syracuse

Bracketology: Syracuse leads No. 1 seed contenders

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The bubble is much like a recent weather forecast for the Midwest or East Coast: unpredictable and generally less than welcoming.  So instead of debating the final few teams IN our OUT in today’s bracket, let’s look at the No. 1 seed contenders.  We have just over a month until Selection Sunday.

Syracuse, Arizona, Kansas, and Florida retain No. 1 seeds (same as Monday).  Syracuse is in the strongest position to hold its post – although road trips through Pittsburgh, Duke, and Virginia remain.  Arizona’s biggest question isn’t RPI numbers or quality wins, it’s a notable injury: how will the Wildcats play without Brandon Ashley?  He’s out for the season with a foot injury.  The Selection Committee will be watching how Arizona responds.  Kansas owns the top spot in the RPI and has played the nation’s top-rated schedule.  Will that offset five (or more) losses?  If the Jayhawks claim an outright Big 12 title and win the Big 12 tournament, history would suggest that, yes, KU would be a top seed given its profile.  Florida’s biggest advantage – and disadvantage – is its schedule.  Once again, the SEC isn’t particularly deep. With Missouri and Tennessee hovering around the bubble, Kentucky is the Gators’ top resume-builder.  That said, Florida is among the most talented teams in the nation when healthy.  It’s conceivable the Gators could enter the SEC Tournament with a record of 29-3.  That would be hard to ignore.

Here are some other contenders:

  • Michigan State – if the Spartans heal up and win the Big Ten, they will push for the top line.  Keep in mind, MSU has not lost a game when playing at full strength.
  • Wichita State – after winning at Indiana State, the Shockers will be favored to enter the Missouri Valley Tournament with a perfect record.  Although the MVC isn’t as strong as it’s been in recent years, one could easily argue that WSU has earned a No. 1 seed.
  • Villanova – the Wildcats are in the chase but may need help.  The new-look Big East doesn’t carry the same fortitude.  Other than a trip to Creighton, there’s not a truly high profile game left on Nova’s schedule.
  • San Diego State – Victories over Kansas and Creighton highlight a strong profile.  But much like the issues facing Villanova, is the Mountain West strong enough to carry the Aztecs to the top of the bracket?
  • Michigan – the Wolverines are right there with Michigan State in the battle for the Big 10 title.  An outright crown and trip to the Big 10 tourney title game would certainly place UM squarely in the No. 1 seed debate – depending on how the season plays out. If there’s a ding on the resume, it’s a couple of early losses when the team was still learning to play without Trey Burke.
  • Duke – it’s never wise to count out the Blue Devils. They will need some help, but a fair number of quality wins remain in the ACC.
  • Cincinnati – reaching the top line is probably a long shot for the Bearcats. But a two or three seed is there for the taking.  With some help, however, we could be looking at UC more closely a month from now.
  • Creighton – The Bluejays have a great win at Villanova.  Will that be enough to carry them?  The odds are against it.  Creighton played a good, but not great non-conference schedule, and some of the top competition on that schedule hasn’t performed as expected (Marquette, St. John’s, for example).  Of course, Creighton could win out and end the regular season 27-3.  That would turn a few heads.

UPDATED: February 7, 2014

Teams in CAPS represent the projected AUTOMATIC bid based on current standings with RPI as a tiebreaker for teams with the same number of losses. Exceptions are made for teams that use an abbreviation (UCLA, BYU, etc).

Several new bracketing principles were introduced after last year’s tournament. You can read them for yourself at http://www.ncaa.com. For example: teams from the same conference may now meet before a Regional final, even if fewer than eight teams are selected. The goal is to keep as many teams as possible on their actual seed line.

FIRST FOUR PAIRINGS – Dayton (First Round)

  • BYU vs. Arizona State | West Region
  • SMU vs. Georgetown | East Region
  • SOUTHERN vs. HIGH POINT | East Region
  • ROBERT MORRIS vs. CHATTANOOGA | Midwest Region

