Breaking Down: Why UVA’s style won the fight with UNC

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“Styles win the fight.”

That’s a saying you hear a lot in sports, particularly boxing, but it’s quite relevant to college basketball as well.

What does it mean?

You are going to run into times where the way a certain team plays has much more influence on the outcome of a game than the amount individual talent or coaching ability on either roster. In simpler terms, some teams match up really well with certain opponents.

It’s no secret that Roy Williams likes to get his UNC team out and running. It’s not a coincidence that the Heels have been in the top 30 in terms of tempo, according to Kenpom, every season that he’s been in Chapel Hill. But there is a reason that this year’s group is on pace to be the fastest team he’s ever had at UNC: they cannot execute in the half court.

According to Synergy Sports Technology, UNC is averaging 1.168 points per possession (PPP) in transition, which is in the 85th percentile nationally, while scoring just 0.83 PPP in the half court, which is in the 60th percentile. (By comparison, last season UNC scored 1.119 PPP in transition and 0.88 PPP in the half court.) There are a couple of reasons that the Heels struggle in the half court. For starters, their overall talent level is down this season. That’s inarguable. Their point guard — Marcus Paige — is not a great penetrator, and when he does put the ball on the floor, he’s looking to score, not to create. The rest of the perimeter players are jump-shooters looking to hit threes, which is an issue when there is no one on the roster capable of getting them open catch-and-shoot opportunities.

Perhaps most importantly, they no low-post scoring threat. Look at the great UNC teams under Roy Williams. They all had a hoss on the block — Sean May, Tyler Hansbrough, Tyler Zeller. James Michael McAdoo is a kid with a ton of talent and potential, but he’s not a low-post scorer. Joel James, Brice Johnson and Desmond Hubert might get to that point one day, but they are all young and still developing right now.

Now think about Virginia, who beat the Heels on Sunday night. Under Tony Bennett, the Cavs control the pace as well as any team in the country — Kenpom has them as 344th in the country in tempo — and, as anyone can tell you, it’s much easier to slow the tempo of the game down than it is to speed it up. Against UNC, UVA did that three ways:

1) They didn’t force any bad shots. As Jay Bilas likes to say, “a bad shot is the outlet pass for a transition team.” Quick, contested shots, when they are missed, are like a turnover. They lead to fast breaks the other direction. UVA didn’t take many, if any, of those.

2) They didn’t crash the offensive glass. Here’s an example. Take a look at where Justin Anderson’s teammates are when he shoots this three:

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And where they are when it hits the rim:

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By contrast, look at where UNLV is when Anthony Bennett shoots a three in the Rebel’s loss at UNC:

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Notice a difference?

3. UVA was able to matchup with UNC’s secondary break. What makes Roy Williams’ system so dangerous is that there is a method to his fast-breaking madness. It’s a system. As soon as a rebound is secured, the two and the three take off up the wings on opposite sides of the floor. One of the big men sprints to the block on the offensive end, while the other big man trails the point guard up the floor. The goal, if the immediate transition was stopped by the defense, is to end up in a four-around-one set.

And out of this set, UNC a series of quick-hitters known as their secondary break. Sometimes they are dictated by the way the defense is set up or who the point guard was able to pass ahead to. One of those quick-hitters, a double-screen for the shooter on the far side of the floor, looks like this. Another one, a backdoor lob for the trailing big man, looks like this. Sometimes they are plays that are called.

One of the reasons the secondary break is effective is that it catches the defense scrambling after the ball was pushed up the floor. The goal is to find a defender that is still recovering or that is out of position or that is stuck in a mismatch. Since UVA didn’t take quick shots and dropped three and four guys to prevent the fast break, they were able to comfortably matchup with the Heels and get set into their pack-line defense.

UVA’s style won the fight, and that’s why the Cavs are 1-0 in ACC play.

Previous Breaking Down posts can be found here.

You can find Rob on twitter @RobDauster.

