The Chase for 180: Jahii Carson’s improved jump shot

Leave a comment

Who is the best shooter in the country?

It’s a tough question to answer, isn’t it? Does being a “shooter” simply mean merely being a high-level marksman from beyond the arc? Can a player who thrives in the mid-range but rarely ventures out into three-point land be eligible? How heavily should we be valuing stats like efficiency and effective field goal percentage when taking all of this into account?

One number that we like to use is “180″. How do you become a 180 shooter? By shooting 50% or better from the field overall, 40% or better from three and at least 90% from the charity stripe. From this point forward we’ll track this until the end of the regular season, providing weekly updates as well as a look into how some of the nation’s best find (and connect on) their quality looks.

There’s no denying the fact that Arizona State point guard Jahii Carson was one of the nation’s best newcomers in 2012-13. After having to sit out the season prior Carson hit the ground running, posting averages of 18.5 points, 5.1 assists and 3.7 rebounds per game. Those numbers and the fact that the Sun Devils increased their win total by 12 (from ten wins in 2011-12 to 22) and scored nearly 11 points more per game led to Carson winning a share of the Pac-12’s Freshman of the Year award.

So what’s there to do for an encore? For starters, shoot at a better clip from beyond the arc and from the field overall. Through ten games Carson’s shot 51% from the field, an increase of more than three percentage points from a season ago, and his three-point percentage (52.9%) has jumped 20.9%. And for those into tempo-neutral numbers (per Carson’s effective field goal (from 50.7% to 57.0%) and true shooting (from 55.2% to 59.6%) percentages have improved as well.

The presence of a Jermaine Marshall on the perimeter has certainly helped matters, and Carson’s also found a way to earn even more scoring opportunities at the rim. According to Carson’s attempted nearly 52% of his shots at the rim, shooting 57.7% in such situations. While his field goal percentage at the rim in 2012-13 wasn’t far off (56.9%), just 42.8% of Carson’s shots were attempted in this area of the floor.

Carson’s three-point percentage improvement will be the stat that receives the most attention, because it’s rare for a player who’s responsible for the amount of offensive production asked of Carson to make a nearly 21-percent improvement from one year to the next. Carson’s always had the speed to beat defenders off the dribble, resulting in many choosing to sag off and force him to prove that he can consistently knock down perimeter shots. Through ten games it’s obvious that he’s improved in this area.

THE TOP TEN (Note: Players much be eligible to be ranked in FG%, 3PT% and FT%. And here’s a glossary that includes the stats you’ll see used in these posts.)

1) Austin Tillotson (Colgate)
66.7% FG, 70.6% 3PT, 90.0% FT = 227.3
Shot%: 19.0%
eFG%: 75.0%
True shooting%: 76.6%

2) Austin Hamilton (Elon)
61.2%, 61.1%, 77.3% = 199.6
Shot%: 16.0%
eFG%: 72.4%
True shooting%: 74.0%

3) Michael Frazier II (Florida)
51.4%, 52.2%, 91.7% = 195.3
Shot%: 20.4%
eFG%: 67.6%
True shooting%: 69.6%

4) Kevin Pangos (Gonzaga)
49.6%, 50.0%, 92.7% = 192.3
Shot%: 24.7%
eFG%: 64.2%
True shooting%: 68.8%

5) Will Neighbour (UALR)
59.7%, 52.9%, 77.8% = 190.4
Shot%: 22.0%
eFG%: 64.2%
True shooting%: 68.9%

6) Shabazz Napier (UConn)
50.0%, 57.1%, 78.0% = 185.1
Shot%: 22.0%
eFG%: 58.9%
True shooting%: 63.0%

7) Doug McDermott (Creighton)
50.3%, 45.3%, 86.7% = 182.3
Shot%: 36.8%
eFG%: 58.3%
True shooting%: 63.5%

8) Jalen Jackson (Central Arkansas)
52.7%, 51.9%, 77.8% = 182.4
Shot %: 23.7%
eFG%: 65.5%
True shooting%: 67.7%

9) Jahii Carson (Arizona State)
51.0%, 52.9%, 75.0% = 178.9
Shot%: 30.8%
eFG%: 57.0%
True shooting%: 59.6%

10) Zach LaVine (UCLA)
60.5%, 50.0%, 66.7% = 177.2
Shot%: 23.6%
eFG%: 72.8%
True shooting%: 72.6%

Five close-range shooters (no three-pointers attempted)

