Evan Nolte, Mike Tobey

Breaking Down: Why UVA’s style won the fight with UNC

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“Styles win the fight.”

That’s a saying you hear a lot in sports, particularly boxing, but it’s quite relevant to college basketball as well.

What does it mean?

You are going to run into times where the way a certain team plays has much more influence on the outcome of a game than the amount individual talent or coaching ability on either roster. In simpler terms, some teams match up really well with certain opponents.

It’s no secret that Roy Williams likes to get his UNC team out and running. It’s not a coincidence that the Heels have been in the top 30 in terms of tempo, according to Kenpom, every season that he’s been in Chapel Hill. But there is a reason that this year’s group is on pace to be the fastest team he’s ever had at UNC: they cannot execute in the half court.

According to Synergy Sports Technology, UNC is averaging 1.168 points per possession (PPP) in transition, which is in the 85th percentile nationally, while scoring just 0.83 PPP in the half court, which is in the 60th percentile. (By comparison, last season UNC scored 1.119 PPP in transition and 0.88 PPP in the half court.) There are a couple of reasons that the Heels struggle in the half court. For starters, their overall talent level is down this season. That’s inarguable. Their point guard — Marcus Paige — is not a great penetrator, and when he does put the ball on the floor, he’s looking to score, not to create. The rest of the perimeter players are jump-shooters looking to hit threes, which is an issue when there is no one on the roster capable of getting them open catch-and-shoot opportunities.

Perhaps most importantly, they no low-post scoring threat. Look at the great UNC teams under Roy Williams. They all had a hoss on the block — Sean May, Tyler Hansbrough, Tyler Zeller. James Michael McAdoo is a kid with a ton of talent and potential, but he’s not a low-post scorer. Joel James, Brice Johnson and Desmond Hubert might get to that point one day, but they are all young and still developing right now.

Now think about Virginia, who beat the Heels on Sunday night. Under Tony Bennett, the Cavs control the pace as well as any team in the country — Kenpom has them as 344th in the country in tempo — and, as anyone can tell you, it’s much easier to slow the tempo of the game down than it is to speed it up. Against UNC, UVA did that three ways:

1) They didn’t force any bad shots. As Jay Bilas likes to say, “a bad shot is the outlet pass for a transition team.” Quick, contested shots, when they are missed, are like a turnover. They lead to fast breaks the other direction. UVA didn’t take many, if any, of those.

2) They didn’t crash the offensive glass. Here’s an example. Take a look at where Justin Anderson’s teammates are when he shoots this three:

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And where they are when it hits the rim:

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By contrast, look at where UNLV is when Anthony Bennett shoots a three in the Rebel’s loss at UNC:

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Notice a difference?

3. UVA was able to matchup with UNC’s secondary break. What makes Roy Williams’ system so dangerous is that there is a method to his fast-breaking madness. It’s a system. As soon as a rebound is secured, the two and the three take off up the wings on opposite sides of the floor. One of the big men sprints to the block on the offensive end, while the other big man trails the point guard up the floor. The goal, if the immediate transition was stopped by the defense, is to end up in a four-around-one set.

And out of this set, UNC a series of quick-hitters known as their secondary break. Sometimes they are dictated by the way the defense is set up or who the point guard was able to pass ahead to. One of those quick-hitters, a double-screen for the shooter on the far side of the floor, looks like this. Another one, a backdoor lob for the trailing big man, looks like this. Sometimes they are plays that are called.

One of the reasons the secondary break is effective is that it catches the defense scrambling after the ball was pushed up the floor. The goal is to find a defender that is still recovering or that is out of position or that is stuck in a mismatch. Since UVA didn’t take quick shots and dropped three and four guys to prevent the fast break, they were able to comfortably matchup with the Heels and get set into their pack-line defense.

UVA’s style won the fight, and that’s why the Cavs are 1-0 in ACC play.

Previous Breaking Down posts can be found here.

You can find Rob on twitter @RobDauster.

PREGAME SHOOTAROUND: Kansas/Oklahoma rematch highlights a fun day of hoops

Kansas guard Devonte' Graham (4) and forward Perry Ellis (34) go to the floor with Oklahoma guard Jordan Woodard, back, during the first overtime of an NCAA college basketball game in Lawrence, Kan., Monday, Jan. 4, 2016. Kansas defeated Oklahoma 109-106 in triple overtime. (AP Photo/Orlin Wagner)
(AP Photo/Orlin Wagner)
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GAME OF THE NIGHTNo. 6 Kansas at No. 3 Oklahoma, 2:30 p.m.

From Rob Dauster’s Weekend Preview.

The rematch we’ve all been waiting for will happen on Saturday.

A little more than a month after Buddy Hield burst onto the national scene with 46 points in a triple-overtime thriller — thriller doesn’t do it justice, that was one of the best college basketball games of all time — the Jayhawks will may their return trip to Norman to take of the Sooners. Only the circumstances of Saturday’s showdown will be a little bit different than what they were on that Monday night in January, when the No. 1 team in the AP poll squared off with the No. 1 team in the Coaches poll.

Oklahoma is no longer the No. 1 team in the country, as they’ve gone just 3-2 in their last five games while needing last-second game-winners to hang on against LSU and Texas during that stretch. But Kansas is not longer ranked at the top of the polls either, as the Jayhawks have managed just a 2-3 record in the Big 12 away from Phog Allen Fieldhouse, with those two wins coming against TCU and Texas Tech. They needed to beat West Virginia on Tuesday night just to ensure that this game would feature two teams sitting at the top of the Big 12 standings.

