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Grading the 2017 Coaching Carousel: Who made the best hires?

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With New Mexico making the hire of Paul Weir official last week, we’ve now had every high major opening filled and, barring something dramatic happening later this spring, unless you’re a fan of Presbyterian, Coppin State, Grambling State, Florida A&M and Oral Roberts, the carousel has stopped spinning.

I’ve ranked the hires below. My criteria for these rankings aren’t strictly based on how good the coach is that was hired. That does matter, but the bottom line is that Indiana and, say, Missouri have significant differences in the coaches that they can realistically expect to hire.

Different programs also have different expectations. N.C. State and VCU are both basketball schools, but the Wolfpack are the little brothers on Tobacco Road fighting for relevancy whereas VCU is consistently contending for Atlantic 10 titles, happy to get their shot at winning a few games each March.

Given all of that, let’s take a look at how each of the 14 biggest hires worked out this offseason:

THEY GOT THIS PERFECT

1. Archie Miller, Indiana: When you’re a job as good as Indiana is, you shouldn’t be settling when it comes to hiring a head coach. Indiana did not this time around, replacing Tom Crean with one of the best and brightest young coaches in the sport in Archie Miller. Everyone wanted him in the same way that everyone wanted Shaka Smart and everyone wants Gregg Marshall. Indiana was the program that was able to land him, because Indiana was the job that was good enough to pry him from the grips of Dayton.

Miller is going to have his work cut out for him. Indiana hasn’t been to a Final Four since 2002, and there is some work to do with that team before it will be ready to contend for one again. When it comes to coaching, Miller — the younger brother of Arizona’s Sean Miller, the sons of a legendary high school coach in western Pennsylvania — has the chops to get it done. The key is going to be whether he can actually get the players that can allow him to be a national title contender. I have him tops on this list because I think he will.

2. Mike Rhoades, VCU: It took VCU less than 24 hours once Will Wade left for LSU to make a decision on who they would hire as a replacement, and the decision couldn’t have been any better. Rhoades spent a decade as a successful head coach at Randolph-Macon, a good Division III program in southern Virginia, before working as an assistant on Shaka Smart’s staff. He spent the last three seasons as the head coach at Rice, turning the Owls into a program that was relevant in Conference USA, and many in the industry believe him to be a guy that views VCU as a destination job. He’s intense, he’ll fit the Havoc mantra to a ‘T’ and understands just how important the Rams are to the city of Richmond.

At this point it’s fair to wonder if VCU is a job that makes the coach look better than he is — the last four VCU head coaches have gone on to get high-major jobs, the most successful of which was Jeff Capel, who ran the Oklahoma program into the ground after an Elite 8 appearance — but I think there’s little doubt Rhoades will have a great deal of success there. VCU, along with Dayton, should continue on as a top two program in the Atlantic 10 for the foreseeable future.

Archie Miller (Photo by Frederick Breedon/Getty Images)

GOOD HIRES

3. Brad Underwood, Illinois: I loved the way Illinois got this hire done. No search firms, no leaks and a fairly surprising announcement that popped up on a Saturday morning during the NCAA tournament, stating that the Illini had poached the former Stephen F. Austin coach from Oklahoma State. Underwood has been to four NCAA tournaments in four seasons as a head coach, went 89-13 at SFA and is coming off of an NCAA tournament trip with the Pokes that saw him turn Jawun Evans into a first round pick and Jeffery Carroll into an all-Big 12 player.

My concern at Illinois is going to be how well Underwood recruits Chicago. That’s the key to the Illinois job, and some of that concern was alleviated when Underwood hired ‘Chin’ Coleman, a former coach with the Mac Irvin Fire — Chicago’s powerhouse Nike AAU program — last week.

4. Cuonzo Martin, Missouri: Martin has been a hot name in coaching for what seems like half-a-decade at this point, but he’s been the head coach of three different programs for the last nine seasons and has been to just two NCAA tournaments and one Sweet 16 despite having a team with three NBA players at Tennessee and Jaylen Brown and Ivan Rabb at Cal. There’s reason to question his coaching chops, but when you’re a Missouri program that’s dealing with NCAA issues and coming off three straight 20-loss seasons, you’re not getting Archie Miller or Gregg Marshall.

