Bubble Banter: Who will earn a bid to the Big Dance?

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There are three days left until Selection Sunday. Every morning from now until the bracket comes out, we’ll help you get caught up on the happenings with impact on the bubble from the night before.

Our latest bracket projection can be found here.

(This post will update throughout the day)

WINNERS

Florida State: The Seminoles picked up a win in their first game in the ACC tournament, knocking off Maryland in a game that will go down as their sixth top 100 win of the season. Florida State entered the day a good distance on the wrong side of the bubble, and a win over Maryland isn’t going to change that. But it does give them a chance to pick up a win over Virginia tomorrow. That may not get them in, either, but beating the ACC regular season champs would get them some hope on Selection Sunday.

Providence: The Friars survived a furious comeback by St. John’s and an awful night from Bryce Cotton to advance into the semifinals of the Big East tournament where they will take on Seton Hall. That’s good and bad news. Beating the Pirates will be easier than beating Villanova, but that now means that if Providence doesn’t make the finals, they won’t be dancing. The problem? A win on Friday won’t necessarily lock up a bid, either. If I’m the Friars, I don’t settle for anything less than the automatic bid.

MORE: Get to know all of the NCAA Tournament’s automatic bids here.

Missouri: The Tigers did everything they could to try and lose to Texas A&M, but despite blowing leads in regulation and in overtime while having both Jabari Brown and Jordan Clarkson foul out, they got the win. Beating Texas A&M doesn’t do much for the Tigers’ resume, however. But it does give them a chance to beat Florida, and a without a win over the Gators, Missouri is going to have a long, stressful Selection Sunday, as a middling RPI and just two top 50 wins is not going to be easy to overcome.

Dayton: The Flyers entered Thursday on the right side of the bubble, and they will likely stay there (for now) after knocking off Fordham in the first round of the Atlantic 10 tournament. They are 9-6 against the top 100 right now, and while they do have three sub-100 losses, those three top-20 wins look really, really good. Dayton may even be able to survive a loss to St. Joseph’s in Friday’s quarterfinal.

Pitt: The Panthers blew out Wake Forest in their first-ever ACC tournament game, advancing to face North Carolina in the quarterfinals on Friday. Win that game, and Pitt is probably in the dance. Lose, and they’ll be sweating out Selection Sunday. They have just one top 50 win (Stanford) and six top 100 wins. North Carolina would be, by far, their best win this season.

Xavier: The Musketeers survived Marquette on Thursday, putting themselves in a position to clinch a bid with a win over Creighton on Friday. The Musketeers are 22-11 on the season with three top 50 wins — including Creighton and Cincinnati — and a 9-8 record against the top 100. The three sub-100 losses are a red flag, but they have enough good wins that they might be able to survive a loss to the Bluejays.

Stanford: The Cardinal picked up the win that they needed on Thursday, pounding Arizona State in the Pac-12 quarterfinals. They have five top 50 wins, an 8-11 record against the top 100 and not a single ugly loss on their resume. They should be safe.

Minnesota: The Gophers knocked off Penn State on Thursday which puts them into a position where Friday’s date with Wisconsin will be a play-in game for them. Win that they’re probably in. A loss, however, will make things interesting. The Gophers are currently 20-12 overall with three top 50 wins and six top 100 wins, but they’re just 6-10 against the top 100. Their strength of schedule is in the top 10, but they have a couple of sub-100 losses. In other words, it’s very bubbly, and losing to Wisconsin will probably leave them sitting squarely on the cutline.

Southern Miss: The Golden Eagles have slowly but surely climbed their way into the at-large conversation. Their RPI is in the mid-30s, but they have just one top 50 win and three top 100 wins to go along with two sub-100 losses. To be frank, I can’t see Southern Miss jumping the teams in front of them if they lose in the Conference USA tournament. It’s likely auto-bid or bust.

Colorado: The Buffaloes were probably safe entering today’s game with Cal. They beat Cal. They’re just that much safer now. Enjoy the dance, gents.

