College Hoops Preview: 10 programs on the rise heading into ’12-’13

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Throughout the month of October, CollegeBasketballTalk will be rolling out our previews for the 2012-2013 season. Check back at 9 a.m. and just after lunch every day, Monday-Friday, for a new preview item.

To browse through the preview posts we’ve already published, click here. To look at the rest of The Lists we’ve published, click here. For a schedule of our previews for the month, click here.

NC State: There are three schools located in what’s known as “the Triangle” in North Carolina: UNC, Duke and NC State. Two of those programs — UNC and Duke — have long been considered the most dominant programs in the ACC, while NC State has played the role of the little brother that can’t hang. Herb Sendek got the Wolfpack to five straight NCAA tournaments during his last five seasons at the school, but if you factor out his time there, NC State’s trip to the Sweet 16 in 2012 was their first appearance in the NCAA tournament since 1991 and only their second trip past the first weekend since 1989. That all changes this season, as Mark Gottfried has done in 18 months what Sidney Lowe, Leo Robinson and, frankly, Sendek were all unable to: he’s turned NC State back into a national power.

Lorenzo Brown and CJ Leslie both return for their junior seasons. Scott Wood, Richard Howell and Jordan Vandenburg all are back as well. But, more importantly, Gottfried brings in one of the strongest recruiting classes in the country as he adds guards Tyler Lewis and Rodney Purvis and wing forward TJ Warren. Gottfried also has a commitment from top ten recruit Cat Barber in the Class of 2013. NC State has one of the most passionate and die-hard fan-bases in the country. They finally have something to get excited about heading into the season. And if all goes to plan, they’ll have some bragging rights around The Triangle come March.

UMass: UMass basketball history is limited to, more or less, two people. Julius Erving played for the Minutemen from 1968-1971 before going on to become Dr. J. The other person is John Calipari, who took over a program in 1988 that had 10 straight losing seasons. In his fourth year, he led UMass to the Atlantic 10 regular season and tournament titles, advancing to the NCAA tournament. He would accomplish that feat for five consecutive years, which culminated in his run to the 1996 Final Four, riding on the shoulders of Marcus Camby, before leaving the program. Bruiser Flint took over and led the Minutemen to two more NCAA tournaments, but they’ve only won one A-10 title — the 2007 regular season — since then. Outside of those seven consecutive NCAA tournaments, UMass has been to one. Ever. In 1962.

That could change this season, as Derek Kellogg has put together arguably the best team in Amherst since the late 90’s. The Minutemen return all but one member of their rotation from last season, including Chaz Williams, who is one of the most exciting and underrated point guards in the country. They also bring back Sampson Carter and Cady Lalanne, both of whom were injured for much of last season. The Atlantic 10 is going to be a rugged league this season, but UMass has the horses to make a run at a top four finish.

Iowa: The Hawkeyes have only had two NCAA tournament appearances in the last decade, none since 2006. In fact, last year’s trip to the NIT was the first time the Hawkeyes advanced to a postseason tournament of any kind since 2006. But with Aaron White, Roy Devyn Marble and Melsahn Basabe all returning to a team that only loses two rotation players (yes, one was Matt Gatens, I know), the future for the Hawkeyes looks promising. And that’s before you factor in the addition of a very strong freshmen class, including top 100 recruit Mike Gesell and Adam Woodbury.

Colorado State: Tim Miles left the cupboard quite full for new head coach Larry Eustachy. The Rams return their top seven scorers from a season ago (although Thursday brought news of starting guard Jesse Carr’s torn ACL), including the talented back court duo of Dorian Green and Wes Eikmeier. Those two will be joined by a former top 75 recruit and Arizona transfer Daniel Bejarano as well as Minnesota transfer Colton Iverson up front. The MWC is stacked up top this season, but CSU should be heading to their second straight NCAA tournament.

Stanford: The Cardinal were NCAA mainstays from the mid-90’s through 2008, when the Lopez twins and Trent Johnson all left the program. Johnny Dawkins took over, but he had a bit of a rebuilding job on his hands. After winning just 20 conference games in his first three seasons in Palo Alto, Dawkins led Stanford to a 26-11 overall record, a 10-8 finish in the Pac-12 and an NIT title. With Chasson Randle, Aaron Bright and Dwight Powell returning and a talented recruiting class coming in, is this the year that Dawkins finally breaks through?

