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Upset Watch: Five possibilities to keep in mind

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One of the most entertaining aspects of the NCAA tournament are the upsets that are bound to occur every year. Last season’s event featured a pair of 15-seeds winning on the same day, as Lehigh beat Duke and Norfolk State edged out Missouri. There’s also the history of at least one 12-seed knocking off a 5-seed, with that happening in every tournament of the new millenium but two (2000 and 2007). So what are some games you should keep an eye on when it comes to possible upsets? Here are five.

1. (11) Belmont over (6) Arizona (West)

Arizona has more size than Belmont in the paint, but this upset possibility focuses on what can happen on the perimeter. The Wildcats’ perimeter defense, specifically their defending of the three-pointer, has been a concern for much of the season. Opponents shoot 36% from beyond the arc, and given Belmont’s ability to hit the shot this is a concern for Arizona. Kerron Johnson and company make 38.6% of their three-pointers, and they score nearly 33% of their points via the shot. Rebounding is definitely a concern for Rick Byrd’s team in this matchup, but if they can convert three-pointers at a rate near their numbers for the season look out.

2. (10) Colorado over (7) Illinois (East)

Illinois’ reliance on the three-point shot is no secret, but in the Buffaloes they drew a team that’s done a good job of defending the shot. Colorado limits opponents to 32.3% from beyond the arc, a mark that ranks second in the Pac-12. The biggest concern for Illinois is rebounding, an area in which they’ve struggled all season long. Opponents manage to grab nearly 34% of their missed shots on the season, and with Colorado boasting one of the nation’s best rebounders in Andre Roberson this is an area the Buffaloes can exploit. And look for Spencer Dinwiddie, their best perimeter defender, to match up with Brandon Paul for much of the night.

(CLICK HERE: To browse through the rest of our 2013 NCAA Tournament Previews)

3. (12) Oregon over (5) Oklahoma State (Midwest)

The Ducks were shown no respect by the selection committee in regards to their seeding. But the committee made up for that by placing them in San Jose against the 5-seed Oklahoma State. Oregon has athletic wings such as seniors Carlos Emory and freshman Damyean Dotson, which will help them when it comes to matching up with Le’Bryan Nash. And with their size inside the Ducks have the tools needed to exploit Oklahoma State’s defensive rebounding issues. The concern: Marcus Smart. Oregon’s small at the point with Dominic Artis and Johnathan Loyd, so they’ll need to be very good in the areas listed above in order to win.

4. (11) Bucknell over (6) Butler (East)

Dave Paulsen’s team has won 12 of its last 13 games, and with senior center Mike Muscala leading the way the Bison are more than capable of doing some damage this week. With Cameron Ayers and Bryson Johnson on the perimeter Bucknell shoots 36% from three, but given the presence of Muscala and their ability to convert inside of the arc it isn’t as if the Bison are in danger of becoming overly reliant on the shot. In order to beat the Bulldogs, Bucknell will have to do two things extremely well: don’t allow Rotnei Clarke to go off, and keep Butler off the offensive glass. Butler rebounds nearly 37% of their missed shots on the season.

5. (13) South Dakota State over (4) Michigan (South) 

Yes Michigan made an appearance on the list of ten teams capable of winning the national title. But that doesn’t mean the Wolverines can’t be picked off in their first game. This game matches two of the nation’s best point guards (Michigan’s Trey Burke and South Dakota State’s Nate Wolters), so it should come as no surprise that these are two of the most efficient offensive teams in the country. If the Jackrabbits are to pull off the upset, which looks to be a tough chore if you’re a fan of advanced stats, they need to do two things: keep Burke out of the lane (far easier said than done) and win the rebounding battle.

Four other games to consider: 

– (11) Middle Tennessee (provided they beat Saint Mary’s) over (6) Memphis (West)

– (12) California over (5) UNLV (East)

– (10) Cincinnati over (7) Creighton (Midwest)

– (13) Montana over (4) Syracuse (East)

One game to be wary of: (11) Minnesota over (6) UCLA (South)

This is the game many latched onto almost immediately, so much so that Vegas has the Gophers down as a three-point favorite. But even with UCLA’s poor rebounding (Minnesota is the best offensive rebounding team in the country) and the broken foot suffered by Jordan Adams, calm down. Minnesota enters the contest having lost seven of its last ten games, and while that came against Big Ten competition it isn’t a lock that the proverbial light bulb will turn on for Tubby Smith’s team. The Gophers certainly have some advantages they can exploit, but this is by no means a guarantee.

Raphielle also writes for the NBE Basketball Report and can be followed on Twitter at @raphiellej.

VIDEO: Boise State robbed of insane, buzzer-beating win on incorrect timing by officials

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It looked like James Webb III of Boise State had hit the season’s craziest buzzer-beater.

With 0.8 seconds left, he caught an in-bounds pass on the run on the right wing, hoisted up a prayer of a three and watched as it banked it as the buzzer sounded.

It’s pretty fantastic:

And it also clearly left his hands before time expired, but there was a reason for that. According to the officials, the clock (for the road team, mind you) did not start when the ball was caught.

They were right.

Where they were wrong was determining that it took more than a second for Webb to catch and release the shot, meaning that they were wrong to waive off the bucket.

This awesome slo-mo clip of the shot from Matt Stephens of the Coloradoan is all the evidence I need, but if you need more, Sportscenter anchor Scott Van Pelt clocked it at 0.7 seconds:

The game would go to overtime, where Colorado State would go on to win, 97-93.

As you can imagine, Boise State players and coaches were livid with the call.

“I hope it’s not a situation where you get an apology later but don’t get the win. I don’t understand it,” head coach Leon Rice said in a radio interview after the game. “I hope they got it right somehow, some way. I don’t know. It didn’t look right to me, but I’m not the official.”

This comes just four days after officials blew a call in a game between New Mexico and San Diego State that allowed the Aztecs to force overtime and eventually beat the Lobos. (That call may have determined the outcome of the Mountain West regular season title, to boot.)

New Mexico was essentially told, “my bad”, but the league as a result.

And Boise State will probably get the same treatment despite the fact that, if the league determines that the referees botched this call as well, the tame technically was over then.

Will they have the guts to award the Broncos a road win that they earned and deserve?

I doubt it.

UPDATE: Here’s a statement from the officiating crew:

Tulsa rallies to hand No. 16 SMU 1st home loss 82-77

Tulsa guard James Woodard (10) shoots a free throw during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game against SMU Wednesday, Feb. 10, 2016, in Dallas.  Tulsa won 82-77. (AP Photo/LM Otero)
(AP Photo/LM Otero)
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DALLAS (AP) Shaquille Harrison had 21 points, Pat Birt hit a crucial 3-pointer and scored 12 of his 17 points after halftime and Tulsa rallied from eight points down in the second half to beat No. 16 SMU 82-77 on Wednesday night.

Nic Moore scored 27 to lead the Mustangs (20-3, 9-3 American Athletic). They lost for the first time in 13 home games and dropped to 2-3 since their 18-0 start to a season that won’t include postseason play because of NCAA sanctions.

Moore twice hit 3-pointers to pull SMU within a point in the final minute, but Birt answered the first with a 3 and James Woodard followed the second with two of his six free throws in the final 1:04.

The Golden Hurricane (16-8, 8-4) ended a four-game losing streak against SMU with their eighth win in 10 games since an 0-2 conference start.