Image: State Farm Champions Classic - Michigan State v Kansas

Breaking down Tip-Off Marathon’s schedule: Snoozers until an epic nightcap

1 Comment

ESPN (slowly) released the schedule for their now-annual College Hoops Tip-Off Marathon on Monday afternoon, and — quite frankly — the first 12 hours or so weren’t exactly worth the wait.

But the last four hours?

Look out.

After a full 24 hours worth of basketball — the marathon technically starts at 7 p.m. the night before — we get the season’s first installment of College Gameday, as the ESPN crew heads to the United Center for one could end up being the best double-header of hoops we get all season long.

It starts with a 7:30 p.m. (all times Eastern) tip with Michigan State taking on Kentucky, who just may be the two best teams in the country heading into the 2013-2014 season. Kentucky brings in their all-world recruiting class that could end up sending seven players into the first round of the 2014 NBA Draft. Michigan State brought back both Gary Harris and Adreian Payne, both of whom are potential lottery picks, putting the Spartans right back into the national title conversation.

Coach Cal’s talent vs. Tom Izzo’s game-planning. Yes, please.

And it may not even be the most memorable game of the night, as the nightcap of the Marathon pits Kansas against Duke. The Jayhawks were thought to be an afterthought heading into the year, as their lineup is as young on paper as anyone in the country. That all changed when Kansas got, ironically enough, younger with Andrew Wiggins’ commitment. That single talent rocketed them up preseason top 25’s, and created all kinds of intrigue as the Jayhawks get set to take on Coach K’s Blue Devils.

Duke will have plenty of talent, with Rodney Hood eligible and Rasheed Sulaimon back, but the headlining matchup will likely end up being Jabari Parker, who was labeled the best prospect since LeBron by Sports Illustrated, against Wiggins.

Bill Self and Wiggins vs. Coach K and Parker? This could be epic.

That’s not all, however, as ESPN will also be airing two more intriguing matchups. At 7 p.m., VCU will be taking on Virginia in one of the biggest contrasts in styles we will see this season. VCU runs ‘Havoc’, a full-court pressing system designed around steals, layups and threes. Virginia, on the other hand, wants to play as slowly as possible, packing in their defense and running 30 seconds off the clock every possession. To make things more intriguing, Shaka Smart and Tony Bennett coached together on the U19 team this summer.

When that game ends, Florida will be taking on Wisconsin, a tip that is scheduled for 9 p.m. The Gators are going to be a contender for the SEC title regardless of whether Chris Walker gets eligible, but Wisconsin should be pretty good next season as well. Expect a big year out of Sam Dekker.

That’s how the Marathon ends.

It starts the night before, with a 7 p.m. game between one of the stronger program’s in the MAC, Kent State, taking on a Temple team that will be in rebuilding mode in their first season in the AAC. That is followed up by a depleted Colorado State team squaring off with Gonzaga, who likely cost themselves at least five years of preseason hype by flaming out in the Round of 32 after earning a No. 1 seed last March.

The marathon officially starts at 11 p.m., with BYU heading down to Palo Alto to take on Stanford. The Cougars have one of the best scorers in the country in Tyler Haws, who averaged more than 20 points last season despite missing two years on his Mormon mission, while Stanford’s talent seems to have finally matured enough to make a run at an NCAA tournament berth.

That game will be followed by Western Kentucky visiting Wichita State, a 1 a.m. tip — midnight local time — between a loaded Shocker team coming off of a Final Four run and a Hilltopper team that has twice captured lightening in a bottle, winning the Sun Belt automatic bid the past two seasons. There is some intrigue there, although I fully expect Gregg Marshall’s team to walk all over WKU.

And then things get a bit methodical. It’s tough to find teams willing to play at all hours of the night, you know?

Akron visits Marathon stalwart St. Mary’s at 3 a.m., a game that would have been much more enticing before Matthew Dellavedova and Zeke Marshall graduated. New Mexico State visits Hawaii at 5 a.m., which may only be watchable for a repeat of this overpowering drop-step from 7-foot-5 Sim Bhullar:

source:

The 7 a.m. tip will feature Hartford visiting Andy Enfield-less Florida-Gulf Coast, entertaining only if #DunkCity gets their coffee. That’s followed by another NCAA tournament darling, La Salle, hosting Quinnipiac at 9 a.m.

