Conference play is right around the corner, so over the course of the next two weeks, College Basketball Talk will be detailing what some of the country’s best, most intriguing, and thoroughly enigmatic teams should resolve to do with the New Year right around the corner. What can we say, we’re in a giving mood. Thank Jessica Simpson.
VCU PROMISES TO: Consistent production from Melvin Johnson
- It will happen because: VCU has seen an increase in Johnson’s points per game and 3-point makes/attempts this season. The Rams offense is going to keep letting him shoot because he’s: A. their best 3-point option and B. he can get rolling quickly. In the last two games, Johnson has gotten early touches to start each half, resulting in identical 4-of-9 shooting from three in wins over Cincinnati and Eastern Tennessee State. Johnson’s 3-point shooting can help as the season progresses, especially in postseason play. With Johnson out injured last March, the Rams lacked its top shooter in a Round of 64 upset to Stephen F. Austin.
- It won’t happen because: While he can get going quickly, Johnson can be inconsistent. He was 1-of-4 from three against Villanova, 1-of-8 vs. Old Dominion, 1-of-6 in a loss to Virginia and 2-of-9 in 39 minutes in a double overtime win over Northern Iowa. His 3-point shooting can be a lift to VCU’s offense. Havoc has struggled to turn over teams with veteran guards, which limits fast break opportunities. If teams can solve VCU’s full-court pressure they are more than likely to find good looks against its half-court defense, putting VCU in a hole. On nights against top competition, Johnson will need to be firing.
VCU ALSO SWEARS THEY WON’T: Get beat by the three-ball
- It will happen because: This season, VCU has allowed teams to shoot 38 percent from beyond the arc. That’s up from the 30.3 clip Havoc allowed in 2013-14, which ranked 12th best in the country. However, entering the Atlantic 10 — which as a whole has had a lackluster non-conference despite George Washington’s recent win over No. 11 Wichita State — VCU won’t see a lot of great 3-point shooting teams. Of the top-100 3-point shooting teams, only four come from the A10 with the Rams being one of them.
- It won’t happen because: In its three losses — Villanova, Virginia and Old Dominion — VCU’s defense has allowed a combined 22-of-48 from three (46 percent) with the lowest shooting percentage being Villanova, a team that had struggled with its 3-point shooting entering the Legends Classic contest. In its two narrow wins — Illinois State and Norther Iowa — opponents shot a combined 18-of-37. Against better teams, VCU will either need to execute better half-court defense or its press will have to force more turnovers. Villanova didn’t turn the ball over and it turned a two-point halftime lead into a 24-point victory. Old Dominion moved the ball around and got open looks, as did Virginia. VCU’s halfcourt defense has struggled: allowing open looks, slow on rotations with no rim protector.