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Bracketology: Tar Heels vault to top line

North Carolina v Wake Forest

WINSTON-SALEM, NC - JANUARY 11: Justin Jackson #44 of the North Carolina Tar Heels reacts after a shot against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons during their game at LJVM Coliseum Complex on January 11, 2017 in Winston-Salem, North Carolina. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images)

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If today were Selection Sunday, and North Carolina was the ACC champion, the Selection Committee would likely be inclined to reward the Tar Heels with a No. 1 seed over a very strong Baylor team whose profile is equally impressive but lacks a conference title. In the world of splitting hairs, we just did. On that note, two interesting twists await. First, UNC hosts Louisville on Wednesday, and the Cardinals are No. 6 on the Seed List. If Louisville wins in Chapel Hill, the Cards could make a strong case for the top line on Thursday. Second, the Tar Heels close with an incredibly tough slate, going to Pittsburgh and Virginia before finishing at home with Duke. Baylor can easily play its way back up.

In the race for No. 1 seeds, Villanova and Kansas are sitting in strong positions as the regular season comes to a close. Should Gonzaga finish unbeaten, it would hard to drop the Zags from their No. 1 perch in the West. Which leaves, at least for now, one top seed up for grabs, and it could go any number of ways.

Another meh and blah weekend along the cutline. Should we lose solid mid-major programs like Middle Tennessee State, UNC Wilmington, and say, Monmouth or Illinois State during their conference championships, the Committee will have to heavily weigh a bunch of mediocre power teams versus some solid programs who have fewer chances for marquee wins.

UPDATED: February 20, 2017

Regarding bracketing principles, can read them for yourself at www.ncaa.com. For example: teams from the same conference may now meet before a Regional final, even if fewer than eight teams are selected. The goal is to keep as many teams as possible on their actual seed line.
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FIRST FOUR PAIRINGS - Dayton (First Round)


  • Georgia Tech vs. Marquette | South Region
  • Seton Hall vs. TCU | East Region
  • NORTH DAKOTA vs. UC-IRVINE | Midwest Region
  • MT. ST. MARY’S vs. NEW ORLEANSE | East Region

BRACKET PROJECTION ...

EAST - New YorkMIDWEST - Kansas City
BuffaloTulsa
1) VILLANOVA1) KANSAS
16) NEW ORLEANS / M.S. MARY’S16) NO. DAKOTA / UC-IRVINE
8) Dayton8) Minnesota
9) Miami-FL9) Arkansas
MilwaukeeMilwaukee
5) Virginia5) Notre Dame
12) UNC-WILMINGTON12) ILLINOIS STATE
4) PURDUE4) Butler
13) AKRON13) UT-ARLINGTON
IndianapolisOrlando
6) Saint Mary’s6) Wisconsin
11) Seton Hall / TCU11) Kansas State
3) Kentucky3) Florida State
14) PRINCETON14) BELMONT
IndianapolisSalt Lake City
7) Northwestern7) Iowa State
10) Wichita State10) Michigan
2) Louisville2) ARIZONA
15) BUCKNELL15) NO. DAKOTA ST
SOUTH - MemphisWEST - San Jose
GreenvilleSalt Lake City
1) NORTH CAROLINA1) GONZAGA
16) NC-CENTRAL16) TX-SOUTHERN
8) Xavier8) Virginia Tech
9) VCU9) USC
SacramentoBuffalo
5) Creighton5) CINCINNATI
12) VALPARAISO12) MONMOUTH
4) UCLA4) West Virginia
13) NEVADA13) VERMONT
OrlandoGreenville
6) SMU6) Maryland
11) Georgia Tech / Marquette11) MID TENNESSEE ST
3) FLORIDA3) Duke
14) UNC-ASHEVILLE14) FLA GULF COAST
TulsaSacramento
7) South Carolina7) Oklahoma State
10) California10) Michigan State
2) Baylor2) Oregon
15) FURMAN15) CSU-BAKERSFIELD

NOTES on the BRACKET: Villanova is the No. 1 overall seed, followed by Kansas, Gonzaga, and North Carolina.

Last Four Byes (at large): California, Michigan State, Wichita State, Kansas State

Last Four IN (at large): Seton Hall, TCU, Marquette, Georgia Tech

First Four OUT (at large): Providence, Syracuse, Clemson, Tennessee

Next four teams OUT (at large): Pittsburgh, Wake Forest, Indiana, Texas Tech

Breakdown by Conference ...

ACC (9): NORTH CAROLINA, Louisville, Duke, Florida State, Virginia, Notre Dame, Virginia Tech, Miami-FL, Georgia Tech

Big 10 (7): PURDUE, Wisconsin, Maryland, Northwestern, Minnesota, Michigan, Michigan State

Big 12 (7): KANSAS, Baylor, West Virginia, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, TCU

Big East (6): VILLANOVA, Butler, Creighton, Xavier, Seton Hall, Marquette

Pac 12 (5): OREGON, Arizona, UCLA, USC, California

SEC (4): FLORIDA, Kentucky, South Carolina, Arkansas

Atlantic 10 (2): VCU, Dayton

American (2): CINCINNATI, SMU

West Coast (2): GONZAGA, Saint Mary’s

Missouri Valley (1): ILLINOIS STATE, Wichita State

Mountain West (1): NEVADA

ONE BID LEAGUES: Monmouth (MAAC), Middle Tennessee State (C-USA), UT-Arlington (SBELT), Princeton (IVY), North Dakota (BSKY), Valparaiso (HORIZON), New Orleans (SLND), Furman (STHN), UC-Irvine (BWEST), Akron (MAC), Florida Gulf Coast (ASUN), Belmont (OVC), UNC-Wilmington (CAA), Winthrop (BSO), NC-Central (MEAC), North Dakota State (SUM), CSU-Bakersfield (WAC), Vermont (AEAST), Bucknell (PAT), Mt. St. Mary’s (NEC), Texas-Southern (SWAC)