College Basketball Power Rankings: Wichita State’s loss, Oklahoma’s gain, and ‘why Arizona?’

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It seemed like this was going to be a pretty straight-forward week for the Power Rankings … until Saturday happened, and five top 25 teams lost to unranked opponents.

The toughest one to figure out what to do with was Wichita State, who dropped all the way down to No. 16 from No. 3. They currently sit one spot behind Oklahoma, who beat them in Wichita on Saturday. Ranking the Shockers is a difficult thing to do at this point in the schedule, mainly because what we see on the floor from them doesn’t exactly jibe with what we assume that program to be.

They have not been themselves defensively through the first six weeks of the season. Or maybe they have and they just aren’t as good on that end of the floor as we assumed they would be. However you slice, the bottom-line is this: If Wichita State is not among the nation’s elite defensively they are not going to be in the conversation with Villanova, Michigan State and Duke as one of college basketball’s best. They just don’t have the horsepower on the other end of the floor.

The ranking that I got the most push-back on last week was putting Arizona at No. 6. They’re at No. 5 this week, up a spot after Wichita State dropped out. My reasoning is this: I am generally going to bet on talent, and rare will be the night when Arizona is not the most talented team on the floor. How many teams in the country will they play where Allonzo Trier and Deandre Ayton are not the two-best players on the floor? Maybe five? Ten, tops? And of those five-to-ten teams, I don’t think a single one of them can claim that they have two of the three best players on the floor.

And now they have Rawle Alkins back, who just went for 26 points on 11 shots at New Mexico.

Since the disaster in the Bahamas, Arizona has won five straight. They won at UNLV. They won a semi-home game against a very good Texas A&M team. They beat Alabama. They handled New Mexico fairly easily in The Pit. In a year where everyone has warts, I’m fine being the first one to say that those three games in Atlantis were just one of those weird things that happen in college basketball.

Anyway, here are this week’s Power Rankings:

1. Villanova, 10-0 (Last Week: No. 1)
2. Michigan State, 10-1 (2)
3. Miami, 9-0 (3)
4. Duke, 11-1 (5)
5. Arizona, 8-3 (6)
6. Arizona State, 10-0 (7)
7. Texas A&M, 9-1 (8)
8. North Carolina, 10-1 (12)
9. Xavier, 10-1 (9)
10. West Virginia, 9-1 (10)
11. Purdue, 11-2 (16)
12. Gonzaga, 9-2 (14)
13. Kansas, 7-2 (13)
14. Kentucky, 9-1 (17)
15. Oklahoma, 8-1 (19)
16. Wichita State, 8-2 (3)
17. Seton Hall, 9-2 (11)
18. Virginia, 9-1 (18)
19. TCU, 10-0 (25)
20. Notre Dame, 8-3 (15)
21. Cincinnati, 9-2 (23)
22. Tennessee, 7-2 (20)
23. Texas Tech, 9-1 (24)
24. Baylor, 9-2 (NR)
25. Arkansas, 8-2 (NR)

NEW ADDITIONS: 24. Baylor, 25. Arkansas

DROPPED OUT: 21. Florida State, 22. Florida

No. 5 Arizona State rallies to beat Vanderbilt 76-64

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TEMPE, Ariz. (AP) — Arizona State came out flat, missing shots, tossing balls into the stands, allowing open 3-pointers.

The No. 5 team in the country? The Sun Devils looked more like they should be unranked, not among college basketball’s elite.

In a matter of minutes, it all changed. Arizona State forced turnovers, got out on the break and dropped in 3-pointers to keep the crowd on its feet.

Once the Sun Devils get rolling like this, there’s no stopping them.

Tra Holder scored 25 points, Shannon Evans II added 15 and No. 5 Arizona State overcame a dismal start with a massive halftime-spanning run to beat Vanderbilt 76-64 on Sunday. The Sun Devils improved to 10-0 for the first time in their history.

“We had the bursts and it’s great we took the game from a one-two possession game and all of a sudden it’s mid-doubles,” Arizona State coach Bobby Hurley said. “It happens fast.”

