Pregame Shootaround 1.3.13: Pac-12 showdown highlights first Thursday of 2013

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Each day, CollegeBasketballTalk brings you the “Pregame Shootaround,” which will lay out a preview for the slate of games that night. We’ll take a look at some key match-ups and important games, as well as make some predictions and point out what you need to watch for. Take a look below at today’s edition:

Note: The weekend editions of Pregame Shootaround will be published half an hour prior to tip-off of the day’s first game.

Game of the Day: Colorado at No. 3 Arizona (8 PM) 
The Buffaloes and Wildcats met three times last season, with Colorado’s win in the Pac-12 title game punching their ticket to the NCAA tournament and sending Arizona to the NIT. The Wildcats enter this meeting in far better condition across the board, as they have a point guard in Mark Lyons who they can rely on despite the occasional adventures with the basketball and three young big men who are a vast improvement over what the Wildcats had last year.

The key for Brandon Ashley, Grant Jerrett and Kaleb Tarczewski will be to match the energy level of Colorado’s Andre Roberson, who is the conference’s best rebounder and has posted six double-doubles this season. Spencer Dinwiddie is one of the conference’s best perimeter defenders, but it remains to be seen if he draws the assignment of Lyons or Nick Johnson, and Askia Booker can put up points in a hurry if allowed to go off. Arizona’s Solomon Hill and Kevin Parrom will figure prominently in Sean Miller’s game plan, and Colorado will need solid performances from both Xavier Johnson and Josh Scott if they’re to leave Tucson with a victory.

Who’s Getting Upset?: No. 2 Michigan (at Northwestern; 7 PM) 
John Shurna’s graduated and Drew Crawford is done for the season, but in recent years Bill Carmody’s program has been good for at least one home victory that few expect them to get. This could be that game, because for as well as the Wolverines have played this season this is only their second road game of the season (Bradley being the first). After scoring nine points in the season opener Northwestern’s Reggie Hearn has reached double figures in 11 straight games, scoring 18 and grabbing seven rebounds in a 70-68 loss to Stanford (Hearn didn’t play against Brown).

He, David Sobolewski and Tre Demps (12.0 ppg, 9-of-12 3PT over his last four games) need to be at their best in order to combat what Michigan’s Trey Burke, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Nik Stauskas bring to the table if the Wildcats are to win. Another key for Northwestern: keeping Michigan off the offensive boards. The Wolverines are grabbing nearly 36% of their misses, and if Northwestern can limit that they can win.

Mid-Major Matchup of the Day: Belmont at Jacksonville State (8 PM) 
The Bruins make their OVC debut and it won’t be easy either, as the Gamecocks enter with a 2-0 conference record  and have won seven of their last eight games. But there is the strength of schedule factor to address, as Rick Byrd’s team has been tested by teams such as Stanford, Middle Tennessee (Belmont won those), VCU and Kansas. Jacksonville State’s toughest opponent was Oregon, and overall their strength of schedule ranking is down in the 300’s. Ian Clark and Kerron Johnson are one of the better backcourts in college basketball much less the OVC, and if Jacksonville State can’t slow those two down it’s going to be a long night for the home team.

Five Things

1) On Friday it was UCLA that needed a solid victory and the Bruins came through, beating Missouri 97-94 in overtime. Ben Howland’s team opens conference play against a California team that lost to Harvard last week, and with a DirecTV Classic title that doesn’t look all that impressive at this point (they beat Georgia Tech in the semis, but Saint Mary’s losing to Pacific robbed Cal of a marquee matchup in the title game) Mike Montgomery’s team could use a good resume-builder. Allen Crabbe and Justin Cobbs are averaging 37.3 points per game, but given how much attention they’ll draw Richard Solomon needs to step up.

2) Wisconsin looks to win its Big Ten opener for the 10th consecutive season tonight as they host Penn State. Patrick Chambers’ team has won four straight since being blown out by La Salle, but having to navigate conference play without their best player (Tim Frazier) will prove difficult for Penn State.

3) Canisius puts its 2-0 MAAC record on the line as they host Fairfield, who has won five straight (including a win at Saint Joseph’s). The individual matchup between the Golden Griffins’ Billy Baron and Fairfield’s Derek Needham will be worth the cost of admission.

