Shabazz Muhammad

How accurate are preseason mock drafts?

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People love rankings.

Whether it be top 100 recruiting lists, preseason top 25s, mock draft, best point guards, or simply a list of the best Vince Vaughn movies since 2000 — he’s never come close to replicating the success of Wedding Crashers.

Rankings let us argue the pointless and speculate about the future. For those of us covering college hoops, they generate page views while leading the discussion about Player X on Team Y doing this, that and the third this season.

But rankings, particularly preseason rankings, aren’t much more than educated guesses by people that pay just a bit too much attention. They aren’t a crystal ball looking into the future, and on Monday morning, Ken Pomeroy proved just that with an insightful look into preseason mock drafts and the likelihood of a player actually getting picked.

Pomeroy looked at the preseason mock drafts from Draft Express over the last six seasons and, after crunching a bunch of numbers (if that’s your thing, head over to and read through how he generated the data; it’s interesting), figured out that only the top 22 players have a better than 50% chance of actually getting picked in the first round. If you’re projected as the No. 30 pick in the draft, there’s only a 34.9% chance you’re drafted in the first round and just a 74.4% chance you get picked at all. If you’re projected as the No. 5 pick, there’s only a 66.0% chance you get drafted in the lottery. That number drops below 50% from the projected No. 9 pick and down to 33.8% from the projected No. 14 pick.

Some of that is the result of stars inflated by high school rankings — Perry Jones, Willie Warren, Jared Sullinger, Shabazz Muhammad — slipping through the cracks and some of it is unheralded kids — Victor Oladipo, Ben McLemore, Derrick Williams — flying up draft boards.

Why is that relevant this season?

Because with such a heralded freshmen class entering this season, it’s important to remember that there are no guarantees. Preseason hype is quickly forgotten if nothing is proven once the games actually begin.

“Stay away from the Internet because that’s the one thing that’s worse for the kids,” Muhammad, warning this year’s class, told “It hypes up your head. Just looking at the rankings and the draft the beginning of the year, the draft doesn’t really matter where you’re starting at. It’s where you are at the end, and that’s one thing I learned.”

This isn’t a knock on Draft Express — these results are actually pretty impressive — but it certainly goes to show you how helpful the one-and-done rule can be. Dominating at the high school level is a lot different than competing in college.

Former Wichita State assistant returns as a consultant

Chris Jans, Gregg Marshall
Associated Press
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Prior to a one-year stint as the head coach coach at Bowling Green that came to an end in early April as a result of an incident at a Bowling Green restaurant, Chris Jans was a member of Gregg Marshall’s coaching staff at Wichita State from 2007-14. During those seven seasons Jans was a key figure as the Shockers made the progression to a respected national power.

Jans is back in Wichita, with Paul Suellentrop of the Wichita Eagle reporting Thursday that he’s serving as a consultant to the program. Jans’ consulting agreement runs for 45 days, which the school can renew, and he’ll be paid $10,000 for the work. While Jans isn’t allowed to do any coaching, he can watch practices and provide Marshall and the coaching staff with his observations.

“He will be able to consult with the coaching staff, only on what he observes in practice,” said Darron Boatright, WSU deputy athletics director. “By NCAA rule, a consultant is not allowed to have communication with student-athletes … not about basketball-related activities or performance.”

While Jans (who according to the story has served in a similar role for another school) can’t do any coaching in this role, his return does give Marshall another trusted voice to call upon when needed. Wichita State bid farewell to an assistant coach this spring with Steve Forbes being hired as the head coach at East Tennessee State, with his position being filled by former Sunrise Christian Academy coach Kyle Lindsted.


AUDIO: Rick Pitino discusses allegations, future at Louisville

Rick Pitino
Associated Press
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Thursday afternoon marked the first time since Friday that Louisville head coach Rick Pitino commented on the controversy that has taken his program by storm. Speaking with Terry Meiners of 840 WHAS in Louisville, Pitino discussed the escort scandal, what could have possibly led former staffer Andre McGee down the path he’s alleged to have taken in Katina Powell’s book and his future at Louisville.

The interview began with Meiners asking Pitino if it changed his thinking as to whether or not he needed to resign, which (as one would expect) Pitino shot down. Also discussed was the statement released by school president Dr. James Ramsey, which expressed support for athletic director Tom Jurich but did not mention Pitino at all.

“Well I can’t answer that, Terry,” Pitino said when asked why he wasn’t mentioned in the statement. “Twenty-six years ago Kentucky brought me in to make the program compliant to NCAA rules. (Then-Kentucky president) Dr. (David) Roselle and (then Kentucky athletic director) C.M. Newton thought I was the guy to come in and change around the images, change around the culture and add a lot of discipline to the program. And I did that.

“And then I came here to the University of Louisville, and if someone was five seconds late or not early consequences would be paid from a disciplinary standpoint,” Pitino continued. “This is obviously not a person being late, this is not about a person (not) working hard. This is about things that are very disgusting, things that turn my stomach, things that keep me up without sleeping.

“But unfortunately, I had no knowledge of any of this and don’t believe in it. It’s sickening to me, the whole thing. But I’m thinking of my 13 players, I’m thinking of our program, and I’m sorry that Dr. Ramsey did not think enough to mention me but that’s something I cannot control.”

Below is audio of the full interview, which ran just over 17 minutes in length.