BRACKET PROJECTION …

EASTNew York                          WEST Anaheim
Buffalo San Diego
1) SYRACUSE 1) ARIZONA
16) SOUTHERN / HIGH POINT 16) UTAH VALLEY
8) VCU 8) Memphis
9) Xavier 9) Kansas State
San Diego Spokane
5) Oklahoma 5) Wisconsin
12) SMU / Georgetown 12) BYU / Arizona State
4) Kentucky 4) Iowa State
13) CANISIUS 13) MERCER
Milwaukee San Antonio
6) Louisville 6) Iowa
11) Tennessee 11) Missouri
3) MICHIGAN 3) CREIGHTON
14) BELMONT 14) UC-SANTA BARBARA
Buffalo San Antonio
7) Massachusetts 7) Connecticut
10) California 10) Florida State
2) Villanova 2) SAN DIEGO STATE
15) STONY BROOK 15) NC-CENTRAL
SOUTH – Memphis MIDWEST – Indianapolis
Orlando St. Louis
1) FLORIDA 1) KANSAS
16) WEBER STATE 16) CHATTANOOGA / ROB MORRIS
8) North Carolina 8) UCLA
9) Stanford 9) George Washington
Spokane Orlando
5) Texas 5) Ohio State
12) GREEN BAY 12) HARVARD
4) SAINT LOUIS 4) Virginia
13) DELAWARE 13) TOLEDO
Raleigh Raleigh
6) Oklahoma State 6) GONZAGA
11) Providence 11) SOUTHERN MISS
3) Duke 3) CINCINNATI
14) S.F. AUSTIN 14) GEORGIA STATE
St. Louis Milwaukee
7) New Mexico 7) Pittsburgh
10) Minnesota 10) Colorado
2) WICHITA STATE 2) Michigan State
15) AMERICAN 15) IPFW

NOTES on the BRACKET: Syracuse is the overall No. 1 seed followed by Arizona, Kansas, and Florida.

Last Five teams in (at large): Tennessee, Arizona State, SMU, Georgetown, BYU

First Five teams out (at large): LSU, Oregon, Indiana, Clemson, Richmond

Next five teams out (at large): Dayton, Ole Miss, Baylor, Louisiana Tech, Saint Mary’s

Breakdown by Conference …

Big 12 (7): Kansas, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Texas

Pac 12 (6): Arizona, Colorado, UCLA, California, Stanford, Arizona State

Big Ten (6): Michigan State, Michigan, Ohio State, Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota

ACC (6): Duke, Syracuse, North Carolina, Florida State, Pittsburgh, Virginia

American (5): Louisville, Memphis, Connecticut, Cincinnati, SMU

Big East (5): Creighton, Villanova, Xavier, Providence, Georgetown

SEC (4): Kentucky, Florida, Missouri, Tennessee

Atlantic 10 (4): Massachusetts, VCU, Saint Louis, Geo Washington

Mountain West (2): New Mexico, San Diego State

West Coast (2): Gonzaga, BYU

Missouri Valley (1): Wichita State

Conference Automatic Qualifiers … Southern Miss (C-USA), Belmont (Ohio Valley), Georgia State (Sun Belt), American (Patriot), IPFW (Summit), Green Bay (Horizon), Chattanooga (Southern), Utah Valley (WAC), Canisius (MAAC), Stephen F. Austin (Southland), Toledo (MAC), Mercer (A-Sun), Harvard (IVY), UC-Santa Barbara (Big West), Delaware (Colonial), Stony Brook (American East), Weber State (Big Sky), NC-Central (MEAC), UNC-Asheville (Big South), Robert Morris (NEC), Southern (SWAC)

No. 5 Xavier finds shooting touch in 74-57 blowout at Butler

Xavier head coach Chris Mack talks with James Farr (2) during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game against Butler, Saturday, Feb. 13, 2016, in Indianapolis. Xavier won 74-57. (AP Photo/Darron Cummings)
AP Photo/Darron Cummings
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INDIANAPOLIS (AP) No. 5 Xavier learned its lesson.

To keep winning, it must continue do the dirty work.

Four days after stumbling at Creighton, the Musketeers got back to basics and used a balanced offense and a smothering defense to run away from Butler 74-57 on Saturday.

“We played much better today and after about the first four or five minutes, we defended,” coach Chris Mack said. “Our shots were, in my opinion, really good ones because we got in the lane, we made the extra pass and I thought that was the difference.”

Whatever the explanation, the Musketeers (22-3, 10-3 Big East) certainly looked worthy of the highest ranking in school history.

After making a season-low 30 percent from the field and just 1 of 21 3-point attempts in Tuesday’s loss, Xavier rebounded by shooting 56.9 percent and going 9 of 18 beyond the arc. J.P. Macura led the way with 13 points while Edmond Sumner and Remy Abell each had 12.

But the biggest improvements showed up in other areas – defense, rebounding and effort. They allowed 36 points over the final 31 1/2 minutes.

“Everybody was boxing out and rebounding, and on the offensive end we have so much talent we could get whatever we wanted,” said Abell, who started his college career playing for the Indiana Hoosiers.

The difference was obvious.

Butler (17-8, 6-7) was held almost 25 points below its season average.

Kelan Martin, with 15 points, and Andrew Chrabascz, with 12, were the only players to score more than 10. And the top three scorers – Martin, Kellen Dunham and Roosevelt Jones – were a combined 11 of 39 from the field as the Bulldogs’ three-game winning streak came to an end.

Xavier crushed the Bulldogs so thoroughly that chants of “Let’s Go X” resounded throughout sold out Hinkle Fieldhouse over the final minutes.

