Bracketology: Strong profile pushes Kansas to top line

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Since losing to San Diego State, the Kansas Jayhawks have put together a five-game surge that includes victories over its biggest competitors in the Big 12 conference – Oklahoma, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, and Baylor.  Two of those (Oklahoma, Iowa State) were on the road.  Add in victories over Duke and New Mexico in non-conference play, and KU has notched eight Top 50 RPI victories.  That’s two more than Syracuse, four more than Arizona, and three more than Michigan State – the other members of today’s No. 1 seed club.  It’s also worth noting that Kansas has played the nation’s toughest schedule and currently sits atop the RPI.   That’s a pretty strong profile (despite four losses – all to Top 25 RPI Teams), and the primary reason why the Jayhawks received the No. 4 slot on this week’s seed list (s-curve).  When evaluating KU’s overall body of work, it’s pretty strong.

We still have two months to go and several other teams could reach the No. 1 seed line by March.  Teams like Florida and Wichita State are building strong resumes, as is San Diego State.  And it’s too early to count out Iowa, Michigan, or Wisconsin from the Big Ten title chase.  The final contenders will be much more clear by mid-February.

On the flip side, January hasn’t been a good month for teams like Ohio State, Baylor, and North Carolina – or Georgetown for that matter; as the Hoyas are among the First Five OUT today.  Through the first third of conference play, the Buckeyes, Bears, and Tar Heels own a combined 4-12 record (in league play).  Some of that is due to scheduling and some of it has been inconsistent play.  Either way, it would be a good time for those squads to reverse course.  By the time we reach mid-February, a seriously sub-par conference record will not be endearing to the Selection Committee.

One of the best things about college basketball is that we never know what will happen.  Enjoy the hoops.

UPDATED: January 21, 2014

Teams in CAPS represent the projected AUTOMATIC bid based on current standings with RPI as a tiebreaker for teams with the same number of losses. Exceptions are made for teams that use an abbreviation (UCLA, BYU, etc).

Several new bracketing principles were introduced after last year’s tournament.  You can read them for yourself at http://www.ncaa.com.   For example: teams from the same conference may now meet before a Regional final, even if fewer than eight teams are selected.  The goal is to keep as many teams as possible on their actual seed line.

FIRST FOUR PAIRINGS – Dayton (First Round)

  • BYU vs. ArkansasMidwest Region
  • VCU vs. Providence South Region
  • SAVANNAH ST vs. UNC-ASHEVILLE East Region
  • SOUTHERN vs. CHATTANOOGA South Region

BRACKET PROJECTION …

WEST – Anaheim                            EAST New York                   
San Diego Buffalo
1) ARIZONA 1) SYRACUSE
16) SOUTH DAKOTA 16) SAVANNAH ST / NC-ASHEVILLE
8) Baylor 8) Xavier
9) GONZAGA 9) UCLA
San Diego Raleigh
5) Duke 5) Oklahoma
12) GREEN BAY 12) HARVARD
4) Kentucky 4) Michigan
13) S.F. AUSTIN 13) MANHATTAN
Spokane Spokane
6) Kansas State 6) Memphis
11) Stanford 11) Dayton
3) SAN DIEGO STATE 3) Iowa State
14) UC-IRVINE 14) GEORGIA STATE
Milwaukee Buffalo
7) Connecticut 7) Ohio State
10) Missouri 10) Florida State
2) Wisconsin 2) Villanova
15) UTAH VALLEY 15) BOSTON UNIVERSITY
SOUTH – Memphis MIDWEST – Indianapolis
St. Louis Milwaukee
1) KANSAS 1) MICHIGAN STATE
16) SOUTHERN / CHATTANOOGA 16) ROBERT MORRIS
8) Oregon 8) Colorado
9) Minnesota 9) New Mexico
Raleigh Orlando
5) Pittsburgh 5) CREIGHTON
12) SOUTHERN MISS 12) BYU / Arkansas
4) MASSACHUSETTS 4) CINCINNATI
13) TOLEDO 13) MERCER
San Antonio San Antonio
6) Louisville 6) Saint Louis
11) VCU / Providence 11) North Carolina
3) Iowa 3) Oklahoma State
14) DELAWARE 14) BELMONT
Orlando St. Louis
7) Virginia 7) California
10) Texas 10) George Washington
2) FLORIDA 2) WICHITA STATE
15) STONY BROOK 15) NO COLORADO

NOTES on the BRACKET: Arizona is the overall No. 1 seed followed by Syracuse, Michigan State, and Kansas.

Last Five teams in (at large): Dayton, VCU, Providence, Arkansas, BYU

First Five teams out (at large): SMU, Tennessee, Clemson, Boise State, Georgetown

Next five teams out (at large): Purdue, LSU, Saint Mary’s, Ole Miss, Illinois

Breakdown by Conference …

Big 12 (7): Kansas, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Texas

Big Ten (6): Michigan State, Michigan, Ohio State, Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota

Pac 12 (6): Arizona, Oregon, Colorado, UCLA, California, Stanford

ACC (6): Duke, Syracuse, North Carolina, Florida State, Pittsburgh, Virginia

Atlantic 10 (5): Massachusetts, VCU, Saint Louis, Dayton, Geo Washington

SEC (4): Kentucky, Florida, Missouri, Arkansas

American (4): Louisville, Memphis, Connecticut, Cincinnati

Big East (4): Creighton, Villanova, Xavier, Providence

Mountain West (2): New Mexico, San Diego State

West Coast (2): Gonzaga, BYU

Missouri Valley (1): Wichita State

Conference Automatic Qualifiers … Southern Miss (C-USA), Belmont (Ohio Valley), Georgia State (Sun Belt), Boston University (Patriot), South Dakota (Summit), Green Bay (Horizon), Chattanooga (Southern), Utah Valley (WAC), Manhattan (MAAC), Stephen F. Austin (Southland), Toledo (MAC), Mercer (A-Sun), Harvard (IVY), UC-Irvine (Big West), Delaware (Colonial), Stony Brook (American East), Northern Colorado (Big Sky), Savannah State (MEAC), UNC-Asheville (Big South), Robert Morris (NEC), Southern (SWAC)

Minnesota adds Vanderbilt transfer Payton Willis

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Minnesota has added some depth for the future.

