Miami v Duke

Latest NCAA tourney projections: Duke’s a 1, but who else?


After another wild weekend of college hoops, one thing is certain.  We can expect the unexpected.  Which should make for an incredible month of March.

Take the top seed line.  Indiana remains in control of its current No. 1 seed position.  The other three spots still have some wiggle room – although based on Ryan Kelly’s return performance Saturday against Miami-FL, the Duke Blue Devils appear headed for yet another top seed on Selection Sunday.  In this update, Gonzaga and Kansas grab the other two No. 1 slots.  Miami, Georgetown, Louisville, New Mexico, Michigan State, and Michigan are close behind.  Remember, there are only four spots on each seed line.  Someone has to be number nine or ten on the seed list (s-curve).  And the order could easily change.  Throughout the bracket, these final two weeks will help decide the starting position for several teams.

The bottom of the bracket is no less uncertain.  This past Saturday, six teams sitting directly on the bubble lost.  So in some ways, not a lot changed.  The newest addition to the bracket is Boise State.  After beating Colorado State, the Broncos resume is tournament worthy with two games to play.  As a side note, Boise is a true 11 seed in the bracket but had to be placed on the 12 line because of various conflicts and bracketing principles.  It’s not uncommon for this to happen.  Many of the teams in the middle of the bracket are tightly bunched and while one or two seed lines may appear to be a big difference, that’s not necessarily true.

The final couple of at-large spots in the Field of 68 could be argued for hours.  That’s why this week’s games and those in conference tournament play may prove more important than ever.  For now, the final at-large spots belong to Iowa State, Villanova, Virginia, and Tennessee.  Those four are paired in the First Four – with winners headed to matchups in the East and West Regions. Kentucky, Baylor, Alabama, Massachusetts, and Arkansas are among the first teams outside the bracket.

Note: The bracket update does not include the Baylor-Texas game on Monday evening.  That game will be factored into our next update. Enjoy the ride to Selection Sunday.

Teams in CAPS represent the projected AUTOMATIC bid based on current standings. Exceptions are made for teams that use an abbreviation (UTEP, BYU, etc). Records are for games against Division I teams only.

FIRST FOUR PAIRINGS – Dayton (First Round)

  • Villanova vs. Tennessee | East Region
  • Iowa State vs. Virginia | West Region
  • NORFOLK STATE vs. SOUTHERN | South Region


EASTWashington, DC                         MIDWESTIndianapolis
Philadelphia Dayton
1) Duke 1) INDIANA
8) Butler 8) NC State
9) MEMPHIS 9) Missouri
Dayton San Jose
5) Ohio State 5) Arizona
12) Villanova / Tennessee 12) AKRON
4) Oklahoma State 4) Syracuse
Auburn Hills Kansas City
11) Temple 11) Saint Mary’s
3) Michigan State 3) Kansas State
Lexington Philadelphia
7) Colorado State 7) Minnesota
10) Oklahoma 10) Wichita State
2) Louisville 2) GEORGETOWN
SOUTH – Dallas WEST – Los Angeles
Kansas City Salt Lake
8) San Diego State 8) North Carolina
9) Cincinnati 9) CREIGHTON
Salt Lake San Jose
12) MID TENNESSEE ST 12) Boise State
4) Wisconsin 4) Marquette
Austin Auburn Hills
6) Notre Dame 6) Pittsburgh
11) La Salle 11) Iowa State / Virginia
3) FLORIDA 3) Michigan
Lexington Austin
7) Illinois 7) VCU
10) Colorado 10) California

NOTES on the BRACKET: Indiana is the No. 1 overall seed followed by Duke, Gonzaga, and Kansas. Next in line are Miami-FL, New Mexico, Georgetown, Louisville.

Last Five teams in (at large): Boise State, Iowa State, Villanova, Virginia, Tennessee

First Five teams out (at large): Kentucky, Baylor, Alabama, Massachusetts, Arkansas

Next Five teams out (at large): Maryland, Mississippi, Iowa, Southern Miss, Arizona State

Breakdown by Conference …

Big East (8): Louisville, Syracuse, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Villanova

Big Ten (7): Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Illinois

Mountain West (5): San Diego State, UNLV, New Mexico, Colorado State, Boise State

