2013-2014 Big Ten Preview: The power resides in Michigan

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All month long, CBT will be rolling out our 2013-2014 season preview. Check back throughout the day, as we’ll be posting three or four preview items every day.

To browse through the preview posts we’ve already published, click here. To see the rest of the Conference Previews we’ve published, click here. For a schedule of our previews for the month, click here.

The Big Ten is once again loaded this season, with Michigan State entering the season as NBCSports.com’s Preseason No. 1 team in the country. The Spartans caught a break in the offseason, as both Gary Harris and Adreian Payne opted to return to school for another season. The same can be said for Michigan, who lost Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr. but brought back Mitch McGary and Glenn Robinson III.

All told, the Big Ten should produce at least six NCAA tournament bids with as many as eight or nine teams — depending on how you view Purdue, Illinois and Minnesota — with the potential to play their way into the dance. But what makes this conference tough is that there won’t be an easy out this year. Northwestern returns Drew Crawford and brings in new head coach Chris Collins. Nebraska has steadily improved under Tim Miles, brings back some talent and has a nice recruiting class. Tim Frazier’s return means the Nittany Lions have one of the best back courts in the conference.

FIVE THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW:

1. There’s something wrong with Mitch McGary’s back: We just don’t happen to know what it is. McGary has been sitting out of practices and has spent Michigan’s two exhibition games suited up in a shirt and tie. The Wolverines haven’t let anyone know what the issue is, but McGary has said that he’ll be back for the Duke game on Dec. 3rd at the latest. Having the big fella slowed is an issue: he’s never been a guy that is in great shape, and sitting out preseason practices sure won’t help that. And as much as I like Jordan Morgan, he’s just not the same presence inside.

2. Ohio State needs LaQuinton Ross to step up: Ross is a trendy pick to be a breakout player this season for two reasons: everyone saw him go off in the NCAA tournament, when he averaged 17.7 points in the Buckeye’s last three games and hit a game-winner against Arizona. More importantly, with Deshaun Thomas gone, there will be plenty of shots and scoring opportunities available for Ohio State. Thad Matta lacks a true go-to threat offensively. Ross needs to be that guy.

3. Keith Appling is the key to Michigan State’s season: The Spartans are finally healthy this season, with Gary Harris, Branden Dawson and Travis Trice all back to 100%. Adreian Payne is back in the fold and ready to take on a bigger roll. The key for the Spartans, however, is going to be Appling’s ability to run the point. Can he be a leader and a playmaker offensively? He’s had the job for two years now, and he’s yet to fully adjust to being a point guard.

4. Iowa is the team to watch in the Big Ten: The Hawkeyes head into this season as one of the most intriguing teams in the country. They have a nice blend of veteran leadership and talented youngsters with a season of college hoops under their belt. Jarrod Uthoff is finally eligible to play this season as well, meaning that Iowa can go 10 or 11 deep is need be. They have size, they have guard play, they can score. I don’t think it’s crazy to say they can finish top four in the conference.

5. Yogi Ferrell is the most important player in the conference: With the amount of talent that Indiana loses off of last season’s roster, it’s impressive that the Hoosiers are able to enter this season as a top 25 team. There’s potential here, but there are a lot of question marks as well. Does Tom Crean use a bigger or smaller lineup? Two guards? Two posts? How good is Noah Vonleh? Who joins him up front? Does Jeremy Hollowell take the leap this season? The only thing we know for sure is that Yogi Ferrell is their starting PG, and that he can really play. The Hoosiers need him to be a go-to scorer and a leader this year.

PRESEASON BIG TEN PLAYER OF THE YEAR: Gary Harris, Michigan State

We’ve heard it all offseason: last year’s Gary Harris wasn’t the real Gary Harris. He was forced to pigeon-hole himself as a jumpshooter because of a bum shoulder that made it really painful for him to try and drive through contact. And while Harris can shoot it, he’s a much more well-rounded player than he showed last season. Expect him to be an all-american candidate by season’s end.

