Joel Embiid, Scottie Wilbekin

Bracketology: Eight teams in play for No. 1 seeds

source: Getty Images
Photo credit: Getty images

Championship Week begins tomorrow.  It’s time to start handing out Dance tickets.

The two teams leading our March Madness Gala … Florida and Arizona.  The Gators and Wildcats both have the opportunity to enter the NCAA Tournament dance as the overall No. 1 seed.  Should both win their remaining games – including conference tournament titles – the edge will likely to go Arizona.  Not that it’s that critical this year because the two teams are geographically separated.  Florida will lead the South Region; Arizona the West.  A year ago, when Louisville and Indiana were battling for the top spot in the Midwest, and a route through Indianapolis, that top position meant more.

Wichita State begins Missouri Valley Tournament play today in St. Louis.  The Shockers ended the regular season without a blemish.  If they win three more under the Arch, expect WSU to be a No. 1 seed on Selection Sunday.  Kansas continues to hold the final No. 1 slot.  Four other teams are chasing the top line: Wisconsin, Michigan, Virginia, and Villanova.  Recent struggles make it difficult for Syracuse to regain a No. 1 seed.

MORE: Duke-UNC headlines a packed college hoops weekend

It’s going to be another busy week on the bubble.  With so many teams tightly bunched around the cutline we’ll find out who plays their way in or out.  Keep a close eye on conference tournaments in the Big East, Atlantic 10, SEC, Big Ten and Pac-12.  In particular, those leagues have several teams with an uncertain prognosis.

Those same teams will be watching conference tournaments in the Missouri Valley and Horizon League, among others.  If Wichita State were to lose, one less at-large berth will be available.  And what if Green Bay reaches the Horizon final and loses a close game?  Whether or not the Phoenix would earn an at-large bid is up for debate.  But they will certainly be discussed inside the Selection Committee bunker.

Enjoy the Madness.

Teams in CAPS represent the projected AUTOMATIC bid based on current standings with RPI as a tiebreaker for teams with the same number of losses. Exceptions are made for teams that use an abbreviation (UCLA, BYU, etc).

Several new bracketing principles were introduced after last year’s tournament. You can read them for yourself at For example: teams from the same conference may now meet before a Regional final, even if fewer than eight teams are selected. The goal is to keep as many teams as possible on their actual seed line.

FIRST FOUR PAIRINGS – Dayton (First Round)

  • Missouri vs. Dayton | Midwest Region
  • Pittsburgh vs. BYU | West Region
  • ALABAMA STATE vs. UTAH VALLEY | South Region
  • WEBER STATE vs. HIGH POINT | Midwest Region


SOUTH – Memphis WEST Anaheim                             
Orlando San Diego
8) Baylor 8) SMU
9) GONZAGA 9) Oklahoma State
Spokane Orlando
5) Louisville 5) Oklahoma
12) LOUISIANA TECH 12) BYU / Pittsburgh
4) North Carolina 4) Michigan State
San Antonio Buffalo
6) NEW MEXICO 6) Ohio State
11) GREEN BAY 11) Stanford
3) Creighton 3) Syracuse
Milwaukee Buffalo
7) SAINT LOUIS 7) Kansas State
10) Oregon 10) Saint Joseph’s
EAST – New York MIDWEST – Indianapolis
St. Louis St. Louis
8) Memphis 8) Iowa
9) George Washington 9) Arizona State
Spokane San Diego
5) UCLA 5) Texas
12) HARVARD 12) Missouri / Dayton
4) San Diego State 4) Duke
Raleigh San Antonio
6) Kentucky 6) Connecticut
11) Georgetown 11) Xavier
3) CINCINNATI 3) Iowa State
14) S.F. AUSTIN 14) IONA
Raleigh Milwaukee
7) Massachusetts 7) VCU
10) Colorado 10) Arkansas
2) VIRGINIA 2) Wisconsin

NOTES on the BRACKET: Florida remains the overall No. 1 seed followed by Arizona, Wichita State, and Kansas.