LSU-UMass at 11 a.m. has a chance to be a game with major bubble implications, and the Minutemen have one of the most entertaining guards in the country to watch in Chaz Williams. The 1 p.m. tip doesn’t have quite as much going for it, as West Virginia — who finished below .500 last year and lost what seems like half their roster to transfer — takes on a Virginia Tech team that was a (bad) one-man show a year ago and lost that one-man, Erick Green.

South Carolina at Baylor at 3 p.m. could be interesting if Frank Martin’s talented recruiting class can have an immediate impact, but the talent infusion seems like more of a long-term play. Isaiah Austin and Cory Jefferson should be too much to handle.

At 5 p.m., NC State will visit Cincinnati in a relatively forgettable matchup between two teams that will be in a bit of a rebuilding mode. The Bearcats will rely quite heavily on Sean Kilpatrick this season as they try to make the tournament out of the AAC, while NC State is coming off a massively disappointing 2012-2013 season in which they lost CJ Leslie, Lorenzo Brown, Richard Howell and Scott Wood.

CBT Podcast: Jeff Goodman of ESPN joins to talk point guards, suspensions and injuries

unnamed-2
Leave a comment

Jeff Goodman of ESPN.com joined the podcast today to discuss Allonzo Trier, Mo Watson Jr., what O.G. Anunoby’s knee injury means for Indiana and the point guards you can trust in college hoops this season.

You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes, Stitcher and Audioboom

Bracketology: Resume, metrics have Villanova No. 1

VILLANOVA, PA - DECEMBER 03: Josh Hart #3 of the Villanova Wildcats reacts in front of Lamarr Kimble #0 of the Saint Joseph's Hawks in the first half at The Pavilion on December 3, 2016 in Villanova, Pennsylvania. The Villanova Wildcats defeated the Saint Joseph's Hawks 88-57. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)
Mitchell Leff/Getty Images
Leave a comment

Recently, the NCAA Men’s Basketball Selection Committee made public its intent to evaluate options for integrating additional analytics and metrics into its process for selecting and seeding teams for the NCAA tournament.  How that might eventually look we don’t know.  What metrics will be included?  Will there be any weighting for certain metrics (such as the current Ratings Percentage Index or RPI) over others?  It’s an interesting twist, although not necessarily that new.  Selection Committee members have had various data points at their fingertips for years.  How each chose to use (or not use) ratings such as BPI, KenPom, Sagarin, and others is unknown; none were a part of the “official” process and rarely discussed publicly.

The point today isn’t to have a lengthy discussion about the merits of various analytic tools.  Rather, it provides an opportunity to look at how a new system might look.  One of the concepts mentioned was the potential for a “composite” ranking that would factor in a given set of analytic metrics.  In the interest of today’s bracket update, here’s a look at some rankings and the “composite” for the top six teams on the seed list (data points were through games played on Tuesday).

The metrics included: RPI, NPI (Warren Nolan), ELO Chess, KenPom, Sagarin, and BPI.  Composite ranking is in parenthesis, based upon an average of these metrics.

  1. Villanova (2.33)
  2. Kansas (4.83)
  3. Baylor (9.00)
  4. UCLA (11.16)
  5. Kentucky (3.16)
  6. Gonzaga (6.50)

As you can see, the composite score would favor moving Kentucky and Gonzaga into spots two (2) and four (4) on the seed list, making them No. 1 seeds instead of Baylor and UCLA (in today’s bracket).  Those are not wrong conclusions.  Of course, metrics do not necessarily do an effective job of including actual results.  Example: UCLA won at Kentucky.  An individual result is only one factor (usually a small one) in a team’s overall resume.  But the disparity in numbers (11.16 to 3.16) suggests a notable difference between UK and UCLA.  How the Committee might discuss those two teams given the result vs. numbers would be interesting.

The more relevant takeaway here is that Villanova is No. 1 by a significant margin.  When you factor in the math, the difference between Villanova and Kentucky is a little larger than it looks.  Thus, the Wildcats remain entrenched as the overall No. 1 seed today by almost any measure, resume and otherwise.

In keeping with our theme, we used a similar process, including a metric called Strength of Record (SOR) to help decipher an uninspiring collection of bubble teams.  With that in mind, Kansas State and Wake Forest are the final two at-large entries.  It’s completely erratic near the bottom of the bracket, so this is far from definitive.  History suggests that may not change much.