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THE REST OF THE ALL-BIG TEN FIRST TEAM:

  • Aaron Craft, Ohio State: He’s a winner, a leader and a lockdown defender. Not much else needs to be said.
  • Mitch McGary, Michigan: McGary is a double-double machine and a potential all-american if his back cooperates.
  • Glenn Robinson III, Michigan: A freak athlete, it will be interesting to see if GR3 can become a more well-rounded offensive weapon as a sophomore.
  • Adreian Payne, Michigan: Payne is getting a lot of hype for a guy that averaged 10.5 points and 7.6 boards as a junior, but if he lives up to his potential, he’s a top five big man nationally.

FIVE MORE NAMES TO KNOW:

  • Yogi Ferrell, Indiana
  • Sam Dekker, Wisconsin
  • Roy Devyn Marble, Iowa
  • Tim Frazier, Penn State
  • LaQuinton Ross, Ohio State

BREAKOUT STAR: Sam Dekker, Wisconsin

The Big Ten is home to a number of breakout candidates — A.J. Hammons, LaQuinton Ross, Glenn Robinson III — but I’ll go with Sam Dekker. Dekker is a very, very talented wing forward. He’s 6-foot-7 and athletic with range beyond the college three-point line. He’ll be taking on a go-to role in Wisconsin’s offensive this season as well, meaning that there will be plenty of opportunities for him to put up his numbers.

COACH UNDER PRESSURE: Matt Painter, Purdue

There really isn’t any coach in this league under too much pressure, but I’ll go with Painter for a couple reasons: 1) He coaches basketball-centric Indiana, where the rival Hoosiers are riding high; 2) He’s coming off of a season where he finished under .500; and 3) Painter has some talent on his roster that doesn’t seem to want to buy-in. He’s not at risk of losing his job, but another down year and that seat might start to feel a little warm.

ON SELECTION SUNDAY WE’LL BE SAYING … : The Big Ten ended up being the nation’s deepest conference.

I’M MOST EXCITED ABOUT : Michigan vs. Michigan State.

FIVE NON-CONFERENCE GAMES TO CIRCLE ON YOUR CALENDAR:

  • Nov. 12, Michigan State vs. Kentucky (Champions Classic in Chicago)
  • Dec. 3, Michigan at Duke
  • Dec. 4, North Carolina at Michigan State
  • Dec. 7, Marquette at Wisconsin
  • Dec. 14, Arizona at Michigan

PREDICTED FINISH

1. Michigan State: The Spartans are going to be excellent, but I am having a tough time putting trust in Keith Appling and Adreian Payne to break the mold they’ve set for themselves the past three seasons.
2. Michigan: Replacing Trey Burke won’t be easy, but if McGary’s back injury plagues him throughout the year, the Wolverines are in some trouble.
3. Ohio State: The Buckeyes are going to be a nightmare on the defensive end with Aaron Craft, Shannon Scott and Sam Thompson. But can they score?
4. Wisconsin: Bo Ryan always finishes top four in the Big Ten, so I’ll slot the Badgers top four. Front court depth is an issue, but Frank Kaminsky should have a big season.
5. Indiana: The Hoosiers have the talent. The question is whether or not it will actually come together. They are young and inexperienced, especially up front.
6. Iowa: This is the year for the Hawkeyes. They are deep, they are talented and they are balanced. Can the sophomores — Mike Gesell, Adam Woodbury, Jarrod Uthoff — make the jump?
7. Purdue: A.J. Hammons is big and talented enough to be an all-american before his career his done, I truly believe that. But does he want to be? He’s already been suspended this year.
8. Illinois: John Groce loaded up on transfers and freshmen this season, meaning that the Illini will have talent on their roster, but it may take a few games for them to truly get into sync. There is a ton of guard talent.
9. Minnesota: Andre Hollins is one of the nation’s best kept secrets, and with Richard Pitino bringing in some back court talent to join him, the Gophers are going to be a dangerous, pressing team. Not sure if they’re tourney ready yet, though.
10. Penn State: Tim Frazier and D.J. Newbill form a back court many across the country will be envious of. It’s a shame Jermaine Marshall transferred.
11. Northwestern: Drew Crawford is healthy this season. Chris Collins is now coaching the Wildcats. They still have a lot of work to do, however.
12. Nebraska: The Cornhuskers actually shouldn’t be terrible. This league is just tough. Is “The Best Last Place Power Conference Team” a compliment?

ODU graduate transfer Trey Porter headed to Nevada

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Nevada is adding an immediate impact big to its roster.