St. Louis, where Martin is from, is loaded with players. He’ll keep kids from Missouri — a state that’s churned out the likes of Bradley Beal, Otto Porter, O.G. Anunoby, Ben McLemore, David Lee, Alec Burks, Pat McCaw and Tyler Hansbrough in the last decade — in-state, just like he did with Michael Porter Jr. That should be enough to keep Missouri in the mix for NCAA tournament bids and a top four finish in the SEC every year. What else do Tiger fans want?

Cuonzo Martin (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)

5. Will Wade, LSU: Wade, like Miller and Keatts, is a guy that most believe to be an up-and-coming star in the business. After two successful seasons at Chattanooga and two NCAA tournaments with VCU — one of which came after an Atlantic 10 regular season title, which is something Shaka Smart never did — Wade jumped to LSU. It will be a transition for him, as he’ll be recruiting a different region and a different caliber of player, but he’s a bright guy, a very good coach and willing to play an entertaining style. I don’t know if I see him pushing Kentucky for SEC supremacy, but I do think he can make NCAA tournaments in Baton Rouge.

6. Kevin Keatts, N.C. State: Keatts was the guy that N.C. State needed to get once it became clear that Archie Miller wasn’t going to happen. He went to back-to-back NCAA tournaments with UNC Wilmington, he’s a proven recruiter and he’s a disciple of Rick Pitino. I have little doubt that Keatts will make the Wolfpack relevant in the ACC once again, but the question is whether or not relevance will suffice. The ACC is a monster. Duke finished fifth in the league and was a No. 2 seed. Clemson finished 12th and was on the bubble entering the ACC tournament. If Keatts consistently has N.C. State in the 6th-8th range in the league, making NCAA tournaments without pushing Duke or UNC for league titles, will everyone be happy with it?

7. Anthony Grant, Dayton: This wasn’t a sexy hire, but Grant is a Dayton alum that had success at VCU and has spent time in the NBA next to Billy Donovan on Oklahoma City’s bench. The biggest question I have here is going to be what it’s like replacing Archie Miller. Can he match his predecessor’s success? With everything the Flyers lose, it may take some time to get there.

Patrick Ewing (Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images)

ROLLING THE DICE

8. Patrick Ewing, Georgetown: On the one hand, Patrick Ewing was a Hall of Fame NBA player that has spent the last 15 years on an NBA bench. He knows basketball. On the other hand, he’s never had to recruit before, he’s never run a college program before and there may be a reason that he was passed over as an NBA head coach time and again. He might turn out to be Fred Hoiberg. He might also turn out to be Chris Mullin. I think the former is more likely than the latter, but there’s nothing we can do but wait and see.

9. Mike Hopkins, Washington: It’s hard to know what to expect from ‘Hop’ after he spent the last two decades on staff at Syracuse, where he was the coach-in-waiting that got tired of waiting. I’ve always thought of the Huskies as a bit of a sleeping giant, one that Lorenzo Romar was able to awake for a five-year stretch last decade. If he can tap into the talent-rich Seattle recruiting grounds, he should be able to win games, but it’s hard to know for sure; all we’ve seen from him as a head coach was a 4-5 run as Syracuse’s interim last season, a year when the Orange made the Final Four.

10. Brian Dutcher, San Diego State: Steve Fisher retired earlier this month and was replaced by Dutcher, he longtime right-hand man and coaching-in-waiting. It will be fascinating to see what happens with the Aztecs now. Fisher built that into a Mountain West powerhouse from nothing, but SDSU fell on hard times in recent years. Dutcher knows everything that he needs to know about SDSU and how Fisher did what he did, but … how often does handing a program off to an assistant coach actually work? It’s probably less often than you think.

DID THE SCHOOLS GET THIS RIGHT?

11. Matt McCall, UMass: UMass looked like they had made a great hire with Winthrop’s Pat Kelsey, and then 15 minutes before a scheduled press conference to introduce him as the new head coach of the Minutemen, the hire was walked back. To be fair, UMass did end up getting a good one in McCall, who had a good two-year run at Chattanooga following in Will Wade’s footsteps, but it’s hard to be too celebratory about a hire when it’s clearly, at-best, the program’s No. 2 choice.