Arizona State built a national buzz with last week’s road win over Kansas and its highest ranking in 36 years.

The Sun Devils looked nothing like the team that won at Allen Fieldhouse early against Vanderbilt (3-7), falling into a 13-0 hole. Once one of the nation’s most explosive teams finally came to life, Vanderbilt had no chance.

Sharp at both ends, Arizona State used a 26-3 run spanning halftime to turn what started out as an embarrassing performance into a runaway that had Wells Fargo Arena the loudest it’s been all season.

Mickey Mitchell provided the Sun Devils a spark off the bench, playing solid defense while grabbing 13 rebounds. Arizona State hit 14 of 28 shots in the second half to remain one of the nation’s four undefeated teams.

Saben Lee had 24 points to lead Vanderbilt, which shot 4 of 30 from 3-point range.

“We’re a small team, like ASU, and we have to make 3s,” Vanderbilt coach Bryce Drew said.

Following last Sunday’s 10-point win over then-No. 2 Kansas, the Sun Devils moved up to No. 5, their highest ranking since being No. 3 in 1980-81, and received five first-place votes in the Top 25, a program first.

Suddenly, they were a trendy pick to make a Final Four. Hurley was being touted as a national coach of the year candidate by the coach of Arizona State’s biggest rival. A buzz spread across the Valley of the Sun and beyond about the program being touted as “Guard U.”

The spotlight appeared to be too bright for the Sun Devils early against Vanderbilt.

Disjointed and struggling with double teams in the post, Arizona State had five turnovers in the game’s opening five minutes. The Sun Devils didn’t score until Romello White’s layup at 14:49, and the fans who were rowdy long before tipoff groaned with each miscue.

“We were knocking down shots and they were missing at the beginning,” Lee said.

Then Arizona State got back to playing the way it had to open the season.

The Sun Devils harassed the Commodores into difficult shots late in the shot clock and jumped into passing lanes to create turnovers. Shots missed earlier at the rim started going in, and they made a couple of late 3-pointers after missing their first nine.

Holder had one of those 3s, dropping a deep one at the halftime buzzer that put Arizona State up 30-29.

The Sun Devils kept the engine revving in the second half, scoring 12 straight points to push the lead to 49-31. Vanderbilt made one push, but got no closer than 12.

“We were just a little rusty. We had a long week off,” said Holder, who made all 11 of his free throws. “But we got back to our groove.”

BIG PICTURE

Vanderbilt showed it can play with highly-ranked teams in the opening 10 minutes. The final 30 showed the Commodores still have plenty of work to do before the SEC season starts.

Arizona State looked like the No. 5 team in the country after its shaky start and could move up in Monday’s poll after No. 3 Wichita State lost.

LEE’S HOMECOMING

Lee grew up in Arizona and played at Corona del Sol High School in Tempe, so Sunday’s game was a homecoming of sorts.

The freshman guard is Vanderbilt’s assist leader with 34 and made 9 of 14 shots to set a career high in points.

“It was pretty weird, knowing that I watched a lot of games here and now I’m going against them,” Lee said. “But it was a good experience..”

UP NEXT

Vanderbilt hosts Houston Baptist on Wednesday.

Arizona State hosts Longwood on Tuesday.

Illinois State’s Dan Muller pleaded for a tougher schedule on Twitter and got it

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Finishing the regular season at 27-6 wasn’t good enough to get Illinois State into last season’s NCAA tournament.

Although the Redbirds shared the Missouri Valley Conference title with Wichita State and split a regular-season series against the nationally-ranked Shockers, the NCAA tournament selection committee left Illinois State in the cold for an at-large bid on Selection Sunday.

The major reason: schools from power conferences continually refuse to schedule quality mid-major opponents like Illinois State. The Redbirds only played TCU from a “Power 5” conference during non-conference play last season. A road loss to the Horned Frogs didn’t do Illinois State much good in the eyes of the committee.