1) Sim Bhullar (New Mexico State)
70.9% FG, 1.89 PPS

2) Jon Smith (Ohio)
70.5% FG, 1.64 PPS

3) Kourtney Roberson (Texas A&M)
69.7%, 1.82 PPS

4) Marshall Bjorklund (North Dakota State)
69.7%, 1.66 PPS

5) Jordan Threloff (Northern Illinois)
69.4%, 1.92 PPS

Previous Installments
November 11
December 4

College Basketball Talk’s Top 25: Xavier, Syracuse, Texas A&M are big winners

AP Photo/Willie J. Allen Jr.
Leave a comment

At this point in the season, I think it is still too early to solely base rankings off of on-the-court results. That’s why you’re going to find North Carolina higher in this poll than likely anywhere else on the internet. Until we see what the Tar Heels look like with Marcus Paige — which, mind you, could happen on Tuesday night when they host Maryland — I’m not sure I’m ready to drop them, even for a team that looks as good as Michigan State or Kansas.

The biggest risers of the week: Xavier and Syracuse, who both won big tournaments over the Thanksgiving holiday. They also both happened to knock off rivals in the process, as the Musketeers blew out Dayton while the Orange knocked off UConn.

1. Kentucky (6-0, LW: No. 1): Kentucky got a real scare over the weekend, as Tyler Ulis hyper-extended his elbow against South Florida. He appears to be just fine.

2. Maryland (6-0, LW: No. 2): The Terps have not looked great early on this season, but they’re going to get a real test on Tuesday when they visit UNC.

3. North Carolina (5-1, LW: No. 3): Here’s to hoping Marcus Paige is healthy when Maryland comes to visit this week.

4. Michigan State (7-0, LW: No. 4): Denzel Valentine has been sensational this season, but the most impressive part of Michigan State’s win over Providence on Sunday was that they did it while Valentine was in foul trouble and struggling to shoot the ball.

5. Kansas (4-1, LW: No. 6): The Jayhawks had a pretty good week. They won Maui, they blew out a good Vanderbilt team, Wayne Selden showed up and Cheick Diallo got eligible. I hope Bill Self bought some lottery tickets.

6. Villanova (6-0, LW: No. 5): I really like the Wildcats this year, I do, but I dropped them a spot for two reasons: 1. I thought Kansas was better entering the season and the Jayhawks looked terrific this week in Maui, before Cheick Diallo played, and 2. Villanova hasn’t beaten anyone of note yet. Next Monday they get Oklahoma. We’ll know then.

7. Iowa State (5-0, LW: No. 7): The Cyclones are 5-0 with wins over three high-major programs, but their best win may be the win over Chattanooga. I think we’ll really get a feel for how good this team next month, when, in a 12-day stretch, they get Iowa, Northern Iowa and Cincinnati on the road.

8. Oklahoma (4-0, LW: No. 8): The Sooners put a whooping on Wisconsin on Sunday afternoon, the kind of performance that made it very clear Oklahoma is a contender this season and Wisconsin is not. Buddy Hield has been terrific, but so has big man Ryan Spangler.

9. Duke (6-1, LW: No. 10): The loss to Kentucky continues to look like the aberration in Duke’s early season schedule, as they rolled over Utah State and Yale this week. The big news: Luke Kennard has finally found his rhythm, as he scored 22 points and went 4-for-5 from the floor on Sunday.

10. Virginia (5-1, LW: No. 11): Virginia has won four straight since their loss at GW, scoring at least 80 points in every game and never giving up more than 66. It’s not the stiffest of competition, but it should go to show you (like I said at the time) that the loss at GW said more about GW than Virginia.

11. Xavier (7-0, LW: No. 21)
12. Purdue (6-0, LW: No. 15)
13. Vanderbilt (5-1, LW: No. 16)
14. Miami (5-1, LW: No. 9)
15. Syracuse (6-0, LW: UR)
16. Texas A&M (6-1, LW: UR)
17. Gonzaga (4-1, LW: No. 17)
18. Oregon (5-0, LW: No. 25)
19. Cincinnati (7-0, LW: No. 20)
20. Baylor (4-1, LW: No. 22)
21. Butler (4-1, LW: No. 23)
22. UConn (4-2, LW: No. 18)
23. Providence (6-1, LW: UR)
24. West Virginia (6-0, LW: UR)
25. SMU (4-0, LW: UR)

DROPPED OUT: No. 12 Cal, No. 13 Arizona, No. 14 Indiana, No. 19 Notre Dame, No. 24 Wichita State

