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CBT Weekly Roundtable: Who will be the next undefeated team to lose?

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In a new series here on College Basketball Talk, every Thursday we’re going to have a discussion about some of the hot topics in college basketball. Today’s installment? The 12 teams still left undefeated. Who is the first to lose? Can anyone actually make it to February without a loss? Will we ever see another undefeated team?

Rob Dauster: We are now more than a month into the season. Most of the teams have made it through a third of their regular season schedule, which means that it’s now far enough into the season to start discussing who is still undefeated.

After UConn’s loss to Stanford on Wednesday night, there are 12 teams without a blemish to their name: Arizona, Syracuse, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Villanova, Wichita State, Oregon, Iowa State, UMass, Missouri, Toledo and St. Mary’s.

So I’m going to put you on the spot, Raph: Who will be the nest team from this group to lose?

Raphielle Johnson: Alright. I looked at the schedules of the 12 remaining undefeated teams and two have match-ups that will test them this weekend. UMass visits Florida State, and Missouri takes on rival Illinois in St. Louis. Of these two I think the Minutemen are the ones who go down, because for as athletic as UMass is I think Florida State can match them. Guys like Okaro White and Robert Gilchrist can compete with the likes of Raphiael Putney, Cady Lalanne and Sampson Carter in the front court. Obviously the key player for Florida State to corral is Chaz Williams, and I believe the Seminoles have what it takes to keep him from going wild. FSU ranks 6th nationally in two-point percentage defense, and as long as they challenge UMass’ looks on the outside I think they win.

Who’s your pick?

RD: I think you’re right that Florida State can give UMass a fight. The Seminoles have the size inside to deal with some of Derek Kellogg’s big men, and Leonard Hamilton is nothing if not a good defensive coach.

Here’s one for you: BYU over Oregon. Look, I’m not sold on the Cougars being anything special. They’re essentially a four-man team and they don’t play any defense. But I think they actually matchup fairly well with Oregon, they like to run like Oregon does and on the nights when BYU shoots the ball well, they’re going to be able to compete with anyone in the country. They just have to hope that the Stanford game wasn’t the only time this season that Tyler Haws and Matt Carlino both go crazy.

I think the more interesting discussion is actually who will remain undefeated for the longest, and I think that award will fall into the hands of Wichita State. The Valley is way down this year, and the Shockers are better than they were when they went to the Final Four. They’ll enter every game as the favorite the rest of the way. No one is going to make it out of the Valley unscathed, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Wichita State made it until February 5th without a loss.

RJ: Wichita State is a good choice. Thought about Toledo, but for as much as I like Rian Pearson, Justin Drummond and Julius “Juice” Brown I can’t pick the Rockets to win at Kansas on December 30. But that is a very good team, and they’re the favorites to win the MAC at this point in time.

But back to the Shockers. I certainly understand where many are coming from when stating why they’ve got a shot at being the last undefeated team remaining, but I wouldn’t sleep on that Missouri State game on January 11. Paul Lusk’s Bears are off to an 8-2 start with Jamar Gulley leading the way, and you don’t just waltz into JQH Arena and leave with a win. That being said, Gregg Marshall’s got a very good basketball team. Ron Baker, before his ankle injury slowed him down some, was in the running for “180” mention and from an offensive standpoint he may be one of the most improved players in the country. Add in the talented Cleanthony Early, a defensive stopper in Tekele Cotton and the maturing Fred Van Vleet and you’ve got some guys capable of making another deep run in the NCAA tournament.

But I’ll take another team to answer this question: Syracuse. Yes they’ve got a big home game against No. 8 Villanova on the 28th (the Wildcats are also undefeated), but I really think Jim Boeheim’s team has the ability to get to that home game against Duke on February 1 without a blemish. While the ACC has been good (but not up to the expectations of some) I don’t think it represents this lethal gauntlet that the Orange will immediately struggle with. Tyler Ennis and Trevor Cooney continue to improve, as does Dajuan Coleman, and we already know how good that Fair/Grant forward combo is. With the talent, weapons and depth on that roster, I’ll take Syracuse regardless of the fact that they’re in the ACC.

