East Region Preview: Indiana didn’t get Indy, which is a good thing?

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Indiana didn’t get Indianapolis.

The Hoosiers lost to Wisconsin in the semifinals of the Big Ten tournament, meaning that they sat at home on their couch and watched as Louisville beat Notre Dame and then Syracuse to win the Big East tournament title. As a result, the Cardinals played their way into the No. 1 overall seed, meaning that they got a preferential locale and a spot in the Midwest Region.

So Indiana heads East, meaning they could end up playing Syracuse in DC in the Sweet 16, a game that could feature more orange in the stands than red.

That said, when you look at the East Region, it’s tough not to think that the Hoosiers may have actually lucked out. The Midwest is the Region of Doom, where the East Region is more talented-but-enigmatic. NC State? Syracuse? UNLV? They won’t strike fear into Indiana’s heart. Neither will No. 2 seed Miami, or No. 3 seed Marquette. Butler, the No. 6 seed in the East, could end up being dropped by a Bucknell team that matches up really well with them.

All things considered, Indiana got a pretty good draw.

Here’s your East Region breakdown:

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Three story lines to watch

  • We could end up getting a conference matchup in the round of 32 if Butler and Marquette both advance, which is not guarantee. At some point this week, Butler is expected to announce that they are leaving the Atlantic 10 and joining up with the Catholic 7 in the new Big East. Throw in the fact that, you know, they’re Butler, and there will be a lot of hype surrounding that game. Oh, and who can forget this game?
  • Will UNLV prove that it deserved the No. 5 seed gift the committee gave them? Most agree that the Rebels probably got overseeded by the committee. Were they really within two natural seed lines of New Mexico and three natural seed lines better than Colorado State? That’s a tough call. You know what else is tough? Drawing Cal in the opening round in a game that will be played in San Jose. I guess it all evens out.
  • James Madison’s leading scorer became the first player to be arrested before tournament play starts. Who’s next?

The Elite 8 matchup is…?: No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 2 Miami

When I actually sit down to fill out my bracket, things may end up shaking out differently, but I’m just not sure who in the East is going to be able to take down IU or UM. I know the Hoosiers went 3-3 down the stretch, but they were also arguably the best team in the country before then, and I’m not quite sure how much has changed since. Victor Oladipo, the nation’s preeiminent role-player, has been so good at what he does this season that people have completely forgotten about the fact that Cody Zeller is the best post scorer in the country. He’s surrounded by shooters, he’s getting more aggressive by the day and he won’t have to deal with the overly in-depth scouting reports of the Big Ten anymore.

I have a theory about making the Final Four. I think you need four things: a quality point guard, size up front, the ability to lock down defensively, and a stud to give the ball to in the clutch. Miami is 4-4 on that list. It would be nice if Reggie Johnson hopped out of the funk that he’s been in recently, but the bottom-line is that there is a reason that Miami won the dual-ACC titles. Some of it is Ryan Kelly’s injury and North Carolina’s struggles early-on, but a lot of it has to do with the fact that the Hurricanes are actually a really good basketball team and Shane Larkin is the real deal at the point.

Final Four sleeper: Illinois

I’m not betting this will happen. I’m certainly not going to have it in my bracket. But hear me out. Illinois has proven they can win big games, knocking off Gonzaga in Spokane and Indiana at home. They are a dangerous three-point shooting team on the nights that they get hot. They can spread the floor on Miami in the round of 32 and take away the effectiveness of their big men. Neither Butler nor Marquette is overpowering. And they’ve already beaten Indiana. So you’re telling me there’s a chance?

Best opening round matchups

  • No. 8 NC State vs. No. 9 Temple: The Wolfpack have a ton of talent and an overpowering front line. But Temple has a kid named Khalif Wyatt that is as clutch as anyone in the country.
  • No. 6 Butler vs. No. 11 Bucknell: This is going to be a great watch for x’s-and-o’s junkies. Both teams are exceedingly well-coached and execute their offense. but how does Butler deal with Mike Muscala, Bucknell’s 6-foot-11, double-double machine?

