Best bets to be this season's version of Butler

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Anyone looking for this season’s Butler – a non-BCS school capable of making a deep run in the NCAA tournament – doesn’t have to look far.

It’s still the Bulldogs.

Sure, Gordon Hayward and Willie Veasley are gone, but there’s plenty to like about Brad Stevens’ team that came this close to stunning Duke in the 2010 NCAA title game. You know, like Shelvin Mack, Matt Howard and Ronald Nored, among others. But you should already know about the Bulldogs. They’re 18th in our preseason Top 25.

Other non-BCS schools in the Top 25? Memphis, Gonzaga, San Diego State, Temple, UNLV, Xavier and Wichita State. So consider them good bets as well.

So who’s that leave? Plenty. Bookmark this page. When March rolls around, you’ll see these six schools in your bracket. Ignore them at your own risk.

East Tennessee State
The Bucs’ finest NCAA tourney moment came in 1992 when they stunned 3-seed Arizona. They’ve been back four times since and have been routed just once, last season against Kentucky. There’s reason to think they could finally break through again. Still, among the teams listed here, ETSU is the biggest underdog.

Four starters return form a 20-15 team that played forced a ton of turnovers, hit the offensive boards and gets a boost thanks to a healthy Mike Smith, who was an all-conference selection until a knee injury derailed his 2009-10 season. He’ll be their best offensive player.

Old Dominion
The Monarchs are a known commodity – they popped Notre Dame last season as an 11 seed – who bring back four starters from a 27-9 team that swept the conference crowns. Despite losing center Gerald Lee, ODU isn’t going anywhere. In fact, it could be better.

Senior Frank Hassell was the difference against Notre Dame (15 points, 9 boards) and junior Kent Bazemore is poised for bigger things after nabbing a spot on the All-CAA Tournament team. Guards Ben Finney (111.2 ORtg) and Darius James (22.1 ARate) are underrated and a huge reason ODU only allows foes to hit 30.1 percent beyond the arc.

Bottom line, ODU is nasty on defense (no easy shots, lots of forced turnovers and teams don’t get second-chance points) and hits the offensive boards relentlessly. In fact, no team did it better in 2010. That continues, good luck to the BCS school that plays the Monarchs in March. 

Santa Barbara
Butler had a weapon most non-BCS school don’t have: An NBA-caliber talent. Same goes for the Gauchos, who have a dynamic player in All-American candidate Orlando Johnson. The 6-5 junior averaged 18 points and 5.4 rebounds game last season, his first with the program.

But … Santa Barbara needs a big jump in performance to match Butler. The Gauchos keep opponents off the glass and are good along the perimeter, but the offense is incredibly inefficient (a little too much Johnson?) and makes too many turnovers. Solve those issues, and they’ll elevate their game in March.

Utah State
The Aggies are a March mainstay, having made seven NCAA tournaments since 2000. Yet they’ve won just once, a 12-5 upset against Ohio State in 2001. That’s the main reason one of the winningest teams of the decade isn’t better known. That changes this season and makes them a great opportunity to be the newest media darling.

Despite losing do-it-all guard Jared Quayle, Utah State returns every other player from a 27-8 squad that just missed pulling off a Big Dance upset against Marquette. That means shooters (Tyler Newbold, Brian Green), reliable post players (Tai Wesley, Nate Bendall), a savvy wing (Pooh Williams) and a deep bench.

Not that coach Stew Morrill uses the bench to outrun opponents. The Aggies play slower than almost every D-I team, yet few teams can hang with their incredibly efficient offense. March is made for teams who can make shots. That’s the Aggies.

Virginia Commonwealth
Two CAA teams? Absolutely. While CAA foe ODU thrives on defense, the Rams do it with offense. Only 25 teams sported a more efficient offense in 2009-10. They hit 36.6 percent of their 3-pointers, 50.9 of their 2s, take care of the ball and get to the offensive glass.

It all starts with senior guards Joey Rodriguez and Brandon Rozell, who can hit from outside and occasionally play some nice defense, too. VCU will miss center Larry Sanders, who cleaned up defensive miscues with his blocks, but this isn’t a team who overly relies on one player. That makes them a tough out in March.

Wofford
The Terriers made the NCAA tournament for the first time last season. A return appearance could result in the school’s first Big Dance win. (They just missed it after four-point loss to Wisconsin.)

Wofford plays deliberately, prizes possessions and forces opponents to work for each shot, which usually results in a Wofford rebound. But it’s not all about defense. Senior forward Noah Dahlman averaged 16.6 points a game last season, but few players score more efficiently because the 6-6 Dahlman hits the boards for second-chance points and gets to the free-throw line frequently.

However, an NCAA tourney win will require a little something more. Guards Jamar Diggs, Brad Loesing and stout forward Tim Johnson must become more reliable scoring options.

