Bracketology: Valentines for Wichita State and West Virginia

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source: AP

In the spirit of Valentine’s Day, the February 14 bracket projection offers special gifts to Wichita State and West Virginia.

After chasing the top line for a month or so, Wichita State holds the final No. 1 seed (Midwest) in today’s bracket.  And West Virginia has the distinction of being today’s final team IN the Field of 68.  Whether either team holds onto its current status remains to be seen.

Several heavyweights are vying for top seeds – including Kansas and Michigan State.  Should Wichita State reach Selection Sunday with an unbeaten record, it’ll be interesting to see how the Selection Committee handles the Shockers.  Especially if Kansas and Michigan State, for example, were to win Big 12 and Big Ten titles.  We also can’t forget about the potential for strong finishes from Villanova and Michigan, or even Duke – if the Blue Devils were to win the ACC.

The bubble continues to be a mosh pit.  It changes daily.  West Virginia and St. John’s are two teams who have steadily climbed the seed list during the past couple of weeks.  They are right next to each other on the s-curve if you remove the lower-seeded automatic qualifiers.  St. John’s happens to be today’s first team OUT.  Come Monday, things could well be different.  It’s been that kind of season around the cutline.  Even with all of their recent troubles, Oregon and Baylor remain capable of grabbing bids (again) in the next couple of weeks.  And who knows about the SEC beyond Florida and Kentucky.

Enjoy a great weekend of college hoops.

UPDATED: February 14, 2014

Teams in CAPS represent the projected AUTOMATIC bid based on current standings with RPI as a tiebreaker for teams with the same number of losses. Exceptions are made for teams that use an abbreviation (UCLA, BYU, etc).

Several new bracketing principles were introduced after last year’s tournament. You can read them for yourself at http://www.ncaa.com. For example: teams from the same conference may now meet before a Regional final, even if fewer than eight teams are selected. The goal is to keep as many teams as possible on their actual seed line.

FIRST FOUR PAIRINGS – Dayton (First Round)

  • Saint Joseph’s vs. Tennessee | East Region
  • Providence vs. West Virginia | South Region
  • SOUTHERN vs. UTAH VALLEY | Midwest Region
  • ROBERT MORRIS vs. COASTAL CAROLINA | East Region

BRACKET PROJECTION …

EASTNew York WEST Anaheim                                
Buffalo San Diego
1) SYRACUSE 1) ARIZONA
16) ROB MORRIS / CO CAROLINA 16) WEBER STATE
8) Massachusetts 8) GONZAGA
9) Xavier 9) SMU
Spokane Spokane
5) Ohio State 5) SAINT LOUIS
12) TOLEDO 12) GREEN BAY
4) Kentucky 4) Iowa State
13) IONA 13) BELMONT
Raleigh Milwaukee
6) UCLA 6) Connecticut
11) Tennessee / Saint Joseph’s 11) Georgetown
3) CINCINNATI 3) MICHIGAN
14) GEORGIA STATE 14) UC-SANTA BARBARA
Buffalo San Antonio
7) North Carolina 7) Memphis
10) Colorado 10) California
2) VILLANOVA 2) SAN DIEGO STATE
15) VERMONT 15) YALE
MIDWEST – Indianapolis SOUTH – Memphis
St. Louis Orlando
1) WICHITA STATE 1) FLORIDA
16) UTAH VALLEY / SOUTHERN 16) DAVIDSON
8) New Mexico 8) VCU
9) George Washington 9) Oklahoma State
San Diego Orlando
5) Texas 5) Iowa
12) SOUTHERN MISS 12) Providence / West Virginia
4) Wisconsin 4) Virginia
13) MERCER 13) DELAWARE
Raleigh San Antonio
6) Louisville 6) Oklahoma
11) Minnesota 11) Missouri
3) Duke 3) Creighton
14) S.F. AUSTIN 14) NORTH DAKOTA ST
St. Louis Milwaukee
7) Pittsburgh 7) Kansas State
10) Arizona State 10) Stanford
2) KANSAS 2) Michigan State
15) NC-CENTRAL 15) AMERICAN

NOTES on the BRACKET: Syracuse is the overall No. 1 seed followed by Arizona, Florida, and Wichita State.