The Golden Gophers received a pledge from Vanderbilt transfer Payton Willis over the weekend, giving him a guard with two seasons of eligibility remaining starting in 2019-20.

Willis will sit out the upcoming season under NCAA transfer rules.

The 6-foot-4 guard played a limited role in two seasons in Nashville, never averaging more than 18. 5 minutes or 5.2 points per game. He scored in double figures in three games as a sophomore.

Willis was a top-150 prospect in the Class of 2016 coming out of Fayetteville, Ark. with offers from the likes of Tulsa, Rice and Dayton. Vandy and Minnesota were his two high-major offers.

After being ranked in the top-15, Minnesota was beset by injury and suspensions last season as they limped to the finish line in a 15-17 season that featured losses in 12 of its last 13 games.

Richard Pitino still has two available scholarships for the 2018-19 campaign.

Report: Quade Green returning to Kentucky

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John Calipari just landed a critical recruit for 2018-19, and he was already on the roster.

Quade Green, who averaged 25 minutes per game last season, is returning to Kentucky for his sophomore season, his mother told the Lexington Herald-Leader on Monday.

Given that six Wildcat players have entered the draft (Kevin Knox, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Hami Diallo are signing with agents), getting the 6-foot point guard back for a second season is a massive deal for Calipari and Co. The Wildcats have always been at their best under Calipari with returning players as the cornerstones of the roster with talented one-and-dones providing the extra boost. Getting one such returner at the point guard position is even more critical.

Green, who came to Kentucky as a five-star recruit last year, averaged 9.3 points and 2.7 assists per game while shooting 45.1 percent from the field and a respectable 37.1 percent from 3-point range, an area where Kentucky continually needs help.

With Green back in the fold, Kentucky will now await the decisions of PJ Washington, Wenyen Gabriel and Jarred Vanderbilt, who are all going through the pre-draft process without hiring agents, which will potentially allow them to return to school and bolster a Kentucky roster has the look of a top-five team.

CBT Podcast: NBA Draft Early Entry Deadline: Winners, losers and who has the most on the line?

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The NBA Draft Early Entry Deadline came and went on Sunday night, meaning there are now roughly 60 college players that have signed with an agent and another 100 or so that have declared for the draft while retaining their college eligibility. Who were the winners? Who were the losers? Who has the most on the line? Sam Vecenie of the Game Theory podcast joined Rob Dauster to talk through all of it. The rundown:

OPEN: What do NBA teams value in players these days?

10:00: Villanova has more on the line during this testing the water process than anyone

19:00: Just how important was De’Andre Hunter’s decision to return to Virginia

25:25: Gonzaga getting Rui and Killian Tillie back makes them a title favorite

32:10: Nevada has a top ten season on the line with the Martin twins and Jordan Caroline

36:15: #RANTALERT – The decision to turn pro is so much more complicated than “is he a first round pick”

48:30: Rapid fire: Maryland, Kansas, Syracuse, Nebraska, Purdue and Michigan. What do they have on the line?

North Carolina’s Luke Maye declaring for NBA draft without hiring agent

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CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (AP) — North Carolina junior Luke Maye has declared for the NBA draft but isn’t hiring an agent.

The 6-foot-8 forward was a third-team Associated Press All-American after averaging 16.9 points and 10.1 rebounds. He was named the Atlantic Coast Conference’s most improved player after increasing his scoring average by 11.4 points from his sophomore to junior seasons.

Coach Roy Williams says in a statement that it’s ”a great opportunity” for Maye to work out for NBA teams and get feedback on what to improve in his game.

The deadline for college players to declare early for the draft was Sunday night. Players who don’t hire an agent can maintain their college eligibility as long as they withdraw by May 30, which is 10 days after the NBA draft combine.

Gonzaga star undergoes surgery on his shoulder

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The most important players for Gonzaga heading into the 2018-19 season will have an offseason dedicated to rehabilitation.

Josh Perkins, Gonzaga’s starting point guard, underwent surgery on Friday to repair a shoulder that he injured back in December. According to the Spokesman-Review, Perkins expects to be healthy and ready to play by the start of next season.

Perkins averaged 12.3 points and 5.3 assists during the 2017-18 season despite playing through those shoulder issues. After December’s win over Washington, a game in which Perkins left wincing in pain and clutching his shoulders, Perkins said “Just popped out a little bit. It’s not very strong right now, but everything is good.”

For my money, Perkins is the player that is going to be the x-factor for the Zags next season. They have a terrific front court with Rui Hachimura and Killian Tillie returning, and with the likes of Zach Norvell and Corey Kispert back, there is plenty of talent on the wings. Perkins, the senior point guard, is the blue that is going to be needed to hold it all together.

Gonzaga is a top five team heading into next year. They have national title aspirations. Perkins might end up being the guy that determines whether they live up to those goals or get knocked out of the field in the Sweet 16.