UPDATED: January 19, 2017

Regarding bracketing principles, can read them for yourself at http://www.ncaa.com. For example: teams from the same conference may now meet before a Regional final, even if fewer than eight teams are selected. The goal is to keep as many teams as possible on their actual seed line.

FIRST FOUR PAIRINGS – Dayton (First Round)

  • Rhode Island vs. Kansas State | Midwest Region
  • Georgia vs. Wake Forest East Region
  • NEW ORLEANS vs. WEBER STATE | Midwest Region
  • MT. ST. MARY’S vs. MORGAN STATE | East Region

BRACKET PROJECTION …

EAST New York                     MIDWEST – Kansas City
Buffalo Tulsa
1) VILLANOVA 1) KANSAS
16) M.S. MARY’S / MORGAN ST 16) NEW ORLEANS / WEBER ST
8) Northwestern 8) Michigan State
9) MID TENNESSEE ST 9) Clemson
Buffalo Sacramento
5) Florida 5) CINCINNATI
12) VERMONT 12) Kansas St / Rhode Island
4) Virginia 4) OREGON
13) RICHMOND 13) NEW MEXICO ST
Milwaukee Greenville
6) MARYLAND 6) South Carolina
11) Georgia / Wake Forest 11) NC-WILMINGTON
3) Butler 3) North Carolina
14) FLA GULF COAST 14) WINTHROP
Orlando Salt Lake City
7) Indiana 7) Saint Mary’s
10) Seton Hall 10) TCU
2) FLORIDA STATE 2) Creighton
15) GA-SOUTHERN 15) BUCKNELL
WEST – San Jose SOUTH – Memphis
Sacramento Tulsa
1) UCLA 1) Baylor
16) TEXAS-SOUTHERN 16) UC-IRVINE
8) Dayton 8) USC
9) Virginia Tech 9) Arkansas
Orlando Salt Lake City
5) Purdue 5) Duke
12) AKRON 12) NEVADA
4) West Virginia 4) ARIZONA
13) CHATTANOOGA 13) VALPARAISO
Milwaukee Indianapolis
6) Wisconsin 6) Minnesota
11) California 11) ILLINOIS STATE
3) Notre Dame 3) Louisville
14) MONMOUTH 14) BELMONT
Salt Lake City Indianapolis
7) SMU 7) Xavier
10) Texas Tech 10) Iowa State
2) GONZAGA 2) KENTUCKY
15) NORTH DAKOTA ST 15) PRINCETON

NOTES on the BRACKET: Villanova is the No. 1 overall seed, followed by Kansas, Baylor, and UCLA

Last Four Byes (at large): Iowa State, Texas Tech, TCU, California

Last Four IN (at large): Georgia, Kansas State, Wake Forest, Rhode Island

First Four OUT (at large): VCU, Miami-FL, Pittsburgh, Michigan

Next four teams OUT (at large): Marquette, Wichita State, Illinois, Penn State

Breakdown by Conference …

ACC (9): FLORIDA STATE, North Carolina, Louisville, Notre Dame, Virginia, Duke, Clemson, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

Big 10 (7): MARYLAND, Purdue, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Indiana, Michigan State, Northwestern

Big 12 (7): KANSAS, Baylor, West Virginia, Iowa State, Texas Tech, TCU, Kansas State

Big East (5): VILLANOVA, Creighton, Butler, Xavier, Seton Hall

SEC (5): KENTUCKY, Florida, South Carolina, Arkansas, Georgia

Pac 12 (5): ARIZONA, UCLA, Oregon, USC, California

Atlantic 10 (3): RICHMOND, Dayton, Rhode Island

American (2): CINCINNATI, SMU

West Coast (2): GONZAGA, Saint Mary’s

Missouri Valley (1): ILLINOIS STATE

Mountain West (1): BOISE STATE

ONE BID LEAGUES: Monmouth (MAAC), Middle Tennessee State (C-USA), Georgia-Southern (SBELT), Princeton (IVY), Weber State (BSKY), Valparaiso (HORIZON), New Orleans (SLND), Chattanooga (STHN), UC-Irvine (BWEST), Akron (MAC), Florida Gulf Coast (ASUN), Belmont (OVC), UNC-Wilmington (CAA), Winthrop (BSO), Morgan State (MEAC), North Dakota State (SUM), New Mexico State (WAC), Vermont (AEAST), Bucknell (PAT), MT. ST. MARY’S (NEC), Texas-Southern (SWAC)