Matchups to root for

  • No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 6 Butler: It might have been cooler if this were to take place in Indianapolis again. ‘Big brother’ gets a shot at revenge after a former walk-on for ‘little brother’ hit a game-winner in their first matchup.

The studs you know about

  • Victor Oladipo and Cody Zeller, Indiana: Oladipo was a Player of the Year candidate. Zeller was the Preseason Player of the Year. Both are all-americans.
  • Anthony Bennett, UNLV: The Rebel big man has deep range and dunks as ferociously as anyone in the country, but his dominance only comes in spurts.
  • Shane Larkin, Miami: He’s the engine that makes Miami run, and may be the nation’s best point guard this side of Trey Burke.
  • Allen Crabbe, Cal: It’s a shame if you haven’t seen this Rip Hamilton-clone play. He’s liable to go for 30 on any given night.

The studs the nation will find out about

  • Mike Muscala, Bucknell: The Bison big man is a throwback, low-post scorer. He can go over either shoulder and score with either hand, he’s got a soft touch on his jump shot, he blocks shots, be rebounds and he’s tough. Throw in the fact that he’s 6-foot-11 and a rapper, and we’ve got ourselves a tourney hero if Bucknell can get out of the first weekend.
  • Khalif Wyatt, Temple: It will take a Herculean effort from Wyatt to get out of the first weekend of the tournament, but he’s up for the task. He’s a slow-footed, big-bodied two-guard that lumbers his way around, using his strength and craftiness to make some ridiculous shots.
  • Will Cherry and Kareem Jamar, Montana: The Grizzlies have a very, very good back court.

Upsets that ARE happening

  • No. 14 Davidson over No. 3 Marquette: Davidson has size. They execute offensively. They can shoot the ball. They are a veteran group that went into Kansas City and beat Kansas last season. Believe it.
  • No. 11 Bucknell over No. 6 Butler: Heresy and sacrilege, I know, but Bucknell might be the nation’s best mid-major program that no one pays attention to.

Upsets that AREN’T happening

  • No. 13 Montana over No. 4 Syracuse: I love Will Cherry and Kareem Jamar, but when people talk about the Grizzlies winning this game, ask them about Mathias Ward. They’ll say, ‘Who is that?’, and then you can say, ‘He’s Montana’s leading scorer who isn’t playing because of a foot injury.’

CBT Predictions: I just don’t see anyone in this region picking off Indiana.

You can find Rob on twitter @RobDauster.

Elite 8 Preview: Sunday’s picks, predictions, betting lines and channels

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No. 4 FLORIDA (-3) vs. No. 7 SOUTH CAROLINA, 2:20 p.m., CBS: If you’re a fan of uptempo, wide-open basketball, of teams running beautiful offensive sets, spreading the floor and using the three-point line like it should be used, this game probably is not going to be for you.

This is going to be as physical and as tough as any game you watched all season long. Both the Gamecocks and the Gators are top five teams in defensive efficiency, and both of them get out and pressure defensively, Florida in the full court and South Carolina in the half court. They shun shooters for the toughest athletes on their roster. They pride themselves in being tougher, both mentally and physically, than whoever they end up playing.

And they think that a game played in the 50s is beautiful basketball.

So bet the under if you can.

But the pick I like is Florida here. Their ability to defend is going to make it very difficult for South Carolina’s offensive renaissance to continue, and their guards will be able to make the plays offensively that South Carolina dares you to make.

PREDICTION: Florida (-3)

No. 1 NORTH CAROLINA (-2.5) vs. No. 2 KENTUCKY, 5:05 p.m. CBS: This is the rematch we all wanted, right?

Ever since that day three months ago, when Kentucky got 47 points from Malik Monk in a 103-102 win over North Carolina in Las Vegas, I don’t think there is a soul in the country that would have told you otherwise.

There are two major differences between these two teams now and those two teams then. The biggest is the presence of Theo Pinson, North Carolina’s best perimeter defender. Pinson has dealt foot injuries all season long, and when these two got together in December, he was not yet healthy enough to play. I assume that he will draw the assignment of Malik Monk, chasing around the man that had definitively been Kentucky’s most dangerous scorer. Pinson will make life more difficult for Monk than it was the first time around.

