Mid-Major Power Rankings: The Top 15

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Throughout the month of October, CollegeBasketballTalk will be rolling out our previews for the 2012-2013 season. Check back at 9 a.m. and just after lunch every day, Monday-Friday, for a new preview item.

To browse through the preview posts we’ve already published, click here. To look at the rest of The Lists we’ve published, click here. For a schedule of our previews for the month, click here.

The definition of what, exactly, makes a “mid-major” program is one of the more contentious debates in college basketball.

Is it simply every program outside of the six conferences associated with the BCS? Does it have to do with the amount of money spent on the program? Or the history of successes of the program? Or the size of the fan base? Or who they are able to recruit?

To simplify things, we eliminated everyone from the BCS leagues, the Atlantic 10, the Mountain West, Conference USA and the top three programs — BYU, Gonzaga and St. Mary’s — out of the WCC. We feel it is more important to celebrate some of the little guys than it is to include teams on a list they — and their fans — want no part of.

So without further ado, here are our Mid-major Power Rankings:

1. Creighton: The Bluejays should not be a secret to anyone heading into the season. They are going to be ranked in every national poll that has any credibility and have a preseason NBCSports.com First Team All-American on the roster in Doug McDermott. Offensively, Creighton is one of the most entertaining teams in the country to watch, as they pass and shoot the ball as well as anyone in the country. But will they be able to get stops? Creighton ranked 178th in defensive efficiency, according to Kenpom, last season.

  • Player to know: Sophomore forward Doug McDermott averaged 23.2 points and 8.2 boards last year.
  • Can’t-miss game: Creighton kicks off the season against the No. 2 team in these rankings on Nov. 9th, but dates with Wisconsin (Nov. 23rd) and St. Joseph’s (Dec. 1st) are worth your time as well.

2. North Texas: Tony Mitchell is the reason that the Mean Green will have plenty of chances to play in front of NBA scouts this season, but there is more to this team than simply a potential lottery pick. Chris Jones and Jordan Williams should both be eligible after missing the second half of last season due to academics. Alzee Williams returns for another season, as does Oklahoma State transfer Roger Franklin. New head coach Tony Benford also adds former Marquette and Oklahoma-signee TJ Taylor. There’s a lot of talent here.

  • Player to know: Sophomore forward Tony Mitchell averaged 14.7 points, 10.0 boards and 3.0 blocks last year. He’ll be a first round draft pick.
  • Can’t-miss game: Mitchell vs. McDermott on Nov. 9th will be fun, as will a date with St. Louis on Dec. 5th.

3. Drexel: The Dragons were arguably the best team left on the wrong side of the NCAA tournament’s bubble last year, as they won 25 of their last 26 games after getting their full team on the floor only to be toppled by VCU in the CAA tournament title game. The Dragons will have to replace the burly Samme Givens inside, but they will once again be a physical, defensive-minded team that will leave their opponent’s bruised and beat up.

  • Player to know: Junior guard Frantz Massenat (13.7 points, 4.5 assists) is their leader, but sophomore wing Damion Lee (12.0 points, 4.4 boards) is a future CAA Player of the Year in his own right.
  • Can’t-miss game: The Dragons have a tough slate of mid-major foes, but their two biggest non-conference games come at St. Mary’s (Nov. 22nd) and at home against St. Joseph’s (Dec. 31st).

4. South Dakota State: Last year, SDSU was able to snag the Summit’s auto-bid when Oral Roberts was upset in the conference tournament, and they gave Baylor a fight in the opening round. The Jackrabbits bring back all but one player from that team, including one of the nation’s best fantasy players in Nate Wolters. Three-point shooting is the name of the game for Scott Nagy’s club, as he surrounds Wolters with a group of guys that don’t miss when they’re open.

  • Player to know: Senior guard Nate Wolters averaged 21.2 points, 5.1 boards and 5.9 assists last year.
  • Can’t-miss game: The Jackrabbits play a number of road games against potential tournament teams before conference play begins, but the two to keep an eye on are Dec. 4th at Minnesota and Dec. 22nd at New Mexico.