Mike Miller’s also on Twitter @BeyndArcMMiller, usually talkin’ hoops. Click here for more.

John Petty Jr. returns to Alabama for senior season

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TUSCALOOSA, Ala. — Alabama guard John Petty Jr. is staying in school instead of entering the NBA draft.

The Crimson Tide junior announced his decision to return for his senior season Monday on Twitter, proclaiming: “I’m back.”

Petty, the Tide’s top 3-point shooter, averaged 14.5 points and a team-high 6.6 rebounds rebounds last season. He was second on the team in assists.

Petty made 85 3-pointers in 29 games, shooting at a 44% clip.

Alabama coach Nate Oats called him “one of the best, if not the best, shooters in the country.”

“He’s made it clear that it’s his goal to become a first round pick in the 2021 NBA Draft and we’re going to work with him to make sure he’s in the best position to reach that goal,” Oats said.

Fellow Tide guard Kira Lewis Jr. is regarded as a likely first-round draft pick.

McKinley Wright IV returns to Colorado

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McKinley Wright IV will be back for season No. 4 with the Colorado Buffaloes.

The point guard tested the NBA draft process before announcing a return for his senior year. It’s a big boost for a Buffaloes team that’s coming off a 21-11 mark in 2019-20 and was potentially looking at an NCAA Tournament bid before the season was halted due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Wright was an All-Pac-12 first team selection a season ago, along with an all-defensive team pick. He and athletic forward Tyler Bey declared for the draft in late March. Bey remains in the draft.

“We’ve got unfinished business,” said Wright, who averaged 14.4 points and 5.0 assists per game last season.

Midway through the season, the Buffaloes were looking like a lock for their first NCAA Tournament appearance since ’15-16. Then, the team hit a five-game skid, including a loss to Washington State in the Pac-12 tournament. Simply put, they hit a defensive rut they just couldn’t shake out of, Wright said. It drove him to work that much harder in the offseason.

“This is my last go-around and I’ve got big dreams,” the 6-footer from Minnesota said. “I want to take CU to a place they haven’t been in a while. We want to go back to the tournament and win high-level games.”

The feedback from NBA scouts was reaffirming for Wright. He said they appreciated his transition game, movement away from the ball and his defensive intangibles. They also gave Wright areas he needed to shore up such as assist-to-turnover ratio and shooting the 3-pointer with more consistency.

He took it to heart while training in Arizona during the pandemic. He recently returned to Boulder, Colorado, where he’s going through quarantine before joining his teammates for workouts.

“The work I put in and the time I spent in the gym compared to all my other offseasons, it’s a big gap,” Wright said. “Last offseason, I thought I worked hard. But it was nothing compared to the time and different type of mindset I put myself in this year.”

Another motivating factor for his return was this: a chance to be the first in his family to earn his college degree. He’s majoring in ethnic studies with a minor in communications.

“My grandparents are excited about that. My parents are excited about that,” Wright said. “I’m excited about that as well.”

Wright also has an opportunity to take over the top spot on the school’s all-time assists list. His 501 career assists trail only Jay Humphries, who had 562 from 1980-84. Wright also ranks 13th all-time with 1,370 career points.

NOTES: Colorado announced the death of 95-year-old fan Betty Hoover, who along with her twin sister, Peggy Coppom, became fixtures at Buffs sporting events and were season ticket holders since 1958. Wright used to run into them not only on the court, but at the local bank. “I’ve never met anyone as loving and supporting and caring as those two,” Wright said. “They hold a special place in my heart. It sucks that Betty won’t be at any games this year. Maybe we can do something, put her name on our jersey. They’re two of the biggest fans in CU history.”

Jared Butler returns to Baylor

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Baylor got some huge news on Monday as potential All-American Jared Butler announced that he will be returning to school for his junior season, joining MaCio Teague is pulling his name out of the 2020 NBA Draft to get the band back together.

Butler was Baylor’s leading scorer a season ago, averaging 16.0 points and 3.1 assists for a team that went 26-4, spent a portion of the season as the No. 1 team in the country and was in line to receive a 1-seed had the 2020 NCAA Tournament taken place.

With Butler and Teague coming back to school, the Bears will return four starters from last season’s squad. Starting center Freddie Gillespie is gone, as is backup guard Devonte Bandoo, but those are holes that can be filled. Tristan Clark, who was Baylor’s best player during the 2018-19 season before suffering a knee injury that lingered through last year, will be back, and there is more than enough talent in the program to replace the scoring pop of Bandoo. Matthew Mayer will be in line for more minutes, while transfer Adam Flagler will be eligible this season.

Baylor will enter this season as a consensus top three team in the country. They will receive plenty of votes as the No. 1 team in the sport, making them not only a very real contender for the Big 12 regular season crown but one of the favorites to win the national title.