12. Paul Weir, New Mexico: The Lobos initially gave head coach Craig Neal a vote of confidence before eventually making the decision to change leadership. After a search that included names like Tim Miles and Spurs assistant James Barrego — twice — UNM eventually landed on Weir, who was the head coach at arch-rival New Mexico State.

COACHES IN A TOUGH SPOT

13. Wyking Jones, Cal, and Mike Boynton Jr., Oklahoma State: Both Cal and Oklahoma State opted to promote assistants already on staff instead of going out and finding a coach as a replacement, and both were put in difficult-to-impossible positions. Cal is losing essentially everyone — including star freshman point guard Charlie Moore — from a team that was already in need of a rebuild. Oklahoma State lost Phil Forte to graduation and Jawun Evans to the draft. Boynton, to his credit, at least returns Jeffery Carroll and has already landed Miami (OH) transfer Michael Weathers.

The more interesting story here, however, is that both Jones and Boynton are young, African-American assistant coaches that interviewed their way into head coaching jobs in Power 5 leagues. On the surface, this looks like a great thing for a profession that is skewed white, but, as one industry source put it, this “set young black coaches back another 10 years.” Oklahoma State, in a best-case scenario, is a middle-of-the-pack Big 12 program, and the current state of the program is not a best-case scenario. Cal is at least two years away from competing for an NCAA tournament berth. Put another way, it’s unlikely that anyone would have immediate success at either program, let alone two career assistants getting their first shot at a head coaching gig, and any struggles Jones and Boynton do have only makes it more difficult for the next young, black coach to get that next high-major head coaching opening.

And then there is the money aspect of this. Both Boynton and Jones got their jobs in part because neither university wanted to spend what was required to get a big name. Did they get the job because they came at a discount and were willing to take a shot at winning in a place where, financially, they aren’t set up to win?

“I’m 100 percent rooting for those guys to kill it,” the source said, “but this is the sad reality.”

Notre Dame gets commitment from four-star guard

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Mike Brey’s 2018 recruiting class just got stronger Thursday.

Notre Dame added its second four-star prospect, Robby Carmody, a 6-foot-4 guard from Pennsylvania.

“The recruiting process has been a humbling and exciting experience!” Carmody wrote on social media. “My sincerest appreciation goes out to all the coaches and schools that invested time getting to know me throughout the process.

“Today I am blessed and excited to announce that I am committing to the University of Notre Dame!”

Carmody, who just recently visited the Fighting Irish and Purdue,  joins Prentiss Hubb as the first two pieces of Brey’s 2018 class. Hubb is a 6-foot-2 guard from Washington, DC and a top-75 ranked player nationally.

The Irish will need some major pieces in 2018 after losing the likes of Bonzie Colson and Matt Farrell to graduation after this upcoming season. Notre Dame has won at least one NCAA tournament game in each of the last three seasons, making two Elite Eights during that time.

2018 NBA Mock Draft: It’s never too early …

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With the 2017 NBA Draft coming to a close, it’s time to take a look at the 2018 NBA Draft and some of the best, most influential potential pros in the sport next season. 

Here is a first round mock draft for 2018. In a year, we can look back on this and realize just how naive we all were.

Scott Phillips contributed to this story.

1. Michael Porter Jr., Missouri, Fr.: The 6-foot-9 former Washington signee is a lethal scorer that plays on the perimeter and has a chance to be a National Player of the Year and No. 1 overall pick. He’s got the size and athleticism to overwhelm smaller defenders and the quicks to light up college fours, Porter is also a strong rebounder who is tougher than some give him credit for.

The big question for Porter next season isn’t about him, it will be how good that Tigers team is around him. New head coach Cuonzo Martin inherited a mediocre-at-best roster, but he’s added some talented — but very young — pieces. If Porter Jr.’s younger brother, Jontay, also reclassifies to this year, Missouri might even be a sleeper NCAA tournament team.

     RELATED: It’s All In The Family for the Porters

But even if Porter and Missouri misses the Big Dance, as expected, it shouldn’t have any kind of major bearing on his draft stock as long as he is productive. Both Ben Simmons and Markelle Fultz went No. 1 in the draft after missing the NCAA tournament.