So Illinois State head coach Dan Muller took an interesting approach to generating a more respectable non-conference schedule. Muller took to Twitter and fully utilized his bitmoji game to call out programs from bigger conferences. His goal was to get the NCAA tournament selection committee’s attention with how tough it is for mid-major programs to schedule bigger schools. Muller also hoped the Redbirds could secure a home-and-home series against legitimate, power-conference competition.

“It got a lot of play. I thought it would go national. I didn’t think it would get as big as it got,” Muller said to NBCSports.com. “I got interviews across the country, some TV stuff, and a lot of responses from coaches, friends. A lot of them said it was hilarious. A lot of them said it was great. My point was to emphasize the difficulty in how the selection committee wants schools like us to do [things].”

Muller’s plea quickly went viral. More importantly, Muller’s plea actually worked.

Ole Miss was interested in making a home-and-home deal with the Redbirds. The two programs literally started the series with a very public back-and-forth on Twitter. There was a previous connection between the schools as Torrey Ward had been an assistant coach with both programs. Ward was tragically killed in a plane crash after the 2015 Final Four while he was the associate head coach of the Redbirds.

“It was all public, to be honest. What you saw is how it started,” Muller said of the series. “Rob Bjork, the AD at Ole Miss, tweeted back to me and I hit him back. I’ve known Andy Kennedy for a long time. Obviously there’s a very close acquaintance and friend we’ve got in Torrey Ward — so we had a connection there. That’s why AK wanted to do it. So, we’re grateful and appreciative.”

The two programs started the home-and-home series in Oxford on Saturday as Ward was honored with a video tribute from Ole Miss before the game. Ward’s family was also in attendance — including his mother, ex-wife and two children.

“It was great to see [Ward’s family],” Muller said. “We honored Torrey before the game and I know that was a big part of what Andy wanted to do.”

Besides for the heartwarming gesture in honoring a fallen friend, the game was also beneficial for Illinois State because they earned an overtime win, on the road, against an SEC opponent. Muller’s plan actually worked. The Redbirds have tried to answer the committee this season by playing a top-20 non-conference schedule. Unfortunately, Illinois State isn’t currently in position to earn a potential at-large bid after a sluggish 5-6 start.

But the Valley appears to be wide open now that Wichita State has ascended into the American Athletic Conference. Illinois State has been missing two key members of its rotation for nearly the entire season. Muller is optimistic that the tough non-conference schedule has properly prepared the Redbirds for the conference slate. The race for the Valley’s at-large bid is still going to be tight.

“We’re getting better; we have a lot of talent. We’re building our depth. But we’ve got to be healthy,” Muller said. “If, and when, we’re healthy, I really do think we’ll have a chance to be right there in the end.”

Even if Illinois State falls short of the NCAA tournament this season, Muller has laid the groundwork for another competitive non-conference schedule for next season. Always an aggressive coach when it comes to scheduling, Muller and the Redbirds have some solid opponents like Ole Miss, BYU and Florida Gulf Coast coming to campus next season. Arizona State also called to show interest in a potential home-and-home series with Illinois State. The two programs couldn’t figure out a date to make things work but it served as a reminder that Muller’s tweet was working.

What started as a plea to the NCAA tournament selection committee has turned into an unexpected boon to Illinois State’s scheduling practices. Muller acknowledged that he doesn’t prefer to use Twitter. But Muller might have to bring out his popular bitmoji character more often if it continues to lead to results like this.

No. 7 North Carolina’s late-run earns win at No. 20 Tennessee

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Joel Berry II scored 21 points and Kenny Williams added 15, including a three with 32.7 seconds left that gave the Tar Heels a lead they would never relinquish, as No. 7 North Carolina went into Knoxville and knocked off No. 20 Tennessee, 78-73.

The Volunteers were in control for much of this game, but UNC used a 9-0 run in the final minute – a run that was aided by a pair of Tennessee turnovers – and made the shots and the plays they needed to make down the stretch to get the win.

