Who’s Getting Upset?: Oklahoma at No. 3 Kansas (4:00 p.m. ET, ESPN)
I think that Oklahoma has a chance to knock off Kansas in Phog Allen this weekend. If you remember earlier this season, Iowa State nearly beat Kansas before getting bailed out by a banked-in three from Ben McLemore with 1.0 seconds left on the clock. The Cyclones probably deserved to win that game in regulation, however, and the way they did it was fairly simple: They used their perimeter-oriented big men to pull Jeff Withey away from the rim and get him into ball-screen and dribble-handoff actions.
Oklahoma has a pair of bigs that are quite capable of stepping out onto the perimeter and knocking down jump shots. If Lon Kruger can get his team to execute offensively the same way that Fred Hoiberg got his team to, and if the Sooners are knocking down their shots, they’ll have a puncher’s chance.
There’s more to it than that, however. Oklahoma has a kid by the name of Buddy Hield who is an athletic freshman that is one of the better defenders in the Big 12. He’ll likely get stuck on Ben McLemore, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he did a good job slowing down the uber-talented freshman.
Who else is on Upset Alert?:
- No. 3 Syracuse at Villanova (11:00 a.m. ET, ESPNU): Villanova just knocked off Louisville at home in another game against a top five team that plays almost primarily 2-3 zone. The Wildcats, if they can hit shots from the perimeter again, should have a chance in their last visit from Syracuse before the Big East finally splits up.
- No. 5 Louisville at Georgetown (12:00 p.m. ET, ESPN): Louisville gets into trouble when they have problems scoring the ball because it means that the Cardinals can’t get into their press. Louisville is capable of going on these game-changing runs — they’re more like surges than runs, as they slowly wear you down — because they are at their best defensively immediately after a made shot. Georgetown, for all their issues, offensively, is quite good on the defensive end of the floor. That should at least let them keep it close.
- No. 11 Kansas State at Iowa State (1:45 p.m. ET, ESPN3): Iowa State may have just lost to Texas Tech, but the Cyclones have talent on their roster and a handful of players that can get hot and go for 20 points on a given night. They also have the kind of versatility on their front line that will make it tough for a Thomas Gibson or a Jordan Henriquez to cover.
- No. 2 Michigan at Illinois (Sun. 6:00 p.m. ET, Big Ten Net): Given the divergent paths of Michigan and Illinois this year, this seems silly, but hear me out: Illinois ran Ohio State out of the gym when they hosted the Buckeyes because the Illini were able to matchup with them playing small ball. In other words, Deshaun Thomas is essentially a three playing at the four, which was ideal for John Groce’s style this season. Guess what Michigan has: a three (Glenn Robinson III) playing the four for them.
- No. 24 Notre Dame at South Florida (12:00 p.m. ET, ESPN3): At this point, would a win by the Bulls here even be considered an upset? The only reason Notre Dame is still ranked is because the new rankings haven’t been released yet. Don’t expect this game to reach the 50’s. South Florida plays slow, and I would expect Notre Dame to go back to their Burn Offense.
You can find Rob on twitter @RobDauster.