Atlantic 10 Preview: New additions + returning talent = Luh-Oh-Ded

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Throughout the month of October, CollegeBasketballTalk will be rolling out our previews for the 2012-2013 season. Check back at 9 a.m. and just after lunch every day, Monday-Friday, for a new preview item.

To browse through the preview posts we’ve already published, click here. To look at the rest of the Conference Previews we’ve published, click here. For a schedule of our previews for the month, click here.

You’ll be hard-pressed to find a conference race that will be more entertaining to follow than the Atlantic 10.

For starters, there are now 16 teams in this conference, which, with a 16 game league schedule, means that each team will only be playing one conference opponent in a home-and-home. You need to make up a game or two in the standings? Don’t count on winning head-to-head. You’ll have to hope someone slips up on the road. That, in all likelihood, will happen quite often, however, because of the 16 A-10 teams, six — six!!! — received a first-place vote in the preseason poll. Those six teams didn’t include Xavier, Dayton or Richmond, who are three of the best programs in the league.

I hope they already have clearly defined end-of-the-year tie-breakers.

Perhaps the most interesting story line involving the conference during the 2012-2013 season will be just how many teams they can get into the NCAA tournament, and that’s going to depend heavily on how well the teams in the league perform in non-conference play. If the top of the league can land some upsets over high-major (read: high-RPI) opponents and the bottom-feeders can avoid getting picked off by some low-major (read: low-RPI) foes …

I’ll put it like this: given some of the question marks in the middle of the bigger conferences, there are (at least) six teams in the A-10 that are, on paper, of NCAA tournament quality.

Five Things to Know

1. Rick Majerus won’t be coaching the Billikens this season: And he may never coach again due to a serious, potentially life-threatening health issue. As a team, this shouldn’t have a huge impact on the competitiveness of this group. (At least not as much as the broken foot suffered by Kwamain Mitchell.) This is a veteran group that spent a couple of years playing together. But, as the saying goes, games that are won by five points or less are won by coaching, and there are few in-game tacticians as well-regarded as Majerus. In a league as balanced as the A-10, a couple of possessions could end up being the difference between a first-place and a fourth-place finish.

2. UMass is back: The Minutemen’s entire history as a basketball program can, more or less, be tied to John Calipari and Marcus Camby. Beyond that, well, there isn’t much to talk about. This season, however, there will be. Chaz Williams, one of the nation’s most underrated point guards, returns to lead the way along with all but one member of last year’s rotation. Throw in Sampson Carter and Cady Lalanne, who were injured last year, and Derek Kellogg should have enough to make a run at an NCAA tournament bid.

3. What happened to Xavier?: The 2011-2012 season was saved when Xavier was able to make a run to the Sweet 16, thanks in part to Lehigh’s upset of Duke. The following offseason wasn’t. Tu Holloway and Kenny Frease graduated. Mark Lyons transferred to Arizona. Two recruits in this class were ruled ineligible. Talented 2013 recruit Chris Thomas decommited. Incoming transfer Isaiah Philmore was suspended for three games. Dez Wells was (wrongfully?) expelled. Not only will this be a tough year for the Muskies, but with the bad press of the brawl getting followed up with this kind of roster turnover, how long will the downswing last?

4. Temple and Charlotte will play their final season of A-10 ball: Next year, the Owls will be headed for the Big East, where their football program already began competing this season. Charlotte will be making the move to Conference USA, which, again, is a move driven by football.

5. Khalif Wyatt will be playing in Temple’s A-10 swan song: It was in doubt for a while for Temple’s leading returning scorer after the senior got busted for solicitation in Atlantic City, on his 21st birthday, no less. But the charges were reduced and head coach Fran Dunphy doled out what he felt was a proper punishment, so Wyatt and his 17.1 ppg will be on the floor for the Owls this year.

Impact Newcomers

1. Butler and VCU: We knew the conference was going to be tough after the 2011-2012 season ended, but when the departures of Temple and Charlotte created a need for the league, they courted two of the country’s most charming mid-majors. That courtship was not only successful, it happened quickly, as the Rams and the Bulldogs, both borderline top 25 teams this season, accepted the offer for immediate entry.