5. Davidson: This is the best Davidson team that Bob McKillop has had since Steph Curry led the Wildcats to within a Jason Richards three of the 2008 Final Four. The Wildcats are coming off of a season where they rolled through the SoCon with a 16-2 record and went into Kansas City and knocked off the national runners-up in Kansas. Oh, and they bring back every single player that was on that team.

  • Player to know: Forwards De’Mon Brooks and Jake Cohen combined to average 30.0 points and 12.3 boards last year.
  • Can’t-miss game: Davidson will play at New Mexico at 2 a.m. on Nov. 13th during ESPN’s Kickoff Marathon, but they’ll have a chance of landing an upset in Cameron Indoor against Duke on Jan. 2nd.

6. Murray State: Murray State was America’s darling last season, winning their first 23 games of the season. And while they bring back an all-american in Isaiah Canaan, the loss of three key role players will be difficult to overcome.

  • Player to know: Senior guard Isaiah Canaan is a preseason NBCSports.com First Team All-American after averaging 19.0 points, 3.6 assists and shooting 45.6% from three.
  • Can’t-miss game: Murray State heads to Dayton on Dec. 22nd and hosts Valpo a week later, but their best games might end up being league dates with Belmont and Tennessee State.

7. Valparaiso: The Crusaders will have one of the best frontlines at the mid-major level with Ryan Broekhoff and Kevin Van Wijk returning and Indiana transfer Bobby Capobianco becoming eligible. Valpo could have won the Horizon last season if it wasn’t for some bad luck with injuries and the flu.

  • Player to know: Broekhoff and Van Wijk combined for 29.0 points and 13.7 boards last year.
  • Can’t-miss game: The Crusaders travel to New Mexico (Dec. 2nd) and St. Louis (Dec. 8th) within the span of a week, but their most interesting game might be dates with Cleveland State and Detroit in league play.

t-8. Bucknell and Lehigh: It’s almost impossible to separate these two teams. They’re by far the two favorites to win the Patriot League, and while most are going to remember CJ McCollum and the Mountainhawks thanks to their upset-win over Duke in the NCAA tournament, they’ll be overlooking the fact that the Bison also return their top four scorers, including former Patriot Player of the Year Mike Muscala.

  • Players to know: The senior big man Muscala averaged 17.0 points, 9.1 boards and 1.7 blocks last season and will be one of the nation’s best mid-major big men. McCollum is a preseason all-american this season after averaging
  • Can’t-miss game: Lehigh plays at Baylor while Bucknell plays at Purdue on Nov. 9th. Then, on Jan. 5th, Lehigh is at VCU and Bucknell is at Missouri. But circle Jan. 23rd and Feb. 20th on your calender; that’s when these two square off.

10. Montana: Losing Will Cherry to a broken foot hurts a lot, but he’ll be back by league play and back to 100% by the NCAA tournament.

  • Player to know: Cherry is a potential star, but in his absence watch out for junior guard Kareem Jamar (13.6 points, 5.6 boards, 3.7 assists, 44.1% threes).
  • Can’t-miss game: Unfortunately, Cherry will be out against Colorado State and BYU, and maybe even against South Dakota State on Dec. 15th.

11. Ohio: The Bobcats return every player of consequence from last season’s team that won the MAC and took North Carolina to overtime in the Sweet 16.

  • Player to know: It seems like so long go that senior guard DJ Cooper (14.7 points, 5.7 assists, 2.3 steals) led Ohio to an upset of No. 3 Georgetown in the 2009 NCAA tournament.
  • Can’t-miss game: Dec. 5th at Memphis will be a terrific matchup, as will Dec. 19th at UMass.

12. Long Island: The Blackbirds avoided a disaster as four of their players — including star big men Julian Boyd and Jamal Olasewere — were reinstated to the team and given two game suspensions for their involvement in an on-campus fight.

