Manny Arop Indiana State

Virginia, Indiana State have two of the strangest bubble resumes

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Believe it or not, it’s now mid-February, which means that March Madness is right around the corner. We’ve already given you our newest bracket and bubble watch, but we will also be taking a weekly look at some of this season’s wackiest at-large profiles. All RPI and SOS numbers via WarrenNolan.com.

Virginia (17-6, 7-3) RPI: 81, SOS: 154

Virginia may have the strangest profile I’ve ever seen. The Cavs are 6-0 against the RPI top 100, and have managed to put together some impressive wins — at Wisconsin, NC State, North Carolina, at Maryland. The problem, however, is that the ‘Hoos have been just atrocious against some of the worst teams they have played. All six of their losses have come against teams with RPI’s in the triple digits. They are 0-3 against the CAA, including the RPI killing loss to Old Dominion (who is 3-22 and 319th in the RPI). They’ve lost at Clemson, Wake Forest and Georgia Tech. They played the 320th worst non-conference schedule in the country. Only Iowa’s is worse among teams in the RPI top 100.

Only USC in 2011 has gotten an at-large bid with six bad losses, and only George Washington in 2006 (when they went 26-2 and got an eight seed) has gotten an at-large bid with a non-conference SOS as high as 320.

But here’s the catch. Starting point guard Jontel Evans was injured earlier this year. He didn’t play in losses to ODU and George Mason and played just three minutes in the loss to Delaware. Do they win those games with Evans? How different does Virginia’s profile look without those ugly losses weighing it down? And, if Virginia has a healthy Evans and beats Delaware, they would have headed to the Preseason NIT semifinals in NYC, where they would have played Pitt and either Michigan or Kansas State. That would have boosted their non-conference schedule just a bit, I’d say.

Here’s the good news: Virginia still gets to play at North Carolina, at Miami and at home against Duke. They’ll have their chances to play their way into the tournament.

Indiana State (15-8, 9-4) RPI: 45, SOS: 50

The Sycamores are like a miniature version of UVA. Their good wins are really, really good. They beat Miami (No. 2 in the RPI) and Ole Miss in the Diamond Head Classic out in Hawaii, they won at Wichita State by 13 and knocked off Creighton at home by 19. They are tied for first in the Missouri Valley and can win the conference outright if they win out and if Wichita State wins at Creighton.

But the Trees also have some head-scratching losses. Morehead State beat them, as did Drake, Illinois State and Southern Illinois, who is 215th in the RPI. They have three road games in their final five in league play. Might want to avoid losing one of those.

Illinois (16-8, 4-7) RPI: 26, SOS: 5

No one in the country makes less sense than Illinois. They started off the regular season looking like an actual threat to compete for a Big Ten title, as they went into Spokane and knocked off Gonzaga, won the Maui Invitational with a 17 point win over Butler and smacked around Ohio State in their Big Ten opener. And then, the Illini proceeded to lose eight of their next 11 games and all but knocked themselves out of bubble contention.

Just when it seemed like John Groce’s club quite on the season, they turned around and beat Indiana at home and then went into Minneapolis and knocked off Minnesota. Put it all together, and Illinois has a top 30 RPI, five wins against the top 50, the fifth-toughest schedule in the country and a 4-7 record in the Big Ten.

Ole Miss (18-5, 7-3) RPI: 47, SOS: 105

The Rebels have a profile that looks like it would belong to a team coming out of Conference USA or the WAC. Their computer numbers aren’t terrible, but they aren’t great. They’re competing for a league title, but they are doing so in a conference that’s a long way from good. They haven’t lost to anyone outside the top 50 in the RPI, but they’ve only won one game against the RPI top 50 and that came when Missouri was playing without Laurence Bowers.

In essence, there is nothing bad about Ole Miss’ resume other than the fact that there is nothing good about it. And the worst part is that playing in the SEC won’t provide anymore chances for big wins until the SEC tournament. The Rebels play as many teams with an RPI in the 200s as they do teams in the top 100 — three.

You can find Rob on twitter @RobDauster.

Four-star guard Fisher commits to TCU

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Jamie Dixon’s presence is already being felt in the Big 12 and on the recruiting trail.

TCU received its first commitment of the Dixon era when four-star 2016 point guard Jaylen Fisher announced his decision to join the Horned Frogs on Wednesday.