Michael Porter, Jr. (Photo by Jon Lopez)
2. Deandre Ayton, Arizona, Fr.: Not many 7-footers move as well as Ayton, and it was part of the reason he was once considered the No. 1 prospect in this class. As a sophomore in high school, Ayton once gave future Final Four team North Carolina a double-double in an exhibition game in his native Bahamas.

With an ability to run the floor like a guard while being quick enough to switch onto some perimeter players, Ayton is a rare athlete at center who also has some intriguing offensive capabilities: He has a good touch from the free-throw line and mid-range and some fluidity on the perimeter.

But the big question is his motor. There are times when Ayton disappears for stretches of games, and then there are the stretches where he absolutely dominates everyone. It’ll be fascinating to see which Ayton we see every game at Arizona. If he’s engaged all year he has a chance to be a No. 1 pick.

3. Miles Bridges, Michigan State, So.: Bridges will test whether or not returning to school when you are a projected lottery pick is the dumbest thing that an athlete can do. Anyone that watched Michigan State play last season knows how good this guy is. He’s a 6-foot-7 combo-forward that jumps through the roof and can be a multi-positional defender. In a league that prioritizes positionless basketball and values the ability to defend the rim and space the floor, Bridges shot 39 percent from three and averaged 1.5 blocks.

The big question for him next season is going to be his transition to being a full-time perimeter player. Bridges spent much of his freshman campaign playing a small-ball four role for the Spartans. But with Jaren Jackson and Nick Ward on the floor at the same time, he’s going to be a small forward through and through. Is he skilled enough for that role, or will he be “exposed”?

4. Luka Doncic, Real Madrid: The random Euro dude you’ve never heard of. He’s 6-foot-8. He’s a shooting guard that knocked down 37 percent of his threes. He’s from Slovenia. His dad’s named Sasa. When my son was born I used my one name veto on ‘Luka’. Draft Express thinks he’s going No. 1 overall. I’ll slot him in at No. 4 because his neckbeard hasn’t fully grown in yet.

5. Robert Williams, Texas A&M, So.: Here’s to hoping that Williams made the right decision. A 6-foot-9 center with a 7-foot-4 wingspan and freakish athleticism that averaged 11.9 points, 8.2 boards and 2.6 blocks as a freshman, Williams made the decision to return to College Station for his sophomore season when he had the chance to be a first round pick — potentially a lottery pick — in the 2017 NBA Draft. That’s a serious risk, one that Cal center Ivan Rabb learned was not the best decision when he went from being a projected lottery pick to the No. 35 pick by returning for his sophomore campaign. The Aggies should be really good next season, and that will help, as will the fact that there is actually a point guard on the roster. But striking while the iron is hot is the key for potential lottery picks when it comes to cashing in on those guaranteed contracts.

6. Mohamed Bamba, Texas, Fr.: Gifted with an incredible 7-foot-9 wingspan, the 7-foot-1 Bamba has the chance to be one of the best defensive players in the nation this season. Not only can Bamba wall up at the rim and defend with his ridiculous standing reach, but he’s also quick enough to switch and defend wings on the perimeter and stick with them. Rebounding also comes naturally to Bamba because his length enables him to snare rebounds well above rim level.

Offense is going to be the major question mark with Bamba. While Bamba has been able to finish over smaller defenders near the basket, he’s a very skinny 210 pounds and he doesn’t possess a lot of polish. Even if Bamba’s offensive game doesn’t show a lot this season, he has the kind of rare athleticism and tools that could make him a top three pick.

7. Jaren Jackson Jr., Michigan State, Fr.: Late-blooming big man Jaren Jackson Jr. has a chance to be a rare Big Ten one-and-done player. The 6-foot-10 Jackson just helped La Lumiere to a national championship at the high school level last season as he’ll be a major piece for the Spartans this season.

Not only can Jackson produce at a potential double-double level but he’s also a gifted three-point shooter who is effective in the pick-and-pop game. Young for his class, Jackson’s body and skill level are still developing, but he showed signs of being a dominant sidekick for Miles Bridges.