The Wolf Pack received the commitment of Old Dominion graduate transfer Trey Porter, they announced Wednesday.

The 6-foot-10 Porter averaged 13.2 points, 6.2 rebounds, 1.3 blocks for ODU last season. He announced his decision to finish his career elsewhere last month.

“We are so excited about Trey Porter joining our Nevada Family,” Wolf Pack coach Eric Musselman said in a statement. “Trey is an incredible athlete, has tremendous length, and has huge upside. He is a great rebounder who can score the ball in the post and face up. He has phenomenal speed for his size and will really fit in our uptempo style on both ends of the floor.”

Porter, who began his career at George Mason, shot 58.8 percent from the field last season and registered four double-doubles.

“I am very excited about the opportunity to play at a program like Nevada,” Porter said in a statement. “As soon as I stepped on campus, I could tell how invested the coaching staff, program, and university were to my success and how I would fit in with the team. I am ready to get back to Reno and get to work on next season.”

Nevada upset Cincinnati and Texas in the NCAA tournament last season to reach the Sweet 16. They finished 29-8 overall. The Wolf Pack have uncertainty with their roster with Jordan Caroline, Caleb Martin and Cody Martin all testing the NBA draft waters.

Loyola extends Porter Moser through 2026

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A trip to the Final Four might prove significantly lucrative to Loyola-Chicago coach Porter Moser.

The Ramblers announced Wednesday that they reached a new contract agreement with Moser that will extend his deal through 2026 with what the Chicago Tribune called a “hefty raise” on his $420,000 per year salary, citing an anonymous source.

“As I have said many times before, I am a Catholic kid from Chicago who played in the Missouri Valley Conference,” Moser said in a statement released by the school. “This is the trifecta for me. We have invested so much time and energy in this program and I’m beyond excited to continue the journey. Watching Chicago as well as Loyola students, alumni and fans get excited for this team was exactly the vision we had when we took over the program.

“I will continue to challenge our fans to fill Gentile Arena as we did for the final home game to make it one of the best college basketball atmospheres in the country.”

The Ramblers went 32-6 last year, winning the Missouri Valley Conference regular season and tournament titles ahead of their magical run to the Final Four for the first time winning the NCAA tournament in 1963. They return three starters from the Final Four squad, including MVC player of the year Clayton Custer.

“We are excited to be able to announce a new contract for Porter that will keep him at Loyola a long time,” athletic director Steve Watson said. “He is the perfect fit for Loyola and operates his program the right way, with student-athletes who achieve excellence on the court and in the classroom and are also excellent representatives of the institution.

“We are fortunate to work at a university like Loyola, that values and has made a commitment to athletics. It is nice to reward Porter not just for an outstanding season, but also for the job he has done during his time here.”

 

Dayton adds Michigan transfer

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After two years with a limited role at Michigan, Ibi Watson is returning to his home state.

The Wolverines guard is transferring to Dayton, it was announced Wednesday.  

“We are very pleased to have Ibi join our Flyer Family,” Dayton coach Anthony Grant said in a statement.  “He is a young man who knew what he wanted after leaving a great University and winning basketball team at Michigan.  He has seen first-hand what it takes to be successful at this level.”

Watson averaged just 5.2 minutes per game during his sophomore season in Ann Arbor. He will sit out the upcoming season and then have two years of eligibility remaining starting in 2019-20.

“I know he will utilize his redshirt year to improve himself in every way,” Grant said, “and having an experienced, talented player to go against every day in practice next season will only help our younger players grow.  Ibi is an important piece of our future. Our team and campus community will enjoy having him become a Flyer.”

The Pickerington, Ohio native was a first-team all state selection as a senior when he averaged more than 19 points per game. He now joins Dwayne Cohill, Jhery Matos and Frankie Policelli as Grant’s 2018 class.

Report: NBA unlikely to change one-and-done rule before 2020 draft

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The Commission on College Basketball made a whole host of recommendations Wednesday. From increasing penalties on cheaters, to restructuring summer basketball to player representation, the report had plenty of ideas (though it omitted the most obvious).

One of its core recommendations, however, came in an area the NCAA has zero control.

The NBA draft.