But is he going to spend the entire game on him?

Because after De’Aaron Fox’s 39-point outburst against UCLA on Friday night, it’s fair to wonder whether or not Pinson may be better suited to taking on the task of keeping Fox from getting into the paint. Whatever Roy Williams opts to do, the bottom line is pretty simple — if he needs to find a way to keep Kentucky’s back court in check.

The other difference between now and then is that Bam Adebayo has been playing up to his potential for the past six weeks. He was solid earlier in the year. He can be dominant at times now, and that is going to be critical for the Wildcats, who are going to be outsized by a significant margin by UNC’s front line. The Tar Heels lead the nation in offensive rebounding percentage, and they are one of the only elite teams that thrives playing two bigs at the same time. In other words, one of Wenyen Gabriel or Derek Willis are going to have to deal with Isaiah Hicks, Kennedy Meeks and Tony Bradley. That’s a matchup that favors UNC, which is why Aebayo is going to have to play up to his size.

In the end, I think Pinson’s presence and North Carolina’s size advantage will be too much.

But if Fox and Monk play their game, they can carry Kentucky a long, long way.

PREDICTION: North Carolina (2.5)

Lawrence Police Department trolls Bill Self following Elite Eight loss

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Kansas had its season ended with a 74-60 loss to No. 3 seed Oregon.

The Jayhawks were the top seed in the South region. They were playing a de facto at the Sprint Center, which is 40 miles away from the school’s campus. As you can imagine, fans in Lawrence were likely unhappy, especially since it’s the second year in a row KU has been bounced one-game shy of the Final Four.

The Lawrence Police Department, while prepping for potential riots, couldn’t help tweeting a joke at the future Hall of Famer’s expense.

Bill Self’s teams have been eliminated seven times in the Elite Eight during his tenure at Kansas. He’s led the Jayhawks to a pair of Final Fours, winning the national championship in 2008.

Kansas finished the season 31-5.

Gonzaga passes the title of best program without a Final Four to Xavier in win

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In 1999, Gonzaga was not yet “Gonzaga”.

A No. 10 seed in just their third NCAA tournament, the Zags won three games against high-major competition, coming within a possession of reaching the Final Four in a loss to No. 1 seed UConn.

UConn, at that point, was one of the best programs in the country under Jim Calhoun, but the knock on the Huskies at that point was that they couldn’t win the big one. They had been to three Elite 8s and three more Sweet 16s in the previous eight seasons, but it wasn’t until they knocked off that Gonzaga team that they finally were playing on college basketball’s biggest stage.

For 18 years, Gonzaga tried and failed to get to a Final Four, becoming one of the nation’s premier basketball programs without having the postseason success to legitimize themselves in the eyes of idiots around the country. That ended on Saturday night in San Jose, as No. 1 seed Gonzaga ended No. 11 Xavier’s thrilling run to the Elite 8 and passing on the torch that UConn passed to them.

Xavier can now claim the title of the best basketball program that has yet to make a Final Four, which is both a compliment and a curse.

The Musketeers have been to the NCAA tournament 25 times since the bracket expanded to 64 teams in 1985. They’ve been to nine Sweet 16s and three Elite 8s. They had a winning record in NCAA tournament play until Saturday’s loss and now lay claim to the title of the team with the most NCAA tournament wins without an appearance in the Final Four.

Xavier is going to get there eventually. Chris Mack is one of the best coaches in the business. Hell, if Trevon Bluiett and Edmond Sumner both return to school, it could very well be next season that they snap that streak. It’s coming at some point.

I don’t even think it’s an insult to say this about Xavier. I don’t think it’s a shot at the program or the coaches that have come through it. Getting to the Final Four is hard. Bill Self is a lead-pipe lock to be a Hall of Famer, and he’s been to just two Final Fours in his career. He’s 2-7 in the Elite 8, and if Derrick Rose could make his free throws, the discussion of just how good of a coach Self is if he can’t win a title would be raging with the Jayhawks flaming out of the tournament on Saturday night.