Wendell Carter, Jon Lopez/Nike
8. Wendell Carter, Duke, Fr.: The 6-foot-10 Carter should be much more of an impact than Harry Giles III or Marques Bolden this season as he’s a developed scorer who can play with his back to the basket or facing up. With a surprising amount of touch and perimeter skill for a 260-pound big man, Carter is the type of force who could attract double teams while opening things up for guys like Grayson Allen.

And Carter is no slouch athletically, either. Although he’s not a freak like Ayton or Bamba, Carter is a very good athlete who can rebound in traffic and protect the rim as well. It would come as no surprise if Carter was actually the most effective big man of this list at the college level this season as he should have a very balanced roster around him.

9. Bruce Brown, Miami, So.: I’m all-in on Miami as a national title contender this season, and one of the biggest reasons why is Bruce Brown. He’s a 6-foot-5 combo-guard with long arms and a physical frame, he shoots it well from three and can operate in pick-and-rolls and has a competitive fire about him that cannot be taught. I think there’s a chance that he ends up being the ACC Player of the Year this year, and if Jim Larrañaga can work his point guard magic with him, he’ll be a top ten pick in June.

10. Troy Brown, Oregon, Fr.: Brown is something of a swiss army knife in the sense that he can do a little bit of everything. He scores, he passes, he hits the glass and he does all this as a 6-foot-6 wing with a 6-foot-11 wingspan. He’ll also be playing for a team that will showcase his versatility in Oregon. On paper, he looks like a guy that should fit the positionless mold of the modern NBA quite well. Having said that, he’s not a great athlete and he’s not a great shooter, which takes some of the luster off of the idea that he can guard multipositions and spread the floor.

11. Chimezie Metu, USC, Jr.: Metu is an interesting, still-developing prospect. He’s got the physical tools to project as an NBA front court player as well as an improving offensive repertoire. The key for him is going to be seeing where he takes a step forward this offseason. He has a decent base of perimeter skills — he makes midrange jumpers and shoots 75 percent from the foul line — but ultimately he needs to extend that range and showcase more toughness in the paint, on the glass and protecting the rim.

Collin Sexton, Jon Lopez/Nike
12. Collin Sexton, Alabama, Fr.: One of the best scorers at 6-foot-1 in recent memory, Sexton led the EYBL, Nike’s AAU circuit, in scoring last spring by a full eight points, nearly 30 points per game. Sexton is undersized and incredibly intense bordering on insane, which means that he’ll a fun player to watch and one that could become very popular with fans this season. The MVP of USA Basketball’s gold-medal winning U17 World Championship team last summer, Sexton has a big-game mentality as he’s one of the most competitive players in the class.

     RELATED: How Collin Sexton made himself a five-star

Perimeter shooting was is the shaky part of Sexton’s scoring game. He has improved it steadily over time, but that’s something he’s going to need to develop if he’s going to be a lottery pick as many project him to be.

13. Lonnie Walker, Miami, Fr.: Another one of the reasons I think that Miami is going to be awesome this season. Walker is a big, long and strong shooting guard than can play with the ball in his hands. He made 40 percent of his threes on the Nike EYBL circuit and he has the tools to be a big time defensive menace. He’s one of my favorite guards in the Class of 2017.

14. Trevon Duval, Duke, Fr.: A freakish athlete at point guard who can play well above the rim, the 6-foot-2 Duval will help stabilize the point guard position for Duke this season. Working in a reliable jump shot is going to be the big thing to watch for Duval this season. The way the point guard spot is trending, he’ll need to knock down catch-and-shoot jumpers — something that hasn’t always been reliable. There are also times that Duval can play too fast as he can be reckless with turnovers and taking tough shots. But if Duval corrects those workable mistakes, then he has a chance to get Duke to another Final Four because they have plenty of offensive weapons.

