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ACC Conference Reset: How many contenders are there?

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College basketball’s non-conference season is finally coming to a close.

To help you shake off post-holiday haze and the hangover of losing in your fantasy football playoffs, we’ll be providing you with some midseason primers to get you caught up on all the nation’s most important conferences.

Who has been the best player in the biggest leagues?

Who is on track to get an NCAA tournament bid?

What have we learned about the conference hierarchy, and what is left for us to figure out?

We break it all down here.

Today, we’ll be taking a look at the ACC.

MIDSEASON ACC PLAYER OF THE YEAR: Marvin Bagley III

He’s getting overshadowed some by fellow freshman Trae Young, but Bagley has been awesome this season. He’s averaging 21.2 points and 10.9 rebounds while shooting 61.7 percent from the floor and a respectable 34.6 percent from 3-point range for a 6-foot-11 forward. He’s gone into Duke and been dominant, helping the Blue Devils to a 12-1 record while easing the burden – and dimming the spotlight – on Grayson Allen. If Duke wins its sixth national championship, Bagley very well could be the reason why.

THE ALL-ACC FIRST TEAM

  • MARVIN BAGLEY, Duke
  • BONZIE COLSON, Notre Dame: The 6-foot-6 power forward is one of the most fun watches in college basketball. The senior is at the height of his powers, averaging 21.3 points on 54.1 percent shooting
  • LUKE MAYE, North Carolina: He’s averaging a double-double of 18.1 points and 10.5 rebounds a year after putting up 5.5 and 3.9, respectively. Pretty clear he’s no NCAA tournament fluke.
  • GRAYSON ALLEN, Duke: It’s nice to only be talking about Allen’s game after last season’s tripping-induced meltdown. His 137.1 offensive rating is by far a career best, as is his 45.2 percent mark from 3-point range.
  • KYLE GUY, Virginia: The top knot may be gone, but Guy’s production has stayed with the new haircut. He’s getting buckets in bunches while carrying a big offensive load for the Cavaliers.

POSTSEASON PREDICTIONS

  • NCAA: Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, Miami, Clemson, Notre Dame, Florida State, Louisville
  • NIT: Virginia Tech, Syracuse, North Carolina State
  • OTHER/NO POSTSEASON: Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh, Boston College
Marvin Bagley III (Steve Dykes/Getty Images)

THREE THINGS WE’VE LEARNED

1. VIRGINIA STAYS VIRGINIA: Tony Bennett’s program continues to be one of the most consistent in the country. The losses of Malcolm Brogdon and Anthony Gill led to a 23-11 season and a five-seed in the NCAA tournament last year. The Cavaliers looked prime for a slip with the graduate of London Perrantes and the transfer of Marial Shayok, but instead they’re 11-1 and an established ACC frontrunner.

Of course, Kyle Guy’s offense and Devon Hall’s emergence on that end of the floor has been huge, but it’s all about defense with the Cavaliers. They’re allowing an opponent effective field goal percentage of 42.4, seventh in the country. That’s powered by an opponent 2-point shooting percentage of 39.9, an absurdly low number. The pack-line just produces, or, rather, stops others from producing.

2. THIS DUKE TEAM LOOKS FAMILIAR: A truly special group of freshmen – including a dominant big man, an efficient point guard and a dynamic wing – surrounding a special senior. The Duke of 2017-18 is looking suspiciously like Mike Krzyzewski’s 2014-15 team that cut down the nets at Lucas Oil Stadium.

The separation between the two right now is defense – the Blue Devils currently rank 73rd in adjusted defense – but that 2015 group was pretty brutal on that end of the floor as well until its NCAA tournament run rocketed them up the rankings. If Duke continues to rate as the country’s best offense, the defense only has to get marginally better for this Duke team’s season to finish in the same manner as 2015’s.

3. LUKE MAYE IS A STAR: Maye’s career path is astounding. He went from agreeing to initially walk-on at North Carolina to barely playing as a freshman to being a rarely-used reserve as a sophomore who became a sensation with his breakout play in UNC’s run to through the NCAA tournament to a national championship last year. He’s proving he’s no novelty act this season.