Pac 12 (5): Arizona, Colorado, UCLA, Oregon, California

Big 12 (5): Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Iowa State

Atlantic 10 (5): Butler, VCU, Temple, La Salle, Saint Louis

ACC (5): Duke, NC State, North Carolina, Miami-FL, Virginia

SEC (3): Missouri, Florida, Tennessee

Missouri Valley (2): Creighton, Wichita State

West Coast (2): Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s

Conference USA (1): Memphis


PLAYER OF THE YEAR POWER RANKINGS: Denzel Valentine claims the top spot

Denzel Valentine
AP Photo
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1. Denzel Valentine, Michigan State: I mean, is this really a surprise for anyone at this point?The kid is averaging 19.9 points, 8.9 boards and 8.6 assists and shooting 42.6 percent from three. He has two triple-doubles where he scored 29 points. His “off night” came when he went for 17 points, six boards and five assists in a win over Providence. And he’s doing all this as Michigan State has climbed their way into the top three. This decision was not difficult.

2. Kris Dunn, Providence: He was the best player in the country entering the season. He’s probably still the best player in the country at this point in the season; his fall from No. 1 has less to do with him than it does what the other guy has done this season. Dunn’s number are about what you would have expected this season — 19.0 points, 6.7 assists, 6.1 boards, 3.7 steals — but what solidified him in this spot was what he did down the stretch in the win over Arizona, notching 11 points and two assists as the Frairs used a 15-7 run in the final 4:30 to win.

3. Michael Gbinije, Syracuse: There hasn’t been a more surprising team in the country than Syracuse this season, and their best player has been the former Duke transfer, Gbinije. Through the 6-0 start for the Orange, he is averaging 19.7 points, 4.2 assists and 2.8 steals while shooting 51.6 percent from three on a team that is relying on the three-ball to win them games. He played his best ball last week during the Battle 4 Atlantis, where he led the Orange to the title with wins over UConn and Texas A&M. The Orange look like they are the real deal this year, and Gbinije’s emergence as a full-fledged star at the point guard spot is the biggest reason why.

4. Tyler Ulis, Kentucky: We saw how good Ulis is when he went for 18 points, six assists, four boards, two steals and no turnovers in the win over Duke in the Champions Classic. But we saw just how valuable he is to this Kentucky team on Monday night when he sat out with an elbow injury. The Wildcats and 15 turnovers and eight assists while struggling to put away Illinois State at home. With point guards, you don’t usually understand their impact until they aren’t available..

5. Grayson Allen, Duke: Allen cooled off a bit last week after his torrid start to the season, “only” averaging 18.0 points, 5.0 boards and 3.5 assists as the Blue Devils rolled over Utah State and Yale. On the season, he’s posting numbers that are positively J.J. Redick-ian: 22.5 points while shooting 48.6 percent from three. If he wasn’t atrocious when Duke lost to Kentucky at the Champions Classic — their biggest game of the season — he might actually be the Player of the Year at this point.

6. Buddy Hield, Oklahoma: Hield has lived up to the hype that he had entering the season, averaging 22.0 points and 5.5 boards while shooting 52.4 percent from three to start the season. The Oklahoma star struggled in the win over Wisconsin, but he went for 30 points as the Sooners went into Memphis and knocked off the Tigers earlier this season.

7. Wayne Selden, Kansas: Is Wayne Selden — dare I say it — starting to live up to his potential? Through six games this season, the answer is, unequivocally, yes. He’s averaging 17.0 points, 3.0 assists and 3.0 boards. He’s shooting 58.6 percent from three. He was the best player for the Jayhawks in their come-from-behind win over Vanderbilt in the Maui Invitational. He’s playing with confidence. He’s playing like a go-to guy. He’s playing like the Wayne Selden that was supposed to show up on campus two years ago. If he can do this consistently, the Jayhawks are a different team.

8. Georges Niang, Iowa State: Iowa State is in a bit of an interesting situation. They’re rolling over their opponents, having beaten three high-major teams in their first five games, but their best win is probably over Chattanooga of the SoCon. In other words, they really haven’t been tested like, say, Kansas or Michigan has been. That said, Niang’s numbers under new head coach Steve Prohm are as good as they ever were under Fred Hoiberg: 16.8 points, 5.6 boards, 4.0 assists, 2.0 turnovers with shooting splits of 51.6/41/2/92.9. We should still be in a holding pattern with Niang — and the Cyclones in general — until we see them play some stronger competition, but the early returns on the Prohm era have been terrific.

