Kansas State v Kansas

Bracketology: Strong profile pushes Kansas to top line

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Since losing to San Diego State, the Kansas Jayhawks have put together a five-game surge that includes victories over its biggest competitors in the Big 12 conference – Oklahoma, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, and Baylor.  Two of those (Oklahoma, Iowa State) were on the road.  Add in victories over Duke and New Mexico in non-conference play, and KU has notched eight Top 50 RPI victories.  That’s two more than Syracuse, four more than Arizona, and three more than Michigan State – the other members of today’s No. 1 seed club.  It’s also worth noting that Kansas has played the nation’s toughest schedule and currently sits atop the RPI.   That’s a pretty strong profile (despite four losses – all to Top 25 RPI Teams), and the primary reason why the Jayhawks received the No. 4 slot on this week’s seed list (s-curve).  When evaluating KU’s overall body of work, it’s pretty strong.

We still have two months to go and several other teams could reach the No. 1 seed line by March.  Teams like Florida and Wichita State are building strong resumes, as is San Diego State.  And it’s too early to count out Iowa, Michigan, or Wisconsin from the Big Ten title chase.  The final contenders will be much more clear by mid-February.

On the flip side, January hasn’t been a good month for teams like Ohio State, Baylor, and North Carolina – or Georgetown for that matter; as the Hoyas are among the First Five OUT today.  Through the first third of conference play, the Buckeyes, Bears, and Tar Heels own a combined 4-12 record (in league play).  Some of that is due to scheduling and some of it has been inconsistent play.  Either way, it would be a good time for those squads to reverse course.  By the time we reach mid-February, a seriously sub-par conference record will not be endearing to the Selection Committee.

One of the best things about college basketball is that we never know what will happen.  Enjoy the hoops.

UPDATED: January 21, 2014

Teams in CAPS represent the projected AUTOMATIC bid based on current standings with RPI as a tiebreaker for teams with the same number of losses. Exceptions are made for teams that use an abbreviation (UCLA, BYU, etc).

Several new bracketing principles were introduced after last year’s tournament.  You can read them for yourself at http://www.ncaa.com.   For example: teams from the same conference may now meet before a Regional final, even if fewer than eight teams are selected.  The goal is to keep as many teams as possible on their actual seed line.

FIRST FOUR PAIRINGS – Dayton (First Round)

  • BYU vs. ArkansasMidwest Region
  • VCU vs. Providence South Region
  • SAVANNAH ST vs. UNC-ASHEVILLE East Region
  • SOUTHERN vs. CHATTANOOGA South Region

BRACKET PROJECTION …

WEST – Anaheim                            EAST New York                   
San Diego Buffalo
1) ARIZONA 1) SYRACUSE
16) SOUTH DAKOTA 16) SAVANNAH ST / NC-ASHEVILLE
8) Baylor 8) Xavier
9) GONZAGA 9) UCLA
San Diego Raleigh
5) Duke 5) Oklahoma
12) GREEN BAY 12) HARVARD
4) Kentucky 4) Michigan
13) S.F. AUSTIN 13) MANHATTAN
Spokane Spokane
6) Kansas State 6) Memphis
11) Stanford 11) Dayton
3) SAN DIEGO STATE 3) Iowa State
14) UC-IRVINE 14) GEORGIA STATE
Milwaukee Buffalo
7) Connecticut 7) Ohio State
10) Missouri 10) Florida State
2) Wisconsin 2) Villanova
15) UTAH VALLEY 15) BOSTON UNIVERSITY
SOUTH – Memphis MIDWEST – Indianapolis
St. Louis Milwaukee
1) KANSAS 1) MICHIGAN STATE
16) SOUTHERN / CHATTANOOGA 16) ROBERT MORRIS
8) Oregon 8) Colorado
9) Minnesota 9) New Mexico
Raleigh Orlando
5) Pittsburgh 5) CREIGHTON
12) SOUTHERN MISS 12) BYU / Arkansas
4) MASSACHUSETTS 4) CINCINNATI
13) TOLEDO 13) MERCER
San Antonio San Antonio
6) Louisville 6) Saint Louis
11) VCU / Providence 11) North Carolina
3) Iowa 3) Oklahoma State
14) DELAWARE 14) BELMONT
Orlando St. Louis
7) Virginia 7) California
10) Texas 10) George Washington
2) FLORIDA 2) WICHITA STATE
15) STONY BROOK 15) NO COLORADO

NOTES on the BRACKET: Arizona is the overall No. 1 seed followed by Syracuse, Michigan State, and Kansas.

Last Five teams in (at large): Dayton, VCU, Providence, Arkansas, BYU

First Five teams out (at large): SMU, Tennessee, Clemson, Boise State, Georgetown

Next five teams out (at large): Purdue, LSU, Saint Mary’s, Ole Miss, Illinois

Breakdown by Conference …

Big 12 (7): Kansas, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Texas

Big Ten (6): Michigan State, Michigan, Ohio State, Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota

Pac 12 (6): Arizona, Oregon, Colorado, UCLA, California, Stanford

ACC (6): Duke, Syracuse, North Carolina, Florida State, Pittsburgh, Virginia

Atlantic 10 (5): Massachusetts, VCU, Saint Louis, Dayton, Geo Washington

SEC (4): Kentucky, Florida, Missouri, Arkansas

American (4): Louisville, Memphis, Connecticut, Cincinnati

Big East (4): Creighton, Villanova, Xavier, Providence

Mountain West (2): New Mexico, San Diego State

West Coast (2): Gonzaga, BYU

Missouri Valley (1): Wichita State

Conference Automatic Qualifiers … Southern Miss (C-USA), Belmont (Ohio Valley), Georgia State (Sun Belt), Boston University (Patriot), South Dakota (Summit), Green Bay (Horizon), Chattanooga (Southern), Utah Valley (WAC), Manhattan (MAAC), Stephen F. Austin (Southland), Toledo (MAC), Mercer (A-Sun), Harvard (IVY), UC-Irvine (Big West), Delaware (Colonial), Stony Brook (American East), Northern Colorado (Big Sky), Savannah State (MEAC), UNC-Asheville (Big South), Robert Morris (NEC), Southern (SWAC)