2. Rotnei Clarke and Kellen Dunham, Butler: Butler was a tough defensive team last season in the way that Butler always seems to be a tough defensive team. They’ll be next season as well, because, despite losing Ronald Nored to graduation, the Bulldogs return the majority of their young talent. Clarke, a senior transfer from Arkansas, and Dunham, a top 100 freshman, both address Butler’s biggest weakness from a year ago: perimeter shooting. Their role — particularly Clarke, who is making a transition to the point — became all the more important when Chrishawn Hopkins was dismissed from school.

3. Semaj Christon, Xavier: As much as Xavier lost, there are still some pieces on the roster — Justin Martin, Travis Taylor, Brad Redford, Jeff Robinson. Someone is going to have to get them the ball, and Christon — a four-star prospect that spent last season at a prep school — will have to be that guy. If the Musketeers are going to be competitive, he needs to live up to the hype.

4. Jake O’Brien, Temple: Temple has a couple of impact newcomers this year — Dalton Pepper, Daniel Dingle — but O’Brien may be the most important. A 1,000 point scorer at BU, O’Brien is a 6-foot-9 graduate transfer that may end up being the biggest player in Dunphy’s rotation.

5. Jordan Hare, Rhode Island: We knew that the Hurleys would make this program relevant. This season will be a bit of a holdover year, as the Rams are starting over with the new regime, but Hare, who was a top 100 recruit at one point in his career, headlines a solid recruiting class this season. With reinforcements coming next year — transfers getting eligible, more top 100 recruits coming in — the Rams are on the way up.

Breakout Players

1. Treveon Graham, So., VCU: Graham was very productive in limited minutes as a freshman, but what makes him such a trendy pick is that he plays the same role — big guard, can rebound at the four spot, hits threes — that made Brad Burgess so effective last season for the Rams.

2. CJ Aiken, Jr., St. Joseph’s: The Hawks bring back everyone from last season, which is part of the reason they were picked to win the conference, so there may not be an enormous increase in the numbers that Aiken produces. But I think Aiken will end up becoming a first round prospect, ‘breaking out’ in the sense that he becomes a more recognizable name nationally. He’s long and athletic, a terrific shot blocker and a 6-foot-9 combo-forward with three-point range.

3. Jerrell Wright, So., La Salle: The Explorers are the sleeper in the A-10, and Wright is a big reason why. After averaging 9.8 points and 5.6 boards in less than 20 minutes as a freshman, the 6-foot-8, 240 pounder returns as one of the only big men ready to play major minutes.

4. Cody Ellis, Sr., St. Louis: Usually, seniors aren’t the kind of players that will breakout. But with minutes opening up at the four thanks to the graduation of Brian Conklin and Kwamain Mitchell laid up with a broken foot, Ellis will be taking over the load as the Billiken’s primary scorer.

5. Khyle Marshall, Jr., Butler: I predicted Marshall would breakout last year, and I’m sticking with it. He’s talented, he’s athletic, and he’ll have more space inside with the floor spread by Clarke and Dunham.

Player of the Year: Chaz Williams, Jr., UMass

Williams averaged 16.9 points, 6.2 assists, 4.4 boards and 2.2 steals while shooting 41.9% from three a season ago. Only a junior, he clearly has learned how to thrive in Derek Kellogg’s system. UMass returns enough pieces this season that they could finish in the top four in the conference and have a shot at earning a trip to the NCAA tournament. If UMass does that and Williams repeats his performance from last season, he’ll deserve the Player of the Year award.

All-Conference Team

G: Chaz Williams, Jr., UMass*
G: Kevin Dillard, Sr., Dayton
F: Khalif Wyatt, Sr., Temple
F: Chris Gaston, Sr., Fordham
C: CJ Aiken, Jr., St. Joseph’s

Coach under pressure: Chris Mack, Xavier

This has less to do with basketball than it does everything else that’s gone on in his program. Between the brawl, the recruits that couldn’t get eligible, the expulsion of Dez Wells (again, unwarranted expulsion?), and the transfer of Mark Lyons, there aren’t a lot of bright spots in the Xavier program. This season has the potential to be one where Mack can showcase his coaching acumen, working with the bad hand he’s been dealt and getting this group to play above their talent level. But it also has the potential to turn into a dumpster fire, and if disaster strikes, I can’t imagine many folks in and around Xavier will be happy with a bottom-four finish in the league.