“Due to how comfortable my family and I are with the coaching staff,” Fisher posted from his Twitter account, “and the emphasis the university has put on making basketball a priority, I’m committing to be a student-athlete at TCU.”

Getting a consensus top-75 prospect, who was once committed to UNLV, is a heck of a coup for being just a couple months on the job. It instantly shows the Frogs are going to be a player for some of the country’s top players, which is a necessity if you have designs on making a move up the ladder of arguably the country’s best league in the Big 12.

Maybe the most gratifying thing for TCU, though, is the reason Fisher publicly stated for making his decision, the school’s “making basketball a priority.” The hoops program has suffered immensely in the Big 12 (while the football program has flourished), winning a total of eight games in their four seasons (including a winless 2014), but the school sank $72 million into renovating its arena, made an aggressive move in firing Trent Johnson and then went out and got its dream candidate, Dixon, an alum. Fisher’s commitment is the first time those moves have shown that commitment to basketball paying off.

 

Report: Izundu’s San Diego State transfer ban rescinded

Ernie Kent
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Washington State transfer Valentine Izundu will be visiting San Diego State after all.

Coach Ernie Kent has rescinded his restriction on the 6-foot-10 graduate transfer from visiting the Aztecs, according to a report from the Spokesman-Review, citing an anonymous source. Izundu will also be reportedly visiting Fresno State and UNLV.

Izundu had previously been barred from considering the Aztecs by Kent because of suspcisions of tampering. Izundu vigorously denied that was the case as at the center of the dispute was a trip he made to San Diego for spring break. He publicly said he did not have any contact with the SDSU coaching staff , though he attended an Aztecs NIT game.

Kent, though, appears to have relented, as many coaches who have similarly faces public pressure in such situations before him have. In this era where so much attention is being paid to player rights and welfare, there only seems to be growing public sentiment against programs restricting transfers beyond the absolute bare minimum is rarely going to go over well. It may make things more difficult for coaches and programs, but it’s the deck is largely already stacked in their favor in most every other instance.

Ex-Michigan State player Keith Appling faces weapons charges

Keith Appling
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DEARBORN, Mich. (AP) Authorities say former Michigan State basketball player Keith Appling faces charges including carrying a concealed weapon after he was found in possession of guns and marijuana in suburban Detroit.

The Wayne County prosecutor’s office says 24-year-old Appling was arrested outside a Dearborn club on Sunday night. Club security called police after seeing a man pull a gun from the trunk of a car.

Prosecutors say Appling was in the driver’s seat of the car when police arrived. Officers found a handgun under the driver’s seat, a loaded weapon in the trunk and a small amount of suspected marijuana.

Weapons and marijuana possession charges were announced Wednesday.

The court says he doesn’t have a lawyer on record.

Appling played for the Spartans from 2010-2014 and plays for the NBA’s development league.

UNLV transfer to finish career at Michigan State

UNLV forward Ben Carter, right, celebrates after his team defeated Oregon in an NCAA college basketball game Friday, Dec. 4, 2015, in Las Vegas. UNLV won 80-69. (AP Photo/John Locher)
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Former UNLV center Ben Carter announced on Wednesday that he will be transferring to Michigan State to finish his collegiate career.

Carter, who began his career at Oregon, averaged 8.6 points and 6.0 boards in his one season with UNLV before tearing his ACL in late January. He spent two seasons with the Ducks before transferring to Vegas, which is why he’s eligible immediately for the Spartans.

And that’s the biggest reason that Tom Izzo and company targeted him.

The Spartans lost Deyonta Davis to the NBA Draft after one season, a fact that became an inevitability midway through the year but one that the Spartans didn’t necessarily plan for heading into last season. Carter isn’t going to be an instant impact kind of player, particularly not when he’s coming off of an ACL injury, but he is a big body and a veteran presence on a front line that wasn’t going have much of either.

Looking Forward: Which programs are set to step backwards as we head into 2016-17?

FILE - In this Feb. 9, 2016, file photo, Wichita State head coach Gregg Marshall directs his team during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game against Drake, in Des Moines, Iowa. At this time of year college basketball coaches often sound like political candidates looking for votes as they tout their teams' NCAA tournament worthiness.  (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall, File)
(AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall, File)
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The NBA Draft’s Early Entry Deadline has come and gone. Just about every elite recruit has decided where they will be playing their college ball next season. The coaching carousel, which ended up spinning a bit faster than initially expected, has come to a close for all of the major programs. 