Last Five teams in (at large): Missouri, Tennessee, Providence, Saint Joseph’s, West Virginia

First Five teams out (at large): St. John’s, Dayton, LSU, Richmond, BYU

Next five teams out (at large): Louisiana Tech, Florida State, Arkansas, NC State, Saint Mary’s

Breakdown by Conference …

Big 12 (7): Kansas, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Texas, West Virginia

Pac 12 (6): Arizona, Colorado, UCLA, California, Stanford, Arizona State

Big Ten (6): Michigan State, Michigan, Ohio State, Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota

ACC (5): Duke, Syracuse, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Virginia

American (5): Louisville, Memphis, Connecticut, Cincinnati, SMU

Big East (5): Creighton, Villanova, Xavier, Providence, Georgetown

Atlantic 10 (5): Massachusetts, VCU, Saint Louis, Geo Washington, Saint Joseph’s

SEC (4): Kentucky, Florida, Tennessee, Missouri

Mountain West (2): New Mexico, San Diego State

West Coast (1): Gonzaga

Missouri Valley (1): Wichita State

Conference Automatic Qualifiers … Southern Miss (C-USA), Belmont (Ohio Valley), Georgia State (Sun Belt), American (Patriot), North Dakota State (Summit), Green Bay (Horizon), Davidson (Southern), Utah Valley (WAC), Iona (MAAC), Stephen F. Austin (Southland), Toledo (MAC), Mercer (A-Sun), Yale (IVY), UC-Santa Barbara (Big West), Delaware (Colonial), Vermont (American East), Weber State (Big Sky), NC-Central (MEAC), Coastal Carolina (Big South), Robert Morris (NEC), Southern (SWAC)

Missouri’s Martin ready for game against former Vols team

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COLUMBIA, Mo. (AP) — Missouri coach Cuonzo Martin has a job to do.

It doesn’t matter that his next game is against No. 21 Tennessee (12-4, 3-2 Southeastern Conference), a team he coached for three seasons. It doesn’t matter that it involves a fan base that didn’t exactly love Martin when he coached there.

Martin has to coach his players, and that’s that.

“Fans have the right to be fans if they want to be fans,” Martin said Tuesday, the day before the game. “It’s your choice to be a fan. I’m not going to tell you how to be a fan. It’s my job to do my job.”

Martin, now in his first year at Missouri, coached at Tennessee from 2011-2014. He went 63-41, with two NIT appearances and one NCAA regional semifinal berth.

But the last season, 2013-2014, was the most significant. With Tennessee on the NCAA Tournament bubble, a petition began circulating. Tennessee fans wanted to bring back Bruce Pearl, who was fired in 2011 because of an NCAA investigation. Martin was never as popular as Pearl in Knoxville, Tennessee.

“I’d like to think people appreciated the job he did because I think he did really a terrific job,” Tennessee coach Rick Barnes said. “I’m not sure how he was embraced. If he wasn’t truly embraced, people should be ashamed because I’m going to tell you, the guy’s a heck of a person, he’s a heck of a basketball coach.”

During that last season, Martin said he couldn’t get caught up in what was going on outside of his team. Tennessee was one of the last four teams to make the tournament. The Vols ended up in the Sweet 16, beating Iowa, Massachusetts and Mercer to get there before losing by 2 points to Michigan. Martin left for Cal after the season.

“More than anything, I had to keep their level of composure, because again, when you fight you battle together,” Martin said of that final season with the Vols. “I think there was mixed emotions for the guys from the standpoint of it was our coach, and they’re airing these things and how do we perceive them. It was strange. And like I told those guys, this is life and you have to push forward . Just a teaching point.”

On Wednesday, Missouri (12-5, 2-2) hosts the Vols in Mizzou Arena. For Martin, it doesn’t mean anything more than another conference game. Missouri has to be ready for Barnes’ talented team, and vice versa. Barnes said he has a lot of respect for Martin and what he has done in the short time he’s been in Columbia.

Missouri was just 8-24 last year, leading to Kim Anderson’s ouster, but has designs on making the NCAA Tournament this season.

“I think his teams embody who he is,” Barnes said. “Go back and think of him as a player and the way he played, what he wants from his players. There’s no doubt in my mind the job he’s doing at Missouri, he’ll continue to do a great job there.”