Last Five teams in (at large): Georgetown, BYU, Dayton, Pittsburgh, Missouri

First Five teams out (at large): California, Tennessee, Providence, Nebraska, Minnesota

Next five teams out (at large): Florida State, St. John’s, LSU, Clemson, Southern Miss

Breakdown by Conference …

Big 12 (7): Kansas, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Texas, Baylor, Oklahoma State

Pac 12 (6): Arizona, UCLA, Stanford, Arizona State, Oregon, Colorado

Atlantic 10 (6): Massachusetts, VCU, Saint Louis, George Washington, Saint Joseph’s, Dayton

Big Ten (5): Michigan State, Michigan, Ohio State, Iowa, Wisconsin

ACC (5): Duke, Virginia, Syracuse, North Carolina, Pittsburgh

American (5): Louisville, Memphis, Connecticut, Cincinnati, SMU

SEC (4): Kentucky, Florida, Missouri, Arkansas

Big East (4): Creighton, Villanova, Xavier, Georgetown

Mountain West (2): New Mexico, San Diego State

West Coast (2): Gonzaga, BYU

Missouri Valley (1): Wichita State

Conference Automatic Qualifiers … Louisiana Tech (C-USA), Belmont (Ohio Valley), Georgia State (Sun Belt), Boston University (Patriot), North Dakota State (Summit), Green Bay (Horizon), Davidson (Southern), Utah Valley (WAC), Iona (MAAC), Stephen F. Austin (Southland), Toledo (MAC), Florida Gulf Coast (A-Sun), Harvard (IVY), UC-Irvine (Big West), Delaware (Colonial), Vermont (American East), Weber State (Big Sky), NC-Central (MEAC), High Point (Big South), Robert Morris (NEC), Alabama State (SWAC)

POSTERIZED: Wyoming’s Josh Adams takes flight

Josh Adams
Associated Press
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Not only is Wyoming senior guard Josh Adams the lone returning starter from a team that won the Mountain West tournament last season, but he’s also one of college basketball’s best dunkers. And if anyone may have forgotten about his jumping ability, Adams put it on display Saturday during the Cowboys’ win over Montana State.

After splitting two Montana State players at the top of the key Adams attacked the basket, dunking with two hands over a late-arriving help-side defender. If you’re going to rotate over, have to do it quicker than that.

Video credit: Wyoming Athletics

Defensive progress will determine No. 4 Iowa State’s ceiling

Monte Morris
Associated Press
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Even with the coaching change from Fred Hoiberg to Steve Prohm, No. 4 Iowa State remains one of the nation’s best offensive teams. Given their skills on that end of the floor many teams find it tough to go score for score with the Cyclones, and that’s what happened to Illinois in Iowa State’s 84-73 win in the Emerald Coast Classic title game.

Georges Niang scored 23 points and grabbed eight rebounds, with Monté Morris adding 20, nine rebounds and six assists and Abdel Nader 18 points as the Cyclones moved to 5-0 on the season. The three-pointers weren’t falling in the second half, as Iowa State shot 0-f0r-12, but they shot 19-for-24 inside of the arc to pull away from a team that lost big man Mike Thorne Jr. late in the first half to a left knee injury.

Illinois’ loss of size in the paint opened things up offensively for Iowa State, and the Cyclones took advantage. But where this group grabbed control of the game was on the defensive end of the floor, and that will be the key for a team with Big 12 and national title aspirations.

Nader took on the responsibility of defending Illinois’ Malcolm Hill (20 points) in the second half and did a solid job of keeping the junior wing in check, with that serving as the spark to a 12-2 run that put the game away. There’s no denying that the Cyclones can put points on the board; most of the talent from last season is back and the productivity on that end of the floor hasn’t changed as a result. Niang’s one of the nation’s best forwards, and both Morris (who now ranks among the country’s best point guards) and Nader have taken significant strides in their respective games.

Iowa State will add Deonte Burton in December, giving them another option to call upon. Front court depth is a bit of a concern, as Iowa State can ill afford to lose a Niang or Jameel McKay, but there’s enough on the roster to compensate for that and force mismatches in other areas.

But the biggest question for this group is how effective they can become at stringing together stops. Illinois certainly had its moments in both halves Saturday night, but Iowa State also showed during the game’s decisive stretch that they can step up defensively. The key now is to do so consistently, and if that occurs the Cyclones can be a threat both within the Big 12 and nationally.