RELATED: Is your team in the field of 68? Check our latest Bracketology

LOSERS

Iowa: Tell me: why is Iowa a lock to get an automatic bid to the NCAA tournament? After losing 67-62 to Northwestern in the first round of the Big Ten tournament the Hawkeyes are 20-12 overall with an RPI that will likely fall below 50 once the numbers get updated. They’re 4-8 against the top 50 and 6-11 against the top 100 with the one loss to Northwestern coming to a sub-100 team. If that’s not enough, Iowa’s non-conference SOS ranks 182nd nationally. They are probably safe, but by no means is this team a lock right now. I would not be surprised if they ended up in Dayton.

Making Iowa’s case all the more interesting is that they are actually top 20 in KenPom’s rankings. This is a good basketball team that, unfortunately, choked away too many close games early in the season and simply played too poorly late in the year.

SMU: The Mustangs lost to Houston in the opening round of the AAC tournament. Now we have to ask: is this team really a lock to dance? They have just four top 100 wins, but all four are top 30 wins. They are 23-10 on the season with three losses to sub-150 teams. Their non-conference SOS is 291st. SMU is going to be rooting hard against some of the other bubble teams out there.

Cal: The Bears lost to Colorado on Thursday, putting them in a really tough spot. Entering the day, Cal was the first team out, according to our Dave Ommen, and this loss certainly doesn’t put them in a better position. The Bears have four wins against the top 50 — which includes a win over Arizona — but they are now 4-10 against the top 50 and just 8-12 against the top 100. 13 losses is a high number.

Arkansas: The Razorbacks suffered just a brutal loss to South Carolina in the SEC first round on Thursday, one that will likely keep them on the wrong side of the bubble come Selection Sunday. We went more in depth here.

St. John’s: The Johnnies nearly came all the way back from 15 points down again Providence but couldn’t quite finish it off. They were on the wrong side of the bubble entering the day, which means Steve Lavin’s club is NIT-bound.

Utah: The Utes needed to beat Arizona to get back into the conversation. They lost. And it was never close. Enjoy the NIT.

Report: Texas’ Jones to test NBA possibility

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Both of Texas’ McDonald’s All-Americans from its 2016 class will test the NBA waters.

Andrew Jones will declare for the draft, but will not hire an agent, according to ESPN’s Jeff Goodman.

The 6-foot-4 guard joins Jarrett Allen, the Longhorns’ star center, in utilizing the rule change that became available to players last year in which they can declare, workout for teams, attend the NBA combine and still return to school.

Jones averaged 11.4 points, 3.9 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game as a freshman. He shot 42.5 percent from the field overall and 32.8 percent from 3-point range.

Allen seems the likelier candidate to remain in the draft as a potential lottery pick, but Jones came to Austin with similar one-and-done possibilities given his status as one of the class’ top recruits.

Texas, of course, is hoping both return, not just because they’re both big talents, but because incoming and highly-touted recruit Matt Coleman fills the major hole in last year’s lineup – point guard. If the three of them can share the floor together, Year 3 of the Shaka Smart era will be much more interesting.

Morrow announces transfer from Nebraska

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Nebraska was once again hit with a surprising and damaging transfer.

Ed Morrow, Jr., who led the Huskers in rebounding last year, announced his intention to transfer, the school announced Wednesday.

“I support Ed in his decision to transfer schools and wish him well,” Nebraska coach Tim Miles said in a statement. “We appreciate his hard work over the last two years. Although I am disappointed, we will continue to recruit young men who are committed to our mission of building Nebraska Basketball with a culture of success in all areas…life, school and winning basketball at its highest level.”

The 6-foot-7 sophomore’s departure is a major hit to the Huskers, who are coming off a 12-19 year in which Miles’ job security was called into question. It almost assuredly will be again this year as Nebraska hasn’t been able to build on its 2014 NCAA tournament appearance, instead putting together three-straight losing seasons.

Morrow’s decision is surprising not only given he’d been a productive member of the team – averaging 9.4 points and 7.5 rebounds per game – but because he was born in Nebraska before attending high school in Chicago and both his parents were Nebraska student-athletes his father winning a national title on the football team in 1994 and his mother an all-Big Eight performer on the basketball team.

“I want to say thank you to my teammates, coaches, the fans and the University of Nebraska athletics department for giving me the opportunity to play Division I basketball,” Morrow said in a statement. “It is hard to leave home, and Nebraska is my home. I was born and raised here, it is my parents’ alma mater, and I have a lot of friends here. But sometimes you have to venture out to pursue dreams and aspirations in a career. This is a sacrifice I have to make to better myself.”