Martin doesn’t have to face the crowd at Thompson-Boling Arena just yet. Even so, Miami Heat guard Josh Richardson, who played for Martin at Tennessee, said facing the Vols will be a big deal.

“Tennessee means a lot to him,” Richardson said. “I know that, especially the relationships that we all made while we were there together. That’s definitely very important. But I think it’ll be a bigger game when he goes to Knoxville. I think the crowd will accept him, I hope he gets a nice ovation. I think he should, at least.”

A game in Knoxville will come, though not this season. When it does, Martin will just have a job to do.

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AP Sports Writers Tim Reynolds and Steve Megargee contributed to this report.

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More AP college basketball: http://collegebasketball.ap.org and http://www.twitter.com/AP_Top25

How Duke’s porous defense stacks up historically with past title winners

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For the last three years, Duke’s issues on the defensive side of the ball have been constant and pervasive.

Whether it’s their issues defending on the perimeter, or the problems they have dealing with ball-screens, or the freedom of movement rule changes inhibiting their ability to get out and pressure in the half court, the truth is that Mike Krzyzewski’s program has become synonymous with highlight reel offense and matador defense.

Since 2011, only two Duke teams have finished in the top 45 of KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric, and only one of those teams finished in the top 25. That was in 2015, when the Blue Devils went from being a mess on that end of the floor in January to the 37th-best defensive at the start of the NCAA tournament to national champions after playing defense at a level that would set records if it lasted for the entirety of a season.

The question this year is whether or not Duke will be capable of pulling off a similar turnaround in March, which made me wonder: How unique was Duke’s 2015 national title? Have we seen a team that struggled as much as they did defensively win a national title before? How many times have teams been able to fix their flaws by getting hot for six games in March?

I went back and looked at the offensive and defensive efficiency rankings for every Final Four team in the KenPom era, both after the tournament came to an end and prior to the start of the dance. The numbers that come before the start of the tournament are the most interesting to me, because teams making a run through the dance are going to see a significant chance in their rankings as they best good teams.

The numbers used in here are where each team ranks nationally. KenPom’s adjusted efficiency margins – what he uses to rank teams – cannot be compared across seasons. KenPom’s database dates back to the 2001-2002 season.

Here’s what I found:

1. NO CHAMPION HAS PLAYED WORSE DEFENSE THAN 2009 NORTH CAROLINA

North Carolina’s 2009 title team had the lowest defensive efficiency ranking of the KenPom era. They entered the NCAA tournament ranked 39th nationally, two spots worse than where the 2015 Duke team.

The 2014 UConn team that won the national title on the back of Shabazz Napier was the worst offensive team of the KenPom era to win a title, entering the tournament ranked 58th.  In fact, that 2014 UConn team was ranked lower than 2010 Butler, which is the only other team ranked outside the top 45 in offensive efficiency to get to the national title game.

Defense may win championships, but in college hoops, the average ranking for teams getting to the national title game – and for teams winning the national title – was higher in offensive efficiency than in defensive efficiency.

2. DUKE WOULD BE THE WORST DEFENSIVE TEAM TO GET TO THE TITLE GAME

Duke currently ranks 72nd in adjusted defensive efficiency. The only team to rank that low defensively was Butler in 2011, but that was also a weird year in the NCAA tournament. No. 3 seed UConn, No. 4 seed Kentucky, No. 8 seed Butler and No. 11 seed VCU all reached the Final Four; VCU made it after starting the tournament off in the First Four.

Butler got out of the first weekend that year thanks to what might be the weirdest finish to a game in NCAA tournament history. They handled good Wisconsin and Florida teams to get to the Final Four, where the Bulldogs faced off with VCU – by far the worst team to get to the Final Four in the KenPom era – before losing to UConn in the title game.

The only other team to rank outside of the top 40 defensively was Trey Burke’s 2013 Michigan team. They were 66th entering the tournament:

For comparison’s sake, UConn’s 2014 title is the only time a team outside of the top 50 offensively reached the title game. Only four other teams, all runner-ups, got to a title game ranked outside the top 25 in offensive efficiency, and the only other title team to rank outside the top 20 in offensive efficiency was UConn in 2011:

3. TO WIN A TITLE, YOU MUST BE ELITE AT SOMETHING OR HAVE A SUPERSTAR

Of the 16 national champions in the KenPom era, 75 percent of them ranked in the top 10 of either offensive or defensive efficiency entering the NCAA tournament.