  • 15. De’Anthony Melton, USC, So.
  • 16. Hamidou Diallo, Kentucky, Fr.
  • 17. Mitchell Robinson, Western Kentucky, Fr.
  • 18. Justin Jackson, Maryland, So.
  • 19. Grayson Allen, Duke, Sr.
  • 20. Devonte’ Graham, Kansas, Sr.
  • 21. Kevin Knox, Kentucky, Fr.
  • 22. Shake Milton, SMU, Jr.
  • 23. V.J. King, Louisville, So.
  • 24. Killian Tillie, Gonzaga, So.
  • 25. Quenton Rose, Temple, So.
  • 26. Vince Edwards, Purdue, Sr.
  • 27. Allonzo Trier, Arizona, Jr.
  • 28. Ethan Happ, Wisconsin, Jr.
  • 29. Marques Bolden, Duke, So.
  • 30. Aaron Holiday, UCLA, Jr.

Report: Oregon’s Bigby-Williams played last season while under investigation for alleged sexual assault

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An Oregon junior played all of the 2017-18 season while under investigation for alleged sexual assault, according to a report from The Daily Emerald.

Kavell Bigby-Williams was accused of sexually assaulting a female in mid-September and has been under investigation since Sept. 19, according to the report. The report states that Oregon coach Dana Altman “athletic director Rob Mullens, and other athletic department staffers were aware UOPD requested Bigby-Williams’ contact information, but nobody asked why UOPD wanted to speak to him or the nature of the case,” citing an athletic department spokesperson.

Bigby-Williams announced via social media Tuesday that he would transfer to LSU.

The news of the investigation is particularly noteworthy because Altman and Oregon came under intense scrutiny in 2014 when it became known that three players – Dominic Artis, Damyean Dotson and Brandon Austin – played in the NCAA tournament while under investigation for sexual assault. Charges against the three were ultimately dismissed.

NBC Sports’ Rob Dauster revisited the incident this past March in a column while the Ducks made their first Final Four in over 70 years, pronouncing that Altman should have lost his job over it.

The 6-foot-11, 230-pound Bigby-Williams played in all but two of Oregon’s games last season, including each of their NCAA tournament games, averaging 3 points and 2.8 rebounds in 9.8 minutes per game.

Update:

Oregon released the following statement Thursday:

Recent media coverage of an allegation of sexual assault by a former member of the UO’s basketball program has created some questions about the university’s response. The University of Oregon takes very seriously any allegation of sexual assault or misconduct regardless of whether it involves a student athlete.

In most cases involving an accusation of sexual assault, it is impossible and inappropriate to publicly disclose details to protect the rights of victims and those who report violations under Title IX, to comply with federal student privacy laws, and to provide those accused with appropriate due process.

This was a scenario that stemmed from a law enforcement inquiry by the Northern Wyoming Community College police. UO police have no jurisdiction in Wyoming, and it would be inappropriate for the UO to provide details on an inquiry led by another law enforcement agency.

The UO Police Department was contacted in the fall of 2016 to assist the NWCCD police in an interview with Kavell Bigby-Williams. UO athletics assisted UOPD in contacting Bigby-Williams, who declined to be interviewed through his attorney. That information was provided to the NWCCD Police Department.

Information detailing allegations was not shared with the coaching staff to protect integrity of the inquiry. The Department of Intercollegiate Athletics’ only role was to provide contact information for the player and to coordinate with the university’s Title IX coordinator.

University processes, then as now, involve communication between campus police, the Title IX office and athletics administration to determine whether there is a risk to the campus community that requires immediate action. In September 2016, there was insufficient information to warrant interim action. Since September, UOPD has received no further information or requests for assistance from the NWCCD police suggesting the inquiry had advanced in any way.

“I don’t believe Rick Pitino knew,” Boeheim says of Louisville scandal

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There’s not a lot of certainty in this world, but one of the closest things to it is college basketball coaches publicly coming to the defense of their embroiled colleagues. On Wednesday, it was Syracuse’s Jim Boeheim coming to the defense of Louisville coach Rick Pitino, whose program may be forced to vacate 108 wins and a national title due to its escort scandal.

Pitino’s refrain – one the NCAA has explicitly barred as an excuse – is that he knew nothing of the illicit activities that have gotten the Cardinals in trouble. Boeheim believes him.

“Obviously, when somebody does something like that there is going to be repercussions,” Boeheim told 104.5 FM in Albany, “and I don’t believe Rick Pitino knew about it but it still happened .. I didn’t know about somebody putting quotations in a paper at Syracuse but it happened.