Colorado: The Buffaloes were one of the nation’s most surprising teams in 2011-2012, parlaying a strong showing in league play to a run through the Pac-12 tournament and a trip to the Round of 32 in the NCAA tournament. That was just their third trip to the Big Dance since 1969 and only the second since Chauncey Billups left the program in 1997. Colorado may not make a return trip to the dance this season, as they lose four of their top six scorers from a season ago. But they do get Andre Roberson and promising sophomore Askia Booker back. They also bring in a solid recruiting class. Last year was a more successful season that most could have expected from Colorado, and sliding back to their original trajectory this season is not a disappointment.

Tennessee: Would you be surprised if I told you that Tennessee finished tied for second in the SEC last season? Because they did, albeit they finished at 10-6 in league play along with four other teams, but the point remains — the Volunteers made the climb back to relevancy awfully quickly. And they just might be the second best team in the conference again. Trae Golden is underrated at the point while Jeronne Maymon and Jarnell Stokes provide more bulk up front than just about anyone they’ll face. Oh, and Stokes? He averaged 9.6 points and 7.4 boards despite joining the team in the middle of the season when he was supposed to be finishing up his senior year of high school. If Cuonzo Martin can find some perimeter shooting to go along with those three, Tennessee will be just fine.

North Texas: Tony Mitchell is the name everyone thinks of when this North Texas team is mentioned, and that’s fair. There aren’t a lot of lottery picks that make their way through Denton, TX. But the fact of the matter is that this program is growing around him as well. Sophomore TJ Taylor was signed by both Oklahoma and Marquette before winding up at UNT. Senior Roger Franklin started his career at Oklahoma State. Jordan Williams (So.), Chris Jones (So.) and Alzee Williams (Jr.) are all talented perimeter players with plenty of eligibility left. This program has a chance to make some noise in Conference USA when leave the Sun Belt.

Delaware: There are three names you need to remember when it comes to the Blue Hens: Devon Saddler, Jamelle Hagins and Jarvis Threat. Saddler is a junior that could end up averaging more than 20 points. Hagins is a senior big man that not only averaged a double-double last season, but chipped in with three blocks as well. Threat is a sophomore that posted double figures as a rookie and has quite a bit of hype heading into the season. This will be the year for Delaware to make a run.

Fresno State: The Bulldogs are probably still a year or two away, but there is no denying the amount of talent entering into this program. Former Kansas signee Braeden Anderson, who was ineligible last year, will be able to play at the school this season, as will Robert Upshaw, a top 75 recruit that originally signed with Kansas State. Those two alone should give Fresno State one of the best front lines in the conference in the near future. Add in Pacific transfer Allen Huddleston, three-star recruits Broderick Newbill and Marvelle Harris, and Cezar Guerrero (an Oklahoma State transfer that will be eligible next season), and the Bulldogs will be more than just competitive in the MWC.

Five more programs heading in the right direction: Minnesota, USC, South Florida, Rhode Island, Oklahoma State

Rob Dauster is the editor of the college basketball website Ballin’ is a Habit. You can find him on twitter @robdauster.

No. 12 Oklahoma closes Big 12 gap on No. 5 Kansas behind Trae Young’s 26

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If you’re simply looking at the stat line, it would seem like Tuesday night’s win over No. 5 Kansas was a typical Trae Young game.

The star point guard for No. 12 Oklahoma finished with 26 points, nine assists, four boards, two steals and five turnovers, which is roughly what he has averaged throughout the season. The difference here, however, was that Young, just three days removed from taking 39 shots in a loss at Oklahoma State and less than a week removed from turning the ball over 12 times in a loss at Kansas State, shot the ball just nine times.

He was 7-for-9 from the floor. He was 2-for-3 from three and 10-for-12 from the line. He was more focused on distributing the ball and getting his teammates involved than he has been in any game this season, and the result was a critical, 85-80 win over the Jayhawks.

Oklahoma entered Tuesday night trailing Kansas by two games in the conference along with … well, everyone else: West Virginia, Texas Tech, Kansas State. This was the second loss the Jayhawks have taken in the Big 12 and it means that their lead over the field was cut in half.

Put another way, an outright regular season title is still a possibility for Oklahoma — and everyone else chasing Kansas.

There’s no two ways around it. This was a massive win and an excellent performance from Young.

The question I have is whether or not this version of The Trae Young Show is something that is sustainable for Oklahoma in the long-term.

Because I’m not sure that it is.

The narrative coming out of this game is going to be that Young, having lost a pair of road games in a league where no one wins on the road, came home and beat the conference favorites after Selfish Trae Young morphed into Unselfish Trae Young. And credit where it is due, Young made an active and impressive decision to get everyone else on the roster involved. He played differently, no one is disputing that.

