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PRESEASON BRACKETOLOGY: What does the tournament field look like in November?

Roy Williams

Roy Williams

AP

The journey to March Madness begins Friday and the North Carolina Tar Heels open as the top overall seed in our preseason bracket projection. Carolina is joined on the top line by Kentucky, Maryland, and Kansas.

With that out of the way, let’s acknowledge the preseason bracket for what it is: A series of educated guesses. Some guesses will be on target (or close) and others will miss their mark completely. That’s the beauty of college hoops, much of what happens is unpredictable.

One of the many interesting teams is Louisville. How will off-court issues affect the Cardinals? How will several new faces blend together? There’s enough talent to suggest the Cards will be a lock to hear their name called on Selection Sunday. There are also enough questions to have doubts about how Louisville will navigate a deep field in the Atlantic Coast Conference. The fallout? Louisville is one of the final at-large teams in our preseason projected field. It could go either way.

The same holds true for other projected bubble teams just outside the opening Field of 68 - from Florida to Ohio State to UNLV. There a few mild surprises as projected conference champions. Depending on your point of view, these include Columbia (Ivy), Chattanooga (Southern), and Weber State (Big Sky).

Fortunately, games tip soon and all of these things will be decided on the court.

UPDATED: November 9, 2015

Teams in CAPS represent the projected AUTOMATIC bid. In the event of a tie in the loss column, RPI if first tiebreaker used. Exceptions are made for teams that use an abbreviation (UCLA, BYU). Several new bracketing principles were introduced in the past two years. You can read them for yourself at www.ncaa.com. The goal is to keep as many teams as possible on their actual seed line.

FIRST FOUR PAIRINGS - Dayton (First Round)


  • Louisville vs. Davidson | Midwest Region
  • Providence vs. Tulsa | West Region
  • MT. ST. MARY’S vs. WEBER ST | East Region
  • HAMPTON vs. TX-SOUTHERN | South Region

BRACKET PROJECTION ...

EAST - PhiladelphiaSOUTH - Louisville
RaleighSt. Louis
1) NORTH CAROLINA1) KENTUCKY
16) MT. ST. MARY’S / WEBER ST16) HAMPTON / TX-S’THERN
8) RHODE ISLAND8) NC State
9) Texas9) Dayton
DenverDenver
5) Oregon5) Notre Dame
12) OLD DOMINION12) BYU
4) Indiana4) Arizona
13) CENTRAL MICHIGAN13) BELMONT
BrooklynOklahoma City
6) Miami-FL6) Baylor
11) Georgia11) VALPARAISO
3) VILLANOVA3) WICHITA STATE
14) COLUMBIA14) CHATTANOOGA
Oklahoma CityDes Moines
7) Wisconsin7) Texas AM
10) UCLA10) Xavier
2) Oklahoma2) Michigan State
15) NEW MEXICO ST15) SO DAKOTA ST
WEST - AnaheimMIDWEST - Chicago
St. LouisRaleigh
1) KANSAS1) MARYLAND
16) STONY BROOK16) NO FLORIDA
8) LSU8) Butler
9) SAN DIEGO STATE9) Florida State
SpokaneProvidence
5) Purdue5) Vanderbilt
12) Providence / Tulsa12) Louisville / Davidson
4) GONZAGA4) CONNECTICUT
13) UL-LAFAYETTE13) IONA
SpokaneDes Moines
6) Michigan6) Utah
11) West Virginia11) S.F. AUSTIN
3) CALIFORNIA3) Iowa State
14) UC-IRVINE14) HOFSTRA
ProvidenceBrooklyn
7) Cincinnati7) Georgetown
10) Boise State10) Iowa
2) Virginia2) Duke
15) BUCKNELL15) CO CAROLINA

NOTES on the BRACKET: North Carolina is the No. 1 overall seed, followed by Kentucky, Maryland, and Kanas.

Last Four teams in (at large): Providence, Louisville, Tulsa, Davidson

First Four teams out (at large): Florida, Oregon State, Syracuse, Ohio State

Next four teams out (at large): UAB, Marquette, VCU, Illinois

Breakdown by Conference ...

ACC (8): North Carolina, Duke, Virginia, Notre Dame, Miami-FL, NC State, Florida State, Louisville

Big 10 (7): Maryland, Michigan State, Indiana, Purdue, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa

Big 12 (6): Kansas, Oklahoma, Iowa State, Baylor, Texas, West Virginia

Big East (5): Villanova, Georgetown, Butler, Xavier, Providence

Pac 12 (5): California, Arizona, Oregon, Utah, UCLA

SEC (5): Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Texas AM, LSU, Georgia

Atlantic 10 (3): Rhode Island, Dayton, Davidson

American (3): Connecticut, Cincinnati, Tulsa

Mountain West (2): San Diego State, Boise State

West Coast (2): Gonzaga, BYU

Missouri Valley (1): Wichita State

Conference USA (1): Old Dominion

ONE BID LEAGUES: UL-Lafayette (SBELT), Columbia (IVY), Weber State (BSKY), Valparaiso (HORIZON), S.F. Austin (SLND), Chattanooga (STHN), UC-Irvine (BWEST), Central Michigan (MAC), Iona (MAAC), North Florida (ASUN), Belmont (OVC), Hofstra (CAA), Coastal Carolina (BSO), Hampton (MEAC), South Dakota State (SUM), New Mexico State (WAC), Stony Brook (AEAST), Bucknell (PAT), Mt. St. Mary’s (NEC), Texas-Southern (SWAC)