But as with Gonzaga and UConn before them, Xavier is going to have that monkey on their back every time they suit up in March.

VIDEO: Tyler Dorsey hits dagger after dagger in upset of Kansas

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Tyler Dorsey is building himself quite the reputation for being a big-shot maker.

He hit the game-winner that got Oregon to the Sweet 16. He hit two threes at the end of the first half to push Oregon’s lead to 11 points over Kansas. And he hit this three, the dagger through the heart of Kansas:

Dorsey finished with 27 points. He’s scored at least 20 points in every game since the NCAA tournament began.

No. 3 Oregon heading to first Final Four in 78 years

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Oregon, the No. 3 seed in the Midwest region, made what looked to be a smooth path to Phoenix into a bumpy road. But after 78 years, the Ducks are going back to the Final Four, defeating No. 1 Kansas, 74-60, in Elite Eight on Friday night in Kansas City.

Everything went right for the Ducks in the first half. Josh Jackson was called for two fouls in the less than three minutes. The Jayhawks were limited in transition. Tyler Dorsey’s two 3-pointers in the final 40 seconds gave them a double-digit lead at halftime. Oregon stretched it to as many as 18 in the second. Kansas couldn’t buy a basket from three (a far cry from the 3-point barrage it put on Purdue two nights earlier). When the Jayhawks drove to the basket, it was Jordan Bell (11 points, 13 rebounds and eight blocks) who either blocked or altered their shots.

However, the Ducks not only left the door open for the Jayhawks, they held it open. Kansas’ comeback attempt was a mix drink that was equal parts KU putting the clamps on defensively, Oregon playing a bit of hero ball, and the Ducks playing not to lose instead of to win. Up six with less than two minutes remaining, Dorsey (27 points) buried a dagger 3-pointer that all but sealed the win — and a spot in next week’s Final Four — for the Ducks.

Oregon will play the winner of the South region, which will either be No. 1 North Carolina or No. 2 Kentucky on Saturday.

The slogan of the NCAA Tournament is “The Road to the Final Four”.

Outside of Duke, the runaway preseason favorite, and it’s months-long narrative of “Is Duke back?”, you could make the case there wasn’t a Final Four contender with a journey filled with more ups and downs than Oregon.

Weeks following a season-ending loss to Oklahoma in the Elite Eight, Oregon learned that both Dillon Brooks and Tyler Dorsey would return to school for the next season. In July, Dylan Ennis was granted a sixth-year of eligibility. With Chris Boucher and Jordan Bell returning, and Payton Pritchard joining the program, the Ducks were an easy choice for a preseason Final Four pick.

Brooks’ offseason foot surgery — and the recovery that followed — raised concern about whether or not Oregon could fully reach its preseason potential, entering conference play without a notable win. Brooks’ Pac-12 Player of the Year season put to rest the status of his foot, leading the Ducks to a 16-2 Pac-12 record.

Hours before Oregon was set to battle with Arizona, it was announced that Chris Boucher had torn his ACL and would be out for the remainder of the season. Not only could this have played a role in the team’s seeding by the selection committee, but Boucher offered more than rim protection, as he helped space the floor given his ability to step out and shoot from the perimeter.

After fending off a good fight from Iona, the Ducks looked to be part of a Rhode Island’s magical postseason run. Tyler Dorsey ended that. In the Sweet 16, Oregon was matchup with Michigan, dubbed as the team of destiny. Bell and Dorsey, Oregon’s two tournament stars, stepped up in critical moments once again. Slated as an underdog for the second straight game, Oregon proved its Final Four worth by handing Kansas its worst tournament defeat of the Bill Self era in a regional final game that was played 40 miles away from the KU campus.

“I’m happy for our team,” Oregon head coach Dana Altman said following the game. “I’m happy for, as I mentioned, our university and our state. It’s been a long time coming and now we just need to go continue to play well.”

For Oregon, its road to the Final Four has come full circle.