“So, you know we’re going to take the hits for it. We took our hits, you know Louisville is taking their hits. I don’t like it, and there’s not much you can do about it.”

Of course, whether or not Pitino knew about it doesn’t really matter from the NCAA’s perspective. Plausible deniability is not a defense.

Pitino, who plans to appeal the decision, was suspended for the first five games of the ACC season this year. It’s Louisville’s potentially vacated title, though, that would seem to be the biggest punishment, one Boeheim, who got with with NCAA penalties in 2014, disagrees with.

“You know nobody knew they were gonna be made ineligible,” he said, “and then they’re made ineligible what? 10 years later? Or  how many years later has it been, probably not 10 but 7. Then, you know, you take away games and I think that’s difficult. I think you have to punish schools but when you start taking games away I think it’s something I don’t have the solution for but I don’t like that particular part of the punishment.”

2017 NBA Draft Preview: Which potential lottery picks will be busts?

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Over the course of the last three weeks, we’ve been churning out NBA Draft Prospect Profiles of the best players in this loaded draft for the fellas at Pro Basketball Talk.

You can find them here:

You can also find the latest NBC Sports Mock Draft here.

Today, we’ll be going through some of the projected lottery picks to determine who from that group will be a bust in the NBA.

RELATED: Lottery Busts | First Round Values | Draft Sleepers

Jonathan Isaac, Florida State: To me, Jonathan Isaac may actually be the most interesting prospect in this draft simply because no one really knows quite what to expect from him.

What I mean is that every other player projected to go in the top ten is more or less a known quantity at this point. The projected top five picks all have all-star potential, either at the point (Fultz, Ball, Fox) or as a big wing with small-ball four potential (Jackson Tatum). Malik Monk is an undersized two with explosive scoring ability. Dennis Smith Jr.’s talent is outweighed only by the red flags that come along with him. Lauri Markkanen is a seven-footer that shoots it like Klay Thompson. Zach Collins, Donovan Mitchell, Luke Kennard. We basically know what their role is going to be at the next level.

What will Isaac be?

Well, that depends on who you ask.

(Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images)

Let’s start with Isaac’s potential. He stands 6-foot-11 with a 7-foot-1 wingspan and the skills to play on the perimeter. He shot 34.8 percent from three, and his 78 percent free throw shooting makes it conceivable that is his floor as a shooter in the long-term, while blocking more than two shots per 40 minutes. There isn’t a pair of skills more valuable in the NBA these days than the ability to protect the rim and stretch the floor. That’s what makes Golden State’s lineup that features Kevin Durant and Draymond Green so difficult to deal with. Throw in Isaac’s ability to move his feet and play as a switchable, multi-positional defender, and what you have is a player with a floor that’s higher than your typical 6-foot-11, 205 pound project. What’s the worst case scenario, that he’s Andre Roberson but a couple of inches taller with the ability to make a three?

So why is he headlining this bust list?

Because of where he’s being projected in the draft.

It seems pretty clear at this point who the top five picks in this year’s draft are going to be — Fultz, Ball, Tatum, Jackson and Fox. Isaac appears to be a lock to go somewhere in the top ten with quite a few people projecting him to wind up as the No. 6 pick. NBA teams aren’t exactly expecting the No. 6 pick to turn into a franchise player, but anything less than a future starter with a shot to make a couple of all-star teams would be a disappointment with that pick, particularly in a year where the draft is as good as it is in 2017.

In theory, that’s what Isaac is, right? High floor with an incredibly high ceiling if it all comes together? I’m just not convinced there’s all that much of a chance that it “all comes together” for him. Perhaps the biggest concern with Isaac when it comes to his longterm development is whether or not he realizes just how good he has the potential to be. Part of the reason he wound up at Florida State is that he didn’t want to be in the spotlight that comes with playing at a school like Kentucky or Kansas. Part of the reason he played second-fiddle offensively to the likes of Dwayne Bacon and Xavier Rathan-Mayes is that he didn’t realize he could take over games at the college level.