Predicted Finish

1. VCU: I believe in ‘Havoc’. VCU is really good at running their system, forcing turnovers and getting their opponents to play out of control. And the talent on the roster is good enough to succeed at this level.
2. St. Josephs’s: This is their year. They’ve had the talent, now they have the experience. Carl Jones, Langston Galloway and Halil Kanicevic deserved more of a mention in this preview.
3. Butler: With Hopkins on the roster, I think Butler would be up there with VCU as the best team in the league. But I’m not sold on Clarke being able to run the point. Losing Nored will hurt more than people believe as well.
4. St. Louis: They’d be No. 1 if Majerus was healthy. They’d be second if Kwamain Mitchell was. Tough breaks.
5. UMass: Williams is one of the most entertaining guards in the country, and this year he’ll have more help.
6. Temple: Temple as a lot of good wings and combo-forwards on their roster. I’m worried about the point guard spot as well as the post.
7. Dayton: Kevin Dillard is one of the most talented players in the league, but is there enough around him to push into the top six?
8. La Salle: The sleepers! The Atlantic 10 is so deep at the point guard spot that Tyreek Duren is criminally slept on.
9. Richmond: Chris Mooney is still in the rebuilding phase after losing Kevin Anderson and Justin Harper. He’ll get them there, but it won’t be this year.
10. Xavier: A talented freshman point guard leading unproven veterans? I’ll believe it when I see it.
11. Charlotte: Alan Major actually has a sneakily good roster at his disposal, headlined by an all-league caliber big man in Chris Braswell.
12. Rhode Island: Maybe my faith in the Hurleys is too strong, but I just don’t see a way they field a team that isn’t competitive.
13. George Washington: I think that Mike Lonergan will eventually turn GW into a competitive program in this league. But right now, he just doesn’t have the horses to stay in the race.
14. St. Bonaventure: Andrew Nicholson ain’t walkin’ through that door!
15. Fordham: Chris Gaston is a special player. It’s a shame that he’ll never have a chance to play on a relevant team in college.
16. Duquesne: With everything they lost — their star in TJ McConnell, their coaching staff — I can’t see how a school with no basketball history does anything different.

Rob Dauster is the editor of the college basketball website Ballin’ is a Habit. You can find him on twitter @robdauster.

College Basketball Power Rankings: Duke to No. 1, Xavier and Minnesota climb

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At this point, there really is no choice but to put Duke at No. 1 in the Power Rankings this week.

That’s what happens when you’re a consensus top three team in the preseason and, five days into the regular season, you pick off another top three team. Hell, we had Michigan State ranked No. 1 in the NBC Sports Power Rankings last week.

At this point, Michigan State is still No. 2 for me. Their one loss this season came on a night where Grayson Allen went crazy and they gave up 25 offensive rebounds and committed 18 turnovers, and they still were in the game down the stretch. Beyond that, the only teams in the top 25 that have lost so far this season are Kentucky, Northwestern and Providence. The Wildcats fell to Kansas while playing their best game of the season, while Northwestern and Providence both dropped out of the top 25.

But the truth is that, as of today, we still don’t really know anything about these teams. Arizona, Villanova and Wichita State didn’t have to play anywhere near their best basketball to start the season 3-0. The same can be said for anyone that is currently sitting at or near the top of these rankings.

This week is when we start to really find out about them. Arizona is playing in the Battle 4 Atlantis. Duke, Michigan State, North Carolina and Florida are in the PK80. Wichita State is out in Maui. There are events in New York City all week. UCLA, Creighton, Baylor and Wisconsin are in Kansas City. There are games in Las Vegas and Orlando and California

And while my opinion on the glut of exempt events still stands, I do think that we learn more about, say, Wichita State seeing them play potentially overmatched opponents in Maui over the course of three straight days than we do seeing them beat the brakes off of mid-major competition in Koch Arena.

