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Bubble Banter: Monster day for teams on the cutline

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There are three days left until Selection Sunday. Every morning from now until the bracket comes out, we’ll help you get caught up on the happenings with impact on the bubble from the night before.

Our latest bracket projection can be found here.

(This post will update throughout the day)

WINNERS

Pitt: Pitt got the big win that they needed, knocking off North Carolina in the ACC tournament quarterfinals. That is easily the Panthers’ best win on the season and just their second top 50 win. With a 7-8 record against the top 100 and just two losses to teams outside the top 25, Jamie Dixon’s club should feel pretty good regardless of what happens on Saturday.

VIDEO: Watch the Atlantic 10’s top seed fall at the buzzer.

St. Joseph’s: In what probably amounted to a play-in game in the Atlantic 10 quarterfinals, Langston Galloway hit a step-back three with ten seconds left and the Hawks knocked off Dayton 71-67. It’s the Haws’ fifth top 50 win, moving them to 8-8 against the top 100 with a low-40s RPI and just a single sub-100 loss. Phil Martelli’s club should be safe right now.

Tennessee: The Vols did what Arkansas couldn’t: avoid a resume-killing loss by beating South Carolina. Tennessee will advance to take on Florida in the SEC semifinals. A win there would lock up a bid. A loss, however, and things get dicey. Tennessee is 7-7 against the top 100 with a 35-point win over Virginia, but they also now have four sub-100 losses thanks to UTEP’s slide. I think they’ll be OK with a loss to Florida, but a win would certainly makes things easier.

Providence: The Friars entered the day as one of a handful of teams sitting on the bubble’s cutline, which means that they simply could not afford losing to Seton Hall in the Big East semifinals. They beat the Pirates, but since Seton Hall has had a massively disappointing season, it’s a win that does nothing for the Providence resume. If they don’t win the automatic bid on Saturday night in the Big East title game, they are going to be sweating it out on Selection Sunday.

N.C. State: It’s been a while since N.C. State was actually in the bubble conversation, but after they beat Syracuse in the ACC quarterfinals, we have to put them there. The Wolfpack still have some work to do, and it starts with hoping that Duke beats Clemson and then taking out the Blue Devils on Saturday night. If that happens, than we can take a closer look at where Mark Gottfried’s boys stand.

LOSERS

Nebraska: The Cornhuskers blew an 18-point lead and lost to Ohio State in the Big Ten quarterfinals on Friday, putting themselves in a position where Selection Sunday is going to be a stressful affair. They have four top 50 wins — including Wisconsin and Michigan State on the road — and an 8-9 record against the top 100, but with three sub-100 losses and 3-10 record on the road, Nebraska is anything but safe. They may end up being a First Four team.

Minnesota: The Golden Gophers were on the outside looking in entering Friday, according to our Dave Ommen, and they got run off the floor by Wisconsin in the Big Ten quarterfinals. Minnesota will still have an outside chance of getting some good news on Selection Sunday, but as of right now things don’t look promising.

Southern Miss: The Golden Eagles resume was largely built around the fact that they have a great RPI. But with just one top 50 win and only a 3-4 record against the top 100 after a loss to Louisiana Tech on Friday, USM is out of the conversation.

Dayton: The Flyers were on the wrong end of a close call in a loss to St. Joe’s in the Atlantic 10 quarterfinals, but that’s not the kind of loss that will hurt their resume all that much. Dayton was a No. 10 seed entering the day in our latest bracket. The Flyers have four top 30 wins, a 10-7 record against the top 100 and an RPI of 39. Even with three sub-100 losses, the Flyers should be OK on Sunday, but they may be headed for a home game in Dayton in the First Four.

Xavier: The Musketeers had a chance to lock up a bid to the tournament on Friday when they squared off with Creighton in the Big East semifinals, but the Musketeers couldn’t come through. The good news? The Musketeers put themselves in a good enough spot that they should be able to survive the loss thanks to the fact that so many of the other teams below them lost on Friday as well. Xavier is 9-9 against the top 100 with a pair of elite wins over Cincinnati and Creighton, which should be enough to survive losses to three sub-100 teams.

Florida State: The Seminoles lost to Virginia in the first ACC quarterfinal of the day, putting them in a precarious situation when it comes to earning an at-large bid. The loss certainly doesn’t hurt their resume, but the issue is that they may not have done enough to get into the dance in the first place. As of this morning, our Dave Ommen had Florida State as the last team in the dance, and most other bubble projections place the Seminoles squarely on the bubble’s cutline. The problem? A number of other teams on the cutline are still playing in their league tournaments. Providence, Minnesota, Tennessee, Dayton, Saint Joseph’s. Florida State has an RPI in the low-50s, a 3-9 record against the top 50 and six top 100 wins. Will that be enough?

Missouri: The Tigers got smoked in the second half by Florida, as the Gators closed out a 72-49 win with a 34-13 surge. The Tigers are now in the same spot as Florida State. A loss to Florida doesn’t destroy their resume, but it doesn’t improve it, either. And as of this morning, the Tigers were on the wrong side of the cutline, according to Dave Ommen. They have just two top 50 wins and a 7-9 record against the top 100 with a pair of sub-100 losses on their resume as well. Will that be enough? I don’t think I’d be comfortable with that.

