Maybe Big 12 coaches are into tempo-free statistics. They sure vote that way.
The league’s coaches tabbed K-State as the preseason favorite to win the men’s title in 2010-11, followed by Kansas, Texas and Baylor. Oklahoma and Iowa State are tabbed to finish last.
In a nice bit of symmetry – or mere coincidence – Dan Hanner’s efficiency model predicted nearly the exact same results. Check it out.
1. Kansas State Kansas State
2. Kansas Kansas
3. Baylor Texas
4. Texas A&M Baylor
5. Missouri Missouri
6. Texas Texas A&M
7. Texas Tech Texas Tech
8. Oklahoma St. Oklahoma State
9. Colorado Colorado
10. Nebraska Nebraska
11. Iowa State Oklahoma
12. Oklahoma Iowa State
Sure, there are a few differences, but that’s a fairly spot-on pair of predictions. There’s no serious disagreement on where teams land or how they’ll finish. Though it irritates Dan a little bit:
On the one hand, that is very comforting. This model is still in the experimental stage, so it is nice to see the model matches with what others are thinking. On the other hand, the whole point of the statistical model is to identify misperceptions, (things that other folks are over-looking).
A case of collective wisdom matching tempo-free analysis? Perhaps James Surowiecki should look into this.