It’s almost like North Carolina won the national title last season, their second straight year playing in the national title game.

For the first 20 minutes, North Carolina had no idea how to handle Tennessee’s defensive intensity. They committed 12 first half turnovers land trailed 38-32 at the break. But over the course of the second half, UNC got control of their turnover problems and got back into the game. Ironically enough, turnovers were precisely why the Tar Heels were able to make their comeback. Tennessee committed two turnovers in the final minute, including giving the ball away up by one with a minute left on the clock. That possession ended with Williams’ game-winning three.

Grant Williams led five Tennessee players in double-figures with 15 points.

Here are three things we can take away from this game:

1. North Carolina has their deficiencies, but they just keep on winning

There are a lot of things about this North Carolina team that I don’t like. They really only have one proven offensive weapon, depending on how you view Luke Maye. They are a program built on having a frontline that is better than their opponent’s frontline, but this year have to rely on a stretchy-four in Maye and a trio of freshmen that may or may not actually be ready to play at this level. I’m not convinced they have the three-point shooting they need, either.

But here we are, nearly six weeks into the season, and the Tar Heels have just a single loss to their name – which came against Michigan State – and just picked up a win at Tennessee. Sterling Manley and Garrison Brooks appear to be growing into the roles that they are being asked to play. Maye has looked like an all-american for the most part. They’re shooting 40 percent from three on the season. They’re defending.

And, as a result, they’re winning.

2. Tennessee is legit, but losing this game is going to hurt

Part of the reason I’m coming around on North Carolina after this win is that this is the first time that they have beaten someone truly impressive. Arkansas on a neutral is one thing. Michigan, Northern Iowa and Davidson at home are good, not great wins. Stanford on the road is whatever.

But Tennessee?

Tennessee is really good. They’re tough, they’re physical, they can defend and force turnovers, and they play in front of an arena that, when the Vols matter, can get as loud and rowdy as any. The Vols, to me, are in the conversation for top four in the SEC, are clearly a top 25 team and look like they can make a run to the second weekend of the tournament if they get a good draw. They’re legit.

Which is why this is a good win for UNC.

But it’s also a loss that the Vols should have won.

Tennessee was in control for the majority of this game. They were up at the half. They held that lead through the second half and they had the ball with the lead with less than a minute left … and turned it over. Winning is a skill. Developing the ability to execute and handle game pressure in crunch time is learned. The Vols aren’t quite there yet, and it showed in the final minute tonight.

That will sting.

3. Kenny Williams turning into a knockdown shooter is a difference-maker for UNC

Williams made one three as a freshman. One. He shot 33.8 percent from three as a sophomore.

This year?

After hitting the game-winner on Sunday evening he’s now knocking down 54.5 percent of his threes while shooting four per game. He’s turned into one of the best shooters in the ACC, which is so important for UNC. A lack of perimeter shooting has been an issue for them in recent years, but they were able to overcome it because their big men were so dominant. This year, without those dominant big men, North Carolina has to rely more on their perimeter game, and if Williams can shoot any where near this clip, Maye remains the player that he’s been most of the year and Cam Johnson comes back healthy, the Tar Heels are suddenly a team that look very, very difficult to guard.

VIDEO: Mykhailiuk’s late 3-pointer lifts Kansas over Huskers 73-72

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Kansas snapped a two-game losing streak in dramatic fashion late on Saturday night, getting a three from Svi Mykhailiuk with 23 seconds left to give the Jayhawks a 73-72 lead at Nebraska:

The real hero of the game, however, was not Svi.

It was Udoka Azubuike.

For a team that has been surviving on jumpshooting for far too much of their offense, Azubuike’s arrival could not have come at a better time. The 6-foot-10 center went for 26 points on 13-for-17 shooting – oddly enough, he didn’t get to the foul line a single time – and added nine boards, five of which were on the offensive end.

Azubuike also made the game-saving play in the final seconds, blocking a shot by James Palmer and tracking down the loose ball to preserve the win.