Shabazz Muhammad

How accurate are preseason mock drafts?

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People love rankings.

Whether it be top 100 recruiting lists, preseason top 25s, mock draft, best point guards, or simply a list of the best Vince Vaughn movies since 2000 — he’s never come close to replicating the success of Wedding Crashers.

Rankings let us argue the pointless and speculate about the future. For those of us covering college hoops, they generate page views while leading the discussion about Player X on Team Y doing this, that and the third this season.

But rankings, particularly preseason rankings, aren’t much more than educated guesses by people that pay just a bit too much attention. They aren’t a crystal ball looking into the future, and on Monday morning, Ken Pomeroy proved just that with an insightful look into preseason mock drafts and the likelihood of a player actually getting picked.

Pomeroy looked at the preseason mock drafts from Draft Express over the last six seasons and, after crunching a bunch of numbers (if that’s your thing, head over to and read through how he generated the data; it’s interesting), figured out that only the top 22 players have a better than 50% chance of actually getting picked in the first round. If you’re projected as the No. 30 pick in the draft, there’s only a 34.9% chance you’re drafted in the first round and just a 74.4% chance you get picked at all. If you’re projected as the No. 5 pick, there’s only a 66.0% chance you get drafted in the lottery. That number drops below 50% from the projected No. 9 pick and down to 33.8% from the projected No. 14 pick.

Some of that is the result of stars inflated by high school rankings — Perry Jones, Willie Warren, Jared Sullinger, Shabazz Muhammad — slipping through the cracks and some of it is unheralded kids — Victor Oladipo, Ben McLemore, Derrick Williams — flying up draft boards.

Why is that relevant this season?

Because with such a heralded freshmen class entering this season, it’s important to remember that there are no guarantees. Preseason hype is quickly forgotten if nothing is proven once the games actually begin.

“Stay away from the Internet because that’s the one thing that’s worse for the kids,” Muhammad, warning this year’s class, told “It hypes up your head. Just looking at the rankings and the draft the beginning of the year, the draft doesn’t really matter where you’re starting at. It’s where you are at the end, and that’s one thing I learned.”

This isn’t a knock on Draft Express — these results are actually pretty impressive — but it certainly goes to show you how helpful the one-and-done rule can be. Dominating at the high school level is a lot different than competing in college.

PREGAME SHOOTAROUND: Kansas-Vandy in Maui, rivalries renewed in Bahamas

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GAME OF THE NIGHT: No. 19 Vanderbilt vs. No. 5 Kansas, 10:00 p.m.

The title game of the Maui Invitational pits the two best teams in the tournament, as it should. Outside of the final 10 minutes of their loss to Michigan State, the Jayhawks have looked terrific this season. And while Selden was not at his best against the Spartans, he looked awesome in two games in Maui. Vanderbilt, on the other hand, is a tough team for them to matchup with, especially without time to prepare. They are loaded with shooters who surround Damian Jones, one of the best big men in the country. Combine all that with Kevin Stallings’ play-calling, and the ‘Dores are tough.

This should be appointment television.

THIS ONE’S GOOD, TOO: No. 18 UConn vs. Michigan, 9:30 p.m.

The best matchup in the first round of the Battle 4 Atlantis pits two teams with terrific guard play that have question marks along their front court. The best individual matchup of the day may end up being Caris LeVert squaring off with Daniel Hamilton.


1. No. 10 Gonzaga vs. Washington, 12:00 p.m.: The Zags and their loaded front line get their first real test of the season against a Washington team that has been surprisingly good this year. This rivalry should be played every year. I wonder if it’s a coincidence they got matched up in the first round?

2. No. 13 Indiana vs. UNLV 5:00 p.m.: The Hoosiers have been a major disappointment out in Maui, while UNLV will look to bounce back after a loss to UCLA in their opener. Will Stephen Zimmerman be healthy enough to play?

3. Texas vs. No. 25 Texas A&M, 7:00 p.m.: All kinds of rivalries are being renewed out in the Bahamas. Another coincidence, I’m sure.

4. No. 2 Maryland at Rhode Island, 8:30 p.m.: The Terps have struggled their last two games against the likes of Illinois State and Rider. They can’t mess around against a quality team like URI.

5. Yale at No. 6 Duke, 7:00 p.m.: Yale nearly upset SMU at SMU. Duke is a different beast, but keep an eye on the Elis.


  • Lehigh at No. 12 Virginia, 7:00 p.m.
  • Arkansas State at No. 21 Oregon, 7:00 p.m.


  • Syracuse vs. Charlotte, 2:30 p.m.
  • Wake Forest vs. UCLA, 7:30 p.m.

VIDEO: Roy Williams dabbed, the dab is officially dead

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No. 9 North Carolina dispatched a tougher-than-expected Kansas State team in the CBE Classic in Kansas City on Tuesday night.

To celebrate, Roy Williams — good ole boy for life — celebrated in the locker room by … hitting that dab on ’em.

Don’t know what ‘the dab’ is? It’s a dance move that was made famous by the rap group Migos and that came crashing into mainstream America’s consciousness when Cam Newton and a Tennessee Titans defender had a bit of a scuffle over Newton dancing — or hitting his dab — after a touchdown.

Anyway, here is Ol’ Roy dabbing, which is as awesome as it sounds:

And now dabbing is officially dead.