  • Players to know: Olasewere and Boyd get all the publicity, but it is point guard Jason Brickman (9.6 points, 7.3 assists) who is this team’s Kendall Marshall.
  • Can’t-miss game: The third and fourth games on LIU’s schedule: Maryland and Kentucky. Good thing their bigs will be back.

13. Northern Iowa: The Panthers are a sleeper in the MVC, as they bring back seven of their top eight players from last season. Leading returning scorer Anthony James will miss the first three games of the regular season after being suspended.

  • Player to know: Senior forward Jake Koch (8.5 points, 5.4 boards, 2.7 assists) is back from what feels like the 27th straight season UNI has had a Koch on their roster.
  • Can’t-miss game: Beyond the entire MVC schedule? Louisville (Nov. 22nd), at UNLV (Dec. 19th) and St. Mary’s (Dec. 22nd).

14. Detroit: Detroit will be one of the favorites to win the Horizon as Ray McCallum, one of the most talented players at the mid-major level, is back for another season. He’ll likely be the the league’s Preseason Player of the Year.

  • Player to know: McCallum is an easy pick, but keep an eye on uber-athletic wing Doug Anderson, who does things like this.
  • Can’t-miss game: Detroit plays a loaded schedule, but the highlight will probably be at trip to the Carrier Dome to take on Syracuse on Dec. 17th.

15. LBSU: With all that the 49ers lost last season, including all-everything guard Casper Ware, it’s easy to forget that Big West Player of the Year candidate James Ennis returns, as does potential star Michael Caffey. They’ll be joined by a handful of talented transfers, headlined by former top 25 recruit Keala King.

  • Player to know: Caffey, a sophomore, had some really promising performances spelling Ware at the point a year ago.
  • Can’t-miss game: The 49ers play every: at USC, at home against UNC, at Arizona, at Syracuse, at Ohio State, at UCLA.

Keep an eye on: Belmont, George Mason, Harvard, Illinois State, Iona, Manhattan, Princeton, Tennessee State, Utah State, Wichita State

Rob Dauster is the editor of the college basketball website Ballin’ is a Habit. You can find him on twitter @robdauster.

Arizona’s Sean Miller: ‘I am not a candidate’ at Pitt

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With speculation mounting about who Pitt will hire to replace Kevin Stallings as their new head coach, current Arizona head coach Sean Miller released a statement saying that he is not in the running to fill the opening.

“I am not a candidate for the University of Pittsburgh men’s basketball head coaching vacancy. I wish them well in their search for a new coach,” the statement read.

Miller is a native of Pittsburgh and an alumni of the school — he’s the guy that had the assist on Jerome Lane’s famous dunk — and with the issues that are currently swirling around him and the Arizona program, there was speculation that he was looking for an escape plan.

Maybe he wasn’t.

Maybe he was and the Pitt administration decided they couldn’t risk hiring someone who had an assistant coach arrested in the FBI’s sweep of college basketball and who himself may be on wiretaps talking about who knows what. Releasing this statement would then be a way for him to save face and say he was never interested.

And then maybe there’s option No. 3: Pitt has won the Dan Hurley sweepstakes.

As it stands, both the Panthers and UConn are in the process of chasing after the Rhode Island head coach, and it’s not uncommon in coaching searches for a coach to announce that he is not a candidate for the job after the job decides they want someone else. Call it a professional courtesy.

But that’s neither here nor there.

What we do know now is that Sean Miller will not be the next head coach at Pitt.

Report: Notre Dame’s Bonzie Colson suffers another fracture in foot

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Bonzie Colson rushed back from a broken foot to try and help his Notre Dame team get into the NCAA tournament this season.

They were bumped out of the field when Davidson upset Rhode Island and earned the Atlantic 10’s third bid to the league tournament. The Fighting Irish were NIT bound, and in their second round loss to Penn State late last week, Colson reinjured the left foot that held him out of action for eight weeks.

On Wednesday, Yahoo reported that Colson suffered another fracture in the foot.

“I’m sitting there and he’s limping off and I’m going, ‘You gotta be kidding me,’” coach Mike Brey said after the game. “Everything we’ve been through? I thought we were out of the woods with him.”

