Believe it or not, it’s now mid-February, which means that March Madness is right around the corner. We’ve already given you our newest bracket and bubble watch, but we will also be taking a weekly look at some of this season’s wackiest at-large profiles. All RPI and SOS numbers via WarrenNolan.com.
Virginia (17-6, 7-3) RPI: 81, SOS: 154
Virginia may have the strangest profile I’ve ever seen. The Cavs are 6-0 against the RPI top 100, and have managed to put together some impressive wins — at Wisconsin, NC State, North Carolina, at Maryland. The problem, however, is that the ‘Hoos have been just atrocious against some of the worst teams they have played. All six of their losses have come against teams with RPI’s in the triple digits. They are 0-3 against the CAA, including the RPI killing loss to Old Dominion (who is 3-22 and 319th in the RPI). They’ve lost at Clemson, Wake Forest and Georgia Tech. They played the 320th worst non-conference schedule in the country. Only Iowa’s is worse among teams in the RPI top 100.
Only USC in 2011 has gotten an at-large bid with six bad losses, and only George Washington in 2006 (when they went 26-2 and got an eight seed) has gotten an at-large bid with a non-conference SOS as high as 320.
But here’s the catch. Starting point guard Jontel Evans was injured earlier this year. He didn’t play in losses to ODU and George Mason and played just three minutes in the loss to Delaware. Do they win those games with Evans? How different does Virginia’s profile look without those ugly losses weighing it down? And, if Virginia has a healthy Evans and beats Delaware, they would have headed to the Preseason NIT semifinals in NYC, where they would have played Pitt and either Michigan or Kansas State. That would have boosted their non-conference schedule just a bit, I’d say.
Here’s the good news: Virginia still gets to play at North Carolina, at Miami and at home against Duke. They’ll have their chances to play their way into the tournament.
Indiana State (15-8, 9-4) RPI: 45, SOS: 50
The Sycamores are like a miniature version of UVA. Their good wins are really, really good. They beat Miami (No. 2 in the RPI) and Ole Miss in the Diamond Head Classic out in Hawaii, they won at Wichita State by 13 and knocked off Creighton at home by 19. They are tied for first in the Missouri Valley and can win the conference outright if they win out and if Wichita State wins at Creighton.
But the Trees also have some head-scratching losses. Morehead State beat them, as did Drake, Illinois State and Southern Illinois, who is 215th in the RPI. They have three road games in their final five in league play. Might want to avoid losing one of those.
Illinois (16-8, 4-7) RPI: 26, SOS: 5
No one in the country makes less sense than Illinois. They started off the regular season looking like an actual threat to compete for a Big Ten title, as they went into Spokane and knocked off Gonzaga, won the Maui Invitational with a 17 point win over Butler and smacked around Ohio State in their Big Ten opener. And then, the Illini proceeded to lose eight of their next 11 games and all but knocked themselves out of bubble contention.
Just when it seemed like John Groce’s club quite on the season, they turned around and beat Indiana at home and then went into Minneapolis and knocked off Minnesota. Put it all together, and Illinois has a top 30 RPI, five wins against the top 50, the fifth-toughest schedule in the country and a 4-7 record in the Big Ten.
Ole Miss (18-5, 7-3) RPI: 47, SOS: 105
The Rebels have a profile that looks like it would belong to a team coming out of Conference USA or the WAC. Their computer numbers aren’t terrible, but they aren’t great. They’re competing for a league title, but they are doing so in a conference that’s a long way from good. They haven’t lost to anyone outside the top 50 in the RPI, but they’ve only won one game against the RPI top 50 and that came when Missouri was playing without Laurence Bowers.
In essence, there is nothing bad about Ole Miss’ resume other than the fact that there is nothing good about it. And the worst part is that playing in the SEC won’t provide anymore chances for big wins until the SEC tournament. The Rebels play as many teams with an RPI in the 200s as they do teams in the top 100 — three.
You can find Rob on twitter @RobDauster.