2017 NCAA Tournament Bracket Breakdown: Who is on Upset Watch?

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Today, we are going to take a look at seven teams that are on Upset Watch.

In order to be eligible for this prestigious list, you have to be a No. 5 seed or higher in danger of losing to a No. 8 seed or lower in the first weekend of the tournament.

So without further ado, here are the teams that you should be wary of taking deep in the tournament, because they may not be around all that long:

No. 2 seed Kentucky: No one in the NCAA tournament got a worse draw than Kentucky did this year.

No one.

Rated as the best No. 2 seed, Kentucky was slotted in the South Region, the same region that features North Carolina at the top. And if that wasn’t tough enough, the Wildcats are, in all likelihood, going to have to beat UCLA in the Sweet 16 to get to UNC. And if that isn’t difficult enough, Kentucky drew Wichita State in the second round, should the Shockers get past a Dayton team they’ve favored over by seven points.

Wichita State is the No. 8 team on KenPom. They are tough and well-coached and older than you think. They are beating the hell out of everyone these days, and it is the worst miss-seed we’ve ever seen in the NCAA tournament seeding that the Shockers are a No. 10 seed.

Kentucky has a serious gripe here.

But they can’t change it now. They can only hope they get through.

No. 2 seed Louisville: The Cardinals have had issues scoring this season, particularly on the nights where Donovan Mitchell isn’t hitting shots. If there is one this that both Michigan and Oklahoma State are capable of doing, it’s putting up points and putting them up in a hurry. Oklahoma State has one of the nation’s best point guards in Jawun Evans, while Derrick Walton and Michigan have been on a terrific run since Mid-January, which included a run to the Big Ten tournament title after a plane crash en route to DC.

No. 3 seed Florida State: The Seminoles are the most talented team in the country that I just don’t trust. I don’t want to call them selfish, but I don’t know if they realize that Jonathan Isaac is the team’s best player. I don’t think he realizes it all the time, and that’s a bad combination. FSU gets FGCU in the first round of the tournament in Orlando, and I think that FGCU will win that game.

RELATED: Power Rankings 1-68 | Duke deserved a No. 1 seed | Committee got bubble right

REGIONAL BREAKDOWNS: East | Midwest | South | West

No. 3 seed Baylor: OK, so this technically doesn’t fit the criteria I listed above, but I do think that the Bears get picked of before the Sweet 16. I think they’ve been figured out, and it would not surprise me in the least if SMU rolls over them to get to the Sweet 16. The Bears don’t have great shooting and they don’t have great guard play, and those are the two things that you look for in teams that make runs in the tourney.

No. 5 seed Iowa State: The Cyclones are caught up in the most exciting game in the first round of the tournament, as they square off with No. 12 Nevada. The Wolf Pack have quite a bit of talent on their roster. Cameron Oliver can make the NBA. Jordan Caroline went for 45 points in a game this season. Marcus Marshall is a monster. As good as Iowa State is, they are going to have their work cut out for them getting past Nevada.

No. 5 seed Virginia: It’s tough for me to put Virginia on this list because I think they are the worst possible matchup for No. 12 seed UNC Wilmington. The Seahawks want nothing more than to make a basketball game ugly, choppy, chaotic and fast-paced. They want to force turnovers and run their opponent ragged. Virginia? They are the best in the country at controlling tempo. They don’t make mistakes. My first thought was to flat out write off UNCW.

Except Virginia can’t score. They don’t have to normally, because their defense is good enough to hold just about anyone in check, but their issues this season lower their margin for error, just like the fewer possessions they play lowers their margin for error. I think Kevin Keatts gives the ‘Hoos a fight.

No. 5 seed Minnesota: The Golden Gophers get Middle Tennessee State in the first round. The Blue Raiders may actually be better this season than they were a year ago, and last year they pulled off the greatest upset in the history of the first round of the NCAA tournament in beating No. 2 seed Michigan State. They won at Ole Miss after leading by 29 points at the half. They beat Vandy by 23. They won at Belmont. They’re legit, and Minnesota better come to play if the are going to advance.

Gonzaga passes the title of best program without a Final Four to Xavier in win

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In 1999, Gonzaga was not yet “Gonzaga”.