The Commission suggested that the “one-and-done” rule be scrapped in favor of letting players leave straight from high school to the pros, a rule that has been collectively bargained by the NBA and its players union.

If any change is going to happen, it’s got to happen there, and it apparently won’t be in the next couple years. The NBA is unlikely to change its draft entry requirements ahead of the 2020 draft, according to a report from ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski.

The subject has been broached by both the league and the union, but how any negotiation about the issue will unfold is uncertain, according to the report.

The NCAA has little leverage on the matter as the NBA and the union ultimately will act in what they believe is in their own best interests with little mind paid to what the NCAA wants. The NCAA also has little leverage in the matter as its most heavy-handed card to play is freshman ineligibility, which would seem to be an unwieldy and ill-advised option.

Disallowing an entire class to play their freshman season would likely have unintended consequences that harm college basketball while doing little to actually solve the problem The Commission set out to fix – illicit money in the game.

Commission on College Basketball Proposals: Can they actually work?

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On Wednesday morning, The Commission on College Basketball finally unveiled their findings on what changes need to be enacted in the sport to clean up the mess that has been created.

And while The Commission’s findings were far from perfect, there were some suggestions that they came up with that might actually have some benefit to the sport.

It just takes some time to actually dig them up.

Best I can tell, there are six talking points that we need to address stemming from today’s release.

Let’s work through all of them.

1. A BIG ‘NO COMMENT’ ON THE OLYMPIC MODEL AND CHANGES TO AMATEURISM RULES

We discussed this in depth in a column already posted on the site, so I won’t go into too much detail here, but the bottom-line is this: Amateurism rules are never going to work, at least not in the current form. There is too much money on the line for too many people. The Commission opted not to address the issues involving amateurism because of pending litigation involving the NCAA’s use of an athlete’s name and likeness, but based on some of the comments that Condoleeza Rice made, it seems as if they at least realized that amateurism is a root cause of the problems they were trying to answer.

Hopefully, change will be coming at some point.

2. BEGGING (BLACKMAILING?) THE NBA AND NBPA TO CHANGE THE ONE-AND-DONE RULE

The one-and-done rule, which has come to define the sport of college basketball over the course of the last 12 years, is not a college basketball rule. It is an NBA rule, which means that the NCAA is essentially powerless to change the minimum age requirements that NBA owners wanted back in 2006, when they stopped allowing high school kids to declare for the NBA draft.

The Commission’s response?

To recommend that they combat the one-and-done rule by considering reinstating freshman ineligibility or by punishing programs that recruit one-and-done players by forcing them to lose a scholarship for each athlete that leaves school after one season.

Both of those suggestions are, of course, undeniably and unbelievably idiotic.

In the last 11 drafts, there have been an average of 10.2 freshmen that have been selected. This year, there are 17 freshmen that have declared for the draft and signed with an agent. This is in a sport with 351 teams that are all allowed to give out 13 scholarships; do that math, and there were roughly 4,500 Division I college basketball players. The Commission suggesting that it is a good idea to make those 1,100-or-so other Division I freshmen ineligible for a year because they’re mad the NBA forces 1.5 percent of the class to enroll makes me wonder why we should take any of their other suggestions seriously.

Simply put: This is an empty threat.

The other option, forcing a school to have one-and-done players count against one of their 13 scholarships for one season after they leave, is just as dumb. It’s not going to stop programs from recruiting those players, but it is going to make scholarship opportunities for other athletes disappear into thin air. For an organization that claims to have the best interest of “student-athletes” in mind, revoking scholarships in anyway is and always will be hypocritical. It should never happen.

And that’s before we get into the idea that the one-and-done players are the be-all and end-all of what’s happening here. They’re not. Brian Bowen, the central figure in the allegations made by the FBI that resulted in Louisville head coach Rick Pitino, was not a one-and-done prospect. Silvio De Sousa, who was allegedly funneled money by two different shoe companies to earn a commitment to two different programs, is not a one-and-done prospect. Nine of the 15 players that were mentioned in February’s Yahoo report as receiving money and/or loans were one-and-done players. The practice of boosters paying the best players dates back to the 50s. John Wooden’s legacy is, in part, a result of Sam Gilbert being flush with disposable income.

