Indiana tops our preseason NCAA tournament projections


Make way for the Big Ten.  Led by No. 1 overall seed Indiana, four teams – including Michigan State, Ohio State, and Michigan – grab top three seeds in our 2013 NCAA Tournament preseason bracket projection.  Will that be true come March?  Nobody knows.  Crystal balls are always a little cloudy this time of year.

Here’s what we do anticipate:

The Big Ten should be very strong at the top.  Wisconsin and Minnesota also appear to be tournament teams.  If a seventh team emerges, it could be Iowa, Northwestern, Illinois, or Purdue.  The Hawkeyes made a late push last season and make our initial bracket as a First Four participant.

source: Getty Images

Duke, NC State, and North Carolina will wage a war in the ACC.  Any of the three could win it.  Florida State could also be a Top 25 team.

With the additions of VCU and Butler, the Atlantic 10 will be a deep, competitive league. Best guess: four to six teams will be in good position for at-large consideration by season’s end. Seeding will be interesting. In our opening bracket, five A-10 teams make the field but all are seeded between lines 7-10.

Arizona and UCLA will lift the Pac-12.  Both are capable of long runs in the NCAA Tournament.  Another three or four teams will likey be in the at-large picture: Stanford, USC, California, and Washington are among those.

Staying West, how about UNLV and San Diego State?  Both are Top 20 teams.

Kentucky has reloaded with another stellar recruiting class.  Challengers include Florida and league newcomer Missouri.  Don’t overlook Tennessee, either.  The Volunteers begin at No. 21 on the s-curve.

All Kansas does is win Big 12 titles and earn high seeds in March.  No reason for that to change.  Baylor will be in the hunt, too.

And then there’s Louisville, Syracuse, and a host of Big East teams.  Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Marquette, and Pittsburgh will make life interesting for the Cardinals and Orange.

The Road to Atlanta begins Friday.  Here’s to a great season of college hoops.

Find all of our season previews here  |  The year’s burning questions  |  The Twitter must-follow list

Teams in CAPS represent the projected AUTOMATIC bid. Exceptions are made for teams that use an abbreviation (UTEP, BYU, etc). Records are for games against Division I teams only.

FIRST FOUR PAIRINGS – Dayton (First Round)

  • Northern Iowa vs. Colorado | East Region
  • Arkansas vs. Iowa | West Region
  • VMI vs. PRAIRIE VIEW | Midwest


EASTWashington, DC MIDWESTIndianapolis
Lexington Dayton
8. Minnesota 8. St. Joseph’s
9) Kansas State 9) Miami-FL
Salt Lake City San Jose
5) San Diego State 5) Baylor
12) No. Iowa / Colorado 12) South Florida
4) Missouri 4) UCLA
Kansas City Austin
6) Tennessee 6) Notre Dame
11) Saint Louis 11) Colorado State
3) NC State 3) Florida
Auburn Hills Philadelphia
7) Pittsburgh 7) Wisconsin
10) St. Mary’s 10) West Virginia
2) Michigan State 2) DUKE
WEST – Los Angeles SOUTH – Dallas
Kansas City Dayton
8. Marquette 8. Texas
9) Temple 9) Georgetown
Salt Lake City Austin
12) Arkansas / Iowa 12) MURRAY STATE
4) UNLV 4) North Carolina
Auburn Hills Lexington
6) Cincinnati 6) CREIGHTON
11) Oklahoma State 11) OHIO
3) Michigan 3) Ohio State
San Jose Philadelphia
7) Florida State 7) VCU
10) Butler 10) Stanford
2) ARIZONA 2) Syracuse

NOTES on the BRACKET: Indiana is the No. 1 overall seed followed by Louisville, Kentucky and Kansas.

Last Five teams in (at large): South Florida, Arkansas, Colorado, Northern Iowa, Iowa

First Five teams out (at large): Massachusetts, Maryland, USC, Iowa State, BYU

Next Five teams out (at large): Marshall, New Mexico, Illinois State, Northwestern, Alabama

Also considered: California, Oklahoma, Illinois, Virginia, La Salle, UTEP, Houston, Washington, Nevada, Purdue, Delaware, St. Bonaventure, Evansville

Here is the team breakdown by Conference …

Big East (8): Louisville, Syracuse, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Marquette, Georgetown, South Florida

Big Ten (7): Indiana, Michigan State, Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa

Big 12 (6): Kansas, Baylor, Texas, Kansas State, West Virginia, Oklahoma State

SEC (5): Kentucky, Florida, Missouri, Tennessee, Arkansas

ACC (5): Duke, NC State, North Carolina, Florida State, Miami

Atlantic 10 (5): VCU, St. Joseph’s, Temple, Butler, Saint Louis

Pac 12 (3): Arizona, UCLA, Stanford

Mountain West (3): UNLV, San Diego State, Colorado State

West Coast (2): Gonzaga, St. Mary’s

Missouri Valley (2): Creighton, Northern Iowa

Conference USA (1): Memphis

Conference leaders/champions … DREXEL (Colonial), DAVIDSON (Southern), OHIO (MAC), ORAL ROBERTS (Southland), LONG BEACH (Big West), MURRAY STATE (OVC), MANHATTAN (MAAC), MONTANA (Big Sky), UTAH STATE (WAC), SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (Summit), LEHIGH (Patriot), LIU BROOKLYN (NEC), MERCER (Atlantic Sun), PRINCETON (Ivy), VMI (Big South), SAVANNAH ST (MEAC), VALPARAISO (Horizon) STONY BROOK (America East), NORTH TEXAS (Sun Belt), PRAIRIE VIEW (SWAC)

Michigan State playing zone? It’s possible

Tom Izzo
Associated Press
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Throughout Tom Izzo’s tenure at Michigan State the team’s half-court man-to-man defense has been a staple, and the Spartans have generally proven difficult to have a high rate of offensive success against. The reliance on that defense is why Izzo’s conversations earlier this summer about using some token full-court pressure due to the shortening of the shot clock caught some people off-guard.

According to the Detroit Free Press there’s another wrinkle the Spartans may use, and it’s likely that this wrinkle will show up more often than the full-court press. During Friday’s opening practice the Spartans worked on a 2-3 zone, and Izzo wants his assistants to make sure the team works on the defense consistently throughout the season.

That’s also why zone in general isn’t going to get heavy play at MSU, but having it as a tool could be beneficial — especially in games with touch fouls on the perimeter called in droves.

“I told (my assistant coaches): ‘You hold me accountable to working on it every day some’ … I have a tendency to drift off on that, and I don’t want to drift off on it,” Izzo said of the 2-3 zone. “But we will be, rest assured, a 90-some percent man-to-man team still and hopefully take some of those principles to zone.”

As noted in the story one of the risks in using pressure is allowing quality shots, which is why it’s unlikely that Michigan State will go to it. But even with Izzo vowing that his team will work on the zone, that doesn’t mean they’ll be playing it as often as Syracuse does.

Man-to-man has been Michigan State’s staple and it will continue to be. But it doesn’t hurt to look for other ways to keep opponents from getting the looks they want, especially if teams have five fewer seconds to find those shots.

Virginia used 3-on-3 to adjust to new shot clock

Malcolm Brogdon
Associated Press
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When the college basketball rules committee made the decision to trim the shot clock down to 30 second from 35, one reason for the switch was the desire to improve offensive production. With offensive numbers at their lowest point in years, proponents of the move see the shot clock change as a necessary move if scoring is to improve.

Whether or not that winds up being the case will be seen throughout the upcoming season, but teams are still having to make adjustments during the preseason.

Virginia, which has played at a snail’s pace (and with great success, mind you) in recent years, made some adjustments to their summer work in anticipation of playing with a 30-second shot clock. One adjustment was more games of 3-on-3 with a 15-second shot clock, which forced all involved to be more decisive in their offensive decision-making.

While the pack-line defense will always be a staple of Tony Bennett’s teams, the feeling in Charlottesville is that they’ve got the offensive firepower needed to both play faster and be more efficient offensively than they were in 2014-15 (29th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency per Ken Pomeroy). One of the players who will lead the way is senior guard Malcolm Brogdon, who led the team in scoring and was a first team All-ACC selection, and he discussed the team’s outlook with Mike Barber of the Richmond Times-Dispatch.

And even though Anderson’s highlight-reel shot blocking was the thing that frequently fueled fast-breaks for U.Va. last season, Brogdon and [Anthony] Gill said they expect this year’s team to actually push the tempo even more.

“I think we’re going to be a team that gets out and runs more,” Brogdon said. “I think we’ll have three guards on the floor, most of the time, will be able to handle the ball as a point guard and get out in transition. I think we’ll play a lot faster.”

Brogdon and Gill are two of the team’s three returning starters with point guard London Perrantes being the other, and the Cavaliers also return most of their reserves from last year’s rotation. That experience will help them on both ends of the floor as they prepare for a run at a third straight ACC regular season title. And in theory it also allows them to extend themselves a bit more offensively than they did a season ago.