And that, at the end of the day, is going to be the most important takeaway from this game. Kansas plays four of their last seven Big 12 games on the road, and three of those road trips are against top 25 teams. Oklahoma? They have four road trips left as well, but they will be paying visits to Texas Tech and TCU during that stretch. That’s what makes the result of this one so important. Oklahoma, with a win, would put themselves in the driver’s seat for the Big 12 title race, and with a (road) game left against West Virginia — the third team tied for first in the league — they would control their own title destiny.

Before I move on, there’s one other interesting point that needs to be made here. When these two teams last played, Hield and Kansas guard Wayne Selden both looked like Big 12 Player of the Year candidates. Since then, Hield has emerged as the clear favorite for National Player of the Year, Selden has fallen off the map. It’s been 10 games since these two last faced off. Selden blew up for 33 in the win over Kentucky, but in the other nine games, he’s averaging just 9.9 points; he’s scored a total of 21 points in three games since beating Kentucky.

THIS ONE’S GOOD TOO: No. 24 Texas at No. 14 Iowa State, 8:30 p.m.

The Longhorns are suddenly looking like a legitimate Big 12 contender, which was not exactly expected to happen during Shaka Smart’s first season in Austin. The Cyclones, on the other hand, are trending in the opposite direction. They just lost at Texas Tech, they’re starting center (Jameel McKay) has been suspended for two games stemming from the way he’s behaved in practice and, even with McKay in the lineup, Iowa State is working with, essentially, a six-man rotation. So here’s the question: Will this game be the turning point in Iowa State’s season, or will Texas continue their assault on the top of the conference?

FIVE THINGS TO WATCH FOR:

1. Duke seems to have righted the ship when it comes to their season. The Blue Devils have won three straight and four of their last five, including Monday’s win over No. 13 Louisville. They get a visit from a streaking No. 7 Virginia at 4:30 p.m. on Saturday, a team that has gone from being atrocious on the road to blowing out Louisville and Pitt in their own buildings.

2. No. 5 Xavier was mollywhopped by Creighton on the road on Tuesday. Butler? They picked up a critical win for their bubble profile at Seton Hall on Wednesday. The two will square off in Hinkle Fieldhouse on Saturday at 2:30 p.m.

3. We’re going to find out a lot about the SEC power structure this weekend. At noon on Saturday, No. 22 Kentucky will travel up to Columbia to take on South Carolina, both of whom are sitting in a tie for first in the league standings. Just an hour later, No. 15 Texas A&M — who was the best team in the SEC but now sits a game out of first place — will trip to Baton Rouge to take on LSU. The Tigers? They’re right there with Kentucky and South Carolina, tied for first in the conference.

4. The bottom-line is this: Gonzaga will not be receiving an at-large bid to the tournament if they do not win at No. 16 SMU on Saturday. Tip is at 10:00 p.m.

5. There are two games that will be featured on NBCSN on Saturday: James Madison at UNC-Wilmington (3:00 p.m.), Hofstra at Delaware (5:00 p.m.).

CLICK HERE to watch these games on NBC Sports Live Extra Saturday afternoon.

OTHER TOP 25 GAMES

  • St. John’s at No. 1 Villanova, 8:00 p.m.
  • Wisconsin at No. 2 Maryland, 6:30 p.m.
  • TCU at No. 10 West Virginia, 12:00 p.m.
  • No. 11 Oregon at Stanford, 4:00 p.m.
  • No. 13 Louisville at Notre Dame, 4:00 p.m.
  • No. 15 Texas A&M at LSU, 1:00 p.m.
  • No. 18 Purdue at Michigan, 2:00 p.m.
  • Georgetown at No. 20 Providence, 12:00 p.m.
  • Texas Tech at No. 21 Baylor, 8:00 p.m.
  • Northern Iowa at No. 25 Wichita State, 12:00 p.m.

OTHER NOTABLE GAMES

  • Wake Forest at N.C. State, 12:00 p.m.
  • Kansas State at Oklahoma State, 12:00 p.m.
  • Arkansas at Ole Miss, 12:00 p.m.
  • Georgia Tech at Clemson, 2:00 p.m.
  • Washington at Colorado, 2:00 p.m.
  • Tennessee at Missouri, 2:00 p.m.
  • East Carolina at Cincinnati, 4:00 p.m.
  • Ohio State at Rutgers, 4:00 p.m.
  • Alabama at Florida, 5:30 p.m.
  • Vanderbilt at Auburn, 6:00 p.m.
  • Saint Louis at VCU, 6:00 p.m.
  • Oregon State at Cal, 6:30 p.m.
  • Georgia at Mississippi State, 8:00 p.m.
  • Tulsa at UConn, 8:00 p.m.
  • Illinois at Northwestern, 8:00 p.m.
  • Creighton at Marquette, 8:00 p.m.

VIDEO: Monmouth hits a game-winner, Bench Mob member tries to disrobe

King Rice
AP
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Monmouth used a 17-2 run in the final minutes to beat Rider on Friday night, a win that will keep the Hawks within striking distance of the kind of an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament should they fall in the MAAC tourney.

The run was capped by star point guard Justin Robinson, who buried this three with three seconds left to put Monmouth up for good, 79-78: