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Study: Roughly 60 percent of transfers leave Division I basketball

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The discussion of transfers in college basketball seemingly reached a crescendo last week, as the Division I Transfer Working Group updated us on some of their latest discussions and set social media on fire.

They are considering eliminating permission to contact legislation. They are discussing the ramifications of eliminating a sit-out year for first-time transfers. There may be changes coming to the graduate transfer rule.

And through it all, no one can seem to actually get the facts of the issues at hand correct.

(I did, however. Right here on this podcast.)

Are you sick of talking about transfers yet?

Hope not.

Because there’s something else that needs to be mentioned.

Over the weekend, Eli Boettger published the most comprehensive study of transfer movement over on Athletic Director U. If this is something that intrigues you, I highly suggest that you give it a read. There’s a lot in there.

The most interesting nugget is buried about halfway into the study: “Nearly 60% of transfers, instead of joining other D-I teams, have left D-I basketball completely since the 2012 offseason.” The number, exactly, is 58.77%, meaning that of the roughly 800 transfers that have popped up annually in each of the last five or six years, roughly 480 of them — or three out of every five — end up transferring out of Division I basketball.

And that’s to say nothing of the players that transfer down a level, from the ACC to the Atlantic or from the Atlantic 10 to the CAA or the CAA to the MEAC.

“The idea that college basketball players tend to transfer to better teams is almost entirely a myth,” the study reads, and that confirms a thought that I, and many others, have had about the “transfer epidemic” for a long time: the overwhelming majority of players transferring are leaving school to go down a level. For whatever reason, they ended up at a school where they were never going to find a way to get playing time, so they decided to transfer out and find someplace at the lower level where they will be able to see the amount of minutes and shots they desire.

There is one potential flaw I see in the study. When Boettger is evaluating “better teams”, he is doing so based off of winning percentage. But that doesn’t necessarily capture it perfectly. For example, Elijah Long transfer out of Mount St. Mary’s, who went 20-16 last year, and into Texas, coming off of an 11-22 season. That’s a transfer to a better team.

So what the study doesn’t show is how many of the 41.23% of Division 1-to-Division I transfers leave to go to a higher level of basketball, which is the crux of the concern many have for the current and future transfer market. High-majors mining low- and mid-majors for talent they missed on during the initial recruiting process.

I reached out to Boettger about this. Since 2012, there have been 4,360 players that have transferred out of a Division I basketball program. Of those 4,360, only 375 have been “up-transfers”, players leaving a lower league for a team in a more high-profile conference.

Specifically, there have been just 246 players from outside a Power 6 conference (ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC) to transfer into a Power 6 program, and just 129 more players to transfer from one of the bottom 20 conferences into the AAC, Atlantic 10, Mountain West, WCC, Conference USA and Missouri Valley*.

In other words, only 8.6 percent of the players that have transferred since 2012 — the “transfer epidemic era”, if you will — have left their school for a program at a higher level.

The chart, via Boettger, is below. The left side is the where the transfer left, and the top is where the transfer ended up.

*(For simplicity’s sake, these six leagues represent mid-majors in the chart below.)

You can follow Boettger on twitter here.

Report: North Carolina won’t attend White House

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After capturing a national championship earlier this year, the North Carolina men’s basketball team will not be visiting the White House, a North Carolina spokesman said to Andrew Carter of the The Charlotte Observer.

Although the Tar Heels were invited to go to the White House from the staff of President Donald Trump, the team couldn’t figure out a date that worked.

“We couldn’t find a date that worked for both parties,” North Carolina team spokesman Steve Kirschner said to Carter. “We tried about eight or nine dates and between they couldn’t work out that date, we couldn’t work out that date, so – we would have liked to have gone, but not going.”

According to Carter’s report, Kirschner also said that North Carolina players, “were fine with going.”

With Trump’s recent comments towards NFL players and the national anthem and his Saturday morning tweet at Steph Curry and the Golden State Warriors, there has been a lot of controversy surrounding the President with regards to athletes over the past 24 hours.

Although the timing of this may seem like North Carolina is making some sort of political statement, the school is downplaying any sort of politics by focusing on the bad timing.

Xavier freshman forward Jared Ridder will transfer

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Xavier freshman forward Jared Ridder will transfer from the program to move closer to home, according to a release from the school.

The 6-foot-7 Ridder hails from Springfield, Missouri as he was regarded as a top-150 prospect by Rivals in the Class of 2017.

“After much consideration and talking with my family, I have decided that it is in my best interest to move home,” Ridder said in the release.

“Jared has indicated to the coaching staff that he has a desire to be closer to home,” Xavier head coach Chris Mack said. “While we are disappointed, we all want Jared to be happy moving forward. We wish him nothing but the best.”

A potent scorer and noted perimeter shooter at the high school level, Ridder helped MoKan win the Nike Peach Jam during the summer of 2016 playing alongside talented players like Missouri’s Michael and Jontay Porter and Oklahoma’s Trae Young. With a desire to move closer to home, could Ridder potentially land at a spot where one of his talented former teammates is playing?

Ridder averaged 24.2 points, 6.8 rebounds and 1.8 assists during his senior season of high school ball at Kickapoo as he was a first-team, All-State selection in Missouri.

Four-star 2018 forward Ian Steere decommits from Creighton

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Creighton took a big hit to its recruiting efforts late this week as Class of 2018 forward Ian Steere is decommitting from the Bluejays, a source confirmed to NBCSports.com. Steere’s decommitment was first reported by Julius Kim of Elevate Hoops.

The 6-foot-8 Steere is considered a four-star prospect by Rivals as he is coming off of a very solid spring and summer playing with Team Charlotte in the Under Armour Association. A plus athlete who isn’t afraid to bang on the interior, Steere showing an improving skill level throughout the spring and summer as he could see his recruiting soar after opening things up.

According to a report from Jon Nyatawa of the World-Herald, one of the reasons that Steere is opening up his recruitment is his desire to be closer to his native North Carolina. With so many top programs looking for quality help on the interior, it’ll be interesting to see which programs jump in and try to recruit Steere the second time around.

John Wall emotional in Kentucky Hall of Fame induction speech

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John Wall was inducted into the University of Kentucky Athletics Hall of Fame on Friday night as he delivered an emotional speech while talking to his mother.

The first inductee into the Hall of Fame to play for current Wildcat head coach John Calipari, Wall only spent the 2009-10 season in Lexington but he became the first national player of the year to play at Kentucky before becoming the No. 1 pick in the 2010 NBA Draft.

Thanking his mother, Calipari, his family, friends and Big Blue Nation, the Washington Wizards guard gave a very moving speech, including an emotional part directed to his mother at around 4:35.

Ohio State snags third 2018 commitment in a week with four-star guard Luther Muhammad

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Ohio State continued a strong week on the recruiting trail on Friday night by landing a commitment from Class of 2018 guard Luther Muhammad.

Regarded as a four-star prospect, the 6-foot-4 Muhammad is a tough and rugged perimeter defender who can attack the basket. Also showing some ability to play on the ball as a secondary handler, Muhammad is a very solid addition to Ohio State’s recruiting class since they need to overhaul their roster under new head coach Chris Holtmann.

Muhammad is the third player to commit to the Buckeyes in the Class of 2018 this week as he joins four-star forward Jaedon LeDee and three-star guard Duane Washington in the current Ohio State recruiting class. Since Washington is a three-point threat and Muhammad is more of an off-the-bounce specialist, the two guards are a good start for Ohio State in this class as they will likely try to find a true floor leader to play with them on the perimeter.