“We didn’t have near the effort, the juice, the purpose defensively and we didn’t move the ball offensively and that was actually the case from the opening minute,” Butler coach Chris Holtmann said. “We mentioned that in the four-minute media and said that had to improve and when it doesn’t these things happen.”

Butler used a 9-0 first-half run to take a 21-13 lead midway through the first half.

Xavier answered with a 27-6 run that included four 3s and a three-point play in a 27-6 run to make it 40-27. The Bulldogs got as close as 47-39 early in the second half, which later became a seven-point deficit after a replay review gave Dunham a 3.

But the Bulldogs couldn’t get closer.

“You can go 1 for 21 one game, and then the next game it’s – I’m sure it was better,” Macura said. “That’s basketball.”

POINTERS

Xavier’s dominance showed up in two key stats on the box score. The Musketeers outscored Butler 36-14 in points off the bench and 36-18 in the paint despite having only two offensive rebounds. Xavier has won six of its last seven.

ON THE ROAD

Even the road has been kind to the Musketeers this season. They have won seven times in true road games, their highest season total since 2010-11. They have also won five Big East games on the road – more than they won in either of their first two seasons in the league and they have won 10 of the last 13 at Hinkle.

MOVING UP

Dunham continues his ascent on the Bulldogs’ career scoring list. After moving from 14th to sixth on the list in the first 23 games this season, Dunham moved passed Lynn Mitchem (1,798) for fifth and within one point of A.J. Graves (1,807) for fourth. Matt Howard is third (1,939) and the only 2,000-point scorers in school history are Chad Tucker (2,321) and Darrin Fitzgerald (2,019).

TIP-INS

Xavier: Former Indiana prep star Trevon Bluiett had 11 points and four rebounds and James Farr had 12 rebounds. … Each of Xavier’s 22 wins has come by at least seven points. … The Musketeers were the highest-ranked team to play at Hinkle Fieldhouse since No. 3 DePaul visited Feb. 23, 1981.

Butler: Shot 33.3 percent overall and was 8 of 22 on 3s. …. The Bulldogs only have three wins at home against Top 10 teams – No. 8 Gonzaga in January 2013, No. 3 Michigan in 1965-66 and No. 5 Tennessee in 1958-59. … Boston Celtics coach Brad Stevens and Indiana Gov. Mike Pence attended the game.

UP NEXT

Xavier hosts No. 20 Providence on Wednesday.

Butler hosts Creighton on Tuesday.

YOU MAKE THE CALL: Did Duke’s Grayson Allen travel on his game-winner vs. Virginia? (VIDEO)

Duke's Grayson Allen (3) and Marshall Plumlee (40) react during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game against Louisville in Durham, N.C., Monday, Feb. 8, 2016. Duke won 72-65. (AP Photo/Gerry Broome)
(AP Photo/Gerry Broome)
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Duke star Grayson Allen hit a game-winner on Saturday afternoon, a tough, driving layup that gave the Blue Devils a 63-62 win over No. 7 Virginia in Cameron Indoor Stadium:

The location of said game matters, because it appears that Allen traveled on the play.

Well, more than “appears”.

Allen did travel.

Twice actually. As you can see in this screen grab, Allen’s foot came down before he got the shot off:

Screen Shot 2016-02-13 at 6.44.34 PM

And if that wasn’t bad enough for UVA fans, Allen also quite clearly took three steps before releasing the shot:

There’s not really much to argue about here. Allen traveled. But before you get all riled up about the no-call, a few things to keep in mind:

  1. A player taking three steps on a drive is the call that referees miss more than anything, including block-charge decisions. It’s a very difficult call to see in real time, and if you’re going to make it in that situation — final seconds, in Cameron, on a Duke player — you better be damn sure that you’re right.
  2. The same can be said about Allen’s foot hitting the ground before he got the shot off. To figure out that the refs got it wrong, I had to take a screen grab from a slow-motion replay on an angle that none of the three referees had. It’s a split-second thing, and that’s something that’s rarely going to get called unless it’s obvious. Especially then.
  3. So yes, the referees blew the call. But I’m not sure there is a ref in the world that gets that one right.

And for what it’s worth, I’m not buying the whole Allen got fouled angle. That was great defense from Marial Shayok and an even better finish by Allen. It’s tough luck for the Cavs, but not really all that much different than winning a game like this.

Whatever the case may be, the result isn’t changing.

Duke got 25 points from Brandon Ingram, picked up their second win of the week over a ranked opponent and now head to their most difficult week of the season — at North Carolina and at Louisville — playing some of their best basketball.

In the last two games, the Blue Devils have given up 1.016 points-per-possession, a marked improvement over 1.081 PPP they were giving up entering the day.

Have the Blue Devils solved their issues defensively?