The Chase for 180: Jahii Carson’s improved jump shot

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Who is the best shooter in the country?

It’s a tough question to answer, isn’t it? Does being a “shooter” simply mean merely being a high-level marksman from beyond the arc? Can a player who thrives in the mid-range but rarely ventures out into three-point land be eligible? How heavily should we be valuing stats like efficiency and effective field goal percentage when taking all of this into account?

One number that we like to use is “180″. How do you become a 180 shooter? By shooting 50% or better from the field overall, 40% or better from three and at least 90% from the charity stripe. From this point forward we’ll track this until the end of the regular season, providing weekly updates as well as a look into how some of the nation’s best find (and connect on) their quality looks.

There’s no denying the fact that Arizona State point guard Jahii Carson was one of the nation’s best newcomers in 2012-13. After having to sit out the season prior Carson hit the ground running, posting averages of 18.5 points, 5.1 assists and 3.7 rebounds per game. Those numbers and the fact that the Sun Devils increased their win total by 12 (from ten wins in 2011-12 to 22) and scored nearly 11 points more per game led to Carson winning a share of the Pac-12’s Freshman of the Year award.

So what’s there to do for an encore? For starters, shoot at a better clip from beyond the arc and from the field overall. Through ten games Carson’s shot 51% from the field, an increase of more than three percentage points from a season ago, and his three-point percentage (52.9%) has jumped 20.9%. And for those into tempo-neutral numbers (per kenpom.com) Carson’s effective field goal (from 50.7% to 57.0%) and true shooting (from 55.2% to 59.6%) percentages have improved as well.

The presence of a Jermaine Marshall on the perimeter has certainly helped matters, and Carson’s also found a way to earn even more scoring opportunities at the rim. According to hoop-math.com Carson’s attempted nearly 52% of his shots at the rim, shooting 57.7% in such situations. While his field goal percentage at the rim in 2012-13 wasn’t far off (56.9%), just 42.8% of Carson’s shots were attempted in this area of the floor.

Carson’s three-point percentage improvement will be the stat that receives the most attention, because it’s rare for a player who’s responsible for the amount of offensive production asked of Carson to make a nearly 21-percent improvement from one year to the next. Carson’s always had the speed to beat defenders off the dribble, resulting in many choosing to sag off and force him to prove that he can consistently knock down perimeter shots. Through ten games it’s obvious that he’s improved in this area.

THE TOP TEN (Note: Players much be eligible to be ranked in FG%, 3PT% and FT%. And here’s a glossary that includes the stats you’ll see used in these posts.)

1) Austin Tillotson (Colgate)
66.7% FG, 70.6% 3PT, 90.0% FT = 227.3
Shot%: 19.0%
eFG%: 75.0%
True shooting%: 76.6%

2) Austin Hamilton (Elon)
61.2%, 61.1%, 77.3% = 199.6
Shot%: 16.0%
eFG%: 72.4%
True shooting%: 74.0%

3) Michael Frazier II (Florida)
51.4%, 52.2%, 91.7% = 195.3
Shot%: 20.4%
eFG%: 67.6%
True shooting%: 69.6%

4) Kevin Pangos (Gonzaga)
49.6%, 50.0%, 92.7% = 192.3
Shot%: 24.7%
eFG%: 64.2%
True shooting%: 68.8%

5) Will Neighbour (UALR)
59.7%, 52.9%, 77.8% = 190.4
Shot%: 22.0%
eFG%: 64.2%
True shooting%: 68.9%

6) Shabazz Napier (UConn)
50.0%, 57.1%, 78.0% = 185.1
Shot%: 22.0%
eFG%: 58.9%
True shooting%: 63.0%

7) Doug McDermott (Creighton)
50.3%, 45.3%, 86.7% = 182.3
Shot%: 36.8%
eFG%: 58.3%
True shooting%: 63.5%

8) Jalen Jackson (Central Arkansas)
52.7%, 51.9%, 77.8% = 182.4
Shot %: 23.7%
eFG%: 65.5%
True shooting%: 67.7%

9) Jahii Carson (Arizona State)
51.0%, 52.9%, 75.0% = 178.9
Shot%: 30.8%
eFG%: 57.0%
True shooting%: 59.6%

10) Zach LaVine (UCLA)
60.5%, 50.0%, 66.7% = 177.2
Shot%: 23.6%
eFG%: 72.8%
True shooting%: 72.6%

Five close-range shooters (no three-pointers attempted)

