – Somebody has to win Conference USA, and the Tigers are playing better. Winning at UAB helps, although an early tally over Miami-FL is fading some. There’s a bad loss at SMU and a 1-3 mark vs. Top 50 teams. The plus is 5 Top 100 wins, however. It doesn’t help that Memphis was largely non-competitive in losses to Kansas, Tennessee, and Georgetown. Upcoming trip to Gonzaga could be telling. UAB (15-5) | RPI: 37 | SOS: 74 | – The Blazers are a solid team that lacks a marquee win. They are 0-3 vs. Top 50 teams (Duke, Memphis, Georgia). UAB’s best win is probably VCU at home. There’s also losses at Tulsa and Arizona State. Rematch at Memphis is huge as the Blazers can stay at the top of the C-USA standings. Southern Mississippi (14-5) | RPI: 67 | SOS: 140 | – With just two Top 100 wins, So. Miss has to keep plugging along. They can’t afford many more conference losses. A non-conference SOS ranked No. 256 won’t help. UTEP (16-5) | RPI: 62 | SOS: 131 | – Of UTEP’s 16 D-I wins, 14 are to teams ranked outside the Top 100 of the RPI. The best is an early win over Michigan. Add in three sub-100 losses and the Miners are here as a fringe candidate with a 5-2 C-USA mark. Probably have to win the C-USA title for serious consideration. Old Dominion (17-5) | RPI: 31 | SOS: 51 | – Monarchs have a pretty good profile if they can stay at the top of the Colonial standings. Solid non-conference wins include Xavier, Richmond and Clemson. ODU also played Georgetown to within three points. A 7-4 mark vs. Top 100 teams helps. The BracketBuster with Cleveland State could be helpful. VCU (18-5) | RPI: 53 | SOS: 153 | – The Rams currently lead the CAA and may need to stay there to make the Dance. Talented, VCU has a good neutral court win over UCLA. There’s a good loss to Tennessee, but also a miscue at Georgia State. Rematches with ODU and Geo Mason at home are huge, as is a BracketBuster with Wichita State. George Mason (17-5) | RPI: 34 | SOS: 79 | – George Mason lacks a Top 50 RPI win but has won 7 straight and stands alone in second place in the CAA. It’ll take some work, but an outright CAA title could be enough to give the Patriots a fighting chance. A BracketBuster win at Northern Iowa would help, too. Gonzaga (13-8) | RPI: 87 | SOS: 52 | – The Zags have fallen all the way to the bubble thanks to eight losses and a 1-5 mark vs. Top 50 RPI teams. There are some good wins – Baylor, Xavier, Marquette – that could get better. A good SOS always helps. A big issue is being two games back of St. Mary’s in the WCC. Big week for the Zags with a trip to Portland and a home date with Memphis. The losses at Santa Clara and San Francisco are hurting right now. St. Mary’s (16-4) | RPI: 33 | SOS: 104 | – Winning an outright WCC title could be enough as long as St. Mary’s doesn’t lose many more games – especially to teams other than Gonzaga or maybe Portland. An early win over St. John’s helps, but the Gaels were blown out at Vanderbilt and have only the one Top 50 win. At 2-4 vs. Top 100 teams, St. Mary’s is a long way from being a lock. Utah State (20-2) | RPI: 30 | SOS: 164 | – The Aggies have a lot of wins but none to teams ranked in the Top 100 of the RPI. That’s a major hurdle to overcome. USU missed against BYU and Georgetown and has only one Top 100 team left on its schedule – the BracketBuster at St. Mary’s. Lose that and USU may still have to win its conference tournament.