VIDEO: Tom Crean chokes up talking about O.G. Anunoby, Indiana win

HONOLULU, HI - NOVEMBER 11: Head coach Tom Crean of the Indiana Hoosiers paces the sideline during the first half of the second game of the Armed Forces Classic at the Stan Sheriff Center on November 11, 2016 in Honolulu, Hawaii. (Photo by Darryl Oumi/Getty Images)
Darryl Oumi/Getty Images
1 Comment

Indiana went through the gauntlet of emotions on Wednesday night.

First, one of their most important players, O.G. Anunoby, went down with what appears to be a serious knee injury midway through the first half. Then, the Hoosiers blow a big lead at Penn State. Finally, James Blackmon Jr. bailed them out with a game-winning, buzzer-beating three.

After the game, head coach Tom Crean got choked up talking about the victory:

RELATED: What’s wrong with Indiana?

“As the leader of these guys I’m excited about the way they played considering everything we went through in this game,” Crean said. “There were a lot of tears in that locker room because no one knew what was going on with one of their fallen brothers. And I had to leave a guy who was crying and that wasn’t easy. But we found a way to win the game so I’m proud of them for that.”

Crean gets a lot of heat from fans – both of Indiana and of Indiana’s rivals – but that was a genuine moment of anguish. It’s easy to forget that he’s a human being dealing with more job-related stress than you can imagine. He’s paid handsomely for it, but that doesn’t make always make it easier.

VIDEO: Fordham tops VCU at the horn in OT

In this Oct. 6, 2015, photo, VCU men's NCAA college basketball coach Will Wade talks to his team during practice at the Franklin Street Gym in Richmond Va. VCU surged at the end of last season, winning the Atlantic 10 tournament to earn its fifth consecutive trip to the NCAA tournament. (Mark Gormus/Richmond Times-Dispatch via AP) MANDATORY CREDIT (
Mark Gormus/Richmond Times-Dispatch via AP
Leave a comment

Down 12 at halftime, VCU needed a second-half comeback to force overtime at Fordham.

There was nothing VCU could do to counteract Fordham’s game-winner.

Antwoine Anderson’s jumper as time expired in overtime gave Fordham a 69-67 victory Wednesday night.

After winning eight-straight games, VCU has now dropped back-to-back games with a loss to Davidson coming last weekend. The loss will likely bring up the same questions that were there after a less-than-steallar non-conference showing for VCU, given Fordham had lost 10 of 12 coming into the night.

Allonzo Trier suspended after failing PED test

Arizona head coach Sean Miller talks with guard Allonzo Trier (11) during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game against Northwestern State in Tucson, Ariz., Sunday, Nov. 22, 2015. (Mamta Popat/Arizona Daily Star via AP)  ALL LOCAL TELEVISION OUT; PAC-12 OUT; MANDATORY CREDIT; GREEN VALLEY NEWS OUT
Mamta Popat/Arizona Daily Star via AP
1 Comment

The suspension that Arizona guard Allonzo Trier is currently serving is due to positive test for performance-enhancing drugs during the preseason.

Trier, who has missed the first 18 games of the season, confirmed the news with a statement released late on Wednesday night that said he has “never knowingly taken a banned substance.”

According to a statement released by the university, Trier has been cleared by the NCAA after an appeal, but he cannot suit up for the Wildcats until the drug is completely out of his system.

“After finding out that I was given a banned substance by a well-intentioned, but misguided person not associated with the University after an injury, I presented this information to the NCAA,” Trier said in the statement. “The NCAA agreed that I had no knowledge of receiving the substance and my eligibility was restored. Although I can practice and travel with the team, I am not allowed to resume playing in games until the substance completely leaves my body even at a trace amount.”

There is no timetable for his return, but the door is open for a return.

As a freshman last season, Trier averaged 14.8 points and shot 36.4 percent from three. He was Arizona’s best isolation scorer and their leading returning scorer.

Without Trier, Arizona has looked like a Pac-12 title contender. They are 16-2 on the season and undefeated in league play heading into their games at the LA schools this weekend.