RD: I’ll be honest: I don’t like much of this ‘undefeated’ talk, especially when it comes so early in the season. Nobody is going to go undefeated this season. There probably won’t be anyone going undefeated in any season, ever again. Unless the NBA decides, for some reason, that every athlete must stay in school for two or three years, I just think that it is too hard for teams built around talented freshmen to win early and often enough to go an entire year without a blemish.

Let’s call it like it is: the only teams that are going to be good enough to go undefeated are teams that are freshmen-heavy. That’s just the way it is in this day and age. There aren’t going to be juniors that are good enough to build a team that talented around because if they’re that good, they are probably entering their second season in the NBA by then.

If the last two years have taught us anything, it’s that the Kentucky team with Anthony Davis and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist were A) a special, once-in-a-decade (if not more) kind of team that was built are superstar freshmen as role players, and B) not replicable. That group came as close as we’ve seen anyone get to being undefeated.

It happening.

So lemme ask you this, Raph: Come February, is there anyone in the country that still is without a loss?

RJ: No, and one reason why is what you mentioned above. And another reason, for me at least, is fatigue. Not so much for physical reasons but rather mentally. Why are we discussing it? Because it’s a simple and convenient topic to talk about. And the deeper into a season that a team gets without a loss the more they hear about it and the more it weighs on them, I’d imagine.

Does that mean a loss is a good thing? Hell no, and I hate when people try to spin such results that way. If you’re a mature team you can learn from wins as well. If this were the days prior to the Internet, and sports media weren’t so prevalent, I’d give a team like Syracuse a fair shot at doing it. But I think external “pressure” can be too much to overcome.

The goal is to get better as the season rolls on, with the goal of playing your best ball in March (and hopefully early April). As long as you do that, whatever else comes along is gravy.

No. 5 Xavier finds shooting touch in 74-57 blowout at Butler

Xavier head coach Chris Mack talks with James Farr (2) during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game against Butler, Saturday, Feb. 13, 2016, in Indianapolis. Xavier won 74-57. (AP Photo/Darron Cummings)
AP Photo/Darron Cummings
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INDIANAPOLIS (AP) No. 5 Xavier learned its lesson.

To keep winning, it must continue do the dirty work.

Four days after stumbling at Creighton, the Musketeers got back to basics and used a balanced offense and a smothering defense to run away from Butler 74-57 on Saturday.

“We played much better today and after about the first four or five minutes, we defended,” coach Chris Mack said. “Our shots were, in my opinion, really good ones because we got in the lane, we made the extra pass and I thought that was the difference.”

Whatever the explanation, the Musketeers (22-3, 10-3 Big East) certainly looked worthy of the highest ranking in school history.

After making a season-low 30 percent from the field and just 1 of 21 3-point attempts in Tuesday’s loss, Xavier rebounded by shooting 56.9 percent and going 9 of 18 beyond the arc. J.P. Macura led the way with 13 points while Edmond Sumner and Remy Abell each had 12.

But the biggest improvements showed up in other areas – defense, rebounding and effort. They allowed 36 points over the final 31 1/2 minutes.

“Everybody was boxing out and rebounding, and on the offensive end we have so much talent we could get whatever we wanted,” said Abell, who started his college career playing for the Indiana Hoosiers.

The difference was obvious.

Butler (17-8, 6-7) was held almost 25 points below its season average.

Kelan Martin, with 15 points, and Andrew Chrabascz, with 12, were the only players to score more than 10. And the top three scorers – Martin, Kellen Dunham and Roosevelt Jones – were a combined 11 of 39 from the field as the Bulldogs’ three-game winning streak came to an end.

Xavier crushed the Bulldogs so thoroughly that chants of “Let’s Go X” resounded throughout sold out Hinkle Fieldhouse over the final minutes.

“We didn’t have near the effort, the juice, the purpose defensively and we didn’t move the ball offensively and that was actually the case from the opening minute,” Butler coach Chris Holtmann said. “We mentioned that in the four-minute media and said that had to improve and when it doesn’t these things happen.”

Butler used a 9-0 first-half run to take a 21-13 lead midway through the first half.

Xavier answered with a 27-6 run that included four 3s and a three-point play in a 27-6 run to make it 40-27. The Bulldogs got as close as 47-39 early in the second half, which later became a seven-point deficit after a replay review gave Dunham a 3.