In other words, by now, we have a pretty good feel for what college basketball is going to look like during the 2016-17 season. With that in mind, let’s take a look at some programs on the decline heading into next season.

Wichita State: It’s hard to see the Shockers take too much of a tumble given how good a coach Gregg Marshall is and their superiority to the rest of the Missouri Valley Conference, but the graduations of Fred VanVleet and Ron Baker mean the end of an era. Those two were the constants of a Final Four team, then a 35-0 squad, followed by a Sweet 16 and finishing last March in the second round. There’s still talent in Wichita and they are still going to be the heavyweights of the Valley, but the dominance and national prestige that came with VanVleet and Baker may have also left with them.

UNLV: Things haven’t exactly been at a highwater mark in Las Vegas in awhile, but the Running Rebels appear to continue to sink. First, they fired coach Dave Rice in the middle of the season, which is never received well in coaching circles, exactly the place you need to go to, you know, hire another coach. The Rick Pitino pipedream never materialized, and then Mick Cronin couldn’t pull the trigger despite giving life in the desert a serious look. That left UNLV with Little Rock’s first-year coach Chris Beard, until an ugly debate regent debate to approve his contract preempted an exit to Texas Tech just a week after taking the job. New head coach Marvin Menzies was hired with just two scholarship players left in the program. All of that messiness is a terrible sign for the current health of a once-mighty program.

Iowa State: The news for the Cyclones this spring has been almost universally positive, starting with point guard Monte’ Morris deciding to not even test the NBA draft process and return for a senior season in which he’ll be the Cyclones’ focal point. ISU also will be getting Naz Mitrou-Long back after the sharpshooter was granted a medical hardship waiver. But the reality remains that the Cyclones lost one of the best players in program history in Georges Niang and have been enjoying the most successful run in program history. Some sort of slide is likely — and has been expected — as a result. But coach Steve Prohm and ISU may have enough talent to return to the NCAA tournament for a school-record sixth time and forestall any setback.

RELATED: Eight programs that are on the rise as we head into next season

Steve Prohm and Monte Morris (AP Photo/Mark Wallheiser)
Steve Prohm and Monte Morris (AP Photo/Mark Wallheiser)

North Carolina State: It really looked like Mark Gottfried was going to get things rolling in a big way following the 2014-15 season in which the Wolfpack went 22-14, had a good core returning and recruiting booming. But Trevor Lacey turned pro (only to go undrafted), Kyle Washington transferred and NC State stumbled to a 16-17 record last season. Now, Cat Barber is leaving to go pro and Abdul-Malik Abu may do the same or follow the Martin twins into the transfer, and suddenly the forecast in Raleigh isn’t so sunny even with Dennis Smith Jr. in the fold.

Pittsburgh: The Panthers traded a coach who won two Big East titles, went to the Sweet 16 twice, the Elite Eight once and only missed the NCAA tournament twice in 13 years for a guy that Vanderbilt was pushing out the door. Not great. Even if things had gotten stale for Pitt fans with Jamie Dixon, the results he achieved are hard to argue. Few believe that Kevin Stallings is the answer to jumpstart the program back to where Dixon had it during the first years of his tenure, especially as the ACC continues to be a monster to navigate.

Kansas State: The Bruce Weber era in Manhattan started out with a bang, as he tied for a Big 12 title in his first year taking over for Frank Martin, but it’s been backsliding since, capped with a 17-16 (5-13 Big 12) campaign this past season. He couldn’t make it work with the most talented player (Marcus Foster) he’s had there, and there hasn’t exactly been a line of high-level recruits making their way to Manhattan. And if that wasn’t bad enough, KSU fans had to watch Oklahoma State hire former Wildcat assistant Brad Underwood while their administration gave Weber a stay of execution.

Ohio State: This is probably the trickiest inclusion, as Thad Matta’s track record would suggest that last year’s NIT appearance was merely a slip on the path to a return to the top of the Big Ten. The trouble, though, is that seeing four members of a heralded five-man 2015 recruiting class all decide to transfer is a major red flag. The Buckeyes do welcome another strong class to Columbus this fall, headlined by Derek Funderburk, but there are some visible cracks in the facade.