Maye is averaging a double-double while shooting 52.8 percent from the floor and 45.9 percent from 3-point range. He’s adding in 2.5 assists and 1.1 blocks per game too for good measure. He’s not a complete rags-to-riches story as Maye had plenty of high-major offers coming out of high school, but his development – in conjunction with his expanded role – is something rarely seen in the college game today, especially at a blue blood like North Carolina.

Luke Maye (Steve Dykes/Getty Images)

THREE STORYLINES TO FOLLOW

1. HOW MANY CONTENDERS ARE THERE?: Duke is probably the consensus favorite to win the ACC, but the conference looks strong at the top. How many teams can legitimately lay claim to contender status? Right now, the number looks like six, including the Blue Devils.

Virginia’s case has already been laid out above. The Cavs are going to defend, and that’s going to give them a shot. The Tar Heels, a loss to Wofford notwithstanding, look a worthy successor to last year’s title team. Miami’s defense looks legit, Clemson has wins over Ohio State, Florida and South Carolina while Notre Dame and Florida State have looked intriguing enough.The bottom of the league may be soft, but the top will be a brawl.

2. WHAT’S NEXT FOR LOUISVILLE?: David Padgett and the Cardinals are 10-2, but their best win is over an Indiana team that already has six losses (shoutout to Indiana State and Fort Wayne). Against their only other real competition, Purdue and Seton Hall, Louisville lost by nine and two points, respectively. So, how good is this team?

Here’s betting they’re somewhere around “meh.” The offense hasn’t really hummed all year, and the defensive numbers are probably inflated by substandard competition. With a mediocre offense and a good-but-probably-not-great defense, Louisville is probably on track for the bubble. Then begins the incredibly intriguing situation regarding its coaching position.`

3. COACHES ON THE HOT SEAT: Clemson’s Brad Brownell and Boston College’s Jim Christian both entered the season under some serious pressure to win. The Tigers made the NCAA tournament in Brownell’s first season, 2010-11, but haven’t since while Christian’s Eagles had six ACC wins in his first three seasons, including an 0-18 campaign in 2016.

Both are off to strong starts – Clemson is 11-1 while BC is 10-3 with a win over Duke – but both their futures will likely be decided in how the next three months play out. What’s good enough? For Clemson, it’s probably a tourney birth. For Boston College, the bar is probably competency and competitiveness in the ACC. The other situation to monitor is Pitt. Kevin Stallings is in just his second year, but season No. 1 was something of a debacle and this campaign already features losses to Navy and Montana. If the Panthers can’t hang in the ACC, it wouldn’t be shocking to hear the drum beat from Pitt fans to give Stallings an early hook gain some momentum.

THREE PREDICTIONS

1. BONZIE FOR PLAYER OF THE YEAR: Marvin Bagley is the best player in the conference, but here’s betting that Colson gets the nod for ACC Player of the Year. Colson is going to put up big numbers, Notre Dame should be pretty good and voters will probably break any ties by giving the nod to a senior with a distinguished career over a freshman who was never destined to spend more than a few months on campus. Right, wrong or indifferent, that’s the way it often works. And Colson is awesome, so he could just win the thing going away.

2. DAVID PADGETT DOESN’T KEEP THE LOUISVILLE GIG: Padgett has done a good job in a bad situation. He’s kept Louisville together despite the turmoil that’s inherent to the circumstances of losing a Hall of Fame coach and athletic director amidst the fallout of a federal investigation into corruption in college basketball (what an amazing sentence, tbh). The Cardinals are playing well and go into tonight’s game against Kentucky with a puncher’s chance. Still, it seems unlikely he’ll win enough to force Louisville to keep him on, and given the expectations in the program and fan base, that would seem to be the only way they hire a 32-year-old with no previous head coaching experience on full time.

3. N.C. STATE WILL SURPRISE: The Wolfpack raised some eyebrows when they knocked off Arizona, but that proved to be more about the Wildcats as it tipped off their three-game losing streak. NC State followed it up with losses to Northern Iowa and Tennessee, and then dropped one to Greensboro. So, not exactly a completely promising non-conference slate for Kevin Keatts’ group. They’re still kind of intriguing, though, The offense is pretty good, the defense seemingly has to get better and there’s plenty of talent on the roster. The Wolfpack probably won’t immediately figure it out and become an NCAA tournament shoe-in, but look for them to jump up and cause some problems for the league’s top teams.

