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The Chase for 180: Jahii Carson’s improved jump shot

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Who is the best shooter in the country?

It’s a tough question to answer, isn’t it? Does being a “shooter” simply mean merely being a high-level marksman from beyond the arc? Can a player who thrives in the mid-range but rarely ventures out into three-point land be eligible? How heavily should we be valuing stats like efficiency and effective field goal percentage when taking all of this into account?

One number that we like to use is “180″. How do you become a 180 shooter? By shooting 50% or better from the field overall, 40% or better from three and at least 90% from the charity stripe. From this point forward we’ll track this until the end of the regular season, providing weekly updates as well as a look into how some of the nation’s best find (and connect on) their quality looks.

There’s no denying the fact that Arizona State point guard Jahii Carson was one of the nation’s best newcomers in 2012-13. After having to sit out the season prior Carson hit the ground running, posting averages of 18.5 points, 5.1 assists and 3.7 rebounds per game. Those numbers and the fact that the Sun Devils increased their win total by 12 (from ten wins in 2011-12 to 22) and scored nearly 11 points more per game led to Carson winning a share of the Pac-12’s Freshman of the Year award.

So what’s there to do for an encore? For starters, shoot at a better clip from beyond the arc and from the field overall. Through ten games Carson’s shot 51% from the field, an increase of more than three percentage points from a season ago, and his three-point percentage (52.9%) has jumped 20.9%. And for those into tempo-neutral numbers (per kenpom.com) Carson’s effective field goal (from 50.7% to 57.0%) and true shooting (from 55.2% to 59.6%) percentages have improved as well.

The presence of a Jermaine Marshall on the perimeter has certainly helped matters, and Carson’s also found a way to earn even more scoring opportunities at the rim. According to hoop-math.com Carson’s attempted nearly 52% of his shots at the rim, shooting 57.7% in such situations. While his field goal percentage at the rim in 2012-13 wasn’t far off (56.9%), just 42.8% of Carson’s shots were attempted in this area of the floor.

Carson’s three-point percentage improvement will be the stat that receives the most attention, because it’s rare for a player who’s responsible for the amount of offensive production asked of Carson to make a nearly 21-percent improvement from one year to the next. Carson’s always had the speed to beat defenders off the dribble, resulting in many choosing to sag off and force him to prove that he can consistently knock down perimeter shots. Through ten games it’s obvious that he’s improved in this area.

THE TOP TEN (Note: Players much be eligible to be ranked in FG%, 3PT% and FT%. And here’s a glossary that includes the stats you’ll see used in these posts.)

1) Austin Tillotson (Colgate)
66.7% FG, 70.6% 3PT, 90.0% FT = 227.3
Shot%: 19.0%
eFG%: 75.0%
True shooting%: 76.6%

2) Austin Hamilton (Elon)
61.2%, 61.1%, 77.3% = 199.6
Shot%: 16.0%
eFG%: 72.4%
True shooting%: 74.0%

3) Michael Frazier II (Florida)
51.4%, 52.2%, 91.7% = 195.3
Shot%: 20.4%
eFG%: 67.6%
True shooting%: 69.6%

4) Kevin Pangos (Gonzaga)
49.6%, 50.0%, 92.7% = 192.3
Shot%: 24.7%
eFG%: 64.2%
True shooting%: 68.8%

5) Will Neighbour (UALR)
59.7%, 52.9%, 77.8% = 190.4
Shot%: 22.0%
eFG%: 64.2%
True shooting%: 68.9%

6) Shabazz Napier (UConn)
50.0%, 57.1%, 78.0% = 185.1
Shot%: 22.0%
eFG%: 58.9%
True shooting%: 63.0%

7) Doug McDermott (Creighton)
50.3%, 45.3%, 86.7% = 182.3
Shot%: 36.8%
eFG%: 58.3%
True shooting%: 63.5%

8) Jalen Jackson (Central Arkansas)
52.7%, 51.9%, 77.8% = 182.4
Shot %: 23.7%
eFG%: 65.5%
True shooting%: 67.7%

