The NBA Draft is on June 26th, meaning that there are less than a week until the next crop of potential NBA all-stars find out where they will be headed to begin their professional basketball careers. Over the course of the next few days, we will be using the expertise that we’ve gained from watching far too much college basketball to give you our insights on some of these prospects.
Today, we take a look at six first round prospects from this draft will think will be busts in the NBA:
Scott Phillips: “LaVine was head-and-shoulders above every other prospect participating in the NBADraftCombine, but not many potential lottery picks were going through the drills. He’s a ridiculous vertical athlete with a good one-dribble pull-up, but he has no clue how to play the game of basketball. LaVine looked lost in half-court settings and has a step learning curve ahead of him if he wants a long NBA career.”
Raphielle Johnson: “Excellent athlete, but I’m not sold on his ability to run a team at this point in time. Maybe he’ll be best as a combo, but we’ll see.”
Rob Dauster: “Zach LaVine will win any dunk contest that he enters. He’s got three-point range, too. But beyond that, LaVine’s essentially a blank canvas when it comes to basketball. On the one hand, that means that whoever drafts him can mold him into the player they want. It also means it’s up to LaVine to put in the work to reach his admittedly high ceiling. Drafting him is essentially betting on his work ethic.”
RD: “Ennis is dropping on draft boards as we get closer to the big day, and it makes sense. The NBA is trending towards big, elite level athletes at the point, and for all Ennis does well, he’s not on that level athletically. He knows how to play, so I think he’ll be able to hang around for a few years, but I don’t know what he does at an NBA level.”
SP: “Tyler Ennis had a wonderful freshman year at Syracuse, but I don’t think he’s a big-time NBADraft prospect. He’s an average athlete with average shooting percentages (41% FG, 35% 3PT) and that doesn’t even factor the giant question mark he is on the defensive end. With so many elite NBA point guards, I don’t see how Ennis makes a big impact in the league without a good first step or an ability to finish at the rim.”
RJ: “What happens when teams force him to hit perimeter shots? That’s the big question.”
SP: “For being such a highly-touted player and floor leader, Smart never got better at Oklahoma State and never won a NCAA Tournament game in two seasons. His power game won’t translate nearly as well in the NBA and his jump shot needs to improve a lot for him to be a complete weapon on offense.”
RD: “Grant is an elite-level athlete, but he’s stuck in that spot where he’s not really a small forward but not big enough to play along the front line. Does he have a post move? Can he play on the perimeter? What position does he guard?”
SP: “Besides the off-the-court questions that Hairston will face from every team, he’s a bonafide shot-jacker that rarely passes — Hairston averaged less than an assist a game in over 32 minutes a game in the D-League — and is prone to mental lapses on the defensive end. The D-League is filled with professional players, but the structure of the league, especially defensively, leaves a lot to be desired and his scoring numbers could end up being inflated because of this.”
2014 NBA Draft Preview: Five Overrated NBA Draft Prospects
The NBA Draft is on June 26th, meaning that there are less than two weeks until the next crop of potential NBA all-stars find out where they will be headed to begin their professional basketball careers. Over the course of the next few days, we will be using the expertise that we’ve gained from watching far too much college basketball to give you our insights on some of these prospects.
Raphielle Johnson: “He didn’t see much time at the point due to the presence of Kyle Anderson and Bryce Alford. Play the ‘blame game’ if you want about this (especially when concerning Alford, as some have done), but that’s a concern especially given where LaVine has been projected to go in the draft.”
Terrence Payne: “Elite athleticism and the ability to knock down shots make him intriguing for front office executives, but it will be an uphill battle for him to move into a lead guard role.”
Rob Dauster: “Zach LaVine is an absolute freak athletically. He can also shoot the ball from three. But he’s a long way away from being capable on contributing at the next level.”
2. Marcus Smart, Oklahoma State
Projections: DX (No. 4), CF (No. 8)
Scott Phillips: “Marcus Smart’s sophomore-year shooting chart makes me gag. He’s a mediocre catch-and-shoot player and didn’t get much better in between seasons at Oklahoma State. Smart’s shooting percentages are very average, he doesn’t get easy baskets for other players as often as he should and his physicality around the hoop won’t take him as far in the NBA as it did in college.”