Alabama upsets No. 15 Texas A&M as Aggies continue recent freefall

Alabama guard Retin Obasohan (32) scores against Texas A&M during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game Wednesday, Feb. 10, 2016, in Tuscaloosa, Ala. (AP Photo/Brynn Anderson)
(AP Photo/Brynn Anderson)
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Alabama played inspired ball on both ends of the floor and held on to upset No. 15 Texas A&M 63-62 in an SEC thriller on Wednesday night. Trailing by one point with less than three seconds left, Texas A&M had a chance to tie or take the lead with senior Anthony Collins at the line for two free throws. But Collins, one of the nation’s best free-throw shooters at 92 percent on the season, missed both free throws in a heartbreaking loss for the Aggies.

The Crimson Tide controlled the glass most of the game by outrebounding the Aggies 36-29 and also forced 13 Texas A&M turnovers. The loss for Texas A&M means they’ve lost four of their last five games and four straight games in the SEC.

Retin Obasahon led Alabama (14-9, 5-6) with 16 points as he made a lot of big plays in the second half to put the team on his back. The win means the Crimson Tide have won three consecutive games and defeated four ranked opponents during the season. Riley Norris added 11 points for the Crimson Tide while Shannon Hale was also in double-figures with 10 points.

Although Texas A&M (18-6, 7-4) did better with their recent shaky 3-point defense, holding Alabama to 8-for-25 (32 percent) from distance, they were outhustled on the glass for much of the game and couldn’t overcome a slow start. Senior Jalen Jones finished with 21 points and seven rebounds while Danuel House had 12 points and Collins finished with 11.

This loss is absolutely killer for Texas A&M, as they continue to slide down the SEC standings. The recent road woes for the Aggies also continued as they’ve lost three straight away from home. The schedule doesn’t get much easier for the Aggies the next few games, either, as they travel to LSU and then host Ole Miss and Kentucky. Texas A&M is in a potential freefall right now and they went from a major contender in the SEC to a team that just needs to get back on track.

As for Alabama, this is another solid win for head coach Avery Johnson in his first season. It’s hard to say if Johnson got some scouting advice from his son Avery Johnson Jr., a redshirt guard for the Crimson Tide who played for the Aggies last season, but they’ll certainly take this tight win. Alabama is now 5-1 in one-possession games this season and there’s something to be said for that mark.

BUBBLE BANTER: Key Atlantic 10, Big East bubble games

Kelan Martin, Kyle Alexander
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This post will be updated throughout the night.

WASHINGTON, D.C. — This is the win that Saint Joseph’s (KenPom: 48, RPI: 30) needed.

Entering Wednesday night, the Hawks were a paper tiger, a team with terrific computers numbers despite the fact that they hadn’t actually accomplished much of anything this season.

Well, that’s not exactly true. They are now 20-4 on the season and 10-2 in the Atlantic 10. They haven’t lost to anyone ranked outside the RPI top 50, and while that seems like it should be a simple thing to do, upsets happen all the time in college basketball. Not losing to anyone that stinks is one of the marks of a good team.

The problem, however, is that prior to their trip to Foggy Bottom on Wednesday, the best win that St. Joe’s had on the season … Princeton? At Temple? They were without an RPI top 50 win and, if you factor in Buffalo, the Hawks and three top 100 wins on their résumé.

That’s not exactly the stuff of at-large bids.

And then Wednesday happened, and the Hawks went into the Smith Center and hammered a good George Washington team by 18 points, the same GW team that went into Richmond on Saturday and handed VCU their first loss of the conference season.

It looks like nothing more than a top 50 road win on their profile, but for at least one person that was in attendance (Hi!), it was something of a statement win. I had my doubts about the group, and while the eye-test is totally subjective and probably the worst way to gauge whether or not a team is a tournament team, they certainly passed my eye-test today.

WINNERS

  • Butler (KenPom: 41, RPI; 67): The Bulldogs landed a critical win on Wednesday night, as they went into Newark and knocked off a Seton Hall team that is probably better than you realize. That’s an RPI top 50 win on the road that’s getting added to a résumé that, entering the night, had just a single top 50 win. Period. The Bulldogs still have plenty of work to do, but with their only two bad losses coming on the road against league competition and five wins against the top 100 with four coming away from Hinkle Fieldhouse, Chris Holtmann’s club has positioned themselves nicely to not only get a bid but get a solid seed as well.

LOSERS

  • Seton Hall (KenPom: 31, RPI: 37): Losing to Butler certainly doesn’t help Seton Hall’s cause, but this isn’t a bad loss. The Pirates are still without a sub-100 loss, although this does drop them to 6-7 against the RPI top 100 with a pair top 50 wins. They’re still in the tournament as of today, and probably with some room to spare.
  • George Washington (KenPom: 71, RPI: 34): There are two positives to take out of GW’s loss to Saint Joseph’s on Wednesday night: 1) The Hawks may end up being an RPI top 25 team once the numbers are crunched overnight, so this is anything but a bad loss, and 2) This 18-point drubbing will look exactly the same as a one-point loss at the buzzer in the eyes of the selection committee.

LSU (KenPom: 53, RPI: 76) at South Carolina (KenPom: 45, RPI: 28), 7:00 p.m.
Nebraska at Wisconsin (KenPom: 51, RPI: 62), 7:00 p.m.
Missouri at Vanderbilt (KenPom: 35, RPI: 58), 9:00 p.m.
No. 14 Iowa State at Texas Tech (KenPom: 59, RPI: 51), 9:00 p.m.
Michigan (KenPom: 46, RPI: 56) at Minnesota, 9:00 p.m.
Washington (KenPom: 80, RPI: 57) at Utah (KenPom: 44, RPI: 16), 9:00 p.m.
San Diego State (KenPom: 65, RPI: 47) at Fresno State, 11:00 p.m.