You don’t have to do much projecting or guessing to see Isaac playing a role and doing it effectively in the NBA, but it would be disappointing if, with the sixth pick in this draft, Orlando ended up drafting a 6-foot-11 3-and-D forward that blocks shots, makes threes and plays on the perimeter on both ends of the floor that only turned into a role player.

(Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images)

Dennis Smith Jr., N.C. State: If the NBA were to draft strictly based on talent, I think that Dennis Smith Jr. would have a chance to be a top three pick in this year’s draft. He’s that good. He may be the best athlete in this draft in the back court despite battling through a torn ACL he suffered two summers ago. He can operate in pick-and-rolls. He has three-point range. He has NBA point guard size. He has the total package.

But he also played on an N.C. State team that had absolutely no business being as bad as they were last year. The Wolfpack went 15-17 overall and just 4-14 in the ACC despite having a roster that was talented enough to get them to the Sweet 16. (Yeah, I said it. And I meant it.) They were disappointing enough that head coach Mark Gottfried got fired with two weeks left in the regular season, something that just does not happen in college basketball. After N.C. State lost by 30 points to a mediocre Wake Forest team, a Wake Forest player told the media that, “We knew if we got up early on them, they was going to quit.”

Does that sound like the kind of player that you want to be the face of your franchise at the point?

Point guards are supposed to be leaders, an extension of the coach on the floor, or so goes the cliché. That becomes even more true at the college level, particularly when you’re dealing with a point guard that is so much more talented than the players around him.

Smith is good enough to put up 32 points and six assists in Cameron Indoor Stadium in a win over Duke, one of the best individual performances we saw all season long, but that still wasn’t enough to make the Wolfpack anything close to relevant at any point during the season.

Smith is going to be a lottery pick, meaning he is going to be drafted by a franchise that is going to be bad and relying on him to make them good again. That franchise might be the Knicks or the Kings. They’re going to be asking him to do what N.C. State asked him to do, and we all saw how that worked out.

What makes you believe it’s going to be different when he’s cashing those NBA paychecks?

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Malik Monk, Kentucky: The concerns about Malik Monk are really quite simple: There is a reason that 6-foot-3, 180 pound shooting guards aren’t all that common in the NBA. Regardless of what he’s able to do as a shooter or just how athletic he is, the simple fact of the matter is that Monk is too small for his ideal position at the next level.

But you wouldn’t know that based on where some believe he is going to end up being picked or the hype that he had throughout his freshman season with the Wildcats. Monk is too good of a scorer not to find a way to carve out a role in the league, whether it’s as J.R. Smith as a floor-spacer, an instant-offense player off the bench a la Lou Williams or a small scoring guard on a team with a point forward like Kyrie Irving. His ability to shoot is elite, and in a league that prioritizes shooting the way the NBA prioritizes shooting, that has value.

That that value can only be capitalized on if Monk winds up in a situation that allows him to play the way he needs to play.

Justin Patton, Creighton: There are some things about Justin Patton that I really like. He’s a good athlete, he runs the floor hard, he finds himself in a good spot to catch lobs, he knows how to work as the roll-man in ball-screen actions, he’s shown off some potential as a stretch-five with flashes of perimeter skill.

What concerns me about Patton is how much his effectiveness fell off once Maurice Watson Jr., Creighton’s point guard that was having an all-american season, went down with a torn ACL. When Patton was not on the floor with an elite playmaker, he struggled to impact the game. He averaged just 9.6 boards per 40 minutes — not a good number for a 7-footer in the Big East — and while he blocked a few shots, he was often late on rotations, if he recognized them at all. I think he lacks some toughness and physicality, and he certainly needs to improve his awareness, attention to detail defensively and some of those pesky fundamentals.

Put another way, Patton’s total package includes some intriguing skills, but I’m not sure those skills fit the role he’ll need to play to last at the next level.

Jarrett Allen, Texas: Allen may have the best physical tools in this year’s draft. He’s 6-foot-11 with a 7-foot-6 wingspan, hands that look like baseball mits and enough athleticism to do things like this:

There’s no reason that he can’t find a way to be Tristan Thompson … unless he just doesn’t love playing basketball. That is a concern that NBA decision-makers have regarding Allen, which is part of the reason that a player with all of the attributes that I listed earlier may end up getting picked in the late teens or early 20s.