A No. 10 seed in just their third NCAA tournament, the Zags won three games against high-major competition, coming within a possession of reaching the Final Four in a loss to No. 1 seed UConn.

UConn, at that point, was one of the best programs in the country under Jim Calhoun, but the knock on the Huskies at that point was that they couldn’t win the big one. They had been to three Elite 8s and three more Sweet 16s in the previous eight seasons, but it wasn’t until they knocked off that Gonzaga team that they finally were playing on college basketball’s biggest stage.

For 18 years, Gonzaga tried and failed to get to a Final Four, becoming one of the nation’s premier basketball programs without having the postseason success to legitimize themselves in the eyes of idiots around the country. That ended on Saturday night in San Jose, as No. 1 seed Gonzaga ended No. 11 Xavier’s thrilling run to the Elite 8 and passing on the torch that UConn passed to them.

Xavier can now claim the title of the best basketball program that has yet to make a Final Four, which is both a compliment and a curse.

The Musketeers have been to the NCAA tournament 25 times since the bracket expanded to 64 teams in 1985. They’ve been to nine Sweet 16s and three Elite 8s. They had a winning record in NCAA tournament play until Saturday’s loss and now lay claim to the title of the team with the most NCAA tournament wins without an appearance in the Final Four.

Xavier is going to get there eventually. Chris Mack is one of the best coaches in the business. Hell, if Trevon Bluiett and Edmond Sumner both return to school, it could very well be next season that they snap that streak. It’s coming at some point.

I don’t even think it’s an insult to say this about Xavier. I don’t think it’s a shot at the program or the coaches that have come through it. Getting to the Final Four is hard. Bill Self is a lead-pipe lock to be a Hall of Famer, and he’s been to just two Final Fours in his career. He’s 2-7 in the Elite 8, and if Derrick Rose could make his free throws, the discussion of just how good of a coach Self is if he can’t win a title would be raging with the Jayhawks flaming out of the tournament on Saturday night.

But as with Gonzaga and UConn before them, Xavier is going to have that monkey on their back every time they suit up in March.

VIDEO: Tyler Dorsey hits dagger after dagger in upset of Kansas

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Tyler Dorsey is building himself quite the reputation for being a big-shot maker.

He hit the game-winner that got Oregon to the Sweet 16. He hit two threes at the end of the first half to push Oregon’s lead to 11 points over Kansas. And he hit this three, the dagger through the heart of Kansas:

Dorsey finished with 27 points. He’s scored at least 20 points in every game since the NCAA tournament began.

No. 3 Oregon heading to first Final Four in 78 years

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Oregon, the No. 3 seed in the Midwest region, made what looked to be a smooth path to Phoenix into a bumpy road. But after 78 years, the Ducks are going back to the Final Four, defeating No. 1 Kansas, 74-60, in Elite Eight on Friday night in Kansas City.

Everything went right for the Ducks in the first half. Josh Jackson was called for two fouls in the less than three minutes. The Jayhawks were limited in transition. Tyler Dorsey’s two 3-pointers in the final 40 seconds gave them a double-digit lead at halftime. Oregon stretched it to as many as 18 in the second. Kansas couldn’t buy a basket from three (a far cry from the 3-point barrage it put on Purdue two nights earlier). When the Jayhawks drove to the basket, it was Jordan Bell (11 points, 13 rebounds and eight blocks) who either blocked or altered their shots.

However, the Ducks not only left the door open for the Jayhawks, they held it open. Kansas’ comeback attempt was a mix drink that was equal parts KU putting the clamps on defensively, Oregon playing a bit of hero ball, and the Ducks playing not to lose instead of to win. Up six with less than two minutes remaining, and Dorsey (27 points) buried a dagger 3-pointer that all but sealed the win — and a spot in next week’s Final Four — for the Ducks.

Oregon will play the winner of the South region, which will either be No. 1 North Carolina or No. 2 Kentucky on Saturday.

 

VIDEO: Jordan Bell’s spectacular chase-down block

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Oregon big man Jordan Bell has been the best player on the floor for the Ducks against Kansas, totally changing the way that Kansas wants to play with his defense.