4) Arkansas State looks to separate itself in the West Division of the Sun Belt tonight, but to do so they’ll have to beat a Middle Tennessee squad that’s one of two undefeated teams in the East. Both teams are good when it comes to offensive rebounding but the Blue Raiders are one of the nation’s best when it comes to defending the three. Opponents are shooting just 27.5% from beyond the arc, and Middle Tennessee’s perimeter defenders will be paying close attention to Edward Townsel (16.2 ppg, 40% 3PT).

5) How good is 8-5 Pepperdine? We’ll find out tonight as they host No. 10 Gonzaga in the WCC opener for both. Marty Wilson’s Waves have been a pleasant surprise to this point in the season with senior guard Lorne Jackson and freshman forward Stacy Davis leading the way, but the Bulldogs are an entirely different animal when compared to the teams Pepperdine has played to this point.

The Top 25 

No. 2 Michigan at Northwestern (7 PM)

Colorado at No. 3 Arizona (8 PM)

No. 10 Gonzaga at Pepperdine (9 PM)

Other Notable Games

Northeastern at George Mason (7 PM; NBC Sports Network)

Fairfield at Canisius (7 PM)

Middle Tennessee at Arkansas State (8:05 PM)

Penn State at Wisconsin (8:30 PM)

Loyola Marymount at BYU (9 PM)

California at UCLA (11 PM)

Raphielle also writes for the NBE Basketball Report and can be followed on Twitter at @raphiellej.

Indiana’s OG Anunoby out indefinitely with knee injury

Indiana's OG Anunoby (3) dunks in the second half of an NCAA college basketball game against the Michigan in the quarterfinals at the Big Ten Conference tournament, Friday, March 11, 2016, in Indianapolis. Michigan won 72-69. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)
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The exact extent and specific diagnosis of the injury suffered by Indiana sophomore OG Anunoby isn’t yet public, but the Hoosiers offered a brief update Thursday.

“OG sustained a knee injury this past Wednesday night’s game against Penn State and is in the midst of ongoing medical evaluations,” Indiana coach Tom Crean said in a statement released by the school. “He will be out indefinitely.”

Anunoby went down clutching his knee late in the first half against the Nittany Lions and did not return, with many fearing the severity of the injury after Crean delivered an emotional post-game interview following Indiana’s three-point win.

The 6-foot-8 forward has largely been considered a potential lottery pick in this June’s NBA draft. He’s averaged 11.1 points and 5.4 rebounds per game this season.

Indiana’s first game back is Saturday at home against Michigan State followed by road games against Michigan and Northwestern the following week. The Hoosiers are 13-6 overall and 3-3 in the Big Ten.

Report: Villanova and UConn set to renew series

Villanova's Kyle Lowry (1) goes up for a shot over Connecticut's Josh Boone (21) Monday, February 13, 2006 at the Wachovia Center in Philadelphia, PA. Villanova University (4) upset University of Connecticut (1) 69-64. (Photo by Drew Hallowell/Getty Images)
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Another former Big East Rivalry will be renewed soon.

Villanova and Connecticut are set to resume a home-and-home series next year, according to FanRag Sports’ Jon Rothstein.

The Huskies will host the first game of the series with the return game coming in 2018, though exact dates and venues have not yet been set.

Since the Big East split in recent years, the two teams have met once, in the 2014 NCAA tournament when the Huskies went on to win a national championship.

UConn played Syracuse earlier this year while the Orange also took on St. John’s and Georgetown in a rematch of former Big East rivals now spread across the realignment landscape.

While the new iteration of the Big East is as strong as its best since the basketball schools bolted – with the Wildcats the defending champions and Creighton and Xavier both having big years – it’s encouraging to see that the classic matchups  of the old Big East aren’t being completely abandoned in this new era of hoops, not only for nostalgia purposes but because they remain some of the best brands and programs in the sport.

CBT Podcast: Jeff Goodman of ESPN joins to talk point guards, suspensions and injuries

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Jeff Goodman of ESPN.com joined the podcast today to discuss Allonzo Trier, Mo Watson Jr., what O.G. Anunoby’s knee injury means for Indiana and the point guards you can trust in college hoops this season.

You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes, Stitcher and Audioboom

Bracketology: Resume, metrics have Villanova No. 1

VILLANOVA, PA - DECEMBER 03: Josh Hart #3 of the Villanova Wildcats reacts in front of Lamarr Kimble #0 of the Saint Joseph's Hawks in the first half at The Pavilion on December 3, 2016 in Villanova, Pennsylvania. The Villanova Wildcats defeated the Saint Joseph's Hawks 88-57. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)
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Recently, the NCAA Men’s Basketball Selection Committee made public its intent to evaluate options for integrating additional analytics and metrics into its process for selecting and seeding teams for the NCAA tournament.  How that might eventually look we don’t know.  What metrics will be included?  Will there be any weighting for certain metrics (such as the current Ratings Percentage Index or RPI) over others?  It’s an interesting twist, although not necessarily that new.  Selection Committee members have had various data points at their fingertips for years.  How each chose to use (or not use) ratings such as BPI, KenPom, Sagarin, and others is unknown; none were a part of the “official” process and rarely discussed publicly.

The point today isn’t to have a lengthy discussion about the merits of various analytic tools.  Rather, it provides an opportunity to look at how a new system might look.  One of the concepts mentioned was the potential for a “composite” ranking that would factor in a given set of analytic metrics.  In the interest of today’s bracket update, here’s a look at some rankings and the “composite” for the top six teams on the seed list (data points were through games played on Tuesday).

The metrics included: RPI, NPI (Warren Nolan), ELO Chess, KenPom, Sagarin, and BPI.  Composite ranking is in parenthesis, based upon an average of these metrics.

  1. Villanova (2.33)
  2. Kansas (4.83)
  3. Baylor (9.00)
  4. UCLA (11.16)
  5. Kentucky (3.16)
  6. Gonzaga (6.50)

As you can see, the composite score would favor moving Kentucky and Gonzaga into spots two (2) and four (4) on the seed list, making them No. 1 seeds instead of Baylor and UCLA (in today’s bracket).  Those are not wrong conclusions.  Of course, metrics do not necessarily do an effective job of including actual results.  Example: UCLA won at Kentucky.  An individual result is only one factor (usually a small one) in a team’s overall resume.  But the disparity in numbers (11.16 to 3.16) suggests a notable difference between UK and UCLA.  How the Committee might discuss those two teams given the result vs. numbers would be interesting.

The more relevant takeaway here is that Villanova is No. 1 by a significant margin.  When you factor in the math, the difference between Villanova and Kentucky is a little larger than it looks.  Thus, the Wildcats remain entrenched as the overall No. 1 seed today by almost any measure, resume and otherwise.

In keeping with our theme, we used a similar process, including a metric called Strength of Record (SOR) to help decipher an uninspiring collection of bubble teams.  With that in mind, Kansas State and Wake Forest are the final two at-large entries.  It’s completely erratic near the bottom of the bracket, so this is far from definitive.  History suggests that may not change much.

UPDATED: January 19, 2017

Regarding bracketing principles, can read them for yourself at http://www.ncaa.com. For example: teams from the same conference may now meet before a Regional final, even if fewer than eight teams are selected. The goal is to keep as many teams as possible on their actual seed line.

FIRST FOUR PAIRINGS – Dayton (First Round)

  • Rhode Island vs. Kansas State | Midwest Region
  • Georgia vs. Wake Forest East Region
  • NEW ORLEANS vs. WEBER STATE | Midwest Region
  • MT. ST. MARY’S vs. MORGAN STATE | East Region

BRACKET PROJECTION …

EAST New York                     MIDWEST – Kansas City
Buffalo Tulsa
1) VILLANOVA 1) KANSAS
16) M.S. MARY’S / MORGAN ST 16) NEW ORLEANS / WEBER ST
8) Northwestern 8) Michigan State
9) MID TENNESSEE ST 9) Clemson
Buffalo Sacramento
5) Florida 5) CINCINNATI
12) VERMONT 12) Kansas St / Rhode Island
4) Virginia 4) OREGON
13) RICHMOND 13) NEW MEXICO ST
Milwaukee Greenville
6) MARYLAND 6) South Carolina
11) Georgia / Wake Forest 11) NC-WILMINGTON
3) Butler 3) North Carolina
14) FLA GULF COAST 14) WINTHROP
Orlando Salt Lake City
7) Indiana 7) Saint Mary’s
10) Seton Hall 10) TCU
2) FLORIDA STATE 2) Creighton
15) GA-SOUTHERN 15) BUCKNELL
WEST – San Jose SOUTH – Memphis
Sacramento Tulsa
1) UCLA 1) Baylor
16) TEXAS-SOUTHERN 16) UC-IRVINE
8) Dayton 8) USC
9) Virginia Tech 9) Arkansas
Orlando Salt Lake City
5) Purdue 5) Duke
12) AKRON 12) NEVADA
4) West Virginia 4) ARIZONA
13) CHATTANOOGA 13) VALPARAISO
Milwaukee Indianapolis
6) Wisconsin 6) Minnesota
11) California 11) ILLINOIS STATE
3) Notre Dame 3) Louisville
14) MONMOUTH 14) BELMONT
Salt Lake City Indianapolis
7) SMU 7) Xavier
10) Texas Tech 10) Iowa State
2) GONZAGA 2) KENTUCKY
15) NORTH DAKOTA ST 15) PRINCETON

NOTES on the BRACKET: Villanova is the No. 1 overall seed, followed by Kansas, Baylor, and UCLA

Last Four Byes (at large): Iowa State, Texas Tech, TCU, California

Last Four IN (at large): Georgia, Kansas State, Wake Forest, Rhode Island

First Four OUT (at large): VCU, Miami-FL, Pittsburgh, Michigan

Next four teams OUT (at large): Marquette, Wichita State, Illinois, Penn State

Breakdown by Conference …

ACC (9): FLORIDA STATE, North Carolina, Louisville, Notre Dame, Virginia, Duke, Clemson, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

Big 10 (7): MARYLAND, Purdue, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Indiana, Michigan State, Northwestern

Big 12 (7): KANSAS, Baylor, West Virginia, Iowa State, Texas Tech, TCU, Kansas State

Big East (5): VILLANOVA, Creighton, Butler, Xavier, Seton Hall

SEC (5): KENTUCKY, Florida, South Carolina, Arkansas, Georgia

Pac 12 (5): ARIZONA, UCLA, Oregon, USC, California

Atlantic 10 (3): RICHMOND, Dayton, Rhode Island

American (2): CINCINNATI, SMU

West Coast (2): GONZAGA, Saint Mary’s

Missouri Valley (1): ILLINOIS STATE

Mountain West (1): BOISE STATE

ONE BID LEAGUES: Monmouth (MAAC), Middle Tennessee State (C-USA), Georgia-Southern (SBELT), Princeton (IVY), Weber State (BSKY), Valparaiso (HORIZON), New Orleans (SLND), Chattanooga (STHN), UC-Irvine (BWEST), Akron (MAC), Florida Gulf Coast (ASUN), Belmont (OVC), UNC-Wilmington (CAA), Winthrop (BSO), Morgan State (MEAC), North Dakota State (SUM), New Mexico State (WAC), Vermont (AEAST), Bucknell (PAT), MT. ST. MARY’S (NEC), Texas-Southern (SWAC)

VIDEO: Tom Crean chokes up talking about O.G. Anunoby, Indiana win

HONOLULU, HI - NOVEMBER 11: Head coach Tom Crean of the Indiana Hoosiers paces the sideline during the first half of the second game of the Armed Forces Classic at the Stan Sheriff Center on November 11, 2016 in Honolulu, Hawaii. (Photo by Darryl Oumi/Getty Images)
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Indiana went through the gauntlet of emotions on Wednesday night.

First, one of their most important players, O.G. Anunoby, went down with what appears to be a serious knee injury midway through the first half. Then, the Hoosiers blow a big lead at Penn State. Finally, James Blackmon Jr. bailed them out with a game-winning, buzzer-beating three.

After the game, head coach Tom Crean got choked up talking about the victory:

RELATED: What’s wrong with Indiana?

“As the leader of these guys I’m excited about the way they played considering everything we went through in this game,” Crean said. “There were a lot of tears in that locker room because no one knew what was going on with one of their fallen brothers. And I had to leave a guy who was crying and that wasn’t easy. But we found a way to win the game so I’m proud of them for that.”

Crean gets a lot of heat from fans – both of Indiana and of Indiana’s rivals – but that was a genuine moment of anguish. It’s easy to forget that he’s a human being dealing with more job-related stress than you can imagine. He’s paid handsomely for it, but that doesn’t make always make it easier.