Anyway, here is the NBC Sports Top 25 in its entirety:

1. Duke, 4-0 (Last Week: No. 2)
2. Michigan State, 3-1 (1)
3. Arizona, 3-0 (3)
4. Kansas, 3-0 (4)
5. Villanova, 3-0 (5)
6. Wichita State, 2-0 (6)
7. Florida, 3-0 (7)
8. Cincinnati, 3-0 (8)
9. USC, 4-0 (9)
10. Miami, 3-0 (10)
11. Xavier, 3-0 (14)
12. Texas A&M, 2-0 (11)
13. Minnesota, 4-0 (19)
14. Louisville, 2-0 (12)
15. Notre Dame, 3-0 (13)
16. Seton Hall, 4-0 (15)
17. Kentucky, 3-1 (16)
18. North Carolina, 2-0 (17)
19. Saint Mary’s, 4-0 (21)
20. Alabama, 3-0 (22)
21. Purdue, 4-0 (24)
22. Gonzaga, 3-0 (23)
23. UCLA, 3-0 (18)
24. Texas, 3-0 (NR)
25. Texas Tech, 4-0 (NR)

NEW ADDITIONS: 24. Texas, 25. Texas Tech
DROPPED OUT: 20. Northwestern, No. 25 Providence

Texas Tech mollywhops No. 21 Northwestern, stakes claim to second-best in Big 12

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No. 21 Northwestern was, technically, never even tied with Texas Tech on Sunday evening.

The Wildcats were given a technical foul at the start of the game because their players were not in the scorebook, which was more than adequate foreshadowing for what was to come. Keenan Evans made a free throw before the ball was tipped, the Red Raiders would then score the next eight points and jump out to a 23-5 lead that Chris Collins’ club never recovered.

Northwestern never was within single-digits again, let alone close enough to make this a game. They lost 85-49, the worst loss for the Northwestern program in nearly a decade, since Nov. 27th, 2007.

I could recite the stats to you, if you’d like. Northwestern shot 26.7 percent from the floor. They were 6-for-23 from three. Texas Tech forced 17 turnovers, and Northwestern had 12 field goals to 11 steals for the Red Raiders.

It was as bad of a beatdown as you’ll see between two teams in the NCAA tournament discussion.

It’s easy to read into this loss, and the loss that Northwestern suffered at home against Creighton on Wednesday, and think that the Wildcats are not yet cut out for being the hunted, and that might be fair. As cliché as it is, there is something to be said for the way an opponent plays when you are the quality win. At some point, Northwestern is going to have to prove they can handle that.

But Sunday was not about Northwestern.

Sunday was about Texas Tech.

It was about Chris Beard putting the Big 12 on notice.

This team is tough and they are old. They have size and athleticism. They have a star in lead guard Keenan Evans and a roster that is more than willing to put in the work on the defensive end of the floor. Most importantly, however, is that Beard has built a team full of guys that all have something to prove. There aren’t any four or five-star freshmen on his roster. The elite recruits that he does have are all transfers, cast-offs from other programs.

That’s just how Beard like it.

Now I don’t think the Red Raiders are going to be winning the Big 12 and ending Kansas’ streak of 14 straight Big 12 titles. But I do think that they’ll be right there in the mix for the title of second-best in the Big 12, and I’m not sure I would have felt that way before the start of the season.

Miles Bridges hurt as No. 2 Michigan State cruises past Stony Brook

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EAST LANSING, Mich. (AP) — Miles Bridges stayed in school to chase a national championship instead of cashing in on his potential in the NBA.

Three games into his sophomore season, he is hurt.

Bridges scored 20 points before limping off the court after injuring his left ankle, casting a pall over No. 2 Michigan State as it beat Stony Brook 93-71 on Sunday night.

“Thank God it’s not a high-ankle sprain,” coach Tom Izzo said. “It’s just a sprain where he rolled it. He’ll be day to day.”

The Spartans (2-1) bounced back from their loss to top-ranked Duke with a win that will be remembered as being costly if Bridges’ injury lingers.