WEEKLY AWARDS: Denzel Valentine’s big week, Kansas makes a statement

Denzel Valentine
(AP Photo/Alex Gallardo)
Leave a comment

PLAYER OF THE WEEK: Denzel Valentine, Michigan State

In the title game of the Wooden Legacy, a game that was billed as a matchup between the two best players in college basketball — Valentine and Kris Dunn — Valentine was downright bad …

… by his standards. He finished with “just” 17 points, six assists and five boards. I say “just” because, in the previous two games of the tournament, the Spartan superstar averaged 30.5 points, 10.0 boards and 8.0 assists. He’s been, hands down, the best player in college basketball this season, and that didn’t change this week.


  • Ben Bentil, Providence: Kris Dunn is the guy that is going to get all the national praise, but it was Bentil’s emergence that was critical for the Friars. He averaged 21.7 points and 6.0 boards in three games in the Wooden Legacy, carrying PC when Dunn was battling foul issues.
  • Wayne Selden, Kansas: The highlight of Selden’s week was scoring 25 points on 8-for-11 shooting in the Maui title game win over No. 19 Vanderbilt. For the week, he averaged 19.3 points and shot 12-for-17 from three.
  • Justin Robinson, Monmouth: Robinson averaged 25.7 points in three games for Monmouth at the Advocare Invitational. The Hawks beat No. 17 Notre Dame and USC in the process, only losing to Dayton by three.
  • Justin Jackson, North Carolina: Remember when Justin Jackson was struggling? He averaged 21.5 points, 9.0 boards and 5.0 assists in wins over Northwestern and Kansas State. That came on the heels of a 25-point performance in the loss at Northern Iowa.
  • Henry Ellenson, Marquette: Ellenson notched three straight double-doubles for the Golden Eagles this week, which included 16 points and 11 boards in a win over Ben Simmons and LSU.

TEAM OF THE WEEK: Kansas Jayhawks

Kansas headed out to Maui as a team that many weren’t really sure what to make of. They looked good against Michigan State for 30 minutes, then they blew that game as Denzel Valentine went bananas. They had as much depth as anyone in the country, but Brannen Greene was suspended, Cheick Diallo was ineligible and Wayne Selden was the most notable of a handful of talented players that had been somewhere between inconsistent and ineffective this year.

That all changed in Maui — well, other than Greene’s suspension — as Kansas rolled over Chaminade, UCLA and Vanderbilt to bring home the tournament title. Blowing out Chaminade was to be expected. But beating down a talented UCLA team? Dominating a very good Vanderbilt squad? That’s the Kansas we’ve been hoping to see show up for a few years now. The question is whether or not it’s sustainable, and at least on paper, it appears to be. Selden’s shooting percentages will come back to earth, but his raw numbers are less important than his confidence and aggressiveness. Frank Mason and Devonte’ Graham are going to continue to take pressure off of each other in the back court. Perry Ellis isn’t going anywhere.

I questioned whether or not Kansas was truly one of the nation’s elite when the season started. I think they answered that question for me.


  • Xavier: The Musketeers not only won the Advocare Invitational in Orlando, they blew out in-state — and former Atlantic 10 — rival Dayton in the finals.
  • Syracuse: The Orange are going to be a factor in the ACC this season. How much? I don’t know. But after winning the Battle 4 Atlantis by knocking off No. 18 UConn and No. 25 Texas A&M, it’s clear they’re going to be involved all season.
  • Northeastern: The Huskies picked up a road win against No. 15 Miami on this buzzer-beating jumper.
  • Arkansas-Little Rock: The Trojans picked up their second huge road win of the year, going into Tulsa and knocking off the Golden Hurricane. They’re now 5-0 on the season, having also won at SDSU.
  • Tournament winners: West Virginia knocked off Richmond and San Diego State to bring home the Las Vegas Invitational title, No. 24 Cincinnati beat Nebraska and George Washington in the Barclays Center Classic and Marquette knocked off LSU and Arizona State to win the Legends Classic.


Tuesday: No. 2 Maryland at No. 9 North Carolina, 9:30 p.m.
Wednesday: Butler at No. 24 Cincinnati, 7:00 p.m.
Wednesday: Louisville at No. 3 Michigan State, 7:15 p.m.
Wednesday: No. 13 Indiana at No. 6 Duke, 9:15 p.m.
Saturday: No. 11 Arizona at No. 10 Gonzaga, 3:15 p.m.