Category: 2012 regional breakdowns


The CBT Bracket Breakdown: Midwest Region

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See the rest of our regional breakdowns here.

Final Four Favorite: No. 1 North Carolina: The Tar Heels have as much talent on their roster as any team in the country. They are loaded, and they have a point guard that is perfect for the uptempo system that they run. The question I have about UNC has to do with their toughness. They get smacked by Florida State twice, largely because the Seminoles were more physical than UNC. One thing to follow with the Tar Heels heading into the NCAA Tournament is whether or not John Henson’s wrist is healthy. I believe that it is. While he didn’t play in the ACC Tournament final, he was available to play.

And if they lose…?: No. 2 Kansas: For the first time, the tournament selection committee released their s-curve on Selection Sunday, which allowed us to see where they actually had teams ranked. Kansas was fifth, meaning that if Ohio State had won the Big Ten Tournament, Kansas and not Michigan State would have been the final No. 1 seed. Thomas Robinson is a hoss and Jeff Withey is a defensive playmaker, but Tyshawn Taylor is going to be the guy that determines how far Kansas goes. When he’s great, Kansas is very, very good. But when he’s the inconsistent turnover machine that he’s been at times throughout his career, the Jayhawks are very ordinary.

Sweet 16 sleeper (9 or lower): No. 14 Belmont: One of the trendiest upset picks since the bracket was announced was the Bruins knocking off Georgetown. While I, personally, don’t see it — its just not a good matchup — the fact of the matter is that Belmont is a very good basketball team. They push the tempo through pressure and they shoot a lot of threes. When those threes are going down, they are good enough to pick off a higher-seeded team.

Final Four sleeper (5 or lower): No. 5 Temple: The Owls have flown under the radar for much of the season, but this is a good basketball team. They have a dangerous perimeter attack, with two of the best scorers in the Atlantic 10 in Ramone Moore and Khalif Wyatt, and they now have their starting center Michael Eric back in the fold. The thing about the Owls this season is that they aren’t as perimeter oriented as they have been in the past. They push the ball more and they are oriented around their ability to put up points.

Player to watch (top 8 seeds): Jamaal Franklin, San Diego State: Franklin was rightfully chosen as the Player of the Year in the Mountain West. An athletic, 6’5″ slasher, Franklin not only is capable of going for 30 points on a given night, but he averaged 9.9 rpg in league play. SDSU’s issue is their lack of interior size, and his ability to clean the glass is a hugely important.

Player to watch (bottom 8 seeds): DJ Cooper, Ohio: Cooper has already led the Bobcats to a first round upset in the NCAA Tournament, going for 23 points and eight assists as Ohio beat Georgetown in 2010. Did I mention he was a freshman then? Ohio is a dangerous team for Michigan. They are excellent at defending the three, something that Michigan thrives on. And Cooper is an excellent on-ball defender, meaning he will likely get the assignment of covering Trey Burke.

Best potential matchup: No. 1 North Carolina vs. No. 2 Kansas: Again, I know this is a cop out, but with the lack of elite teams outside of the top two seeds, its really difficult to find marquee matchups to get excited out. What I love about this matchup — besides the fact that it will be between two of college basketball’s blue-blooded programs — is the idea of seeing Jeff Withey and Thomas Robinson do battle with John Henson and Tyler Zeller. I love me a good post battle, and it may not get better than this in the 2012 NCAA Tournament.

So who is getting upset?:

– I think Ohio has a very good chance to take down Michigan. The Wolverines looked very average in the Big Ten tournament, and they are very average when they don’t hit threes. Ohio is very good at defending the three.

– If Cal can get by USF in the play-in game, I think they have a chance to knock off Temple. The Bears have one of the best perimeter defenders in Jorge Gutierrez and have been written off by a lot of folks due to their loss to Missouri by 30 earlier in the year.