RJ: “I’m not worried about the temper at all. What I am worried about is the perimeter shooting, whether it’s on the catch or off the dribble in pick and roll situations.”
TP: “The ex-Oklahoma State guard has incredible physical tools, and he likely makes an impact right away on the defensive end of the floor. However, he failed to improve his jumper after returning for a sophomore season.”
3. Mitch McGary, Michigan
Projections: DX (No. 30), CF (No. 2nd round)
RD: “McGary had one good month at the collegiate level, and he was successful because he was bigger, stronger and outworked opposing big men. He can’t rely on that in the NBA. He’s also 22 and already has a bad back.”
RJ: “The back is fine, but how much work is there to do from an offensive skill set standpoint? Will he be able to get points with his back to the basket? That will take some time.”
SP: “Between the back injury and his advanced age — he’s already 22 years old, which is ancient for a NBA rookie — it doesn’t look good for McGary’s draft stock. McGary might have been a lottery pick after his freshman season, but it was based off of a NCAA Tournament run and not an entire season of consistent production, which he never showed at the college level.”
4. Jerami Grant, Syracuse
Projections: DX (No. 27), CF (No. 25)
SP: “I still don’t know what he does well or how it translates to the NBA? Grant is a tremendous athlete with some upside, but his skill level is mediocre and he doesn’t have a fit in the NBA. Grant is far away from being a solid all-around player or even a rotational player with some skill that will earn him minutes.”
RJ: “Given Syracuse’s lack of scoring one would think his offensive skill set would have expanded last year. Not sure that was the case, and that’s a concern.”
5. Doug McDermott, Creighton
Projections: DX (No. 8), CF (No. 9)
SP: “I can see Doug McDermott having a nice, long NBA career, but a top-10 pick in a draftlike this? I just don’t see it. McDermott has struggled a bit with length in his career and there’s still the question of who he defends at the next level? That’s not taking away from McDermott’s prolific college career or his natural scoring acumen, but he has a long ways to go to be a well-rounded pro forward.”
RD: “I can see McDermott turning into some combination of Danny Green, Jason Kapono and Mike Miller. I think he’ll have a long career as a role player in the NBA. I’m not sure he should be a top ten pick.”
A familiar refrain from Syracuse fans as much of the nation expressed concern about their offense in ACC play was that the 11th-ranked Orange were still an efficient group, ranking 28th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency per Ken Pomeroy’s numbers. But there’s no denying the fact that Syracuse was having issues making shots, and that was once again the case as they lost 66-63 to N.C. State in an ACC tournament quarterfinal.
Syracuse made just 32.7% of its shots from the field, with leading scorer C.J. Fair scoring nine points on 3-for-16 shooting. Tyler Ennis scored 21 points but did so on 6-for-18 shooting, with N.C. State’s Anthony Barber being assigned that defensive responsibility for a decent portion of the night, and Trevor Cooney (he sprained his ankle in the first half) made just one of his six shot attempts. The only starter to score in an efficient manner was Jerami Grant, who scored 19 points on 5-for-7 shooting.
Unfortunately for Syracuse, the shooting percentages show that this can’t be passed off as the Orange simply having a bad night from the field. In their last eight games Syracuse has shot 40% or better from the field just twice, in wins over Maryland (40%) and Florida State (48.5%). Their defense will keep games close, and that was once again the case Friday night, but the question of whether or not Syracuse can consistently knock down shots is a big concern heading into the NCAA tournament.
With that being an issue Syracuse has been able to take advantage of the offensive glass, rebounding 37.2% of their misses against ACC opponents entering Friday, and they corralled 15 of their misses against N.C. State (five came in that wild sequence in the game’s final seconds). Removing that last sequence the Orange scored just 11 second-chance points on those ten offensive rebounds, and N.C. State was just a minus-4 (seven second-chance points) in that statistical category.
Ennis, Fair and Grant are still to be respected, as all are gifted enough to make opponents pay when they’re on. But the percentages can’t be ignored when discussing Syracuse’s chances of getting to the Final Four. Regardless of where they’re seeded, Syracuse needs to regain its offensive “mojo” and quickly.