Morrow’s transfer comes a year after Andrew White surprised Nebraska with his decision to graduate and transfer to Syracuse, which no doubt impacted the Huskers’ poor 2016-17 record.

Miles was on the hot seat at the end of last season and will assuredly begin this season there as well. A roster hit like Morrow won’t do much to help him improve the situation. Nebraska does, however, have three starters returning while Georgetown transfer Isaac Copeland is eligible, as is Miami (Fla.) transfer James Palmer, Jr.

Lonzo Ball says “I’m better than” Markelle Fultz

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Usually, it’s LaVar Ball that makes news for what he says.

His eldest son is now getting in on the business of generating headlines with something other than his play.

The UCLA star, who said he’ll enter the draft after just one season with the Bruins, claimed he’s the better prospect than Washington freshman Markelle Fultz, who many have pegged as the No. 1 pick in June’s draft.

“Markelle’s a great player,” Ball said, according to ESPN, “but I feel I’m better than him,” “I think I can lead a team better than him. Obviously he’s a great scorer — he’s a great player, so I’m not taking that away from him.”

Not exactly inflammatory stuff – like saying you could have beaten Michael Jordan, that you want a $1 billion apparel deal or a number of things his father has said – bu Ball is certainly projecting confidence. And there’s absolutely nothing wrong with that. There’s quite a bit of money – and pride – at stake with the draft, and Ball put up a season worthy of comparison to Fultz, who had great numbers but played for an abysmal Washington team. Ball, on the other had, had strong numbers while leading UCLA to the Sweet 16.

Both are going to go at the top of a draft that’s stocked full of promising point guards. Which player goes before the other remains to be seen, but it’s likely public pronouncements aren’t going to affect the draft order.

 

UMass hires McCall away from Chattanooga

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UMass has found, once more, the man to take over its basketball program.

The Minutemen have reached an agreement with Chattanooga coach Matt McCall, the school announce Wednesday

“The tradition and resources that are in place not only make this one of the best basketball jobs in the Atlantic 10 Conference,” McCall said in a statement released by the school, “but one of the best jobs in the country. We couldn’t be more excited about becoming part of the UMass family and look forward to building upon the rich tradition that has been established here in the past.”

In McCall’s two years at Chattanooga, the Mocs to the NCAA tournament in 2016 and a 19-12 record this year that featured five-straight losses to end the season.

The move will take McCall out of the southeast for the first time in his career as he previously served as at Florida and Florida Atlantic before getting his first head coaching job at Chattanooga.

McCall wasn’t the Minutemen’s first choice to replace Derek Kellogg after three-straight lackluster seasons. Winthrop coach Pat Kelsey had agreed to take the job before a last-minute about-face that saw him return to the Eagles program just before his introductory press conference was scheduled to begin.

“Matt is a rising star in college basketball coaching who has been a key piece of three successful programs in his career,” UMass athletic director Ryan Bamford said in a statement. “He has earned a reputation as a relentless worker, a great teammate and colleague and a confident leader of young men.

“Matt has worked with some of the most respected coaches and administrators in the country, who loudly sing his praises. Coach McCall’s appointment begins an exciting new chapter for our tradition-rich men’s basketball program at UMass.”

Despite being the second choice, McCall’s reputation in the coaching industry makes him a strong hire, having worked under Mike Jarvis and Billy Donovan. He took over at Chattanooga for Will Wade, and brought the Mocs to a 29-6 record and a  12-seed in the NCAA tournament in 2016.

UMass went to just one NCAA tournament under Kellogg (in 2014) during his nine seasons leading the Minutemen.

VIDEO: Frank Martin’s sideline demeanor as a high school coach

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South Carolina coach Frank Martin has the reputation of being rather, shall we say, intense on the sidelines during games.

The coach has a stare that seemingly could bore a hole through his players when they do something that doesn’t reach his level of expectation. Martin’s demeanor, though, didn’t just come into form once he hit the college ranks.

He was plenty intense on high school sidelines as well.

Martin won three titles while at Miami Senior in the mid-1990s, coaching the likes of future pros Steve Blake and Udonis Haslem. Now having reached his first career Final Four, that sideline persona has put him on the precipice of winning yet another championship, this time at the collegiate level.