No. 5 Georgetown entered Wednesday night’s trip to Philly to take on Villanova as the hottest team in the country: 11 straight wins, a streak that saw the Hoyas win at Notre Dame, beat Louisville and Marquette at home, and then go on the road and take care of Cincinnati, Syracuse and UConn in the span of 12 days.
It was enough to not only give the Hoyas into sole possession of first place in the Big East, but put them into the conversation for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. There were outlets that had Georgetown as a No. 1 seed as of Wednesday, an idea that came crashing down when the Wildcats knocked off Georgetown, 67-57.
This came just one night after Indiana lost at home to Ohio State. And three days after Michigan State lost their third game in a row. And a week after Duke lost to Virginia and Michigan lost to Penn State and Florida lost to Tennessee.
Put it all together, and here we sit, just 11 days away from Selection Sunday, and we don’t have a single team that has clinched a No. 1 seed.
Part of the reason for that is there really aren’t any profiles that can stand up to being a one seed if that team lost their next game, but the other issue is that there is just no way to feel comfortable projecting any team to win out. And I’m not talking about winning their conference tournament, because trying to project who wins the Big Ten or the Big East tournament this season is foolish. It’s a crapshoot.
I’m talking about this week.
Back to my point, the perfect example for how upside-down this season has been is Gonzaga. The Zags are currently No. 1 in both polls by a wide margin — they got a combined 80 of the 96 possible first-place votes — but they are unlikely to end up getting one of those No. 1 seeds.
Think about it like this: everyone except Joe Lunardi has the Zags as a borderline No. 1 seed if the season ended today. That’s great, but the issue is that there is nothing that they can do to add to their profile. Beat Santa Clara? Meh. Get a win over BYU and St. Mary’s in the title game? How much good can a win over a bubble team do?
Now look at Michigan. They may not be a No. 1 seed today, but if they beat Indiana at home tomorrow and then get wins over, hypothetically, Illinois, Michigan State and Indiana on their way to a Big Ten tournament title, they have to be a No. 1 seed, right? What about if Kansas wins at Baylor on Saturday and then knocks off Kansas State in the Big 12 title game? Or what if Georgetown knocks off Syracuse on Saturday and then lands wins over Louisville and Marquette as they make a run in the Big East tournament? And how about if New Mexico, who has the No. 2 RPI in the country and won the second or third toughest league in the country by multiple games, picks up a couple of quality wins en route to the MWC tournament title?
The only certainty? All four No. 1 seeds are going to be determined by who plays well during Championship Week.
Having said that, would anyone be surprised is all four of those leagues had a cinderella make a run to the league title? Does a WCC tournament title earn the Zags a No. 1 seed if every other contender loses next week?
We won’t know for 11 days, and there will be plenty of arguments to be had during that time.
And when Selection Sunday finally does get here and the brackets do come out, I have a feeling that’s when the real No. 1 seed arguments will begin.
You can find Rob on twitter @RobDauster.