Auburn junior guard Kareem Canty to turn pro

Auburn guard Kareem Canty (1) screams in pain after being fouled during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game, Saturday, Jan. 16, 2016, in Auburn, Ala. Auburn won 75-70.  (AP Photo/Brynn Anderson)
AP Photo/Brynn Anderson
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Auburn junior point guard Kareem Canty, the team’s leader in both points and assists, has missed the Tigers’ last two games as a result of a suspension handed down by head coach Bruce Pearl for a violation of team rules. Thursday night Canty announced via Twitter that he will be turning pro, ending his Auburn career with less than one full season of play.

In 21 games this season Canty averaged 18.3 points and 5.3 assists per contest, shooting 40.1 percent from the field and 36.1 percent from three. Given Auburn’s lack of perimeter depth Canty had ample opportunities to score from the point guard position, but he struggled in the four games following standout performances in wins over Kentucky and Alabama.

Auburn’s lost six straight since beating the Crimson Tide, most recently falling 71-45 at Tennessee Tuesday night. Without Canty, Bruce Pearl called upon TJ Lang and Bryce Brown as the perimeter starters in that game with Patrick Keim and New Williams playing a combined 33 minutes off the bench. They’ll continue to see those minutes moving forward.

As for next season, Auburn brings in four-star point guard Jared Harper and currently injured point guard Tahj Shamsid-Deen will be available as well.

Canty began his college career at Marshall, playing the 2013-14 season for the Thundering Herd before deciding to transfer. Canty committed to Auburn in mid-April of 2014, only to change his mind in favor of USF before making the switch back to Auburn.

Canty’s name wasn’t showing up in early draft projections, and making this decision while in the midst of a suspension likely won’t help matters when it comes to getting selected.

BUBBLE BANTER: All of tonight’s bubbly action in one place

Fran Dunphy
(AP Photo/Laurence Kesterson)
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This post will be updated as the games are completed.

You know what’s not going to be fun on Selection Sunday?

Trying to evaluate the profile that Temple (KenPom: 95, RPI: 69) eventually puts together.

The Owls are currently sitting tied for first place in the American at 9-3. They’ve swept UConn after coming from down 12 to beat the Huskies in Philly on Thursday. They’ve swept Cincinnati. They handed SMU their first loss of the season. They beat Tulsa. That’s four top 50 and six top 100 wins, which are good numbers in comparison to other bubble teams.

The problem?

They also lost at Memphis (yuck) and East Carolina (double yuck), have a non-conference strength of schedule that sits right around 200, lost to every good team they played out of conference and have thus far managed just six top 150 wins this season. The other issue? They’ve basically run out of quality opponents in the league. They do play at Tulsa (RPI: 50) and Houston (RPI: 91), which are basically must-wins at this point, and since every other opponent they play in the American has a sub-100 RPI, those are essentially can’t-lose games.

What that leaves us is the Villanova game. That will be played next week, and that’s as close to a must-win as you can get in mid-February.

WINNERS

  • Syracuse (KenPom: 39, RPI: 44): Syracuse landed their sixth top 50 win and eighth top 100 win of the season on Thursday. They also got word that the selection committee will factor in that Jim Boeheim missed time for the Orange. It may be time to take them off of this list, at least for the time being.

LOSERS

  • UConn (KenPom: 19, RPI: 46): On paper, UConn’s loss at Temple on Thursday isn’t all that bad. It’s a road loss to a top 100 opponent. Those happen in league play. Where it hurts is that the Owls have now not only swept UConn, but they did it by erasing a 12-point lead in the final five minutes. The Huskies fall to just 5-7 against the top 100 with just one top 50 win, albeit at Texas. With no bad losses and two shots left against SMU, UConn is still in decent shape.
  • Florida State (KenPom: 37, RPI: 38): The Seminoles missed a shot at landing a nice road win at Syracuse on Thursday. It doesn’t hurt their profile, and with three top 25, another top 50 and a top 100 opponent left on their schedule, there are still chances to play their way onto the bubble. The problem? All those games are losable as well.
  • VCU (KenPom: 32, RPI: 40): The Rams were on the wrong end of a brutal loss to UMass on Thursday night. It’s not the kind of loss that is going to eliminate VCU from the bubble conversation — not by any stretch — but one of the strengths of VCU’s résumé was that they didn’t have any bad losses to speak of. Now they have a loss to a sub-150 team. Their next four games are all potential landmines as well. Will Wade’s club would do well to avoid losing any of those four.

Games left to be played.

Arkansas-Little Rock (KenPom: 41, RPI: 63) at Louisiana Monroe, 8:00 p.m.
Northern Kentucky at Valparaiso (KenPom: 22, RPI: 48), 8:00 p.m.
No. 4 Iowa at Indiana (KenPom: 24, RPI: 51), 9:00 p.m.
No. 11 Oregon at Cal (KenPom: 44, RPI: 32), 9:00 p.m.
Washington State at Colorado (KenPom: 56, RPI: 29), 11:00 p.m.
Gonzaga (KenPom: 33, RPI: 66) at Portland, 11:00 p.m.
Pepperdine at Saint Mary’s (KenPom: 26, RPI: 52), 11:00 p.m.
Oregon State (KenPom: 81, RPI: 31) at Stanford (KenPom: 104, RPI: 71), 11:00 p.m.