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As MaCio Teague returns, Baylor now awaits Jared Butler’s NBA draft decision

Butler is the key.

Baylor was one of college basketball’s best defensive teams last year. They finished fourth nationally in KenPom’s defensive efficiency metric, a ranking that dropped after they Bears lost two of their last three games to TCU and West Virginia. Where they struggled was on the offensive end of the floor. The Bears would go through droughts were points were at a premium and their best offense was a missed shot. Butler’s intrigue for NBA teams was his ability to shoot and to create space in isolation. He’s the one guy on the roster that can create something out of nothing for himself.

And now he is back to try and lead Baylor to a Final Four.

Arizona State’s Martin to return for senior season

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TEMPE, Ariz. (–Arizona State guard Remy Martin is withdrawing from the NBA draft and will return for his senior season in the desert.

“I’m blessed to have the opportunity to coach Remy Martin for one more season,” Sun Devils coach Bobby Hurley said in a statement Sunday. “Remy will be one of the best players in college basketball this year and will be on a mission to lead Arizona State basketball in its pursuit of championships.”

A 6-foot guard, Martin is the Pac-12’s leading returning scorer after averaging 19.1 points in 2019-20. He also averaged 4.1 assists per game and helped put the Sun Devils in position to reach the NCAA Tournament for the third straight year before the season was cancelled due to the coronavirus pandemic.

Martin’s return should put Arizona State among the favorites to win the Pac-12 next season.

Martin joins fellow guard Alonzo Verge Jr. in returning to the Sun Devils after testing the NBA waters. Big man Romello White declared for the draft and later entered the transfer portal.

Hurley has signed one of the program’s best recruiting classes for next season, headed by five-star guard Josh Christopher.

Michigan State forward Xavier Tillman will remain in the 2020 NBA Draft

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In the end, Xavier Tillman Sr.’s decision whether or not to return to remain in the 2020 NBA Draft for his senior season came down to security.

A 6-foot-8 forward that averaged 13.7 points, 10.3 boards, 3.0 assists and 2.1 blocks this past season, Tillman was an NBC Sports third-team All-American a season ago. He’s projected as the No. 23 pick in the latest NBC Sports mock draft. He was the best NBA prospect that had yet to make a decision on his future until Sunday.

That’s when Tillman announced that he will be foregoing his final season of college eligibility to head to the NBA.

In the end, it’s probably the right decision, but it’s not one that the big fella made easily.

Tillman is unlike most college basketball players forced to make a decision on their basketball future. He is married. He has two kids, a three-year old daughter and a six-month old son. This is not a situation where he can bet on himself, head to the pro ranks and figure it out later on.

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He needs something stable, particularly given the fact that we are living in the midst of a pandemic that has put the future of sports in doubt, at least for the short term.

He needs security.

He needed to know that there would be a job for him in the NBA. Not a two-way contract. Not a spot on a camp roster or a chance to develop in the G League. Hell, there might not even be a G League next season. That was an option at Michigan State. He was living in an apartment with his family that was covered by his scholarship and stipend. He had meals paid for. He was able to take food from the training room home and have dinner with his family. He was able to get to class, to the gym, to practice and back home in time to do the dishes at night. He told NBC Sports in March that the school was able to provide him with $1,200-a-month to help pay for things like diapers high chairs. That was all going to be there if he returned to school. It was a great situation, one that lacked the uncertainty that comes with the professional level.

Because as much as I love Tillman as a role player at the next level, NBA teams do not all feel the same. The tricky thing about the draft is that it makes sense to swing for the fences on the guys that can be locked into salaries for the first four years of a contract. The Toronto Raptors took Pascal Siakam with the 27th pick and have paid less than $7 million in total salary in his first four years for a player that made an all-star team. Kyle Kuzma is averaging 16.0 points through three seasons and is on the books for $3.5 million in year four.

Tillman’s ability to defend, his basketball IQ, his play-making and his professional demeanor means that he can step into the modern NBA and do a job as a rotation player for just about any team in the league. But he doesn’t have the upside that other bigs in the same projected range have — Jalen Smith, Daniel Oturu, Jaden McDaniels, Zeke Nnaji — so there are teams that are scared off.

I don’t get it.

But Tillman’s decision to head to the professional ranks indicates that he does, indeed, feel confident in the fact that he will have gainful and steady employment next season. Since he would have walked at Michigan State’s graduation in May had it been held, that doesn’t leave much to return to school for.

The Spartans will now be left in a tough spot. There are quite a few pieces to like on this roster. Rocket Watts had promising moments as a freshman, as did Malik Hall. Gabe Brown and Marcus Bingham are both talented players. Joey Hauser had a good season at Marquette, and the early returns on freshman Mady Sissoko are promising. But this is going to be a young and unproven group.

Izzo has had less at his disposal before, but this is certainly not an ideal situation for Michigan State.