Weekend Preview: Big East showdown headlines an interesting slate of games

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SATURDAY’S SHOWDOWNS

*(NOTE: Lines are not posted for Saturday or Sunday games as of publication. Spreads referenced are via Kenpom.com)

No. 11 XAVIER at No. 19 SETON HALL (-1), Sat. 2:30 p.m. (FOX)

The only game this weekend featuring two teams that are currently ranked in the top 25, Xavier and Seton Hall square off in a battle of programs trending in opposite directions. Now that Trevon Bluiett has rediscovered his shooting stroke, the Musketeers have reeled off back-to-back wins, including a beatdown of then-No. 25 Creighton. Seton Hall, on the other hand, lost by a combined 37 points at Marquette and Creighton in the last 11 days and struggled with a Georgetown team that was down 44 points at home against Villanova.

  • PREDICTION: Xavier’s new starting lineup will be interesting. The Musketeers are much more offensively oriented right now, but Kerem Kanter and Naji Marshall are not exactly known for their defense and physicality. Seton Hall has a big, old, tough and strong front line. I think they get this win they badly needed in front of a packed out. Seton Hall (-1)

No. 14 ARIZONA (-5) at STANFORD, Sat. 4:00 p.m. (CBS)

First place in the Pac-12 is on the line as 5-1 Arizona squares off with 5-1 Stanford. And yes, you read that correctly. In their last five games in league play, the Cardinal have swept the LA schools at home, the Washington schools on the road and beaten Arizona State in their place. Now they get the best team in the Pac-12. Stanford is healthy and playing the best basketball they’ve played in a long, long time.

  • PREDICTION: If Stanford is getting five points at home I am all over the Cardinal. The problem is that I don’t think they will be. KenPom’s projections don’t factor in that Stanford is healthy and hot. I think the line will be closer to Stanford (-2), and I would still probably take them. Stanford (-5)

FLORIDA at No. 18 KENTUCKY (-3), Sat. 8:15 p.m.

This matchup is fascinating. Two teams that still have quite figured things out that play polar opposite styles of basketball. Florida is loaded with quick, veteran guards that fire up threes. Kentucky is loaded big, athletic forwards that can’t really shoot. Coming off of a loss at South Carolina, I think this game is probably more important for Kentucky, who finally looks like they are going to be healthy.

  • PREDICTION: Can Kentucky overwhelm Florida with their size or will the Gators exploit the mismatches with their guards? That answer really comes down to whether or not the Gators get hot from deep. I’m going to guess that they will since they have a tendency to show up in big games. Florida (+3)

WHAT ELSE IS THERE TO WATCH?

  • No. 1 Villanova (-17) at UConn, Sat. 12:00 p.m. (CBS): The big question in this game for me, beyond “Will UConn lose by enough for UConn to fire Kevin Ollie on the spot?”, is whether or not Villanova is the elite team in college basketball that we swear doesn’t exist. Villanova (-17)
  • No. 7 Wichita State (-1) at Houston, Sat. 12:00 p.m. (ESPNU): The Shockers have turned into a defensive liability out of nowhere, and on Saturday they will be traveling to visit a Houston team that badly needs this win. Wichita State (-1)
  • No. 4 Oklahoma (-3) at Oklahoma State, Sat. 2:00 p.m. (ESPN): Trae Young hasn’t been right for a couple of weeks, and now he gets a rival on the road. Is this the game that he figures it out? Oklahoma (-3)
  • BAYLOR at No. 10 KANSAS (-8), Sat. 6:00 p.m. (ESPN): Kansas has actually had some issues at home this season, more than they’ve had on the road. Baylor tends to play the Jayhawks tough. Is this a letdown spot after that massive win at West Virginia? Kansas (-8)

No. 10 Jayhawks back on top of Big 12 with fresh approach

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LAWRENCE, Kan. (AP) — The hallmarks of Kansas under Bill Self over the years have been inside-outside post play and gritty defense, the kind of in-your-shorts man-to-man that leaves opponents gasping for air.

That trusted formula has produced 13 straight Big 12 championships.