9) Jahii Carson (Arizona State)
51.0%, 52.9%, 75.0% = 178.9
Shot%: 30.8%
eFG%: 57.0%
True shooting%: 59.6%

10) Zach LaVine (UCLA)
60.5%, 50.0%, 66.7% = 177.2
Shot%: 23.6%
eFG%: 72.8%
True shooting%: 72.6%

Five close-range shooters (no three-pointers attempted)

1) Sim Bhullar (New Mexico State)
70.9% FG, 1.89 PPS

2) Jon Smith (Ohio)
70.5% FG, 1.64 PPS

3) Kourtney Roberson (Texas A&M)
69.7%, 1.82 PPS

4) Marshall Bjorklund (North Dakota State)
69.7%, 1.66 PPS

5) Jordan Threloff (Northern Illinois)
69.4%, 1.92 PPS

Previous Installments
November 11
December 4

Cyclones add big man for 2017

LOUISVILLE, KY - MARCH 15:  Head coach Steve Prohm of the Murray State Racers shouts from the sidelines against the Colorado State Rams  during the second round of the 2012 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at KFC YUM! Center on March 15, 2012 in Louisville, Kentucky.  (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
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Iowa State secured its first commitment Wednesday of what will be a pivotal class of forwards in 2017.

KeyShawn Faezell of Mississippi committed to Steve Prohm and the Cyclones, he announced Wednesday.

“After praying to God to lead me in the right path and talking with my dad,” Faezell wrote, “I’ve decided to further my education and basketball career under coach Prohm at Iowa State University.”

Faezell, a 6-foot-9 consensus top-150 forward in the 2017 class, joins wing Terrence Lewis as the first two members of a class that figures to number at least six for ISU. The addition of Faezell is key because ISU will be losing three members of its frontcourt it will likely be leaning on heavily in 2015-16 in Deonte Burton, Merrill Holden and Darrell Bowie. A 2016 big man, Cameron Lard, has also yet to enroll in classes this fall due to academic issues, making Faezell’s commitment even more important should Lard be unable to get clearance.

“They need some people to come in and compete,” Feazell told the Ames Tribune. “I think I fit in the program.”

Prohm’s teams dating back to his Murray State days have always been guard-oriented and guard-heavy, but beginning to stack the roster with quality big men will be key as he looks to continue the Cyclones’ success in the Big 12, which includes a school-record five-straight NCAA tournament appearances.

BYU adds commit for 2019

Dave Rose
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BYU added a commitment from a high school senior this week, but the Cougars won’t be seeing him on campus until 2019.

Kolby Lee, a 6-foot-9 forward from Idaho, pledged to BYU on Monday evening, but won’t suit up until after serving a two-year mission for the Church of Latter Day Saints, according to the Deseret News.

“I had a great feeling about BYU, and I prayed about it,” Lee told the paper. “I just feel like it’s the right fit for me. It just seems right. It feels right.”

Lee chose BYU over offers from  Utah State, Boise State and UC Davis. He was rated a four-star prospect by ESPN and three by Scout.

His decision to forego immediately joining BYU certainly isn’t a new wrinkle for the Cougars, who routinely see their players either delay their initial eligibility or pause it mid-career while serving on missions.

Self pays freshman Jackson a major compliment

Josh Jackson, from Napa, Calif.,, dunks over Nancy Mulkey, from Cypress, Texas, as he competes in the slam dunk contest during the McDonald's All-American Jam Fest, Monday, March 28, 2016, in Chicago. (AP Photo/Matt Marton)
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Freshman phenom production under Bill Self has been something of a contentious topic. Many fault the coach, who has won one national title and 12-straight Big 12 championships, for not developing one-and-done talent to their fullest potential during their single-season stays in Lawrence. Cliff Alexander and Cheick Diallo are Exhibit 1-A and 1-B for this argument in recent years.