There was a poignant moment at the end of the game.

Colson’s injury came during the third quarter. He returned to the bench at Purcell Pavilion with ice on his foot after going into the locker room. With 30 seconds left and a loss imminent, Colson walked right past Mike Brey, said “I’m going in”, and finished his college career on the court.

Colson is a potential second round pick. He was an all-american last year and a preseason selection this year. He was averaging 19.7 points, 10.2 boards and 2.2 blocks when he was injured.

N.C. State star to consider turning pro and transferring

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It appears as it Omer Yurtseven’s time as a member of the N.C. State Wolfpack will be coming to a close.

On Wednesday morning, the program issued a release announcing that Yurtseven has “expressed his intentions to either pursue a professional career or consider transferring.”

Yurtseven, who was initially recruited by Mark Gottfried, averaging 14.9 points in his first season under new Wolfpack head coach Kevin Keatts while also shooting 46 percent from three. Yurtseven is projected as a second round-at-best pick in the NBA Draft.

Keatts announced that he would grant Yurtseven a release if it comes to that.

2018 NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Preview: Ranking the eight games

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The Sweet 16 is going to kick off in less than 36 hours, which means that it is time for us to dive into the matchups and the games themselves.

Here are the eight games that we have on the docket on Thursday and Friday, with an in-depth look at each one, including some analysis on betting lines and how I expect each game to play out.

8. No. 2 DUKE vs. No. 11 SYRACUSE, Friday 9:37 p.m.

  • Line: Duke -11.5
  • O/U: 133.5
  • Projected score: Duke 72.5, Syracuse 61

All the zone! Syracuse has been playing a 2-3 zone for as long as Jim Boeheim has been a surly, bespectacled basketball coach. But now, Duke is doing the same thing! They couldn’t guard anyone when Marvin Bagley III and Wendell Carter were forced to run around on the perimeter, guarding small fours and switching ball-screens, but now that Duke is in this zone, they can fully take advantage of their size without having to worry about dealing with the mismatches at the other end.

I think Duke runs away with this. For starters, they have better perimeter shooters than they get credit for — both Grayson Allen and Gary Trent Jr. can stroke it — and Bagley and Carter are both skilled and versatile enough to be killers at the high-post. Throw in that Duke is the nation’s best offensive rebounding team and Syracuse gets annihilated on the defensive glass, and I think the Blue Devils roll.

PICKS: Duke and the under. Betting Duke unders has been very profitable of late, mainly because it took a while for the public to catch up to the pace — and defense — that Duke was playing with this zone. And Syracuse? They’re not much different than Virginia, only they play a zone instead of a 2-3 (and win in the tournament … too soon?) so while 133.5 is low, I would still hammer the under here. I think this ends up somewhere around a 75-55 game. When they played in Cameron a month ago, the final score was 60-44 Duke.

7. No. 4 GONZAGA vs. No. 9 FLORIDA STATE, Thursday 10:07 p.m.

  • Line: Gonzaga -5.5
  • O/U: 153.5
  • Projected score: Gonzaga 79.5, Florida State 74

This Florida State team is not like the Florida State teams that you remember from Leonard Hamilton. In the past, Hamilton has seemingly recruited every big body that he can possibly find to pack into the paint and defend like hell while struggling to buy a bucket. This team? They have a slew of talented guards, they love to get out and run in transition and they’ll even play some small-ball.

To be honest, I think that will play into Gonzaga’s hands. The Zags have enough athletic and mobile big men to be able to handle any kind of matchup, particularly when Rui Hachimura is playing the way he has of late. The big question I have is for Josh Perkins and Silas Melson. They were not their best during the first weekend, and if they are not their best Gonzaga is only going to go so far relying on both Rui and Zach Norvell to have career performances.