But if the No. 10 Jayhawks are going to break a tie with the UCLA teams of the 1960s and ’70s for the most consecutive conference titles, their formula will look quite different this season: They are going to pour in 3-pointers, race around the court and simply outscore their foes.

“I do think you can get tougher. I do think you can get harder. I do think you can become more competitive and learn how to compete as you go,” Self said, “but the reality of it is we’re not changing right now playing four guards. Our second-best rebounder is 6-foot-5, 180 pounds. We’re not changing that. We’re not changing our next-best rebounder weighs 200 pounds. We’re not changing that fact.

“We’re playing four really average-sized guards,” Self said. “We’re not going to change that.”

So, best to adapt to it.

It helps that those four guards — Devonte Graham, Svi Mykhailiuk, Lagerald Vick and Malik Newman — form one of the best backcourts in the nation. Graham is a do-everything floor general, Mykhailiuk one of the best sharpshooters in the nation, Vick the most athletic of the bunch and Newman is capable of getting to the rim with as quick of a first step as anybody in the league.

It also helps that they’re experienced: Graham and Mykhailiuk are seniors with three title rings on their fingers, Vick is a junior and Newman is a third-year sophomore who redshirted last season.

Together, they’ve led the Jayhawks (15-3, 5-1) to four consecutive wins, including road wins over then-No. 16 TCU and sixth-ranked West Virginia. They’ve pushed Kansas back to the top of the league standings headed into Saturday’s game against Baylor, and back into the discussion of a No. 1 seed for the NCAA Tournament when the bracket is revealed in about six weeks.

In other words, they have Kansas right where it is accustomed to being.

But the route has been much different, and that was evident in the Jayhawks’ comeback victory over the Mountaineers on Monday night. Graham and Mykhailiuk combined for 20 of their final 26 points, most of them on 3s and pull-up jumpers — each of them knocked down three from beyond the arc.

The comeback in years past would have featured a big man such as Darrell Arthur or Thomas Robinson in the post, or an elite guard such as Frank Mason III going right to the rim.

Different styles, even if the results have been the same.

“I think we assume some things because of the past,” Self said. “You look at the past, I mean, Landen Lucas was tough. We’re not replacing him with the same toughness. Josh Jackson was a monster. He was an assassin. We’re not replacing him with the same type of mentality. Certainly, you can’t match Frank’s mentality in that area. Which is OK. We were so spoiled with that in the past.”

Those past teams may have had bruising big men, tough guard play and pure scorers all over the floor, and they may have been one of the best defensive teams in the country. But they also had deficiencies, and in many cases, they are the same areas where this year’s team excels.

The Jayhawks have already hit 195 shots from beyond the arc, tops in the Big 12, and are shooting 41 percent from that range. They are among the league leaders in assists and shooting percentage, numbers that help to offset the fact that Kansas ranks ninth out of 10 teams in the league in rebounding.

“We’re going to be scrappy, tough. We got to do a way better job of rebounding, obviously,” Graham said. “But yeah, basically we’ve just got to get way tougher, like I’ve been saying.”

That toughness could get a boost now that Silvio De Souza, a five-star prospect from Florida’s IMG Academy, has been cleared to play. He graduated in December and promptly joined the Jayhawks, and Self is hopeful the big man will be up to speed by the time February rolls around.

It could get another boost if Billy Preston, another five-star prospect, is ever cleared. The school and NCAA have been looking into the ownership of a car he was driving on campus last fall.

In the meantime, the Jayhawks head into their game against the Bears on Saturday riding a win streak, winning high-scoring affairs thanks to 3-pointers and an offensive flair.

“We don’t have the same team we’ve had in the past,” Self said, “and we have to understand that.”

TCU PG Jaylen Fisher to miss rest of season following knee surgery

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FORT WORTH, Texas — TCU point guard Jaylen Fisher had surgery Thursday to repair a meniscus tear in his right knee and will miss the rest of the season for the No. 24 Horned Frogs.

Fisher got hurt Tuesday, the second time in less than six months he injured a knee in practice. He had surgery after a meniscus tear in his left knee in early August.

The sophomore guard missed the team’s trip to Australia after the previous surgery, but was ready for the regular season. He averaged 12.1 points and was fifth in the Big 12 with 5.4 assists while playing the first 17 games. He had a career-high 22 points in an overtime loss Saturday at No. 4 Oklahoma, and he made 11 of 20 shots from 3-point range his last four games.

