Preseason prognostication is, more or less, a guessing game.
The picks that the so-called experts — myself included — make are educated and generally well-researched, but they’re still guess. And oftentimes, those guesses end up wrong.
Through a month of the season, who did we swing-and-miss on the most?:
TEN MOST DISAPPOINTING PLAYERS
Luke Hancock, Louisville: Maybe our expectations for Hancock were too high heading into the season given that he was basically a role player prior to the Final Four. But even as a role player, Hancock isn’t doing his job. He’s shooting 31.4% from the floor and 22.9% from three.
Joe Harris and Akil Mitchell, Virginia: The ‘Hoos have been one of the most disappointing teams this season and it’s mainly due to the play of Harris and Mitchell. Harris is averaging 11.3 points this season, five point less than a year ago, while Mitchell’s numbers are down to 6.3 points and 4.8 boards.
Mitch McGary and Glenn Robinson III, Michigan: No one is feeling the loss of Trey Burke like these two. McGary’s struggles we can explain away as a back injury. GR3? Well, he’s been exposed as a spot-up shooting athlete that is either unable or unwilling to attack the basket off the bounce. He may end up regretting not leaving for the NBA after last season.
James Michael McAdoo, North Carolina: McAdoo is a freak athlete, but maybe it’s time to accept that he’s just never going to morph into the star that we all expect him to be. But if he does? Think about it like this: North Carolina beat Louisville and Michigan State when he combined to go 6-for-22 from the floor.
Alex Poythress, Kentucky: Poythress has become the Invisible Man for the Wildcats. He’s buried in Kentucky’s front court rotation, which means he’s been forced to play on the perimeter. He’s not a perimeter player. He’s averaging 4.8 points and 6.2 boards and coming off of a scoreless six minutes against Baylor.
Joshua Smith, Georgetown: Smith has been good for Georgetown this season. He’s been averaging 13.6 points, drawing fouls and taking up space in the middle of the floor. But he’s playing less than 20 minutes a night, not a presence on the glass and an atrocious defender. He has the ability to dominate, but he’s not.
Rasheed Sulaimon, Duke: Sulaimon has fallen way out of favor with the Duke coaching staff. He took the dreaded DNP-CD in Duke’s win over Michigan, and the likes of Tyler Thornton and Matt Jones have passed him in the rotation. He’s averaging 3.4 points over his last seven games.
Gabe York, Arizona: York came out on fire this season, which is part of the reason that his recent struggles have been a disappointment. In the five games since putting 20 on Fairleigh Dickinson, he’s averaging 5.0 points and shooting 5-for-17 from three.