But I’d argue that Lon Kruger’s decision to foul Udoka Azubuike on four possessions in the final four minutes — and Bill Self’s decision to leave Azubuike in the game — is what changed this game. Azubuike is a 41 percent free throw shooter that missed six straight free throws, two of which were front-ends, after a Malik Newman layup gave Kansas a 78-74 lead with 4:02 left. The Jayhawks would score just a single basket the rest of the game, one of only three possessions they had in those four minutes when the game wasn’t in doubt and Azubuike wasn’t on the free throw line.

That had as much to do with Oklahoma’s game-ending 11-2 run as anything else.

I also think it’s important to note that, on Saturday, Oklahoma’s supporting cast shot 14-for-43 from the floor and 2-for-15 from three. On Tuesday night, they were 21-for-48 (43.8%) from the field and 7-for-20 (35%) from three. That’s an improvement, there is no question about that, but it’s not a better or more efficient offensive option than asking Young to be aggressive is. Put another way, it’s not selfish to shoot a lot if your shots are the best way for your team to score.

Kruger needed to reel Young in a little bit after last week.

No one is going to argue that.

As I wrote here, Young needs to trust his teammates more and his teammates need to give him more reason to trust them. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that, on Oklahoma’s final two possessions, Young found Christian James and then Brady Manek for the go-ahead and game-sealing threes. Compare that to the Oklahoma State, when Young forced deep threes over multiple defenders at the end of regulation and overtime, possessions where the Sooners could have won the game at the buzzer.

But I also think we can all agree that for Oklahoma to reach their ceiling, they cant make a habit out of James, Manek and Kameron McGusty taking 29 shots and Young getting just nine.

Because this win, as important as it was, was not Oklahoma’s ceiling, not unless you think a home win aided by intentional fouls against a good-but-far-from-great Kansas team that saw their best player shoot 4-for-19 from the floor is super-impressive.

Blowout result says more about No. 2 Virginia than No. 18 Clemson

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After the first 11 minutes of Tuesday night’s trip to Charlottesville, No. 18 Clemson led No. 2 Virginia 20-14.

Over the course of the final 29 minutes of that game, the Tigers would muster all of 16 points, getting battered by a Tony Bennett defense that has done the same to many a foe that walked into John Paul Jones Arena and losing by the final score of 61-36.

With senior forward Donte Grantham suffering a torn ACL in Saturday’s win over Notre Dame, No. 18 Clemson entered Tuesday’s matchup with No. 2 Virginia without its second-leading scorer and one of its top three-point shooters as well.

Dealing with Bennett’s pack-line defense is hard enough with a full roster; to do so without an important option the caliber of Grantham makes the task that much more difficult.

For Clemson, the loss was a harsh reminder that the margin for error became much smaller the moment Grantham went down on Saturday against Notre Dame. Marquise Reed, Shelton Mitchell and Elijah Thomas have all been key contributors for the Tigers this season, a big reason why Brad Brownell presides over a team that has looked the part of an NCAA tournament participant for much of this season.

Against Virginia that trio combined to score eight points, with Reed responsible for six. If not for the play of Gabe DeVoe II, who scored all 11 of his points in the first half, and freshman forward Aamir Simms, one could argue that Clemson would have found it difficult to score 30 points against the Virginia defense.

Without Grantham, Clemson can ill-afford to have its remaining key offensive options struggle as Reed, Thomas and Mitchell did Tuesday night. Thomas had issues finding looks against Virginia’s interior defenders, and it wasn’t simply because of the Cavaliers’ ability to double the post as well as any team in the country. There were other times in which Virginia didn’t double, and the likes of Wilkins (when he was healthy enough to play), Jack Salt and Mamadi Diakite all got the job done when called upon.

As a result Thomas, who entered the game averaging 11.1 points per contest and shooting better than 62 percent from the field, had as many turnovers as field goal attempts: three. Mitchell was in a similar position, missing all three of his shot attempts and turning the ball over three times, and even with his 11 points the aforementioned DeVoe was responsible for five turnovers.

The first game after losing a key player can be tough for a team, as the remaining options are adjusting to either new or increased responsibilities. So while Tuesday’s result does say something about Clemson’s margin for error moving forward, it says even more about Virginia’s status as not only an ACC title contender (they’re now 8-0 in league play) but also a national title contender as well.

The cynics will see that and jump to say that we’ve been here before, that Virginia still has something to prove come NCAA tournament time. That’s fine, and Virginia did experience some lulls offensively in the first half against Clemson that they can’t afford if they’re to leave Duke with a win Saturday.