The four that didn’t:

Syracuse was led by Carmelo Anthony in 2003. Florida has Joakim Noah, Al Horford and Corey Brewer in 2006 and went on to repeat with that same core of players the next year. UConn has Kemba Walker and Shabazz Napier in 2011 and 2014, respectively.

Player of the Year Power Rankings: Jalen Brunson is making up ground

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1. TRAE YOUNG, Oklahoma: Trae Young is the runaway favorite for National Player of the Year. At this point, if he doesn’t win the award, something crazy will have to happen.

So I’ll be using this space simply to take a look at my favorite part of the way that the players on this list play. Here is a look at the way that Young was able to create space to his threes off against TCU. Like Steph Curry, Young is short, doesn’t get all that much elevation when he shoots and a relatively low release-point. But quick feet, a super-quick release, ridiculous range and an innate ability to stay on-balance lets him do things like this:

(Some of these shots are insanely difficult.)

2. JALEN BRUNSON, Villanova: Brunson has added a new wrinkle to his game this season, as he is now being allowed to post up with more impunity. This creates a nightmare scenario for opponents. He is simply too good and too big for just about any point guard to stop on the block, but you cannot send an extra defender because double-teaming one of the best point guards in the country is just not doable, not when he is surrounded by four knock-down shooters.

Here’s a breakdown of why this makes Villanova that much more dangerous.

3. MARVIN BAGLEY III, Duke: The debate over whether or not Bagley is better than Ayton is going to rage all season long. Personally, I think that Ayton is a better prospect that Bagley largely because I think he has an easier fit defensively at the next level. Right now, however, Ayton is probably a marginally better defender while Bagley is a better offensive weapon.

But Bagley is clearly the leader in terms of the Player of the Year race for the simple fact that he has won games on his own by simply being absolutely dominant in the paint.

4. DEANDRE AYTON, Arizona: See above.

5. KEENAN EVANS, Texas Tech: For my money, four of the spots for first-team all-american are more or less locked in: Young, Brunson, Bagley and Ayton. There is a lot of season left to play, but right now those four have a solid lead on the field.

My favorite subplot of the race for the Big 12 title is that each of the four teams at the top of the conference are led by point guards that have a real shot at being first-team all-americans. Young, obviously, is going to be there. But the fifth-spot is race between Evans, Devonte’ Graham and Jevon Carter. A week ago I thought Carter was the pick. After seeing what Evans did down the stretch in a win over the Mountaineers over the weekend, I’m now leaning his way. But Graham, who has been terrific all season long, was good down the stretch in a win at West Virginia.

6. DEVONTE’ GRAHAM, Kansas
7. JEVON CARTER, West Virginia
8. TRA HOLDER, Arizona State
9. KEITA BATES-DIOP, Ohio State
10. TREVON BLUIETT, Xavier

ALSO CONSIDERED: MIKAL BRIDGES, Villanova; JOCK LANDALE, Saint Mary’s; DAKOTA MATHIAS, Purdue; YANTE MATEN, Georgia; LUKE MAYE, North Carolina; SHAKE MILTON, SMU; JORDAN MURPHY, Minnesota;  DESI RODRIGUEZ, Seton Hall; LANDRY SHAMET, Wichita State; KHYRI THOMAS, Creighton; ALLONZO TRIER, Arizona

VIDEO: Providence coach Ed Cooley always needs a mic

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On Friday night at DePaul, Providence head coach Ed Cooley allowed himself to be mic’d up for a TV broadcast, and things got interesting.

Around the 36 second mark, Cooley starts talking about … vampires and bats and dracula?

Then robbing banks and saying thank you?

I don’t know. Just watch.

VIDEO: Kansas celebrates in locker room after West Virginia win

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After coming from 16 points down to knock off No. 6 West Virginia in Morgantown on Monday night, Kansas had themselves some fun in the visitor’s locker room.

I’m not exactly sure what is happening here, but I do know Devonte’ Graham is having a hell of a time.

COLUMN: Kansas is back on top in the Big 12

My only question … where is Billy Preston’s shirt? He didn’t even play: