Who’s Getting Upset?: No. 21 UNLV
The Rebels are not playing anywhere near their best basketball right now. They are still without Khem Birch, who still isn’t eligible after transferring in from Pitt, and they made the trip up to Portland on Tuesday without Mike Moser, who is dealing with a hip injury. But even if you threw those two guys into the mix, I’m not convinced that it would make that much of a difference for the Rebels right now; the issue isn’t who is in their front court, it’s who is playing in the back court.
I love Anthony Marshall’s game. I don’t love Anthony Marshall’s game at the point guard spot. Bryce Dejean-Jones and Katin Reinhardt love to shoot, and they aren’t necessarily great shooters, at least not right now. For a team that will have one of, if not the best front line in the country once they have all their pieces available, having a back court that struggles to get those guys the ball is a major problem.
Cal isn’t exactly a Pac-12 contender, but they are a potential tournament team with a similar roster makeup to the Oregon team that beat UNLV earlier this season. The Bears have a talented and potent perimeter attack in Justin Cobbs, Allen Crabbe and Brandon Smith. They don’t have great big men, but they have a couple of serviceable bodies up front. Marshall and Justin Hawkins are just about as good as it gets defensively, but Crabbe and Cobbs have had defenses keying in on them all season long. They’re still averaging 41.1 points combined.
Who else is on Upset Alert?
- Fri. 7:00 pm: Harvard at UConn (ESPN3): The Crimson have had a bit of an up-and-down start to the season, but they have proven, with wins at BC and UMass, that they aren’t afraid of a road game against a bigger opponent. Point guard Siyani Chambers has proven to be more than capable at running the point in Brandyn Curry’s absence, and with a couple of big, athletic guys on the front line, expect Harvard to put up a fight against the Huskies. Remember, Harvard beat UConn last season.
- Sat. 12:00 pm: Long Beach State at No. 7 Ohio State (Big Ten): The bad part about this matchup is that it’s happening before the 49ers have a chance to get the rest of their transfers eligible. With everyone in the mix, the 49ers would have enough talent to throw a scare into OSU. As it is, they are entering this game just two days removed from a 31 point beatdown at Syracuse. That said, James Ennis is a pro and Michael Caffey is one of the more talented point guards on the west coast.
- Sat. 4:00 pm: Colorado State at Illinois-Chicago: Just how good is Illinois-Chicago? Are they truly a competitor for the Horizon League title? Hopefully we can get the answer on Saturday, as UIC hosts a very good Colorado State team. The Flames are 7-1 on the season with wins over Iona and at Northwestern and their only loss coming against New Mexico. Hopefully we’ll get a better feel for this group after they host the Rams.
- Sat. 5:00 pm: Ole Miss at Middle Tennessee (ESPN3): The Rebels have been one of the more pleasant surprises in the SEC this year, as they’ve steamrolled the six opponents they’ve played this season. The problem, however, is that Rutgers is the only one of those opponents worth talking about, and Rutgers is Rutgers. MTSU, on the other hand, is one of the best teams in the Sun Belt and fresh off of a season where they came a couple of late season losses away from being an at-large team.
- Sat. 8:00 pm: No. 8 Arizona at Clemson (ESPN2): Does it matter that Arizona’s point guard play is suspect this season? On the one hand, they had 27 turnovers against Southern Miss this week. But on the other hand, does it matter than Mark Lyons as a 0.78:1 assist-to-turnover ratio when he’s sharing the perimeter with playmakers like Kevin Parrom, Nick Johnson and Solomon Hill?