But when a team defends as well as Virginia can, they’ll give themselves a shot in just about any game. And when Virginia really buckled down defensively against Clemson, it largely occurred without the services of a player in Wilkins who rates among the best defensive players in college basketball.

Diakite may have scored just two points, but more importantly he finished with three blocked shots and two steals. Ty Jerome, Kyle Guy and Devon Hall combined for nine steals, and forwards Jack Salt and DeAndre Hunter chipped in as well. Some may want to focus on the lack of a guy who can score 25-plus points every night, but when a team defends as well as Virginia does should that “deficiency” be held against them?

We’ll learn even more about Virginia on Saturday, but underrate their chances of reaching the Final Four at your own peril.

No. 22 Tennessee hangs on to beat Vanderbilt 67-62

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KNOXVILLE, Tenn. (AP) — Jordan Bowden scored 19 points, Lamonte’ Turner hit a huge 3-pointer and No. 22 Tennessee nearly blew a 20-point second-half lead before hanging on for a 67-62 victory over Vanderbilt on Tuesday night.

Tennessee (14-5, 5-3 Southeastern Conference) earned its fifth win in six games and withstood a brilliant performance from Vanderbilt’s Riley LaChance, who scored all of his 25 points in the second half.

After trailing 41-21 with 14½ minutes left, Vanderbilt (7-13, 2-6) cut Tennessee’s lead to 60-58 when Jeff Roberson made one of two free-throw attempts with 1:19 remaining. Turner answered by sinking a 3-pointer with 1:03 left.

LaChance missed a 3-point attempt on Vanderbilt’s next possession to set up a layup by Bowden that extended Tennessee’s lead to 65-58 with 33 seconds left. Tennessee’s lead wouldn’t drop below five the rest of the way.

Grant Williams scored 19 points for Tennessee, two weeks after compiling 37 points in a 92-84 triumph at Vanderbilt. Roberson had 21 points for the Commodores.

Vanderbilt announced before the game that senior guard Matthew Fisher-Davis would miss the rest of the season with an injured right shoulder. Fisher-Davis has made 70 career starts and was averaging 11.9 points per game to rank second on the team.

The Commodores were seeking to beat Tennessee in Knoxville for a fourth straight season, but poor shooting nearly knocked Vanderbilt out of contention early.

Vanderbilt’s Payton Willis made a 3-pointer 40 seconds into the game to open the scoring, but the Commodores missed their next 17 3-point attempts. Tennessee closed the first half on a 14-2 run to grab a 32-15 halftime lead and then scored the first two points of the second half on a basket by Kyle Alexander.

Tennessee led 46-28 with 12 minutes remaining before LaChance got Vanderbilt back into the game almost single-handedly.

LaChance went 4 of 4 from 3-point range in a span of 2½ minutes and ended up scoring 15 straight Vanderbilt points as the Commodores crept closer. Vanderbilt made eight consecutive shots at one point while Tennessee went over seven minutes without a basket.

BIG PICTURE

Vanderbilt: The Commodores showed plenty of fight to get back into the game on the night that they announced Fisher-Davis wouldn’t play again this year. But the first half also showed how hard it is for Vanderbilt to find offense when its 3-point shots aren’t falling. Vanderbilt fell to 1-2 since Fisher-Davis’ injury.

Tennessee: Bowen scored just two points in a loss at Missouri and went scoreless in a victory at South Carolina last week, but he broke out of his slump. Bowden shot 5 of 7 from 3-point range and 6 of 10 from the floor.

UP NEXT

Vanderbilt hosts TCU on Saturday.

Tennessee is at Iowa State on Saturday.

___

More AP college basketball: https://collegebasketball.ap.org and https://twitter.com/AP_Top25

Paschall scores 17, leads No. 1 Villanova past Providence

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PHILADELPHIA (AP) — Jay Wright gave his NFC championship game tickets to his kids. They sent Wright and his wife photos from the Philadelphia Eagles’ romp over the Vikings and texted updates on all the fun they had at the Linc.

Who wouldn’t want to ditch the parents to root on the Birds?

Even Villanova’s coach knows the top team in the nation is no match in Philly fandom compared to the team in green.

With Philadelphia swept up in a Super Bowl frenzy, No. 1 Villanova showed again why city sports fans can also brag about having the best team in college basketball. Just across the street from where the Eagles clinched a Super Bowl berth, the Wildcats used a 22-2 run in the first half to cruise to their sixth straight win, 89-69 over Providence on Tuesday night.

The Wildcats (19-1, 6-1 Big East) are the only program in the AP Top 25 that plays in the shadow of four major pro teams that share a sports complex.