Fisher will need three to four months of recovery.

“I feel bad for him. We all feel bad for him,” coach Jamie Dixon said.

Even with his knee locked in a bent position and having to use crutches, Fisher attended TCU’s 96-73 home win over Iowa State on Wednesday night. He sat in a chair near the TCU bench.

Bracketology: Searching for No. 1 seeds

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That search for No. 1 seeds?  It may take a while.  We have some very good basketball teams.  But, at least to this point, we’re absent that handful of elite teams we’ve seen in recent years.  So if you’re writing teams on seed lines – including the top line – you might want to use a pencil.

Kansas is squarely back in the race after beating West Virginia in Morgantown.  And keep eye on North Carolina, too.  The Tar Heels are quietly putting together the type of profile that Selection Committee members traditionally like.  They currently own the No. 1 overall SOS (strength of schedule) in the nation, and have six wins over “tourney” teams in today’s bracket update.

Here’s the latest:

UPDATED: January 19, 2018

FIRST FOUR PAIRINGS – Dayton (First Round)

  • LSU vs. SMU | Midwest Region
  • Texas AM vs. UCLA West Region
  • ROBERT MORRIS vs. NC A&T | East Region
  • FLA GULF COAST vs. JACKSON ST | Midwest Region

BRACKET PROJECTION

EAST Boston                           MIDWEST – Omaha     
Pittsburgh Detroit
1) VILLANOVA 1) PURDUE
16) NC A&T / ROB MORRIS 16) FL GULF CST / JACKSON ST
8) Louisville 8) Miami-FL
9) Georgia 9) Providence
San Diego Boise
5) RHODE ISLAND 5) Arizona State
12) SOUTH DAKOTA ST 12) NEW MEXICO ST
4) Ohio State 4) CINCINNATI
13) BUFFALO 13) LOUISIANA
Dallas Nashville
6) Tennessee 6) TCU
11) Notre Dame 11) LSU / SMU
3) Texas Tech 3) Clemson
14) VERMONT 14) WILLIAM & MARY
Nashville Wichita
7) Michigan 7) Florida
10) Missouri 10) Butler
2) North Carolina 2) KANSAS
15) IONA 15) MONTANA
WEST – Los Angeles SOUTH – Atlanta
Charlotte Charlotte
1) Duke 1) VIRGINIA
16) PENNSYLVANIA 16) BUCKNELL
8) Texas 8) SAINT MARY’S
9) Arkansas 9) Marquette
Boise Dallas
5) Seton Hall 5) Michigan State
12) Texas AM / UCLA 12) MISSOURI STATE
4) Wichita State 4) AUBURN
13) BELMONT 13) E. TENNESSEE ST
San Diego Detroit
6) Creighton 6) Gonzaga
11) WESTERN KENTUCKY 11) NC State
3) ARIZONA 3) Xavier
14) S.F. AUSTIN 14) WRIGHT STATE
Wichita Pittsburgh
7) NEVADA 7) Kentucky
10) Alabama 10) Florida State
2) Oklahoma 2) West Virginia
15) CS-FULLERTON 15) RADFORD

NOTES on the BRACKET: Villanova is the No. 1 overall seed – followed by Purdue, Virginia, and Duke

Last Four Byes (at large): Florida State, Missouri, NC State, Notre Dame

Last Four IN (at large): LSU, Texas AM, SMU, UCLA

First Four OUT (at large): Washington, Houston, Baylor, Boise State

Next four teams OUT (at large): Syracuse, Maryland, USC, St. Bonaventure

Breakdown by Conference …

ACC (9): VIRGINIA, Duke, North Carolina, Clemson, Louisville, Florida State, Miami-FL, Notre Dame, NC State

SEC (9): AUBURN, Tennessee, Kentucky, Florida, Arkansas, Georgia, Missouri, LSU, Texas AM

Big East (7): VILLANOVA, Xavier, Seton Hall, Creighton, Marquette, Providence, Butler

BIG 12 (6): KANSAS, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Texas Tech, TCU, Texas