PICKS: I do think Gonzaga wins, although I don’t love that line. What I do think is a sneaky-good bet is the over. The line is 153.5 while KenPom projects it at 158 points.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

6. No. 5 KENTUCKY vs. No. 9 KANSAS STATE, Thursday 9:37 p.m.

  • Line: Kentucky -5.5
  • O/U: 138.5
  • Projected score: Kentucky 72, Kansas State 66.5

Let’s pretend that Florida game three weeks ago — the one that happened in the regular season finale for the Wildcats — never happened. Erase that from your memory, and the Wildcats have won their last nine games, and many of them in impressive fashion. They’re defending at the same level they’ve guarded all year long, but with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander playing the way that he has over the course of the last two months and Kevin Knox seemingly finding more consistency, I do think that Kentucky is playing as well as anyone left in this tournament not named Villanova or Duke.

The big question here is the health of Dean Wade. He told reporters after the win over UMBC that he would be playing on Thursday night, but we’ll see if that comes to fruition. If he does play, I can’t imagine that he’ll be at 100 percent.

PICKS: If Wade plays at 100 percent, I like Kentucky here. If Wade doesn’t play or is limited, I love Kentucky. I just think the Blue Wildcats are bigger, more athletic and more talented than Kansas State at every position, and that’s not good. Even if they guard Kentucky well, they are going to get killed on the defensive glass.

5. No. 1 KANSAS vs. No. 5 CLEMSON, Friday 7:07 p.m.

  • Line: Kansas -4.5
  • O/U: 143
  • Projected score: Kansas 73.75, Clemson 69.25

I have, not once this season, believed in Clemson. Not once. And every time I don’t believe in them — in the preseason, after Donte Grantham got injured, heading into the NCAA tournament — they do something to make me look like an idiot for not believing in them. So guess what? I’m not believing in them again!

Let me rephrase that. It’s not that I don’t believe in Clemson. I’ll admit it. I messed up. They’re really good; you have to be really good to beat the SEC regular season co-champions by 41 points. But I think that the way to beat Kansas is to be able to beat them up in the paint. Take advantage of the fact that they play Svi Mykhailiuk at the four. Clemson doesn’t really do that, so I think Kansas scoots on by Clemson to face Duke in the Midwest Regional final.

PICKS: Here’s the interesting thing about this game: The line is Kansas -4.5, and the projection on KenPom is Kansas -1. Generally speaking, those are inefficiencies to capitalize on, and it makes me want to take Clemson and the points even though my gut says go the other way. When that happens, I tend to stay away.

4. No. 7 NEVADA vs. No. 11 LOYOLA-CHICAGO, Thursday 7:07 p.m.

  • Line: Nevada -1.5
  • O/U: 143.5
  • Projected score: Nevada 72.5, Loyola-Chicago 71

I think the worst thing that could have happened to Loyola-Chicago was for Nevada to win the way they won the last two games. It basically came down to Eric Musselman having guys on his roster that could makes play and didn’t care what the scoreboard said or the pressure of the moment. And now those dudes are confident.

Loyola is a good, well-coached basketball team. They execute offensively, they shoot the leather off the ball and they clearly have God on their side with Sister Jean. But I would not want to play this Nevada team with the Martin twins, Jordan Caroline and Kendell Stephens in this kind of a rhythm.

PICKS: Give me the Wolf Pack. They were able to make shots on both Texas and Cincinnati, who were two of the very best defensive teams in the country this season. Playing against Loyola, who is a good defensive team in their own right, will feel like every shot is wide-open as a result. I’d lean the under here, but I probably will stay away myself.

3. No. 3 MICHIGAN vs. No. 7 TEXAS A&M, Thursday 7:37 p.m.

  • Line: Michigan -2.5
  • O/U: 136
  • Projected score: Michigan 69.25, Texas A&M 66.75

This is a fascinating contrast in lineup builds. Michigan doesn’t have all that much size inside but is, instead, built on their ability to limit opponent possessions and stifle the ones they do get; they don’t turn the ball over, they don’t give up offensive rebounds and they are the best defensive team left in the tournament according to KenPom. The Aggies are absolutely massive upfront but have had questionable guard play all season long.