Philly is an Eagles city. The Wildcats, even with the 2016 national championship, are just along for the ride.

Villanova was forced to play this season at the Wells Fargo Center, home of the NBA’s 76ers, because of renovations at its on-campus arena. The Wildcats improved to 7-0 in their temporary digs, even though the 20,000-seat arena drew only an announced 8,595 fans.

“It’s starting to feel like this is our home court,” Wright said.

Interest in college hoops doesn’t really pick up around town until the Eagles’ season is over. The Wildcats might have three more wins by the time fans start paying attention on Feb 5 — give or take a possible parade date.

Eric Paschall led six Wildcats in double figures with 17 points, Omari Spellman had 16 and Jalen Brunson scored 15.

What the fans might have missed is Brunson, a first-team preseason All-American, playing his way into national player-of-the-year contention. The recent funk from Oklahoma’s Trae Young could open the door for the Nova guard to take home some postseason hardware. He entered the game tops on Villanova in scoring, third in the Big East in assists and third in the conference in 3-point accuracy.

The Wildcats had off on Sunday and a poor practice a day before the Big East matchup, and they started in a 24-15 hole.

“They try to use their speed and quickness and they definitely took advantage of that today,” Paschall said.

The Wildcats rallied to lead 39-30 at halftime. Donte DiVincenzo and Mikal Bridges hit consecutive 3-pointers to spark the decisive run. Spellman, the preseason Big East freshman of the year, had a three-point play when he tossed the ball up in the lane and it rolled around the rim before falling through the net.

The Friars (14-7, 5-3) missed eight straight field goals midway through the second half, and Brunson and Paschal hit 3s that stretched the lead and sent the Wildcats on their way to their sixth straight win against Providence.

“I like the way we played for about 22 minutes,” Providence coach Ed Cooley said. “Every mistake, they took advantage of. I was proud of our guys in some sequences, but the breakdowns really hurt us and they took total advantage of that.”

BIG PICTURE

Providence: The Friars’ career record vs. No. 1 teams fell to 2-15 and they dropped to 1-3 against Top 25 teams this season. Rodney Bullock was the top scorer with 16 points.

Villanova: Outside of their 22-2 run, the Wildcats didn’t really shoot that well. But the Wildcats entered tops in the Big East in scoring defense (64.8 points), and they kept Providence to 37 percent shooting from the floor. … Bridges had 11 points and nine rebounds. … Paschall and Bridges each had four steals.

HE SAID IT

Asked about the 22-2 run, Wright asked, “late?”

No, it only seemed like the Wildcats went on that kind of spurt in the second half.

“Oh, after we were down. Yeah, I didn’t know it was that much,” Wright said.

UP NEXT

Providence plays the middle of three straight road games Jan. 31 at Seton Hall.

Villanova plays Sunday against Marquette.

___

More AP college basketball: https://collegebasketball.ap.org and https://twitter.com/AP_Top25

Study shows troubling data on minority coaching hires

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Over the years, hiring practices within collegiate athletics have been a point of conversation especially when considering the job possibilities for minority candidates. According to a study done by Athletic Director U on coaching changes in Division I college basketball over a ten-year period beginning in 2008, there is still a lot of work to be done in both the men’s and women’s games.

Not only can that be said for the hiring of minority candidates, but also the lack of second chances for those candidates down the line.

The study was focused on 30 Division I college basketball conferences, with the MEAC and SWAC not included so as not to potentially skew the data given the fact that both are comprised entirely of Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs). Per Athletic Director U’s numbers, 72.4 percent of minority Division I men’s basketball coaches are fired or forced to resign compared to 59.9 percent of Caucasian coaches.

In the women’s game, 84.3 percent of the changes involving minority coaches coming as a result of a firing or forced resignation. And according to the data compiled, it’s extremely rare that a coaching job previously held by a minority coach is filled by another. In men’s college basketball only 7.2 percent of the changes were from one minority coach to another, with the number dropping to 4.8 percent in the women’s game.

By comparison, 66.7 percent of the hires in men’s college basketball and 75.4 percent of the hires in women’s college basketball were one Caucasian replacing another. Just over 26 percent of the coaches who were fired or forced to resign were replaced by the opposite in men’s basketball, with the number dropping to 19.8 percent in women’s basketball.

Per the numbers, not only has it remained more difficult for minority coaches to be afforded the opportunity to lead their own programs but it’s also been tough to get another shot should things not work out.

It’s long been stated that collegiate athletics had some issues to address with regards to the hiring of coaches, and based upon the study done by Athletic Director U it’s clear that there’s still a substantial amount of work to be done.