As of the time of this posting, he had nine points, 11 boards, seven blocks and three assists, but his impact is not solely limited to the shots he swatted — every Kansas player that gets into the lane is very aware of the fact that Bell is lurking around the rim.

The thought of him changes shots.

The best block he’s had today came midway through the second half, when he snuffed out a dunk attempt from Landen Lucas with an impressive chase-down block:

No. 1 Gonzaga reaches first Final Four with win over No. 11 Xavier

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It took 18 long years, but after Gonzaga exploded onto the national scene with a Cinderella run that came one possession short of the Final Four in 1999, after the program followed up that run with back-to-back trips to the Sweet 16 as a double-digit seed, after 19 straight trips to the NCAA tournament marred by moments of unfathomable heartbreak, the nation’s preeminent mid-major success story is finally headed to the Final Four.

What will the ‘Gonzaga is overrated’ crowd say now?

Armed with a roster that included a pair of blue-chip guards in their back court, a trio of high-major transfers and a McDonald’s All-American and future first round pick coming off the bench, Mark Few knocked off No. 11 seed Xavier, 83-59, on Saturday night to win the West Region and punch his first ticket to the final weekend of the college basketball season. Nigel Williams-Goss led the way with 23 points, eight boards and four assists and Johnathan Williams III, who was named the region’s Most Outstanding Player, added 19 points and nine boards as Gonzaga buried 12 threes and jumped out to an early lead they would never relinquish in a game that never felt like it was in doubt.

And with that, the monkey on Mark Few’s back is now gone.

“It means everything that we could deliver for guys like this,” Mark Few said after the game. Few had been the winningest NCAA tournament coach without a Final Four on his résumé. “They believed in us when they came. This is what we wanted to do and set out to do, and these guys were unbelievable. I could not be happier for all these guys, all our former players and all of Zag Nation.”

Whether or not that monkey was deserved is a fair question to ask. Gonzaga has had an incredible amount of success in the NCAA tournament. They’ve won at least one game in 16 of the 19 NCAA tournaments, including this year, that they’ve been a part of, including five of the six years in which they were a double-digit seed. In 13 of the previous 18 NCAA tournaments they played in, they advanced as far or further than their seed suggested they should have. Only five times did they lose to a team that was seeded lower than them. They’ve won 17 WCC regular season titles and 15 WCC tournament titles during that span.

What they’ve done, the consistency of the success that they’ve had, is not something done easily.

And it’s not something that should be overlooked when you consider where this program was in the early 90s. When Few was hired as an assistant coach in 1990, Gonzaga was thought of as the worst job in the WCC. The program, located in Spokane, Washington, which isn’t exactly a hotbed for recruiting, had never been to an NCAA tournament. The school didn’t even have a weight room for the team.

(Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)

“Players would sign out sweats and jerseys at the beginning of every school year and turn them back in nine months later,” wrote Yahoo’s Jeff Eisenberg earlier this week. “Sneakers were the only gear players received new, but obtaining a fresh pair typically required proving the old ones had a hole in the bottom.”

Within five years, Gonzaga was in the NCAA tournament. Within nine years, they had won the league and reached the Elite 8. Within 15 years, the school opened up a sparkling, $25-million, 6,000-seat arena, chartering flights for road games and recruiting trips.

Today, Gonzaga is arguably a top ten program in the sport

It is, quite literally, college basketball’s best rags-to-riches story.

They shouldn’t need this to justify their standing in the sport. Few shouldn’t need this to legitimize himself as something more than a coach feasting on a conference that can’t compete.

“My legacy is I guess built on a lot of other things,” Few said on Friday. “It’s built on the respect my players have for me and how they feel about they were treated and coached and developed and all that.”

“I’m schlepping along right now like vastly far behind my father who is 54 years a Presbyterian minister, man. He’s saved thousands of souls. He’s helped hundreds and thousands of people through all their tough times, you know. And that’s kind of the legacy that I’m looking at.”

But that’s not how our sport works.

March means everything.

If you can’t win on the biggest stage, if you don’t have that level of success when all eyes turn to college basketball, then everything you did during the previous four months is written off.

It’s not fair.

But that’s just how it is.

And now, nearly two decades removed from their introduction into the national consciousness, Gonzaga’s detractors no longer have that leg to stand on.