THURSDAY’S BUBBLE WINNERS
Virginia: Thanks to an RPI that’s weighed down by six sub-100 losses — and one sub-300 loss to Old Dominion — Virginia still isn’t a lock for the NCAA tournament after they knocked off No. 3 Duke on Thursday night. But Virginia has three very winnable games left — at BC, at Florida State and at home for Maryland. This win should mean that, if the Cavs win out, they’ll earn themselves an at-large bid.
North Carolina: The Tar Heels have probably worked their way off the bubble at this point barring a disastrous collapse down the stretch of the season. It didn’t happen tonight, as UNC extended their small-ball winning streak to four games by beat Clemson on the road.
Louisiana Tech: Because of a strength of schedule that is outside the top 250 nationally, Louisiana Tech is going to have a lot of ground to make up if they want to get an at-large bid to the dance. The problem? They play in the WAC. They don’t have the chances to get quality wins that teams in bigger leagues do. Throw in the fact that the Bulldogs have lost to McNeese State and Northwestern State, and, well, it’s a long shot they’ll get in without winning the WAC’s automatic bid. But here’s the thing: playing on ESPN3 tonight, Mike White’s team beat down a (depleted, I know) 19-8 Utah State team. The eye test will always have some kind of role in this process, and this was a good way to make a statement.
Temple: Khalif Wyatt scored 10 straight points in a two-minute stretch at the end of the game to turn a 74-69 deficit into a 79-74 lead as the Owls hung on to beat Detroit at home on Thursday night. With three top 50 wins — including a win over Syracuse at the Garden — and eight top 100 wins, the Owls should be in good shape if they can win out. That would include beating VCU at home.
Missouri: The Tigers are barely in the bubble conversation right now, but with an ugly road record, Mizzou still has some work left to do. They left no doubt on Thursday night, going into South Carolina and knocking off the Gamecocks.
California: The Bears are in a similar spot as Missouri. Thanks to a late-season surge, Cal should feel pretty good about their chances as long as they don’t slip up down the stretch. They didn’t on Thursday, beating Utah by 18 points at home. Saturday’s date with Colorado should be more telling.
Middle Tennessee State: The Blue Raiders are an interesting case. They are 23rd in the RPI, but that’s mostly the result of beating a lot of mediocre teams and avoiding truly disastrous losses. MTSU has no top 50 wins and just a single top 100 win — Ole Miss. They cannot afford a loss, and will be a questionable at-large candidate even if they lose in the Sun Belt title game.
THURSDAY’S BUBBLE LOSERS
You can find Rob on twitter @RobDauster.