– Frankly, I’m not buying the two trendy upset picks in this region. I don’t think Belmont gets past Georgetown. The Bruins shoot a ton of threes and shoot them well, but Georgetown has terrific perimeter length and is one of the best in the country at defending the three. I also think SDSU gets by NC State. I know the pro-Wolfpack arguments, but what have they done this season to make me believe they can win a tournament game against the co-champ of the fourth-best conference in the country?

Rob Dauster is the editor of the college basketball website Ballin’ is a Habit. You can find him on twitter @robdauster.

The CBT Bracket Breakdown: West Region

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See the rest of our regional breakdowns here.

Final Four Favorite: No. 1 Michigan State: Here’s a crazy stat for you: Tom Izzo has had a No. 1 seed in East Lansing three times in his career — 1999, 2000 and 2001. Thats right. This is the first time in 11 years that Izzo had has a No. 1 seed. There’s a reason that everyone talks about him as the best tournament coach in the country. What I like about the Spartans this season is that they are the perfect team for the style he likes to play. They defend, they rebound and they are led by the player with the bluest collar in the country in Draymond Green. Losing Branden Dawson hurts, but they still won the Big Ten Tournament without him.

And if they lose…?: No. 2 Missouri: The Tigers were sensational all season long because of how difficult it is to matchup with them with Kim English at the four. That is going to make them a tough team to prepare for. The Tigers also have arguably the best perimeter attack in the country, led by Phil Pressey, Michael Dixon and Marcus Denmon. The one issue I see is that the teams in Missouri’s way actually match up with them fairly well — Florida and Marquette are both just as versatile.

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Sweet 16 sleeper (9 or lower): No. 12 Long Beach State: LBSU has one of the best point guards in the country at any level in Casper Ware. He’s going to be an NBA player. Mark it down now. And he’s not alone — TJ Robinson is a double-double machine, James Ennis is a terrific athlete and Michael Caffey is going to be a great player in the Big West. The question for LBSU is going to be whether or not Larry Anderson is healthy. He’s their best defender.

Final Four sleeper (5 or lower): No. 8 Memphis: I’m a bit upset with the fact that Memphis got an eight seed. Not because it wasn’t deserved — hey, you want a better seed, then win more games — but because the Tigers are playing some great basketball right now. Will Barton is an all-american, Wesley Witherspoon is finally playing hard and Joe Jackson looks like the Joe Jackson we all expected from day one. The problem? They have a date with Michigan State scheduled in the round of 32.

source: AP

Player to watch (top 8 seeds): Isaiah Canaan, Murray State: If you haven’t seen Canaan play, you are doing yourself a disservice. He can flat out score, and while he’s not on the level of Jimmer, he’s close. He’s one of the best shooters in the country and he’s not opposed to firing away from 25 feet off the dribble. When he’s hot, watch out.

Player to watch (bottom 8 seeds): Scott Machado, Iona: I don’t think that Iona was deserving of getting into the tournament, but the fact that they did is not a bad thing. They can score with any team in the country, and it’s because they have Machado running the show. He’s up there with Kendall Marshall when it comes to players that are worth watching because of their ability to pass the ball.

Best potential matchup: No. 2 Missouri vs. No. 3 Marquette: I can’t stress how much fun this matchup would be. Marquette is one of the few teams in the country that is as versatile as Missouri. The Tigers would be in big trouble if this matchup comes to fruition because Jaw Crowder is big enough to take advantage of the matchup with Kim English inside but athletic enough to stay with him on the perimeter. Both teams play pressuring defense and can get out and run the floor. Marcus Denmon and Darius Johnson-Odom are two of the best two-guards in the country.

So who is getting upset?:

– New Mexico is capable of beating Michigan State. They can really defend and they have a number of shooters on the perimeter. I didn’t have space to write about the Lobos here, but they are really, really good.

– I think Florida can knock off Missouri in the second round. Both have terrific guards and play a similar style offensively. Also, Florida is perfectly comfortable putting Brad Beal at the four and putting a lineup on the floor that is similar to Missouri’s.

– The pod Murray State is playing in is in Louisville. Can the Racers and Isaiah Canaan get to the Sweet 16? Can they beat Marquette?