1) Sim Bhullar (New Mexico State)
70.9% FG, 1.89 PPS

2) Jon Smith (Ohio)
70.5% FG, 1.64 PPS

3) Kourtney Roberson (Texas A&M)
69.7%, 1.82 PPS

4) Marshall Bjorklund (North Dakota State)
69.7%, 1.66 PPS

5) Jordan Threloff (Northern Illinois)
69.4%, 1.92 PPS

Previous Installments
November 11
December 4

NCAA denies extra-year request by NC State guard Henderson

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RALEIGH, N.C. (AP) — The NCAA has denied North Carolina State guard Terry Henderson’s request for another year of eligibility.

Henderson announced the decision Friday in a statement issued by the school.

The Raleigh native played two seasons at West Virginia before transferring to N.C. State and redshirting in 2014-15. He played for only 7 minutes of the following season before suffering a season-ending ankle injury.

As a redshirt senior in 2016-17, he was the team’s second-leading scorer at 13.8 points per game and made a team-best 78 3-pointers.

Henderson called it “an honor and privilege” to play in his hometown.

SMU gets transfer in Georgetown’s Akoy Agau

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SMU pulled in a frontcourt player in Georgetown transfer Akoy Agau, a source confirmed to NBCSports.com. Agau is immediately eligible for next season as a graduate transfer.

The 6-foot-8 Agau started his career at Louisville before transferring to Georgetown after one season. Spending two seasons with the Hoyas, Agau was limited to 11 minutes in his first season due to injuries. He averaged 4.5 points and 4.3 rebounds per game last season.

Coming out of high school, Agau was a four-star prospect but he’s never lived up to that billing in-part because of injuries. Now, Agau gets one more chance to make a difference as he’s hoping to help replace some departed pieces like Ben Moore and Semi Ojeleye.

South Carolina loses big man Sedee Keita to transfer

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South Carolina big man Sedee Keita will transfer from the program, he announced on Friday.

The 6-foot-9 Keita was once regarded as a top-100 national prospect in the Class of 2016, but he never found consistent minutes with the Gamecocks for last season’s Final Four team.

Keita appeared in 29 games and averaged 1.1 points and 2.0 rebounds per game while shooting 27 percent from the field.

A native of Philadelphia, Keita will have to sit out next season before getting three more seasons of eligibility.

Although Keita failed to make an impact during his only season at South Carolina, he’ll be a coveted transfer thanks to his size and upside.

Mississippi State losing two to transfer

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Mississippi State will lose two players to transfer as freshmen Mario Kegler and Eli Wright are leaving the program.

Both Kegler and Wright were four-star prospects coming out of high school as they were apart of a six-man recruiting class that is supposed to be a major foundation for Ben Howland’s future with the Bulldogs.

The 6-foot-7 Kegler was Mississippi State’s third-leading scorer last season as he averaged 9.7 points and 5.5 rebounds per game. Kegler should command some quality schools on the transfer market, especially since he’ll still have three more years of eligibility after sitting out next season due to NCAA transfer regulations. Kegler’s loss is also notable for Mississippi State because it is the second consecutive offseason that Howland lost a top-100, in-state product to transfer after only one season after Malik Newman left for Kansas.

Wright, a 6-foot-4 guard, was never able to find consistent minutes as he was already behind underclass perimeter options like Quinndary Weatherspoon, Lamar Peters and Tyson Carter last season. With Nick Weatherspoon, Quinndary’s four-star brother, also joining the Bulldogs next season, the writing was likely on the wall that Wright wasn’t going to earn significant playing time.

 

N.C. State lands second transfer of day with Utah’s Devon Daniels

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A big recruiting day for N.C. State continued on Saturday afternoon as Utah transfer and guard Devon Daniels pledged to the Wolfpack.

Earlier in the day, N.C. State and new head coach Kevin Keatts landed another quality transfer in UNC Wilmington guard C.J. Bryce.

The 6-foot-5 Daniels just finished his freshman season with the Utes in which he put up 9.9 points 4.6 rebounds and 2.7 assists per game while shooting 57 percent from the field and 40 percent from three-point range. Just like Bryce, Daniels will have to sit out the 2017-18 season due to NCAA transfer regulations before he has three more seasons of eligibility.

N.C. State now has two potential starters on the perimeter for the 2018-19 season with the addition of Bryce and Daniels as it will be interesting to see what kind of talent the Wolfpack can get around them.