SATURDAY’S BUBBLE LOSERS
Ole Miss: The Rebels learned the hard way that the easiest way to play yourself off the bubble is to lose at South Carolina and, two weeks later, drop a game at Mississippi State. A pair of sub-200 losses in February isn’t going to impress the NCAA committee. They have one top 50 win and have lost six of their last ten. The Rebels may need to win the automatic bid.
Akron: There was no guarantee that winning out would have resulted in a tournament berth for the Zips, but their loss to Buffalo on Saturday night all-but ensured the fact that Akron will need to win the MAC’s automatic bid to go dancing.
Iowa State: The Cyclones couldn’t afford a loss at Oklahoma, not when they have struggled so much on the road this season and missed out on two marquee wins thanks to Elijah Johnson and Ben McLemore. Iowa State needs to win at Oklahoma State and cannot afford to lose to West Virginia. At that point, would three top 50 wins be enough to outweigh losses to Texas and Texas Tech?
Alabama: The Crimson Tide had a golden opportunity, up eight with 12 minutes left at Florida. But Anthony Grant’s club let that slip away, and they now find themselves in a tough spot with two games to play. They won’t have a top 50 win once Kentucky’s RPI is adjusted and they have four sub-100 losses.
Baylor: Baylor is all but done at this point, after losing a nail-biter at home to Kansas State on Saturday. With a home game against Kansas and the Big 12 tournament, there’s still a sliver of hope, but it’s fading fast.
Tennessee: After winning six straight games and beating Florida at home to thrust themselves into the middle of the bubble conversation, Tennessee went out and lost at Georgia, which puts them in a still-deeper NCAA tournament hole. The Vols have three top 50 wins and are 8-9 against the top 100, but they would be smart to avoid losing at Auburn and then beat Missouri at home.
Wichita State: The Shockers have eight top 100 wins and won at VCU and beat Southern Miss and Creighton at home. Combined with an RPI of 41, Gregg Marshall’s team should be OK. But with three sub-100 losses, Wichita State probably doesn’t want to risk losing in the first round of Arch Madness.
Arizona State: The Sun Devils entered this week with a chance to play their way into the tournament. They got swept at the LA schools, which will likely mean that even a win at Arizona next week won’t be enough.
Kentucky: Losing at Arkansas hurts, but all it does is erase Kentucky’s margin for error. Win three straight, and the Wildcats should be in.
Colorado: The Buffaloes lost at Cal on Saturday, but they have a strong enough computer profile — and wins over Arizona, Colorado State, Cal and Oregon — that they should be ok as long as they dont’ lose out.
Iowa: The Hawkeyes needed to beat Indiana to have any chance of earning an at-large bid. They’ll need to win the Big Ten tournament title.
You can find Rob on twitter @RobDauster.