Here’s what I think the key will be: Zavier Simpson vs. T.J. Starks. Simpson can erase a point guard from a game, and Starks is a freshman that has been, at times, erasable. Will he be able to get the ball to Big Bob Williams and Tyler Davis where they can be effective? Will Simpson, and Moe Wagner, be able to create enough in John Beilein’s ball-screen offense to score on one of the nation’s top ten defensive teams?

PICKS: I think they will. I think Michigan muddies this game up, their perimeter pressure prevents A&M from getting any kind of rhythm going and they do enough offensively and on the defensive glass to win a rock fight. Michigan and the under.

Keenan Evans (John Weast/Getty Images)

2. No. 2 PURDUE vs. No. 3 TEXAS TECH, Friday 9:57 p.m.

  • Line: Purdue -1.5
  • O/U: 137.5
  • Projected score: Purdue 69.5, Texas Tech 68

What makes this game so interesting to me is that we don’t really know what Matt Painter has up his sleeve. I’m operating under the assumption that Isaac Haas isn’t playing, and that even if he does, we’re looking at a situation where he is out there for limited minutes as a motivation tool more than his usual self. I don’t care how good your brace is, imagine shooting jump-hooks with a broken elbow. I don’t see it.

Painter will have had three or four days to figure out an answer, and my guess is that they use more spread pick-and-rolls, looking to get Haarms rolling with four shooters around him. Texas Tech should actually matchup with that pretty well — I’d be more concerned about them trying to slow down Haas one-on-one on the block — given their athleticism. Hell, I could see them using lineups with Zach Smith at the five quite a bit. They also have the ultimate trump card in Keenan Evans, who has been one of the best closers in college basketball this season.

PICKS: Texas Tech with the points. The Red Raiders are good at chasing teams off of the three-point line, they matchup well with Purdue and they are, according to KenPom, the second-best defensive team left in the tournament. The best — Michigan — beat Purdue pretty handily in the Big Ten tournament title game three weeks ago. If forced to, I’d bet the under here.

1. No. 1 VILLANOVA vs. No. 5 WEST VIRGINIA, Friday 7:27 p.m.

  • Line: Villanova (-5.5)
  • O/U: 152.5
  • Projected score: Villanova 79, West Virginia 73.5

I love Jevon Carter. I have the utmost respect for what Bob Huggins has been able to do with this West Virginia program. While what he does is the polar opposite from what Tony Bennett does at Virginia, the way they do it is not all that dissimilar: They find and recruit players that are going to buy into the program, that fit what they want to do and then, over the course of four or five years, develop them into stars. Some become pros. Most don’t. But they keep winning games.

But the reason that Press Virginia works is that their defensive identity speeds opponents up and forces them to make mistakes. No one is speeding Jalen Brunson up. No one is going to rattle him. Villanova doesn’t make mistakes. They don’t turn the ball over. But they do make a ton of threes, and what I’m picturing in my head is Jay Wright’s club breaking this West Virginia pressure with relative ease and getting open three after open three at the other end.

PICKS: I think Villanova covers fairly easily. The question here is whether or not you think West Virginia is going to keep their press on for the whole game. If they don’t — if they settle into a half-court defense or play a token, full-court man-to-man — then Villanova sometimes takes the air out of the ball. I’d bet the over, but I’m not entirely confident in that.

2018 NBA Draft Early Entry List: Who declared? Who is returning? Who are we waiting on?

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Here is a full list of the players that have signed with an agent, declared and are testing the waters and those that have decided to return to school.

We also and a long — but probably not complete — list of players that we are still waiting to hear from.





MILES BRIDGES, Michigan State
TONY CARR, Penn State
TERENCE DAVIS, Mississippi
JACOB EVANS, Cincinnati
ETHAN HAPP, Wisconsin
DJ HOGG, Texas A&M
ARIC HOLMAN, Mississippi State
JAREN JACKSON, Michigan State
SAGABA KONATE, West Virginia
KEVIN KNOX, Kentucky
MATUR MAKER, High School
LANDRY SHAMET, Wichita State
RAY SPALDING, Louisville
MOE WAGNER, Michigan