Bridges was fouled with 8:32 left in the game as he went into the lane with the ball and awkwardly planted his left foot, rolling his ankle. After trying to stay in the game to shoot free throws, the preseason All-America player went back to the bench briefly before walking toward the locker room.

“By Tuesday morning, I’ll know more,” Izzo said. “Miles is tough enough to play through it but we’re not going to take any chances.”

Nick Ward scored a season-high 22 points, Joshua Langford had a career-high 19 points and Cassius Winston scored a season-high 13 points and had six assists for the Spartans.

The Seawolves (0-4) led for much of the first half, holding Bridges to two points as they led 22-15 midway through the first half.

Stony Brook’s Elijah Olaniyi scored 16, Akwasi Yeboah had 15 points, UC Iroegbu scored 12 and Tyrell Sturdivant added 10 points.

“The biggest positive was coming out and competing for 40 minutes,” coach Jeff Boals said. “We kept on fighting. I think we led 12 1/2 minutes in the first half. Our biggest thing was coming out and getting off to a good start, just to build some confidence.”

BIG PICTURE

Stony Brook: The America East Conference team made 13 of 26 3-pointers against one of the top teams in the country. That kind of shooting can help the Seawolves pull off an upset, something they had a chance to do in setbacks against Maryland and Connecticut.

“We’re 0-4 right now and it doesn’t look good on wins and losses, but we’ve competed in every game we’ve played,” Boals said.

Michigan State: Bridges’ health is a key factor for the team, and for himself. Izzo isn’t sure how long Bridges will be out.

POLL IMPLICATIONS

The Spartans will slip in The Associated Press poll after losing to the top-ranked Blue Devils and perhaps because Bridges is injured.

HUMBLED AT HOME

Michigan State standout freshman Jaren Jackson fouled out in 14 scoreless minutes. He missed his only shot, a 3-pointer, and had a team-high three turnovers.

“This might be the only time in that kid’s career he doesn’t score,” Boals said. “He is an unbelievable talent.”

The 6-foot-11 Jackson, rated as one of the top prospects for the 2018 NBA draft, was averaging 16 points and 10 rebounds.

“Jaren’s a great player, but he is a young player,” Langford said. “He’s way ahead of where I was.”

UP NEXT

Stony Brook: In its home opener on Wednesday night, hosts Brown.

Michigan State: Plays DePaul on Thursday night in Oregon at the Phil Knight Invitational. The Spartans will play the Ducks or Connecticut in the semifinals on Friday and could face No. 9 North Carolina on Sunday.

“It’s not the biggest stage like Duke was, but it’s time to get back to what we lost against Duke,” Langford said.

Donald Trump’s response to LaVar Ball: ‘I should’ve left them in jail!’

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I told you this was going to happen.

After LaVar Ball downplayed Donald Trump’s role in bringing home his son, LiAngelo, and the three other UCLA players that were arrested for shoplifting in China last week, Trump responded by taking to twitter and saying that he should have left American citizens in prison in a non-democratic, authoritarian country because they will not personally acknowledge his efforts enough:

Sigh.

Now we await LaVar’s response.

Five-star 2018 recruit Anfernee Simons could test NBA Draft process

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Five-star Class of 2018 guard Anfernee Simons is interested in potentially entering the 2018 NBA Draft.

According to a report from Jonathan Givony of ESPN, the former Louisville commit will likely be eligible to jump to the NBA straight out of high school since he graduated high school last year while turning 19 next June. The 6-foot-4 Simons, considered the No. 16 overall prospect in the Rivals’ Class of 2018 national rankings, is playing a post-grad season at IMG Academy for 2017-18 after reclassifying as a sophomore.

If Simons opts to go pro than college basketball loses a potential star as he’s been shooting up the national rankings over the past year. Simons was committed to the Cardinals since the beginning of his junior year but he opened things up once former head coach Rick Pitino lost his job in a fallout from the FBI investigation on college basketball.

Simons started his season at the National Prep Showcase this weekend as six NBA teams sent people to watch him play, according to Givony’s report.

It’ll be fascinating to see what happens in this situation as Simons hasn’t done much with the recruiting process over the last several months. Now that NBA teams are already watching him play, Simons could follow in Thon Maker’s footsteps and turn pro right away.