Rob Dauster is the editor of the college basketball website Ballin’ is a Habit. You can find him on twitter @robdauster.

The CBT Bracket Breakdown: East Region

12mens_bracket East
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See the rest of our regional breakdowns here.

Final Four Favorite: No. 1 Syracuse: For the last couple of months of the season, the Orange have been the consensus second best team in the country. They have their issues — defensive rebounding, for one — but this is a group that is as talented and balanced as any team in the country. They legitimately have six starters on their roster, with CJ Fair and Dion Waiters coming off the bench, and selfless enough as a unit that they can deal with whoever is struggling riding the bench. That said, its their defense that is going to carry them as far as they’ll go.

And if they lose…?: No. 2 Ohio State: The issues that I have had with Ohio State all season long are still quite present. William Buford is not consistent enough as a secondary scoring option and Aaron Craft is not as effective when he is counted on to be more than a facilitator and a defender. That said, Jared Sullinger is still Jared Sullinger, and he’s good enough to lead the Buckeyes. If Deshaun Thomas and Buford are productive, watch out.

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Sweet 16 sleeper (9 or lower): No. 13 Montana: A lot of people would put Harvard in this spot, and I wouldn’t blame them. But the Grizzlies are intriguing to me. They have one of the best back courts in the region with Will Cherry and Kareem Jamar and they have enough size up to hang with some of the bigger schools. Cherry is also a terrific defender. Montana gets Wisconsin in the first round, so Jordan Taylor beware.

Final Four sleeper (5 or lower): No. 5 Vanderbilt: The Commodores are the most interesting team in this region of the bracket. From a talent perspective, they should be a top two or three seed. They have two first round picks on their perimeter in John Jenkins and Jeff Taylor and a big man in Festus Ezeli that will play in the NBA. The issue with Vanderbilt is that they have almost had a culture of losing. They’ve gotten dropped in the first round of the NCAA Tournament a few times recently and they’ve been notoriously incapable of winning big games. But they just beat Kentucky. Does that get them over the hump? Are they “fixed”?

Player to watch (top 8 seeds): Jordan Taylor, Wisconsin: Taylor hasn’t exactly had the season we all expected him to, but that doesn’t change the fact that he is one of the best point guards in the country. And he means everything for the Badgers. He’s the reason they can control tempo and he’s the guy who gets the ball put into his hands at the end of a shot clock.

source: Getty Images

Player to watch (bottom 8 seeds): Andrew Nicholson, St. Bonaventure: Nicholson proved himself during the Atlantic 10 Tournament, averaged 23.7 ppg, 10.0 rpg and 5.3 bpg as he led the Bonnies to the conference’s automatic bid. He also probably played himself into the first round of the NBA Draft. The problem? His first game will be against Florida State and Bernard James.

I would also be remiss if I didn’t mention Kevin Jones. He’s an all-american that led the Big East in scoring and rebounding. The kid can play.

Best potential matchup: No. 1 Syracuse vs. No. 2 Ohio State: I know it’s a bit of a cop out to pick the top two teams, but this is a matchup that really intrigues me. Jared Sullinger is the most dominant presence on the block in the country, but Syracuse is loaded up front. I’d love to see Aaron Craft try and defend Dion Waiters and Scoop Jardine. Deshaun Thomas could be a perfect option at the high post against the Syracuse zone. I could go on and on.

So who is getting upset?:

– I think Montana knocking off Wisconsin is an obvious pick, and one that will be trendy this week.

– If they make to to the second round, I like Cincinnati over Florida State as well.

– Everyone is going to pick Vanderbilt over Harvard, and I like Harvard. They have good bigs and a very underrated point guard in Brandyn Curry. I just don’t see it this season. Sorry, Harvard.

– Keep an eye on Kansas State and Syracuse in the Round of 32. Syracuse is terrible on the defensive glass and Kansas State is as good as anyone in the country when it comes to getting second chance points.

Rob Dauster is the editor of the college basketball website Ballin’ is a Habit. You can find him on twitter @robdauster.