9. Ben Simmons, LSU: Look. I get it. The Simmons hype train was out of control in the first week or two of the season. And while the numbers that he’s putting up are insane — 16.8 points, 15.0 boards, 5.8 assists, 2.0 steals and 1.3 blocks — he’s doing it on a team that hasn’t beaten anyone, lost to two middle-of-the-pack power conference foes and just fell at Charleston on Monday night in a game that Simmons shot 4-for-15 from the floor with seven turnovers. That said, he’s still one of the three best players in college basketball and he’s going to be the first college player taken in the draft. He still deserves to be on this list, but that will eventually change if his — and LSU’s performances — don’t.

10. Isaac Haas, Purdue: Haas may be a strange name to have on this list because so few people have heard of him. He’s a 7-foot-2 sophomore that only stepped into the starting lineup this season because A.J. Hammons was in Matt Painter’s doghouse, but he embraced the role and made it his own. On a team that’s winning because of their dominating front line, he’s been the best of the bunch: 15.0 points and 6.5 boards while shooting 75.6 percent from the floor and 73.7 percent from the foul line. Here’s the kicker: he’s doing all of that in just 19 minutes per game! He’s averaging an insane 31.6 points-per-40 minutes! He’s going to come back to earth eventually, but for now, let’s celebrate how utterly dominant the big man has been.

PREGAME SHOOTAROUND: Maryland/North Carolina highlights ACC/Big Ten games

Marcus Paige
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GAME OF THE DAY: No. 2 Maryland at No. 9 North Carolina, 9:30 p.m. (ESPN)

Marcus Paige makes his season debut as these former ACC rivals match up as top-ten ranked opponents for the first time since 1999. The return of the senior guard for the Tar Heels gives them more consistency when it comes to perimeter shooting and Paige should help North Carolina’s spacing. Maryland gets a great early-season road test as they’ve had to come from behind late in a handful of games early this season. The Terps remain unbeaten at 6-0 as Duke transfer Rasheed Sulaimon has looked good and sophomore point guard Melo Trimble has played well.

CBT’s Rob Dauster is covering this game and will have more on it tonight.

THIS ONE’S GOOD TOO: No. 11 Purdue at Pitt, 9:00 p.m. (ESPN2)

Both teams enter this one undefeated as the tough and balanced Boilermakers give the Panthers a legitimate test. Sophomore center Isaac Haas has been tremendous for Purdue and he’s complimented by senior center A.J. Hammons and freshman power forward Caleb Swanigan. Michael Young and Jamel Artis are off to big starts for Pitt, who hasn’t been tested much in their 4-0 start. This home game gives Jamie Dixon’s team a chance to prove they’re for real before ACC play begins. Purdue will likely be without senior guard Rapheal Davis, who is recovering from a sprained MCL.


  • No. 8 Villanova stays within Philadelphia and travels to Saint Joseph’s as they try to stay unbeaten against the 4-1 Hawks. Josh Hart is having a great season and the Wildcats look good early.
  • Ohio State has really struggled early this season with three losses, but they have a big chance to correct things at home against No. 10 Virginia. The Cavaliers are playing at a faster pace this season, but their defense has still been very good. The Buckeyes have lost three straight games, including home games to UT-Arlington and Louisiana Tech.
  • It will also be the season debut for Cheick Diallo tonight as No. 4 Kansas hosts Loyola (MD) in their return home from a title at the Maui Invitational. Wayne Selden is playing tremendously and we’ll have to see if his hot shooting continues.
  • No. 5 Iowa State is trying to remain unbeaten as they play at home against North Dakota State. The Cyclones return as champions from the Emerald Coast Classic as their offense is rolling.
  • After an impressive showing at the Puerto Rico Classic, No. 21 Miami lost at home to Northeastern and has a tough road game against Nebraska. Pinnacle Bank Arena will be load and the Huskers are unbeaten at home this season as Andrew White has stepped up nicely.
  • Other ACC/Big Ten Challenge games going on include Michigan visiting N.C. State and Northwestern playing at Virginia Tech.


  • Wofford at Georgia Tech, 7:00 p.m. (ESPN3)
  • Richmond at Florida, 7:00 p.m. (SEC)
  • Oakland at Georgia, 7:00 p.m. (ESPN3)
  • UMES at Georgetown, 7:00 p.m.
  • UT-Arlington at Texas, 8:00 p.m. (Longhorn)
  • Northwestern State at Arkansas, 9:00 p.m. (SEC)
  • Louisiana Tech at Memphis, 9:00 p.m. (CBSSN)
  • Arkansas State at Missouri, 9:00 p.m. (SEC)
  • Seattle at Cal, 10:00 p.m. (PAC12)