But the Bulldogs couldn’t get closer.

“You can go 1 for 21 one game, and then the next game it’s – I’m sure it was better,” Macura said. “That’s basketball.”

POINTERS

Xavier’s dominance showed up in two key stats on the box score. The Musketeers outscored Butler 36-14 in points off the bench and 36-18 in the paint despite having only two offensive rebounds. Xavier has won six of its last seven.

ON THE ROAD

Even the road has been kind to the Musketeers this season. They have won seven times in true road games, their highest season total since 2010-11. They have also won five Big East games on the road – more than they won in either of their first two seasons in the league and they have won 10 of the last 13 at Hinkle.

MOVING UP

Dunham continues his ascent on the Bulldogs’ career scoring list. After moving from 14th to sixth on the list in the first 23 games this season, Dunham moved passed Lynn Mitchem (1,798) for fifth and within one point of A.J. Graves (1,807) for fourth. Matt Howard is third (1,939) and the only 2,000-point scorers in school history are Chad Tucker (2,321) and Darrin Fitzgerald (2,019).

TIP-INS

Xavier: Former Indiana prep star Trevon Bluiett had 11 points and four rebounds and James Farr had 12 rebounds. … Each of Xavier’s 22 wins has come by at least seven points. … The Musketeers were the highest-ranked team to play at Hinkle Fieldhouse since No. 3 DePaul visited Feb. 23, 1981.

Butler: Shot 33.3 percent overall and was 8 of 22 on 3s. …. The Bulldogs only have three wins at home against Top 10 teams – No. 8 Gonzaga in January 2013, No. 3 Michigan in 1965-66 and No. 5 Tennessee in 1958-59. … Boston Celtics coach Brad Stevens and Indiana Gov. Mike Pence attended the game.

UP NEXT

Xavier hosts No. 20 Providence on Wednesday.

Butler hosts Creighton on Tuesday.

YOU MAKE THE CALL: Did Duke’s Grayson Allen travel on his game-winner vs. Virginia? (VIDEO)

Duke's Grayson Allen (3) and Marshall Plumlee (40) react during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game against Louisville in Durham, N.C., Monday, Feb. 8, 2016. Duke won 72-65. (AP Photo/Gerry Broome)
(AP Photo/Gerry Broome)
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Duke star Grayson Allen hit a game-winner on Saturday afternoon, a tough, driving layup that gave the Blue Devils a 63-62 win over No. 7 Virginia in Cameron Indoor Stadium:

The location of said game matters, because it appears that Allen traveled on the play.

Well, more than “appears”.

Allen did travel.

Twice actually. As you can see in this screen grab, Allen’s foot came down before he got the shot off:

Screen Shot 2016-02-13 at 6.44.34 PM

And if that wasn’t bad enough for UVA fans, Allen also quite clearly took three steps before releasing the shot:

There’s not really much to argue about here. Allen traveled. But before you get all riled up about the no-call, a few things to keep in mind:

  1. A player taking three steps on a drive is the call that referees miss more than anything, including block-charge decisions. It’s a very difficult call to see in real time, and if you’re going to make it in that situation — final seconds, in Cameron, on a Duke player — you better be damn sure that you’re right.
  2. The same can be said about Allen’s foot hitting the ground before he got the shot off. To figure out that the refs got it wrong, I had to take a screen grab from a slow-motion replay on an angle that none of the three referees had. It’s a split-second thing, and that’s something that’s rarely going to get called unless it’s obvious. Especially then.
  3. So yes, the referees blew the call. But I’m not sure there is a ref in the world that gets that one right.

And for what it’s worth, I’m not buying the whole Allen got fouled angle. That was great defense from Marial Shayok and an even better finish by Allen. It’s tough luck for the Cavs, but not really all that much different than winning a game like this.

Whatever the case may be, the result isn’t changing.

Duke got 25 points from Brandon Ingram, picked up their second win of the week over a ranked opponent and now head to their most difficult week of the season — at North Carolina and at Louisville — playing some of their best basketball.

In the last two games, the Blue Devils have given up 1.016 points-per-possession, a marked improvement over 1.081 PPP they were giving up entering the day.

Have the Blue Devils solved their issues defensively?