Whatever outside criticism there is (Andrew Wiggins did go No. 1 overall just 2 years ago, after all), Self isn’t shying away from hyping the latest freshman with big expectations to come to KU. When asked who the greatest athlete of all-time is at the school’s annual Tradition Night last week, Self had a simple, if tongue-and-cheek, response.

“I’ll say Josh Jackson,” Self said of the the 6-foot-8 shooting guard ranked No. 1 in his class, according to Lawrence Journal-World.

With others answering with the likes of Michael Jordan and Muhammed Ali, it’s pretty fair to say Self was playing to the crowd with the answer, but it’s still telling that he was willing to deliver such a sound bite, even if it was before a welcoming audience. Self didn’t try to seriously depress expectations for Wiggins, a player Jackson is often compared to, and it looks like he won’t for Jackson as well.

Jackson, though, won’t have the burden Wiggins had as there’s one of the country’s best backcourts in Frank Mason II and Devonte Graham to help shoulder the workload for the Jayhawks.

 

ACC non-commital on HB2 stance

John Swofford
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With North Carolina unwilling to rescind their controversial so-called bathroom bill, the NBA has withdrawn its All-Star Game from the state this year and numerous high-profile music acts have canceled performances as a result.

The ACC is declining to join them with a hard-line, or really any, position.

“We don’t want to damage our league with any premature decisions,” commissioner John Swofford said on The David Glenn Show. “We’ll just see how it plays out.”

The ACC, of course, has quite the presence in the state with North Carolina, N.C. State, Duke and Wake Forest all in the Tar Heel State. Swofford’s comments are sure to draw the interest of the LGBT community, which has roundly been critical of the bill, which requires people to use the bathroom which corresponds to the gender on their birth certificate, and has recently been active in college athletics, opposing the Big 12’s potential inclusion of BYU in its expansion plans over concerns of the Church of Latter Day Saints school’s honor code.

North Carolina’s bill has also drawn the eye of the NCAA, which is requiring potential championship sights to provide information on local anti-discrimination laws.

One of the loudest voices in the ACC, Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski, has come out against the law.

“It’s an embarrassing bill,” Coach K said last month.

The Champions Classic renewed through 2019

LAWRENCE, KS - FEBRUARY 27: Bill Self head coach of the Kansas Jayhawks claps for his team as they celebrate winning the Big 12 Conference Championship after they defeated Texas Tech Red Raiders 67-58 at Allen Fieldhouse on February 27, 2016 in Lawrence, Kansas. With the win, Kansas clinched its 12th straight conference championship. (Photo by Ed Zurga/Getty Images)
Ed Zurga/Getty Images
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The Champions Classic is back, baby!!!

On Wednesday, the four schools that participate in the event — Kentucky, Duke, Kansas and Michigan State — announced that they have signed deals to extend the life of the doubleheader for another three years.

This is terrific news. The Champions Classic is always the best early-season event of the season, an annual double-header that always ends up putting together two of the best non-conference games in packed NBA arenas. This year, it features Duke, the consensus preseason No. 1 team in the country, squaring off with Kansas, who is a consensus top three team with the No. 1 freshman in the class, Josh Jackson, on their roster, in one game.

The other game? Kentucky, the third consensus top three team nationally, going up against Tom Izzo and Michigan State, who will be, at worst, a top 15 team in the preseason polls.

So yeah, we’re going to get a pair of sensational basketball games in Madison Square Garden on Nov. 15th. MSG also just so happens to be the best arena to watch a great neutral site basketball game.

It’s going to be awesome.

There’s only one possible way to make it better: turn it into a two-day event, with the winners squaring off for the Champions Classic title the following night.

Make it happen.

Anyway, here’s the schedule:

Nov. 14, 2017 (United Center, Chicago)
Kansas vs. Kentucky
Duke vs. Michigan State

Nov. 13, 2018 (Bankers Life Fieldhouse, Indianapolis)
Michigan State vs. Kansas
Duke vs. Kentucky

Nov. 12, 2019 (Madison Square Garden, New York)
Kansas vs. Duke
Michigan State vs. Kentucky