There is, always was and always will be a black market for the best players entering college basketball, whether those are the top 15-20 players in each class — the one-and-dones that will go straight to the pros — or the players ranked in the 20-40 range, that will spend a few years on campus, developing into the crafty veterans that have won Villanova and North Carolina the last three titles.

Shoe companies with nine-figure sponsorship deals with universities want to protect their investment. Coaches that get seven-figure raises and multi-year contract extensions when they win big want to win big. Boosters with deep pockets that love their school’s basketball team are always going to look for a way to get the best players on campus.

That’s a college basketball “problem” that’s only a “problem” because something as stupid and old-fashioned as amateurism still exists.

It’s not a one-and-done problem.

3. ALLOWING PLAYERS ACCESS TO AGENT REPRESENTATION

This is certainly a good thing.

I’ve said all along that it is silly to think that it’s a bad thing for kids that have earning potential that reaches eight or nine figures cannot have a professional advising them on what they can do. There are details that are going to need to be worked out — like, for example, how the NCAA handles the inevitable loans that agents are going to make to the players they sign — but without question this is a good thing.

4. UNDERCLASSMEN THAT AREN’T DRAFTED CAN RETURN TO SCHOOL

In theory, I like this suggestion, but in practice, I think that it is going to be somewhat more complicated than people realize.

For starters, the NBA draft is in late June. Players start the process of declaring for the draft in mid-March, when they get knocked out of whatever tournament their team ends up playing in. That means there are more than three months where they will be away from their team, their coaching staffs and, potentially, out of class while they train and prepare for becoming a professional.

The other side of it is that players getting selected late in the second round often end up coming nowhere near making that team’s roster. Many times, agents and teams will already be in touch about the possibility of a second round pick signing a training camp deal or playing with that organization’s G League team. There are people that will tell you it’s better to go undrafted than it is to be selected late in the second round because it puts the player on the market and lets them pick a destination that is the best instead of being forced to go somewhere based on getting picked.

The sentiment here is great, but I’m not sure it is as simple as it seems on paper.

5. CHANGING THE WAY SUMMER BASKETBALL WORKS

This is where things stop making sense.

With all due respect to the people that were on The Commission, I’m not sure that any of them — outside of John Thompson III — truly have a feel for how AAU and grassroots basketball truly operates. Do you think that Condoleeza Rice has ever actually been to an Under Armour Association event? Have they spoken to the organizers of events like Hoop Group’s Pitt Jam Fest or the people that run Nike’s EYBL?

“We create more opportunities than anyone within the system,” said once source that helps organize events in the summer.

What it seems like The Commission is proposing is bringing summer basketball in-house, whether that is under the umbrella of the NCAA itself, USA Basketball, the NBA or all of the above. The problem with that is that there are so many different levels to college basketball and college basketball recruiting. I played college basketball. The coaches that recruited me at the Division III level saw me when I was playing on an AAU team, but the idea that there would be any benefit for anyone if a player of my caliber and one of the top players in the country were to be at the same event is ludicrous.

Then how do you determine who plays at what events? Do you really want the NCAA running hundreds of summer tournaments that include each include many hundreds of teams? How are they going to determine which players go to which events? How are they going to determine which coaches are allowed to be at which events?

And, this may be the most important part, they aren’t going to eliminate shoe companies from getting involved at the youth level. If anything, if they take away the access coaches have to shoe company events, they’ll only be making the people that run scouting services that much richer.

Asking for transparency from these apparel companies isn’t necessarily a bad thing, but then will the NCAA provide transparency into what happens with the billions of dollars that they bring in?

As one source so eloquently put it, the NCAA running their own camps is “Lolololol”.

Pretty much sums it up.

6. CHANGING ENFORCEMENT

One of the proposals that The Commission made is for stricter punishments for those that go outside the rules — longer postseason bans for schools, lifetime bans for serial offenders, punishments for schools that hire offenders. I guess that would be a deterrent, but not everything that goes on here involves people associated with the NCAA or the schools.

But that is beside the point.

Because the real issue is that the NCAA cannot dig any of this stuff up themselves. The enforcement arm is toothless, and while I do think that hiring independent investigators would help, the truth is that this was all brought to light because the FBI is allowed to tap phones and send in undercover agents that can splash around thousands of dollars of government money.

What independent investigators is going to be able to do that?