Big 10 (4): PURDUE, Ohio State, Michigan State, Michigan

Pac 12 (3): ARIZONA, Arizona State, UCLA

American (3): CINCINNATI, Wichita State, SMU

West Coast (2): SAINT MARY’S, Gonzaga

Atlantic 10 (1): RHODE ISLAND

Mountain West (1): NEVADA

ONE BID LEAGUES: Missouri State (MVC), Iona (MAAC), Western Kentucky (C-USA), Louisiana (SBELT), Penn (IVY), Montana (BSKY), Wright State (HORIZON), S.F. Austin (SLND), East Tennessee State (STHN), UC-Fullerton (BWEST), Buffalo (MAC), Florida Gulf Coast (ASUN), Belmont (OVC), William & Mary (CAA), Radford (BSO), North Carolina A&T (MEAC), South Dakota State (SUM), New Mexico State (WAC), Vermont (AEAST), Bucknell (PAT), Robert Morris (NEC), Jackson State (SWAC)

New coach, healthy star push Buckeyes to unexpected heights

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COLUMBUS, Ohio (AP) — Ohio State’s elimination from the Big Ten tournament by lowly Rutgers last March showed the depths to which Buckeyes basketball had fallen in a just few short seasons.

First-year coach Chris Holtmann showed his players video cuts of that debacle before Sunday’s game, the first against the Scarlet Knights since the tournament. Ohio State then went out and routed Rutgers 68-46 .

On Monday the Buckeyes cracked the AP Top 25 poll for the first time in nearly three years. On Wednesday night they beat Northwestern to improve to 7-0 in the Big Ten — matching the number of conference wins they had all of last season.

Ohio State, 16-4 overall, is tied for first place in the conference with No. 3 Purdue and has forced its way into the NCAA Tournament conversation. Holtmann is the first coach in 95 years to win his first seven Big Ten games.

Who would have thought?

The Buckeyes missed the tournament for the second straight season last year. The loss of three of the top four scorers, transfers and a thin recruiting class led to a gloomy forecast for 2017-18. Thad Matta , who oversaw the rebuilding of Ohio State basketball in his 13 seasons, was fired and Holtmann, who had success at Butler, was brought in.

Holtmann managed to pull some pieces together but Ohio State lacked depth, especially at point guard. The coach did his best in the preseason to keep expectations low for what looked like another lost season.

He’s still trying to temper expectations, but the Buckeyes haven’t yet taken the lumps that he or anybody else were sure would come.

“Any coach that, through a third of the season, went undefeated would have to say they’re surprised,” he said. “I just think fortunately our team in general has played well and our really good players have led the way with that, both at home and on the road.”

None of those players has been better than Keita Bates-Diop , who missed all of the Big Ten schedule last season with a left leg injury that required insertion of a steel rod in his shin. He didn’t play again after Jan. 5 and not much went right for the Buckeyes after that.

Averaging 19.8 points per game, the 6-foot-7 forward has earned Big Ten Player of the Week honors for the past two weeks in a row.

Jae’Sean Tate, last year’s leading scorer, again is a major contributor. Point guard C.J. Jackson is second on the team in scoring, averaging 13.3 points per game. Freshman Kaleb Wesson, 6-foot-9 and 270 pounds, is providing needed bulk inside while averaging 11.2 points per game. His brother Andre, a sophomore, missed all of the summer and the first few weeks of fall practice with an illness but is contributing again.

Center Micah Potter, slowed by ankle injury this season, stepped up with a season-high 13 points on Wednesday as Northwestern applied pressure on Bates-Diop and Tate.

And Andrew Dakich, a graduate transfer who was a bit player for three years at Michigan, has been a bulldog at guard. His career high 11 points against Maryland Jan. 11 included three 3-pointers at the end of the first half that helped propel the Buckeyes to a 91-69 blowout. He is 12 of 18 for the season from 3-point range.

Holtmann, with an emphasis on defense and proper response to adversity, continues to publicly promote the theme that his team can’t possibly keep scoring at this pace and having this kind of success.

Don’t tell his players, though.

“I think it’s been all about approach,” Tate said. “Our approach every day in practice, our approach pregame. We always say we were picked (to be) one of the last teams in the Big Ten. We’re going to continue to play with that chip on our shoulder.”